2024-2028全球太阳能发电市场展望.pdf

G lob a l Ma rke t OutlookS up p orte d b y:www.sola rp owe re urop e.orgF OCU S ON CHI NAF or S ola r P owe r 2024-20283F o r e wo r d Wel come to the Gl obal Mar k et Outl ook for Sol ar Power 2024-2028.F or a n e sta b lishe d se c tor like sola r,a p p roa c hing d oub le growth in one ye a r wa s simp ly not p a rt of a ny a na lysts sc rip t.But it ha p p e ne d in 2023.T he world d e p loye d 447 G W of ne w sola r P V c a p a c ity la st ye a r;a n inc re d ib le 87%more tha n 2022 a nd a c hie ving a growth ra te we ha ve nt se e n sinc e 2010,whe n the glob a l sola r ma rke t wa s only 4%of tod a ys size.I n la st ye a rs G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook,we a c tua lly d id a ntic ip a te growth for se ve ra l re a sons,b ut not a s high a s wha t wa s a c hie ve d.At tha t time,a ve ry strong growth in glob a l ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s wa s a lre a d y visib le,ma king p rod uc ts a va ila b le a ga in a fte r the p re ssure s of the p a nd e mic a nd e ne rgy c risis.T his,of c ourse,a lso b rought ove rc a p a c ity e ffe c tive ly d oub ling sup p ly a ga inst d e ma nd.R e sulting p ric e d rop s trigge re d b y he fty c omp e tition from a ll the se ne w c a p a c itie s wa s e xp e c te d a s we ll(though not a t the se ve rity the ind ustry e ve ntua lly e xp e rie nc e d).I n fa c t,our growth fore c a st for a ll glob a l ma rke ts c omb ine d,othe r tha n China,wa s ne a rly sp ot on we d e via te d only b y 3%a b solute.T he a c c ura c y a nd va lue of the a nnua l G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook for S ola r P owe r would not b e p ossib le without the ind ustry sta ke hold e rs a nd a ll na tiona l a nd re giona l sola r ind ustry a ssoc ia tions tha t p rovid e the ir inp ut a nd e xp e rtise e a c h ye a r.We would like to e xte nd our gra titud e to those e xp e rts a nd the ir orga nisa tions in sup p orting our ma p p ing a nd mod e lling work,a nd p a rtic ula rly those from the 31 a nnua l G W-sc a le sola r ma rke ts tha t wrote in-d e p th fe a ture s of the ir home ma rke ts for this ye a rs e d ition(se e p.81).H owe ve r,the ma rke t tha t is c ontinua lly d iffic ult to a ntic ip a te re ma ins to b e China,the world s la rge st sola r ma rke t b y fa r,whic h b oome d b y 167%in a single ye a r.T his c ountry a lone wa s re sp onsib le for 57%of glob a l insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2023,a d d ing a qua rte r of a T W,b a sic a lly the sa me a mount tha t the e ntire world ha d d e p loye d in the p re vious ye a r.T he ma ssive p ric e c olla p se s of a round 50%for mod ule s in 2023 a lone trigge re d unfore se e n growth,d rive n b y p ric e e la stic ity on the d e ma nd sid e.T o b e tte r und e rsta nd sola r d e ve lop me nts in China,this ye a rs re p ort c ove rs the c ountry in a d e d ic a te d c ha p te r,p rovid e d b y the G lob a l S ola r Counc il a nd its p a rtne r the Chine se R e ne wa b le Ene rgy I nd ustrie s Assoc ia tion(CR EI A)(se e p.61).S o,wha ts in store for sola r this ye a r a nd b e yond?F or the sup p ly sid e,the P V ma nufa c turing ind ustry will c ontinue to suffe r from re c ord-low p ric e s a nd ove rc a p a c itie s how long will d e p e nd on the c onsolid a tion sp e e d in the se c tor.T he d e ma nd sid e will furthe r b e ne fit from low p rod uc t p ric e s tha t will sta y a ma in d rive r in a d iffic ult ma c ro-e c onomic e nvironme nt.We will se e the c lima te e me rge nc y c ontinuing to c a p ture gove rnme nts a tte ntion a nd e ne rgy se c urity re ma ining the ne w c omp e lling a rgume nt to inve st in sola r p owe r in a quic kly fra gme nting world ord e r.F urthe r d rive n b y c ost imp rove me nts a nd the nume rous b e ne fits the te c hnology p rovid e s,we ha ve inc re a se d our most like ly outlook to 544 G W in 2024,b a se d on a 22%Y oY growth,a nd low two-d igit imp rove me nts to a n a nnua l ma rke t of 876 G W in 2028.We ha ve b e e n he a ring d oub ts from ma ny a na lysts if sola r c a n grow muc h b e yond tod a ys a nnua l insta lla tion le ve ls.While ob viously the re will b e a n e ve ntua l limit,we d ont fore se e this a ny time soon.Who would ha ve thought tha t only a ye a r a go tha t China would insta ll ove r 250 G W la st ye a r?N ob od y!We should a lso re me mb e r,sola rs sha re in glob a l e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion wa s only a t 5.5%in 2023,China s insta lle d wa tt p e r c a p ita wa s 460 W/c,a nd MEA on a ve ra ge only 27 W/c,c omp a re d to 1,359 W/c in Austra lia the re s c le a rly quite some room to grow.F or the first time in our five-ye a r fore c a sting p e riod,our H igh S c e na rio is touc hing a n a nnua l T W d e p loyme nt ra te in 2028.While the P V ind ustry is re a d y for more,it now hinge s on p olic yma ke rs c re a ting the right le ga l fra me works to e na b le sola r in unfold ing its full p ote ntia l.T ha ts why,for the first time,this e d ition c onta ins p olic y re c omme nd a tions from sola rs glob a l ind ustry orga nisa tion,the G lob a l S ola r Counc il(se e p.57).T his inc lud e s a sks for se tting a mb itious na tiona l ta rge ts,a nd imme d ia te e fforts to unle a sh the fle xib ility re volution b y sc a ling up inve stme nts in b a tte ry stora ge,grid s,a nd e le c trific a tion.We a lso urge ntly ne e d d ive rsific a tion on b oth the sup p ly a nd d e ma nd sid e,a nd p le nty of fina nc ing.T o the se c tors gra tific a tion,the re c e nt I EA World Ene rgy I nve stme nt 2024 re p ort re ve a le d tha t inve stme nt in sola r surp a sse d a ll othe r ge ne ra tion te c hnologie s c omb ine d.H owe ve r,the re re ma ins se ve re d isp a rity in glob a l re ne wa b le inve stme nt flows.T wo third s of the world s p op ula tion,living in e me rging a nd d e ve lop ing e c onomie s outsid e China,only re c e ive d 15%of glob a l inve stme nt.L a st ye a rs CO P sa w world le a d e rs c ommitting to trip le world re ne wa b le s b y 2030 to a c hie ve 11 T W,a nd this ye a rs CO P 29 must a c c ord ingly se t the fina nc e p la n for the tra nsition for the c ountrie s most in ne e d.T he c lima te c risis,a nd b re a c hing 1.5C wa rming,is b a rre lling towa rd us like a fre ight tra in.We hop e this ye a rs G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook sup p orts the sola r se c tor in b uild ing a ne w tra c k towa rd more susta ina b le a nd se c ure p rosp e rity for a ll.Enj oy r eadi ng our Gl obal Mar k et Outl ook.WALBURGA HEMETSBERGER CEO,S ola rP owe r Europ eMICHAEL SCHMELA Exe c utive Ad visor a nd Dire c tor of Ma rke t I nte llige nc e,S ola rP owe r Europ eSONIA DUNLOP CEO,G lob a l S ola r Counc il G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20284P r o j e c t L e a d:Mic ha e l S c hme la,S ola rP owe r Europ e.P r o j e c t ma na ge r:R a ffa e le R ossi,S ola rP owe r Europ e.Ma r k e t i nte l l i ge nc e a nd i nte r na l c o-a uth o r s:Antonio Arrue b o,J ona tha n G orre ma ns,L e a h L e P nuizic,Christop he L its,R a ffa e le R ossi,&Mic ha e l S c hme la,S ola rP owe r Europ e.E xte r na l c o-a uth o r s:Ab d a lla h Alsha ma li,G lob a l S ola r Counc il(G S C);S te ve Blume,S ma rt Ene rgy Counc il(S EC);R od rigo L op e s S a ua ia&R a fa e l F ra nc isc o Ma rque s,Bra zilia n P hotovolta ic S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(ABS OL AR);Da vid R a u,Chile a n S ola r Assoc ia tion(ACES OL);Chine se P hotovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(CP I A);S ub ra hma nya m P ulip a ka&S hub ha ng P a re kh,N a tiona l S ola r Ene rgy F e d e ra tion of I nd ia (N S EF I);T a ke a ki Ma suka wa,J a p a n P hotovolta ic Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(J P EA);N e lson R.De lga d o Contre ra s,Me xic a n Assoc ia tion of S ola r Ene rgy(Asolme x);Wa qa s Moosa,P a kista n S ola r Assoc ia tion(P S A);T a nnishtha Da s&H ind e L ie p ma nnsohn,Mid d le Ea st S ola r I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(MES I A);De We t T a lj a a rd,S outh Afric a n P V I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(S AP V I A);Donggun L im,K ore a N a tiona l U nive rsity of T ra nsp orta tion;Da vid S tic ke lb e rge r,S wissola r;S huY u Y a ng,I nd ustria l T e c hnology R e se a rc h I nstitute (I T R I)&Da nie l L e e,T a iwa n P hotovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(T P V I A);T urkish S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(G N DER);G a re th S imkins,S ola r Ene rgy U K;S ola r Ene rgy I nd ustrie s Assoc ia tion(S EI A).E xte r na l c o ntr i b uto r s:P V Austria (AT);P V-V la a nd e re n&EDO R A(BE);AP S T E(BG);S olrn Asoc ia c e (CZ);BS W-S ola r(DE);Europ e a n Ene rgy,G re e n P owe r De nma rk&DP V A(DK);H EL AP CO(EL);U N EF (ES);S ER (F R);OI E(H R);MAN AP (H U);G EA-I L (I L);I S EA(I R);AN I E R innova b ili,Ele ttric it F utura&I ta lia S ola re (I T);L S EA(L T);H olla nd S ola r(N L);P S F&P V P ola nd (P L);AP R EN (P T);R P I A(R O);S ve nsk S ole ne rgi(S E);Z S F V (S I).S up p o r te d b y:I nte rsola r Europ e,G lob a l S ola r Counc il(G S C).P l e a s e c i te a s:S ola rP owe r Europ e (2024):Glo bal Market Outlo o k fo r So lar Po wer 2 02 4-2 02 8.F o r me d i a us e a nd q ue r i e s:Be tha ny Me b a n,S ola rP owe r Europ e,b.me b a nsola rp owe urop e.org.D a te o f p ub l i c a ti o n:J une 2024.I S BN:9789464669169.T h a nk s to o ur s p o ns o r me mb e r s:D e s i gn:One he misp he re AB,S we d e n.c onta c tone he misp he re.se C o nta c t:infosola rp owe re urop e.org.Me th o d o l o gy:S ola rP owe r Europ e s five-ye a r fore c a st c onsists of L ow,Me d ium a nd H igh S c e na rios.T he Me d ium sc e na rio a ntic ip a te s the most like ly d e ve lop me nt give n the c urre nt sta te of p la y of the ma rke t.T he L ow S c e na rio fore c a st is b a se d on the a ssump tion tha t p olic yma ke rs ha lt sola r sup p ort a nd othe r issue s a rise,inc lud ing inte re st ra te hike s a nd se ve re fina nc ia l c risis situa tions.Conve rse ly,the H igh S c e na rio fore c a sts the b e st op tima l c a se in whic h p olic y sup p ort,fina nc ia l c ond itions a nd othe r fa c tors a re e nha nc e d.S e gme nta tion is b a se d on the following syste m size:R e sid e ntia l(10 kW);Comme rc ia l(250 kW);I nd ustria l(1000 kW,ground-mounte d).S ola rP owe r Europ e s me thod ology inc lud e s only grid-c onne c te d syste ms.I nsta lle d c a p a c ity is a lwa ys e xp re sse d in DC,unle ss othe rwise sta te d.All figure s a re b a se d on S ola rP owe r Europ e s b e st knowle d ge a t the time of p ub lic a tion.D i s c l a i me r:T his re p ort ha s b e e n p re p a re d b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.I t is b e ing furnishe d to the re c ip ie nts for ge ne ra l informa tion only.N othing in it should b e inte rp re te d a s a n offe r or re c omme nd a tion of a ny p rod uc ts,se rvic e s or fina nc ia l p rod uc ts.T his re p ort d oe s not c onstitute te c hnic a l,inve stme nt,le ga l,ta x or a ny othe r a d vic e.R e c ip ie nts should c onsult with the ir own te c hnic a l,fina nc ia l,le ga l,ta x or othe r a d visors a s ne e d e d.T his re p ort is b a se d on sourc e s b e lie ve d to b e a c c ura te.H owe ve r,S ola rP owe r Europ e d oe s not wa rra nt the a c c ura c y or c omp le te ne ss of a ny informa tion c onta ine d in this re p ort.S ola rP owe r Europ e a ssume s no ob liga tion to up d a te a ny informa tion c onta ine d he re in.S ola rP owe r Europ e will not b e he ld lia b le for a ny d ire c t or ind ire c t d a ma ge inc urre d b y the use of the informa tion p rovid e d a nd will not p rovid e a ny ind e mnitie s.U nle ss othe rwise sta te d,the c op yright a nd othe r inte lle c tua l p rop e rty rights of ma rke t inte llige nc e d a ta a nd re sourc e s p rovid e d a re owne d b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.T a b l e o f c o nte ntsF o r e wo r d 3 E xe c uti v e s umma r y 6 1 Gl o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t 12 Update 2000-2023 17 Pr os pects 2024-2028 35 Segments 2023-2028 4 9 Sol ar outl ook to 2030 5 2 2 P o l i c y r e c o mme nd a ti o ns b y GS C 5 7 3 F o c us:C h i na s o l a r P V ma r k e t b y GS C 6 1 4 GW-s c a l e ma r k e ts 8 1Real-Time Solar Data and Power ModelingIndustry-leading accuracy.Proven reliability.Integration ready.Rely on SolarAnywhere accuracy and an enterprise-class API to scale your performance benchmarking and real-time monitoring.Visit to learn more and start a trial of SolarAnywhere SystemCheck real-time data.Real-Time Monitoring&Performance AssessmentSolar Resource Assessment&ProspectingIrradiance&Power ForecastingReal-time,weather-adjusted PV production estimates are critical for optimizing solar asset performance.Asset management and O&M teams are streamlining processes and reducing costs by integrating SolarAnywhere real-time solar data into their monitoring platforms.Take advantage of the accuracy,reliability and accessibility offered by the SolarAnywhere API.Get started at: nowcast solar data to achieve operational excellence Highly-accurate,globally available real-time data,trailing 45 days through current hour Rich,solar-speci昀c data elements such as irradiance,albedo,snow depth and more Conduct site-speci昀c energy simulations using open-source models such as pvlib Fully documented,stable,modern API architecture that is proven to meet rigorous enterprise requirementsG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20286In 2023,the wor l d gr i d-connected 4 4 7 GW of new s ol ar capaci ty,whi ch,once agai n,domi nated the newl y added gl obal power gener ati on capaci ty.Sol ar PV accounted for 7 8%out of 5 7 6 GW of new r enewabl e capaci ty added l as t year.Sol ar s s har e of new r enewabl e capaci ty i ncr eas ed cons i der abl y,up 12 per centage poi nts fr om the 6 6%contr i buted i n 2022 and 22 per centage poi nts mor e than the 5 6%i n 2021.Thi s new r ecor d confi r ms s ol ar s r ol e as an es tabl i s hed and s ti l l r i s i ng l eader of the gl obal ener gy tr ans i ti on,i ns tal l i ng over thr ee ti mes mor e capaci ty than al l other r enewabl e technol ogi es combi ned.E xe c uti v e s umma r y300 MW fi s her y-s ol ar pl ant,Shandong,Chi na.HuaweiFIGURE 1 NET R ENEWABL E P OWER GENER AT I NG CAP ACI T Y I NS T AL L ED I N 2023 Hydro:7 GW,1.2%Wind:117 GW,20%Other RE:1 GW,0.2%Biomass:4 GW,0.8%Solar:447 GW,78%576 GWSOURCES:GWEC(2024),I R EN A(2024),S ola rP owe r Europ e.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024T he 447 G W of ne w sola r c a p a c ity b roke a ny p re vious re c ord a nd fa r e xc e e d e d a ny sola r a na lysts e xp e c ta tions,ma rking a n e xtra ord ina ry 87%growth ra te (se e F ig.2).T his c omp a re s to 2022s a d d ition of 239 G W a nd 46%ye a r-on-ye a r growth.T he surge in insta lle d sola r c a p a c ity c a n b e a ttrib ute d to se ve ra l ke y fa c tors.F irstly,a signific a nt inc re a se in glob a l P V ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s gre a tly imp rove d the a va ila b ility of sola r mod ule s following the sup p ly c ha in issue s e xp e rie nc e d d uring the p a nd e mic.T his c a p a c ity e xp a nsion re sulte d in ove rc a p a c itie s a nd se ve re p ric e d rop s for syste m c omp one nts ove r the c ourse of 2023,wit