2020零碳排放汽车的材料路线.pdf

Forging Ahead A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon carC I R C U L A R C A R S I N I T I A T I V E M A T E R I A L SD E C E M B E R 2 0 2 0In Collaboration with McKinsey&CompanyContentsForewordLetter from McKinsey&Company and the World Economic ForumIntroduction1 Automotive materials2 The cost-effective path to materials decarbonization2.1 The abatement cost curve:a comprehensive view for the automotive industry2.2 Current cost-effective pathways for ICEVs and BEVs2.3 Steel and batteries have large decarbonization potential3 A path forward for the automotive ecosystem3.1 A strategic industry approach for effectively abating upstream emissions3.2 Collaboration on five key areas3.3 A consortium of automotive ecosystem players3.4 Possible pilotsAppendixKey model assumptionsThe three main categories of carbon abatementSensitivities of model resultsAcronymsContributorsAcknowledgementsEndnotes3457910 13151819 2021222323232425262728Cover:Getty Images 2020 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Forging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car2ForewordThe car has given us freedom.It has accelerated trade and made an indelible mark on modern culture and lifestyles.But cars are also responsible for 10%of greenhouse gas emissions and a large share of global steel,aluminium,plastic,rubber,glass and increasingly battery material consumption.It is now time for a revolution in automotive sustainability.The World Economic Forum and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development(WBCSD)jointly formed the Circular Cars Initiative to accelerate this transformation.The Initiative takes a systemic approach accounting for the build phase as well as the use phase to automotive sustainability.It looks at how technology and business levers can maximize the resource value of the car,minimize life-cycle emissions and unlock new opportunities.Within the Circular Car Initiative,40 companies from the automotive value chain,several research institutes,international organizations,governmental bodies and think tanks are charting the course towards a zero-emission future through new technology,materials innovation,efficient vehicle usage and full life-cycle management.We wish to thank Accenture under the leadership of Wolfgang Machur and Alexander Holst,and McKinsey under the direction of Fehmi Yksel and Eric Hannon,for their in-depth analysis and thought partnership on these topics.We are also appreciative of EIT Climate-KICs Sira Saccani and Kirsten Dunlop,and SYSTEMIQs Matthias Ballweg,Tillmann Vahle and Martin Stuchtey,for joining early on and for their ongoing work on policy recommendations.We also would not have come to this point at the end of 2020 without the leadership of Levi Tillemann at the World Economic Forum.The“circular car”is now on its way to becoming a core component of the automotive future.Thomas Deloison Director Mobility,World Business Council for Sustainable DevelopmentChristoph Wolff Global Head of Mobility and Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic ForumForging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car3Letter from McKinsey&Company and the World Economic ForumThe automotive industry has been a powerful driver of economic prosperity and individual mobility for almost 150 years.During this time,the industry has evolved dramatically and continually adapted to new technologies,business practices,opportunities and realities from mass production to new safety measures,to electrification and digitization.The next axis of transformation will be around the imperative to decarbonize.The scientific consensus is that limiting global warming to 1.5C by 2050 is essential to mitigate catastrophic climate risk.This goal is embodied in the Paris Agreements net-zero target.The automotive industry,which currently contributes over 10%of industrial emissions,must embrace life-cycle decarbonization to meet this moment.To date,decarbonization has focused on electrifying powertrains.Since exhaust emissions make up 80%of life-cycle emissions of a standard combustion engine vehicle,this makes sense.But electrification is not the sole answer to the decarbonization challenge.The automotive industry must also tackle emissions embedded in vehicle materials which will grow in importance in tandem with powertrain electrification.Materials used in vehicles already account for 1822%of internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)life-cycle emissions.The growing market share of battery-electric vehicles(BEVs)and the greener energy mix required to power them will increase materials share of automotive life-cycle emissions in both relative and absolute terms.The path towards electrifying powertrains is complex,but well understood.On the other hand,eliminating carbon emissions from automotive materials is a highly complex undertaking and a consensus regarding the technoeconomic pathway for full decarbonization has not yet emerged.We project that material emissions will surpass 60%of life-cycle emissions by 2040,assuming no reduction of emissions in automotive materials production.But there is good news.McKinseys abatement cost curve for automotive materials shows that in some pathways to decarbonization,by 2030 about 66%of material emissions of a representative ICEV could be abated at no net material cost increase.An even larger share of material emissions from BEVs could be decarbonized at no net cost increase.Fast-acting suppliers and original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)can realize this decarbonization potential while saving money in the process.The purpose of this report is to clarify the elements of this important task.Within the framework of the Circular Cars Initiatives(CCI)Materials Workstream,the World Economic Forum and McKinsey are collaborating with more than 70 partners from the entire automotive ecosystem1 to elucidate potential routes towards decarbonization.The centrepiece of the McKinsey teams analysis is McKinseys carbon abatement model,which details various materials decarbonization levers and scenarios.This analysis covers more than 90%of automotive material emissions.Our analysis has been deeply informed by the initiatives workshops and structured discussions with community members.There is a path to net zero and a bright future for companies that embrace this challenge.A large proportion of automotive material carbon emissions could be abated by 2030 at no net-cost increase.Many key technologies and sustainability solutions can be implemented today.However,success will depend on new collaboration models within and beyond the automotive ecosystem.There must be a fundamental rethinking of todays value chain and its incentives.The Circular Cars Initiative has already seen the willingness of many industry participants to embrace this future and join forces to pave a new road ahead for the zero-carbon car.Levi Tillemann Lead,Circular Cars Initiative,World Economic ForumBernd Heid Senior Partner,McKinsey&CompanyEric Hannon Partner,McKinsey&Company Forging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car4IntroductionThe term“circular car”refers to a theoretical vehicle that has maximized materials efficiency.This notional vehicle would produce zero material waste and zero pollution during manufacture,usage and disposal which differentiates it from todays zero-emission vehicles.While cars may never be fully“circular”,the automotive industry can significantly increase its degree of circularity.Doing so has the potential to deliver economic,societal and ecological dividends.Indeed,the convergence of technology,environmental and economic megatrends is propelling the modern automotive industry towards just such a transformation.The Circular Cars Initiative has assembled a broad coalition of participants from the automobility ecosystem committed to leading this transformation and increasing the environmental sustainability of global mobility by harnessing the power of new technologies,materials and business models.Sustainable cars must be powered by green electricity;circular economy principles need to govern both manufacture and use phase.Decarbonizing the carFIGURE 11.ICEV hatchback(level 1)with 1.70t weight(incl.repair components),0.90t steel,0.15t aluminium,0.29t plastics,200,000 life-cycle km and average occupancy of 1.52.BEV hatchback(level 1)with 1.90t weight(incl.repair components),0.70t steel,0.19t aluminium,0.32t plastics,0.32t EV battery,250,000 life-cycle km and average occupancy of 1.53.Requires decarbonization of electricity grid with additional renewable energy as per consumption requirement by BEVs4.Circular-economy innovations consider level 4 circular BEV(fully circular)Source:Accenture Strategy analysisBEVs use less energy in operation,but more in productionCarbon emissions per passenger km146124443Today1+Adoption of BEVs2+Low-carbon energy for use phase3+Circular-economy innovations4Materials,assembly and end-of-lifeUse phase-98%Shifting to low-carbon electricity for the use phase helps.but only circular-economy innovations can finish the jobThe Circular Cars Initiative(CCI)is comprised of three main workstreams:The materials workstream,led by McKinsey,is focused on the pressing need to decarbonize materials,institute closed-loop recycling and provide materials with a productive second life capturing value that today is downcycled into other industries(see Figure 2).The business models workstream is led by Accenture Strategy.Its work lays out a series of strategies for achieving circularity.In collaboration with the World Economic Forum,Accenture Strategy has developed a taxonomy to guide the industrys progress on carbon and resource efficiency.The goal is to maximize the mobility output achieved per unit of resources and emissions expended(see Figure 3).The Forging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car5taxonomy addresses usage,vehicle lifetime,materials and energy-related aspects of circular business models.Finally,the policy workstream is under development.It will connect the dots of this ecosystem and address the relevant policy tools to be taken onboard by governments globally.Each of these workstreams has been supported by our diverse community of stakeholder organizations,including carmakers,materials suppliers,national research institutes,non-governmental organizations(NGOs)and academic institutions.They have contributed their insights through workshops and many dozens of interviews,as well as data and feedback on this multifaceted analytical process.In addition to our analytical partners McKinsey and Accenture,CCI would also like to recognize the valuable support and contributions of our CCI co-founders at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development(WBCSD),EIT Climate-KIC and SYSTEMIQ.The Circular Cars Initiative(CCI):organizational structure and 2020 deliverablesFIGURE 2CCI deliverables for 2020 includeA five-level taxonomy for automotive circularityA materials transition tool to delineate pathways for material decarbonization in the sectorRoadmaps(materials,policy and business models)outlining critical investments,milestones and policy-drivers for circularityApproach to start circularity-focused pilot projects among member companiesForging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car6Automotive materials1The next hurdle in the quest for the zero-carbon car.To decarbonize the automotive industry and help reach the Paris Agreement targets of cutting greenhouse-gas(GHG)emissions 50%by 2030 reaching net-zero by 2050 a full and detailed view of the sectors emissions throughout a vehicles life cycle is required.Internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)currently generate 6580%of their lifetime emissions from exhaust as the car burns fuel,and another 1822%of emissions from the production of materials(Figure 3).Because the use phase accounts for such a high proportion of emissions,the industrys focus so far has been on electrifying powertrains.A McKinsey analysis found that to achieve the 2050 net-zero goal,battery-electric vehicle(BEV)sales penetration must be close to 100%by 2040.Many countries have accordingly announced plans to ban sales of ICEVs by 2040.2Beyond electrifying powertrains,achieving the full potential of automotive decarbonization requires an equal focus on materials production.While BEVs can significantly reduce use-phase emissions,especially as renewables continue to expand their share of the grids energy mix,the energy-and emission-intensive production processes of automotive materials particularly batteries will place new demands on the industrys efforts to decarbonize(Figure 4).Emissions in OEMs extended value chain and under less controlFIGURE 33-518-225-1060-701004-64-865-8018-223-54-84-6Total life-cycle emissions1 LogisticsProduction and assemblyFuel supply and exhaust-pipeMaterial productionEOL material recoveryNot addressed:Requires transparency and complex supplier managementUnder less OEM control and not fully addressedUnder direct OEM control and currently addressedMainly addressed by electrification of vehicles and processes paired with increased supply of green electricityShare of 2019 lifecycle emissions ICEV%1.C-segment vehicleSource:NGVA,expert interviews,Decarbonization in Automotive Material Team analysisForging Ahead:A materials roadmap for the zero-carbon car71.Assumed constant range of 15,000km/vehicle per year and 10-year lifetime as baseline End-of-life emissions not considered here2.2018 average 120g CO2/km,target today 95g CO2/km;future assumptions:2030 75g CO2/km;2040 50g CO2/km;0.10-0.16kWh/km for xEV3.Average material emissions:ICE 3,000,EV 7,400,PHEV 5,000,HEV 4,000kg CO2 per vehicle as of model(hold constant as decarbonization in focus)4.Current BEV,PHEV,HEV penetration in relevant regions at 48%;2030:BEV 33%,PHEV 12%,HEV 7%;2040:BEV 60%,PHEV 27%,HEV 13%Source:High-level estimation of Circular Cars Initiative(2020)for ambitious EV adoption scenarioEmissions from material production will have higher share than other life-cycle emissions in percentage share(based on required sales volumes)20204Other emissions including use phase1,2Material production32030204065%35%40%60%82%18%Investigation into BEV vs.ICE life-cycle and material emissionsEmissions from production materials may reach 60%of life-cycle emissions by 2040FIGURE 4FIGURE 51.Reduction potential also depending on vehicle segment with smaller vehicles with typically higher emission reduction potentialSource:World Economic Forum,Global Batterny Alliance,McKinsey analysisLife-cycle emissionBEV life-cycle emissions could be substantially lower and depend on use of green electricity in power mixICE(Gasoline)Life-cycle emission reduction potential depending on region1BEV-5560%-2235%-1926%ICE(Gasoline)1.5-2.0 xBEVMaterial emissions1.5-2.0 x higher material emissions for BEV vs.ICEV due to ene