2024年科技趋势展望（英）.pdf

Technology Trends Outlook 2024July 2024McKinsey&CompanyMcKinsey&Company is a global management consulting firm,deeply committed to helping institutions in the private,public,and social sectors achieve lasting success.For more than 90 years,our primary objective has been to serve as our clients most trusted external adviser.With consultants in more than 100 cities in over 60 markets,across industries and functions,we bring unparalleled expertise to clients all over the world.We work closely with teams at all levels of an organization to shape winning strategies,mobilize for change,build capabilities,and drive successful execution.Insights across trends The AI revolution Generative AI Applied AI Industrializing machine learning Building the digital future Next-generation software development Digital trust and cybersecurity Compute and connectivity frontiers Advanced connectivity Immersive-reality technologies Cloud and edge computing Quantum technologies 4 13 14 20 25 30 31 36 43 44 49 54 59 65 66 71 7782 87 88 94 Cutting-edge engineering Future of robotics Future of mobility Future of bioengineering Future of space technologies A sustainable world Electrification and renewables Climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables Contents3Technology Trends Outlook 2024Insights across trendsDespite challenging overall market conditions in 2023,continuing investments in frontier technologies promise substantial future growth in enterprise adoption.Generative AI(gen AI)has been a standout trend since 2022,with the extraordinary uptick in interest and investment in this technology unlocking innovative possibilities across interconnected trends such as robotics and immersive reality.While the macroeconomic environment with elevated interest rates has affected equity capital investment and hiring,underlying indicatorsincluding optimism,innovation,and longer-term talent needsreflect a positive long-term trajectory in the 15 technology trends we analyzed.These are among the findings in the latest McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook,in which the McKinsey Technology Council identified the most significant technology trends unfolding today(to know more about the Council,see the sidebar“About the McKinsey Technology Council”).This research is intended to help executives plan ahead by developing an understanding of potential use cases,sources of value,adoption drivers,and the critical skills needed to bring these opportunities to fruition.Our analysis examines quantitative measures of interest,innovation,investment,and talent to gauge the momentum of each trend.Recognizing the long-term nature and interdependence of these trends,we also delve into the underlying technologies,uncertainties,and questions surrounding each trend.(For more about new developments in our research,please see the sidebar“Whats new in this years analysis”on page 9;for more about the research itself,please see the sidebar“Research methodology”on pages 1011.)New and notableThe two trends that stood out in 2023 were gen AI and electrification and renewables.Gen AI has seen a spike of almost 700 percent in Google searches from 2022 to 2023,along with a notable jump in job postings and investments.The pace of technology innovation has been remarkable.Over the course of 2023 and 2024,the size of the prompts that large language models(LLMs)can process,known as“context windows,”spiked from 100,000 to two million tokens.This is roughly the difference between adding one research paper to a model prompt and adding about 20 novels to it.And the modalities that gen AI can process have continued to increase,from text summarization and image generation to advanced capabilities in video,images,audio,and text.This has catalyzed a surge in investments and innovation aimed at advancing more powerful and efficient computing systems.The large foundation models that power generative AI,such as LLMs,are being integrated into various enterprise software tools and are also being employed for diverse purposes such as powering customer-facing chatbots,generating ad campaigns,accelerating drug discovery,and more.We expect this expansion to continue,pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities.Senior leaders awareness of gen AI innovation has increased interest,investment,and innovation in AI technologies and other trends,such as robotics,which is a new addition to our trends analysis this year.Advancements in AI are ushering in a new era of more capable robots,spurring greater innovation and a wider range of deployments.About the McKinsey Technology CouncilTechnology is a catalyst for new opportunities,from inventing new products and services,expanding the productivity frontier and capturing more value in our day-to-day work.The McKinsey Technology Council helps business leaders understand frontier technologies and the potential application to their businesses.We look at a spectrum of technologies,from generative AI,machine learning,and quantum computing to space technologies that are shaping new opportunities and applications.The McKinsey Technology Council convenes a global group of more than 100 scientists,entrepreneurs,researchers,and business leaders.We research,debate,and advise executives from all industries as they navigate the fast-changing technology landscape.Lareina Yee,senior partner,McKinsey;chair,McKinsey Technology Council4Technology Trends Outlook 2024Electrification and renewables was the other trend that bucked the economic headwinds,posting the highest investment and interest scores among all the trends we evaluated.Job postings for this sector also showed a modest increase.Although many trends faced declines in investment and hiring in 2023,the long-term outlook remains positive.This optimism is supported by the continued longer-term growth in job postings for the analyzed trends(up 8 percent from 2021 to 2023)and enterprises continued innovation and heightened interest in harnessing these technologies,particularly for future growth.In 2023,technology equity investments fell by 30 to 40 percent to approximately$570 billion due to rising financing costs and a cautious near-term growth outlook,prompting investors to favor technologies with strong revenue and margin potential.This approach aligns with the strategic perspective leading companies are adopting,in which they recognize that fully adopting and scaling cutting-edge technologies is a long-term endeavor.This recognition is evident when companies diversify their investments across a portfolio of several technologies,selectively intensifying their focus on areas most likely to push technological boundaries forward.While many technologies have maintained cautious investment profiles over the past year,gen AI saw a sevenfold increase in investments,driven by substantial advancements in text,image,and video generation.Despite an overall downturn in private equity investment,the pace of innovation has not slowed.Innovation has accelerated in the three trends that are part of the“AI revolution”group:generative AI,applied AI,and industrializing machine learning.Gen AI creates new content from unstructured data(such as text and images),applied AI leverages machine learning models for analytical and predictive tasks,and industrializing machine learning accelerates and derisks the development of machine learning solutions.Applied AI and industrializing machine learning,boosted by the widening interest in gen AI,have seen the most significant uptick in innovation,reflected in the surge in publications and patents from 2022 to 2023.Meanwhile,electrification and renewable-energy technologies continue to capture high interest,reflected in news mentions and web searches.Their popularity is fueled by a surge in global renewable capacity,their crucial roles in global decarbonization efforts,and heightened energy security needs amid geopolitical tensions and energy crises.The talent environment largely echoed the investment picture in tech trends in 2023.The technology sector faced significant layoffs,particularly among large technology companies,with job postings related to the tech trends we studied declining by 26 percenta steeper drop than the 17 percent decrease in global job postings overall.The greater decline in demand for tech-trends-related talent may have been fueled by technology companies cost reduction efforts amid decreasing revenue growth projections.Despite this reduction,the trends with robust investment and innovation,such as generative AI,not only maintained but also increased their job postings,reflecting a strong demand for new and advanced skills.Electrification and renewables was the other trend that saw positive job growth,partially due to public sector support for infrastructure spending.Even with the short-term vicissitudes in talent demand,our analysis of 4.3 million job postings across our 15 tech trends underscored a wide skills gap.Compared with the global average,fewer than half of potential candidates have the high-demand tech skills specified in job postings.Despite the year-on-year decreases for job postings in many trends from 2022 to 2023,the number of tech-related job postings in 2023 still represented an 8 percent increase from 2021,suggesting the potential for longer-term growth(Exhibit 1).+8%17%26%tech trends job postings from 2021 to 2023global job postings from 2022 to 2023tech trends job postings from 2022 to 20235Technology Trends Outlook 2024Climate technologies beyond electrifcation and renewablesIndustrializingmachine learningImmersive-reality technologiesFuture of mobilityApplied AINext-generationsoftwaredevelopmentFuture ofbioengineeringAdvancedconnectivityFuture ofroboticsQuantumtechnologiesFuture of space technologiesGenerativeAIDigital trust and cybersecurityElectrifcationand renewablesCloud and edgecomputing2021202320212023Annual change in tech trend job postings,202123,millions of postingsDespite a one-year drop in job postings,demand for jobs in many technology trends has increased over two years.Climate technologies beyond electrifcation and renewablesIndustrializingmachine learningImmersive-reality technologiesFuture of mobilityApplied AINext-generationsoftwaredevelopmentFuture ofbioengineeringAdvancedconnectivityFuture ofroboticsQuantumtechnologiesFuture of space technologiesGenerativeAIDigital trust and cybersecurityElectrifcationand renewables 1Out of 130 million surveyed job postings(extrapolated JanOct 2023).Job postings are not directly equivalent to numbers of new or existing jobs.Source:McKinseys proprietary Organizational Data Platform,which draws on licensed,de-identifed public professional profle dataMcKinsey&CompanyCloud and edgecomputing00.20.40.600.20.400.20.60.81.01.21.400.20.40.600.20.400.20.60.81.01.21.420212023Building the digital futureAI revolutionCompute and connectivityCutting-edge engineeringA sustainable world+52%change37%+49%34%+39%38%+77%36%202120222023Cumulative change in tech trend job postings,202123,millions of postings+6%23%+29%9%+110%+111%+29%20%+44%17%18%+18%+341%+3%+19%6%+20%+48%+73%5%change1%14%+14%+0%1%+33%29%+34%11%+55%5%+72%+1%+49%34%+39%38%+77%36%+32%24%+55%36%00.20.40.600.20.400.20.81.000.20.40.600.20.400.20.81.0Exhibit 1 6Technology Trends Outlook 2024Adoption curve of technology trends,adoption scoreTechnologies progress through diferent stages,with some at the leading edge of innovation and others approaching large-scale adoption.McKinsey&CompanyHigher adoptionLower adoptionWeb Exhibit of 1 Frontier innovation2 Experimenting3 Piloting4 Scaling5 Fully scaledAdoptionAdvanced connectivityApplied AICloud and edge computingGenerative AIDigital trust and cybersecurityElectrifcation and renewablesIndustrializing machine learningNext-gen software developmentClimate technologies beyond electrifcation and renewablesFuture of bioengineeringFuture of mobilityFuture of roboticsImmersive-reality technologiesFuture of space technologiesQuantum technologies4321Trend is more relevant to certain industries,resulting in lower overall adoption across industries compared with adoption within relevant industries.Source:McKinsey technology adoption survey data;McKinsey analysisExhibit 2Enterprise technology adoption momentum The trajectory of enterprise technology adoption is often described as an S-curve that traces the following pattern:technical innovation and exploration,experimenting with the technology,initial pilots in the business,scaling the impact throughout the business,and eventual fully scaled adoption(Exhibit 2).This pattern is evident in this years survey analysis of enterprise adoption conducted across our 15 technologies.Adoption levels vary across different industries and company sizes,as does the perceived progress toward adoption.We see that the technologies in the S-curves early stages of innovation and experimenting are either on the leading edge of progress,such as quantum technologies and robotics,or are more relevant to a specific set of industries,such as bioengineering and space.Factors that could affect the adoption of these technologies include high costs,specialized applications,and balancing the breadth of technology investments against focusing on a select few that may offer substantial first-mover advantages.As technologies gain traction and move beyond experimenting,adoption rates start accelerating,and companies invest more in piloting and scaling.We see this shift in a number of trends,such as next-generation software development and electrification.Gen AIs rapid advancement leads among trends analyzed,with about a quarter of respondents self-reporting that they are scaling its use.More mature technologies,like cloud and edge computing and advanced connectivity,continued their rapid pace of adoption,serving as enablers for the adoption of other emerging technologies as well(Exhibit 3).7Technology Trends Outlook 2024Self-reported adoption level by tech trend,2023,1%of respondents1Respondents may interpret these categories diferently based on their organizations.As such,the results should be considered as indicative of organizations self-assessments,rather than precise measurements.2For a deeper look at our AI-related trends,see“The state of AI in early 2024:Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value,”McKinsey,May 30,2024.Source:McKinsey technology adoption survey dataMore-mature technologies are more widely adopted,often serving as enablers for more-nascent technologies.McKinsey&CompanyExperimentingNot investingPilotingScalingFully scaledWeb Exhibit of 2217101181078554353141418181418171618161817221815253326263737373745464350414757131620211815192016182015192013262026242320201916151515131512Digital trust and cybersecurityNext-generation software development Future of space technologiesQuantum technologiesFuture of roboticsFuture of bioengineeringFuture of mobilityClimate technologies beyond electrifcation andrenewablesImmersive-reality technologiesIndustrializing machine learningElectrifcation and rene