2021年重庆商业及物流地产市场回顾与展望.pdf

0 02021202211.2292.30503.51714.728001Urban Economic Development3 3ABCDGEHF3,000A B C D E F G H I I76%69116181,0001,4504704508.243826843,205.4221734 46.1%13,96818.5%69.5%43,5028.7%GDP 27,8948.3%0%5%10%15%20%07,00014,00021,00028,00035,000GDP0%20%40%60%80%100%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%5%10%15%20%014,00028,00042,00056,00070,0000%5%10%15%20%25%03,5007,00010,50014,00014,78753.0%420212021202120215 520194:202211820212021112021-20252025203520221176 62010-2020:%336.041,7721.713,205.422010320.801.06%200020100.94/()202120202019 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,60020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020-0.500.511.522.5-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,5007 7376105620h832020213,8412720192035203520356,20045257.5/11.9/358-10125-620213,576.647.728.0620202.4%15.9%2.2%420215202120218253505020219298393590%8 89 9-21 2.87-101011 3.39 11116 1.98 121212020255131320192021,2021202212020217.07.58.08.59.09.50.020.040.060.080.0100.02020201920210.02.04.06.08.010.0141420211020(1)1515(2)2021111220251.551520251.552,00021010020302030161620211013202120252025162020202512321.652.332,6033,00041,2972,500510111566,513.49,0007675.31,0008102.75009FDI21135105002963301117251249601333.1341141,752.12,700156.61020259,0001,0001002035171720202025%7095%9095%80100%80%4%723030PQI9394PQI8587%9595%902021102021-20352021-20251720202025%60.263%12.415181820201320211815320212468910111272021202120211919192020202110202020271518.59,60020196.320191.9%6.9%6.3%21212025203521202566%12.5%63%88%95%90%20352222202123489678202120352323232324242021102021-20352021-20252443625252021102021-20352021-2025252h1h6h6h6h123123203526261681,19816.25026.6202127271234567891011121314142828202150020212021500961128133207252367400444453-300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100202150026,745.950045650029292020202110 20212902Grade-A Office Market31312011-20212011-2021202114,787.19.0%-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,0002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020210%20%40%60%80%100%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212007001,2001,7002,2002,7003,2003,7004,2001,0006,00011,00016,00021,00026,00031,00036,0003232202120212.9%242/20211.9%100/2.38%83.2620212.9%242/20211.9%100/2021050100150200250300350北京上海深圳广州杭州南京成都青岛武汉厦门大连天津西安长沙重庆沈阳332 247 212 179 133 127 111 107 106 95 92 91 91 88 83 71 242/100/-2.9%-1.9%/3333202183.16/3.73%83.16191,569202131B191,569151,0782021151,078202022,254,172 202132,254,172TMT0.8129.84%0.8129.84%3.73%20213192020121.85%3434202131B191,569标准层示意图标准层示意图标准层示意图3535-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020210102030405060-20 40 60 80 100Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 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m235.85%801-1000m24420214545中央公园照母山光电园汽博中心新牌坊2021464612公园北区公园东区公园中区中央公园73现有项目未来项目791265211811310202147472021484850,0004.8%217,00020.9%120,00011.6%111,33710.7%85,0008.2%108,00010.4%2022-20252022-2025345,29633.3%-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,0002022202320242025345,000平方米339,337平方米267,296平方米85,000平方米494920223420201,100452022220251495050TOP 1TOP2TMTTOP3TOP4TOP503Retail Property Market52522011-2021202120210%5%10%15%20%25%05,00010,00015,00005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0000%5%10%15%20%-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,0002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202153532021698,0002021568B69.85,762,000202155,762,0000.4510.41%0.4510.41%582.40/68B1.72%582.401.72%20215100-300545468B202181270,000gentle monsteramiMarc jacobs2021423170,0002021613113,000Blt20201230210,000UMEGYMCARE VIVATOD20201225135,0002021121520225555(200,000)(100,000)-100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q420142015201620172018201920202021201820192020202102468101214500.00600.00700.00800.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q420142015201620172018201920202021/%55565613.02203404.5%050.8210100014.3%071.5250150027.1%051.44509007.7%051.841017505.8%70,00043.44007507.1%210,00053.62906905.0%020.02604409.6%024.83004506.6%113,00011.068010203.1%052.03906009.1%170,00055.32506309.2%017.72904402.0%0/%13.53505403.0%135,00046.424075011.8%056100-300575762%62.4%22%58%20.0%21.9%50%49.8%11.7%1.71%14.12%11.70%22.68%1.71%49.80%2021,13.3%,24.3%,62.4%21.9%58.0%20.0%5858运动潮流顶级时尚大众时尚设计时尚快时尚5959零售,55%餐饮,30%服务娱乐,15%国际品牌,17%全国品牌,59%本地品牌,24%设计时尚,43%大众时尚,19%运动潮流,17%顶级时尚,19%6060区域活跃度&顶级时尚开业聚集地运动潮流开业聚集地61612021202170%52%41.7%25.0%96852.2%34.8%8.7%4.3%69.6%13.0%17.4%5 9 626220216363202101.02.03.04.05.202011182021930930-107100156464202165652021Randb Oasis6L15392E102BarSWIMMINTOTOMATO2521-770logo81S PURE COFFEE676966662021X商业集中度产业集中度枢纽层级消费者活跃度生活方式多样性发展潜力67672021201712,20201225,202142342600420OPPOJW6868新进世贸系万科印象城系王府井龙湖天街系新进重庆光环系大悦城系万科印象城系龙湖天街系深耕重庆2021龙湖天街系2003201420082017U201220162012+2021吾悦系6969-200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,00020222023202420252022-20252022-2025352,000平方米1,075,700平方米58,000平方米554,00035.13%353,20022.40%163,70010.38%58,0003.68%73,0004.63%285,00018.07%90,0005.71%91,200平方米7070T CITY90112025210100707171TOP 1TOP2TOP3TOP4TOP5Logistics Market047373“1:96 000 000成都乌鲁木齐西宁兰州重庆西安贵阳呼和浩特战略定位：物流和运营组织中心747450.24004642,9192,919 20212,91942464 1050.25.75.724.0%22.1/1.7%22.1/1.7%75752021422,91928%25%20%3,720 5,169 7,218 3,528 2,919 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00020172018201920202021422,91925%2021万州区25%渝北区20%长寿区8%沙坪坝区7%合川区6%江津区3%九龙坡区3%涪陵区2%其他（县）24%7576762015202140020%46.265.077.7134.9181.9266.2377.518.812.657.247.084.3111.350.20501001502002503003504004502015201620172018201920202021存量新增供应空置率租金20.021.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.00%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015201620172018201920202021777724.3%23.0%/%22.0219.50.0%巴南东港两江空港两江龙盛沙坪坝渝北九龙坡江津40.319.929.4%48.3522.037.2%25.5820.045.0%32.6219.810.4%79.7923.023.0%23.2730.00.0%145.0423.124.3%江津78782022-202324240,116230,38829,90040,0002022-20232022-2023-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,00020222023东港两江空港两江龙盛沙坪坝两江龙盛两江空港巴南东港沙坪坝79791-279808081812020202110 2021GDP27,894.028.3%202126,745.95004565003.73%83.16TMT0.8129.84%202221.72%582.400.4510.41%20252101001.7%22.1/5.724.0%