2020年世界投资报告.pdf

U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TUNCTADUNITED NATIONSINTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION BEYOND THE PANDEMIC2020WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT30thanniversaryeditionThe contents of this report must not be quoted or summarized in the print,broadcast or electronic media before16 June 2020,05:00 GMT.(01:00 New York,07:00 Geneva,10:30 Delhi,14:00 Tokyo)EMBARGOGeneva,2020U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TINTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION BEYOND THE PANDEMIC2020WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT30thanniversaryeditioniiWorld Investment Report 2020 International Production Beyond the PandemicISBN 978-92-1-112985-4eISBN 978-92-1-005144-6Print ISSN 1020-2218eISSN 2225-1677Sales No.E.20.II.D.23 2020,United NationsAll rights reserved worldwideRequests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Copyright Clearance Center at .All other queries on rights and licences,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to:United Nations Publications,405 East 42nd Street,New York,New York 10017,United States of AmericaEmail:publicationsun.orgWebsite:un.org/publicationsThe designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.This publication has been edited externally.United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.UNCTAD/WIR/2020iiiPrefacePREFACEGlobal flows of foreign direct investment(FDI)will be under severe pressure this year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.These vital resources are expected to fall sharply from 2019 levels of$1.5 trillion,dropping well below the trough reached during the global financial crisis and undoing the already lackluster growth in international investment over the past decade.Flows to developing countries will be hit especially hard,as export-oriented and commodity-linked investments are among the most seriously affected.The consequences could last well beyond the immediate impact on investment flows.Indeed,the crisis could be a catalyst for a process of structural transformation of international production this decade,and an opportunity for increased sustainability,but this will depend on the ability to take advantage of the new industrial revolution and to overcome growing economic nationalism.Cooperation will be crucial;sustainable development depends on a global policy climate that remains conducive to cross-border investment.The World Investment Report,now in its thirtieth year,supports policymakers by monitoring global and regional FDI trends and documenting national and international investment policy developments.This years Report naturally takes stock of the COVID-19 crisis.It also includes a new chapter,added at the request of the UN General Assembly,on investment in the Sustainable Development Goals.This analysis shows that international private sector flows to four out of ten key SDG areas have failed to increase substantially since the adoption of the goals in 2015.With less than a decade left to the agreed deadline of 2030,this makes it all the more important to evaluate the implications of the expected changes in the investment landscape over the coming years.As such,this years World Investment Report is required reading for policymakers and an important tool for the international development community.I commend its information and analysis to a wide global audience.Antnio Guterres Secretary-General of the United NationsivWorld Investment Report 2020 International Production Beyond the PandemicThe global economy is in the midst of a severe crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.The immediate impact on FDI will be dramatic.Longer term,a push for supply chain resilience and more autonomy in productive capacity could have lasting consequences.But COVID-19 is not the only gamechanger for FDI.The new industrial revolution,the policy shift towards more economic nationalism,and sustainability trends will all have far-reaching consequences for the configuration of international production in the decade to 2030.The overall directional trend in international production points towards shorter value chains,higher concentration of value added and declining international investment in physical productive assets.That will bring huge challenges for developing countries.For decades,their development and industrialization strategies have depended on attracting FDI,increasing participation and value capture in GVCs,and gradual technological upgrading in international production networks.The expected transformation of international production also brings some opportunities for development,such as promoting resilience-seeking investment,building regional value chains and entering new markets through digital platforms.But capturing these opportunities will require a shift in development strategies.Export-oriented investment geared towards exploiting factors of production,resources and low-cost labour will remain important.But the pool of such investment is shrinking,and the first rungs on the development ladder could become much harder to climb.A degree of rebalancing towards growth based on domestic and regional demand and promoting investment in infrastructure and domestic services is necessary.That means promoting investment in SDG sectors.The large amounts of institutional capital looking for investment opportunities in global markets does not look for investment projects in manufacturing,but for value-creating projects in infrastructure,renewable energy,water and sanitation,food and agriculture,and health care.The findings in the dedicated chapter in this report on investment in the SDGs show that sustainability-themed funds in global capital markets are growing rapidly.At the same time,they show these finances are not yet finding their way to investments on the ground in developing countries.We have now entered the last decade for the implementation of the SDGs.We need action to translate increased interest in SDG finance into increased SDG investment in the least developed countries.I hope that the Action Plan for Investment in the SDGs presented in this report will inspire and reinvigorate efforts around the world to make this happen.FOREWORDMukhisa KituyiSecretary-General of UNCTADvACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe World Investment Report 2020 was prepared by a team led by James X.Zhan.The team members included Richard Bolwijn,Bruno Casella,Arslan Chaudhary,Joseph Clements,Hamed El Kady,Kumi Endo,Klmn Kalotay,Joachim Karl,Isya Kresnadi,Oktawian Kuc,Jing Li,Anthony Miller,Kyoungho Moon,Abraham Negash,Yongfu Ouyang,Diana Rosert,Amelia Santos-Paulino,Astrit Sulstarova,Claudia Trentini,Elisabeth Tuerk,Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee.Research support and inputs were provided by Chantal Dupasquier,Vicente Guazzini,Yvan Rwananga,Christoph Spennemann,Alessandro Storchi,Nina Vujanovic and Paul Wessendorp.Comments and contributions were provided by Yoseph Asmelash,Vincent Beyer,Stephania Bonilla,Tatiana Krylova,Mathabo Le Roux,Maha El Masri,Massimo Meloni,Alina Nazarova,Selahattin Selsah Pasali and Ian Richards.Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt,Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Smita Lakhe.IT assistance was provided by Chrysanthi Kourti and Elena Tomuta.The manuscript was copy-edited by Lise Lingo.The design of the charts and infographics,and the typesetting of the report were done by Thierry Alran and Neil Menzies.Production of the report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal and Katia Vieu.Additional support was provided by Nathalie Eulaerts,Rosalina Goyena and Sivanla Sikounnavong.The report benefited from feedback and advice on chapter IV from Richard Baldwin,Gary Gereffi,Rajneesh Narula and Taffere Tesfachew,as well as Caroline Freund(and the colleagues of the World Bank Trade,Investment and Competitiveness Global Practice).The team is also grateful for comments and inputs from Emily Blanchard,Fernando Cantu,Alisa DiCaprio,Sami Hamroush,Hyoungmin Han,Francesca Jaworska,Romain Julia,Alexey Kuznetsov,Magdalena Lizardo,Nicolas Maystre,Andrew Mold,Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid,Edo Mahendra,Themba Munalula,Melinda Posey,Andy Prasetyo,Heba Salama,Magdolna Sass,Premila Satyanand,Rita Schmutz,Dietmar Scholz,Ilan Strauss,David Wong and Sangjun Yea.The report benefited from collaboration with colleagues from the United Nations Regional Commissions for its sections on regional trends in chapter II.Also acknowledged are comments received from the UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics,and Division on Trade and Commodities as part of the internal peer review process,as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General.Numerous officials of central banks,national government agencies,international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to the report.AcknowledgementsviWorld Investment Report 2020 International Production Beyond the PandemicTABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE .iiiFOREWORD .ivACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .vABBREVIATIONS .ixKEY MESSAGES .XCHAPTER I.GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS .1A.FDI AND THE COVID-19 CRISIS .21.The impact of the pandemic on FDI.22.Global and regional FDI forecasts.33.IPA expectations.9B.2019 FDI TRENDS .111.FDI by geography.112.Trends in greenfield investment projects and cross-border M&As by sector.153.Project finance.18C.INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION .181.Key indicators of international production.222.Internationalization trends of the largest MNEs.23CHAPTER II.REGIONAL TRENDS .27A.DEVELOPING ECONOMIES .281.Africa.282.Developing Asia.403.Latin America and the Caribbean.48B.TRANSITION ECONOMIES .54C.DEVELOPED ECONOMIES .61D.STRUCTURALLY WEAK,VULNERABLE AND SMALL ECONOMIES .671.Least developed countries.672.Landlocked developing countries.743.Small island developing States.79viiTable of ContentsCHAPTER III.RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AND KEY ISSUES .87A.INVESTMENT POLICY RESPONSES TO THE PANDEMIC .881.Investment policies counter the crisis in numerous ways.882.Likely lasting impact of the pandemic on investment policymaking.95B.NATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES .971.Overall trends.972.Merger controls affecting foreign investors .103C.INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES .1061.Trends in IIAs:new treaties and other policy developments.1062.Trends in ISDS:new cases and outcomes.1103.Taking stock of IIA reform.112CHAPTER IV.INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION:A DECADE OF TRANSFORMATION AHEAD .119INTRODUCTION .120A.THE RUN-UP:30 YEARS OF INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION .1231.Two decades of growth followed by one of stagnation.1232.2020:a crossroads for international production.126B.THE CONFIGURATION OF INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION TODAY .1291.Key dimensions of international production.1292.Industry profiles and archetypes.132C.MEGATRENDS AFFECTING INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION .1381.Technology and the NIR.1382.Policy,sustainability and COVID-19.147D.POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES FOR INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION .1551.Reshoring.1552.Diversification.1593.Regionalization.1614.Replication.163E.A DECADE OF TRANSFORMATION AHEAD:POLICY IMPLICATIONS .1681.Reconfiguration of international production.1682.Meeting the challenges and capturing the opportunities .170viiiWorld Investment Report 2020 International Production Beyond the PandemicCHAPTER V.INVESTING IN THE SDGs .179INTRODUCTION .180A.TRENDS IN SDG INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES .181B.SUSTAINABLE FINANCE .1871.Sustainability-dedicated financial products.1872.Financial market response to the COVID-19 crisis.195C.SUSTAINABLE STOCK EXCHANGES AND ESG INTEGRATION .1991.The role of stock exchanges and regulators.1992.SDG integration in CSR initiatives.2033.Reporting on gender by MNEs.205D.GLOBAL INVESTMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS RELATED TO THE SDGs .2101.National strategies for promoting the SDGs.2102.Investment policy tools related to the SDGs.2143.Investment policy measures enacted since the adoption of the SDGs.219E.THE WAY FORWARD .2221.A“Big Push”.2222.A balanced approach.2223.A set of transformative actions.2234.Recommendations to the General Assembly.226REFERENCES .231ANNEX TABLES .237Annex table 1.FDI flows,by region and economy,20142019.238Annex table 2.FDI stock,by region and economy,2000,2010 and 2019.242ixABBREVIATIONSAbbreviations3Dthree-dimensionalAAAAAddis Ababa Action AgendaAfCFTAAfrican Continent Free Trade AreaAIartificial intelligenceACPAfrican,Caribbean and Pacific Group of StatesAfCFTAAfrican Continental Free Trade AreaBITbilateral investment treatyCAGRcompound annual growth rateCARIFORUM Caribbean ForumCEPAComprehensive Economic Partnership AgreementCETAComprehensive Economic and Trade AgreementCFTAContinental Free Trade AgreementCISCommonwealth of Independent StatesCOVID-19coronavirus disease 2019CPTPPComprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific PartnershipCSRcorporate social responsibilityECTEnergy Charter TreatyEGLSestimated generalized least square EPAEconomic Partnership AgreementESAEastern and Southern Africa StatesESGenvironmental,social and governanceETFexchange-traded fundEVelectric vehicleFBSDFamily Business for Sustainable DevelopmentFETfair and equitable treatmentFTfree trade agreementGCIGuidance on Core IndicatorsGMMgeneralized method of moments GVCglobal value chainIC information and communication technologyICMAInternational Capital Market AssociationICSIDInternational Centre for Settlement of Investment DisputesIFCInternational Finance CorporationIIAinternational investment agreementIMFInternational Monetary FundINFFIntegrated National Finance FrameworkIOSCOInternational Organization of Securities CommissionsIoTinternet of thingsIPAinvestment promotion agencyIPFSDInvestment Policy Framework for Sustainable DevelopmentISDSinvestorState dispute settlementLDCleast developed countryLLDClandlocked developing countryM&Asmergers and acquisitionsMIGAMultilateral Investment Guarantee AgencyMNEmultinational enterpriseMSMEmicro,small and medium-sized enterprisesNAFTANorth American Free Trade AgreementNEMnon-equity modeNIRnew industrial revolutionOEMoriginal equipment manufacturerPPEpersonal protective equipmentPPPpublic-private partnershipR&Dresearch and developmentRCEPRegional Comprehensive Economic PartnershipRVCregional value chainSDGsSustainable Development GoalsSEZspecial economic zoneSIDSsmall island developing StatesSMEssmall and medium-sized enterprisesSO-MNEState-owned multinational enterpriseSSESustainable Stock Exchanges(initiative)TIFATrade and Investment Framework AgreementTIPtreaty with investment provisionTiSATrade in Services AgreementTPPTrans-Pacific PartnershipTTIPTransatlantic Trade and Investment PartnershipUNCITRALUnited Nations Commission on International Trade LawUN DESAUnited Nations Department of Economic and Social AffairsUNGCUnited Nations Global CompactUNWTOUnited Nations World Tourism OrganizationUSMCAUnited StatesMexico