不确定性系统与模型精细化误区.doc

目 录
专题一：灰色评价理论及其应用
不确定性系统与模型精细化误区
刘思峰，J.福雷斯特 1
基于灰色多层次评价方法的河南新能源汽车项目风险评价
罗党，张敬 6
基于灰色关联定权的加权聚类法及其应用
钱吴永，党耀国 11
基于灰色系统视角的博弈分析范式的构建及应用举例
zha盛中，王文平 15
灰色系统、白化规律与白化权函数
董奋义，刘斌 22
我国对灰色系统的关注与研究
郭三党，刘斌 26
供应链应急管理主客体博弈分析
李宏娟，庄品 30
基于灰色关联聚类的高校上市公司动态竞争力
刘勇 ，菅利荣 34
基于灰色聚类方法的电子战系统试验配试设备选择
满莹，陈杨，李萧 38
基于投入产出视角的河南省创新型社会建设评价研究
王菲，杨雪 42
精品课程评估的灰色聚类模型
王庆东 47
基于熵权的电力上市公司信用风险模糊评价
王喜平，闫丽莹 53
基于灰色关联分析的高校财务评价模型
杨德岭，陈万明 57
基于多层次灰色评价法的宁德与宁波经济发展比较
叶舒婷，陈可嘉 61
我国优势经济部门的评价及变动研究
穆月英，杜鹃，王学萌 68

专题二 灰色关联理论及应用
影响我国各地区中医行业发展因素的灰色关联分析
段利忠，张瑛，翟广倩，耿浩，禤春裕 76
基于灰色关联度的品种区域试验同异分析方法
郭瑞林，刘亚飞，王景顺，毛光志，刘彦珍，崔瑞峰 83
灰色自适应小目标检测
吴国平，吴亦奇，裘咏霄，杜志顺 88
我国农村城镇化实证分析及对策
李桥兴，杨都 93
中国经济增长和能源消费的关系研究
袁潮清，刘思峰 97
基于OWA算子的灰色关联模型群融合方法
张可，刘思峰 100
基于灰色关联的产业结构与经济发展的实证分析
陈福中，吴秋璟，张璇，李中 106
基于灰色关联度的废弃物回收利用因素探讨
龚 英 112
基于灰色关联度和理想解法的多属性群决策
琚冰源，王秋萍 117
房地产业与经济发展的灰色关联分析
李亚平，刘思峰 123
中国零售业赢利能力影响因素的灰色关联分析
吕鹏娟 126
基于加权灰色关联Topsis法的我国航空客运服务质量测度分析
王砚羽，张卓 130
微格教学关联分析与课堂教学改进
叶苗瑛，殷伯明 136
关联分析在浦东新区教育信息化指标优化中的应用
朱一军，刘朋 140

专题三：灰色决策及灰色算子
知识型企业的知识灰生成与创新绩效关系研究
王文平，单海燕 145
三参数区间灰数信息下的多目标灰靶决策方法
罗党，孙利 152
基于灰代数系统的灰区间预测模型
徐振东 157
基于灰色聚类决策的齿轮箱故障诊断
李爱民 163
小城镇土地集约利用评价的多层次灰色局势决策模型
李希灿，王静 166
灰色多阶段动态决策模型及其应用研究
崔杰，党耀国，刘思峰，谢乃明 171
灰色决策在常减压塔顶换热器改造中的应用
王正方 175
灰色群决策问题的特征向量方法
巩在武 179
大型复杂产品主制造商与供应商间灰非对称进化博弈链模型研究
何利芳，陈洪转 183
基于单调函数的4种新强化缓冲算子及其关系研究
胡小莉，吴正朋 188
浦东新区中小学“信息化教学资源”建设与应用效益多目标局势决策
纪波，白丽波 193
一类新的弱化缓冲算子及其性质
万 琴，魏 勇 197
专题四：灰色预测理论及其应用
灰预测模型的分类及相应事前检验研究进展概述
魏 勇，李俊杰 201
灰色灾变理论在气候类金融衍生品价值评估中的应用
王建辉 206
基于灰色模型的电子装备故障预测精度分析
柯宏发，吴正朋，刘思峰，李青 212
灰色神经网络模型在石油消费预测中的应用
王秋萍，闫建波 216
多目标多维自反馈灰色模糊预测模型
李希灿，王静 220
基于三角函数cscx的数据变换技术预测模型
崔立志，刘思峰 225
中国人口灰色动态模型及其周期分析
杜 鹃，郝永红，王学萌 230
改进PSO-GM(1,1)及其在产品寿命预测中的应用
刘虹，张岐山 236
广义灰色多变量GM(1,N)模型及算法研究
彭琨琨，肖新平 239
灰色预测模型的系统动力学分析
朱超余，谢乃明 245
基于灰色GM（1，1）模型的能源消费结构预测
王宁，湛必云，刘辉 249
专题五：灰色GM模型及其它
GM(1,1)灰数递补动态预测
王学萌，杜鹃 253
基于GM (1, 1) 模型的中国能源消耗预测分析
姚天祥，魏 玲 257
灰数比较的可信度及其在灰区间DEA模型中的应用
王洁方，刘思峰 260
运用灰色GM(1,1)系统模型预测天津市污水排放量
赵娇娟，郝永红，王亚捷，李华敏 264
基于Visual C#的灰色理论建模系统及其应用
曾波，刘思峰 268
基于GM(1,1)粗大误差判别的天波场强数据处理方法
夏斌 272
非等间距多变量模型背景值的优化
熊萍萍，党耀国，杨阳 277
非等间距GM(1,1)模型的时间响应函数优化方法
徐宁，党耀国，王正新 283
GM(1,1)残差周期分析软件开发
王亚捷，郝永红，李华敏，赵娇娟 287
GM(1,1)模型中函数变换方法的重新认识
陈鹏宇，段新胜，项翔 292
优化白化方程参数的新NGM(1,1,k)模型及其应用
陈鹏宇，段新胜，项翔 299
JYMF中学无干预Verhust与有干预GM(1,1)
金社平，周东红，殷伯明 305
LH小学学业进步GM(1,1)四数据建模与未来预测
屈咏梅，殷伯明 310
校长换任对学生学业进步正激励的试探法Verhulst建模
汤赤，殷伯明 314
董事会特征与信息披露质量
李备友，苏卫东 319
基于灰靶贡献度的灰局势决策理论在供应商选择中的应用
陈华，张岐山 324

Contents
1. The Grey Evaluation and Its Application
On Astray of Complicated Model for Uncertain Systems
Sifeng Liu，Jeffrey Forrest 1
The Risk Assessment of Alternative fuel vehicles Project in Henan Province Based on Grey Hierarchy Evaluation Method
Luo Dang，Zhang Jing 6
Weighted Clustering Method Based on the Grey Correlation and Its Application
QIAN Wu-yong，DANG Yao-guo 11
Construction of a paradigm for game analysis based on grey system perspective and an example of its application
Zha Shengzhong，Wang Wenping 15
Grey System, Whitenization Discipline and the Whitenization Weight Function
DONG Fen-yi，LIU Bin 22
The attentions and studies on gray system in China—based on the bibliometric research of 27 years
GUO Sandang，LIU Bin 26
Host-guest Game Analysis of Supply Chain Emergency Management
Hongjuan Li，Pin Zhuang 30
Competitiveness of the University of Listed Companies Based on Grey Incidence Clustering
Liu Yong，Jian Lirong 34
The equipped test equipment select of electronics warfare system test based on the grey clustering evaluation approach
Ying Man ，Yang Chen2, Xiao Li 38
Study on the Evaluation of Innovative Society Construction in Henan Province Based on Input-Output Perspective
Fei Wang，Xue Yang 42
The Grey Cluster Model of Top-quality Courses Evaluation
WANG Qing-dong 47
The Fuzzy Evaluation of Power Listed Companies’ Credit Risk Based on Entropy Weight
WANG Xi-ping1，YAN Li-ying 53
Colleges Financial Evaluation Model Based on Grey Relational Analysis
YANG De-ling, CHEN Wan-ming 57
The Comparison of Economic Development between Ningde and Ningbo based on the Multilevel Gray Evaluation Method
YE Shu-ting，CHEN Ke-jia 61
The Evaluation and Change Research of Prior Economic Sectors in Our Country--on the Strength of Multi-level Grey Evaluation Model on Input-output
Yueying Mu，Juan Du，Xuemeng Wang 68
2. The Grey Relation and Its Application
The Influencing Factors of Development of the Chinese Traditional Medicine in the Different Area of the China Done with the Grey Relational Analysis
DUAN Li-zhong，ZHANG Ying，ZAI Guang-qian，GENG Hao，XUAN Chun-yu 76
Method of Similarity-difference Analysis Based on The Degree of Grey Incidence
Guo Ruilin，Liu Yafei，Wang Jingshun，Mao Guangzhi，Liu Yazheng，Cui Ruifeng 83
Adaptive Detection for Small Target Based on Grey System Theory
Wu Guoping，Du Zhishun，Wu Yiqi，Qiu Yongxiao 88
Experimental Analysis and Strategy for Country’s Urbanization
Qiao-Xing Li，Du Yang 93
The Relation Between Chinese Energy Consumption and Economic Growth
Chaoqing Yuan，Sifeng Liu 97
Multi-grey Relational Models Fusion Based on OWA Operator
Zhang Ke，Liu Si-feng 100
Empirical Analysis of Industry Structure and Economic Development Based on Grey Incidence: Evidence from Jiangsu Province
Fuzhong Chen Qiujing Wu Xuan Zhang Zhong Li 106
Study on Comprehensive Utilized Factors for the Three Wastes in Ecological Civilization
GONG Ying 112
Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making Method Based on Grey Incidence Degree and TOPSIS
JU Bing-yuan，WANG Qiu-ping 117
Grey association analysis on real estate industry and economic development
Yaping Li，Sifeng Liu 123
Gray relational analysis of the factors affecting the profitability of China’s retail industry.
Lv Pengjuan 126
A study on China’s Airlines service quality measure based on the weighted gray correlation Topsis method
Wang-yanyu，Zhang Zhuo 130
Microteaching Relational Analysis and the Improvement of Classroom Teaching
Ye Miaoyin，Yin Boming 136
The Application of Relational Analysis in the Pudong New Area-based indicators for Education Information Optimization
Zhu Yijun ，Liu Peng 140
3. The Grey Decision and Grey Operator
Study on relationships between knowledge grey generation and innovation performance of knowledge-based enterprises
Wang wenping，Shan Haiyan 145
The Multi-objective Grey Target Decision Method under the information of three-parameter Interval Grey Number
Luo Dang，Sun Li 152
The grey interval prediction model based on grey algebra system
Xu Zhendong1 157
Fault diagnosis of gear case based on grey clustering decision-making
Li Aimin 163
The Pattern of Multi-layers Grey Situation Decision in Intensive Land Use Evaluation for Towns
Xican Li，Jing Wang 166
Grey multi-stage dynamic decision making modelling and its application
CUI Jie DANG Yao-guo,LIU Si-feng,XIE Nai-ming 171
Application of grey decision on atmospheric-vacuum distillation unit exchangers rebuilding
WANG Zhengfang 175
An Eigenvector Method for Grey Group Decision Making
Zaiwu GONG 179
Category of inter-gray non-symmetric evolutionary game chain model between the main manufacturers and suppliers in large- complex product
Helifang，Chenhongzhuan 183
Study on the strengthening buffer operator based on the strictly monotone function
HU Xiaoli，WU Zheng-peng 188
Multi-objective Situation Decision-making on "Information Teaching Resources" Construction and Application's Effective of Primary and Secondary Schools in Pudong New Area
Bo Ji，Libo Bai 193
A Kind of New Buffering Operator and Its Properties
Qin Wan，Yong Wei 197
4. The Grey Forecast and Its Application
The Overview about Classification of Grey Model and Its Corresponding Pre-test Methods
Yong Wei，Junjie Li 201
The discussion of grey disaster system theory applied in climatic financial derivatives evaluation
Jianhui Wang 206
Precision analysis for electronic equipment fault prediction based on grey model
KE Hong-fa，WU Zheng-peng，LIU Si-feng，LI Qing 212
The Application of Grey GM(1, 1) Forecasting Model with Neural Network Residual Modification to Oil Consumption
Qiu-Ping WANG，Jian-Bo YAN 216
The Pattern of Multi-objective and Multi-dimensional Grey Fuzzy Forecasting with Feedback
Xican Li，Jing Wang 220
Data Transformation Technique for Grey forecasting Model Based on Trigonometic function
CUI Li-zhi，LIU Si-feng 225
The Grey Dynamic Mode and Periodical Analysis of Population in China
Juan Du，Yonghong Hao， Xuemeng Wang 230
Improved PSO-GM(1,1) and its application to product life prediction
Liu Hong，Zhang Qishan 236
Research on generalized grey GM(1,N) model of multi-variables and its algorithm
Peng Kunkun，Xiao Xinping 239
System Dynamics Analysis of Grey Model
ZHU Chao-yu，XIE Nai-ming 245
Based on gray GM (1,1) model of energy consumption structure prediction
Wang Ning，Zhan BiYun，Liu Hui 249
5. The Grey Model and Other
Dynamic Forecasting with Recursive Compensation by Grey Numbers of GM(1，1)
Xuemeng Wang，Juan Du 253
Forecast and Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption Based on GM(1,1) Model
Tian-xiang Yao，Ling Wei 257
Credibility degree of grey numbers’ comparison and its application in interval DEA model
WANG Jiefang，LIU Sifeng 260
A prediction for the sewage discharge in Tianjin city using GM(1,1) model
ZhaoJiaojuan，HaoYonghong，WangYajie，LiHuami 264
Modeling system of grey theory based on Visual C# and its application
Zeng Bo， Liu Sifeng 268
Data Processing for Intensity of HF Signal based on GM(1,1) Distinguishing Algorithm of Gross Error
Xia Bin 272
The Optimization of Background Value in Multi-Variable Non-Equidistant Model
XIONG Ping-ping，DANG Yao-guo，YANG Yang 277
A method of optimum on time response sequence for non-equidistant GM(1,1) model
Xu Ning，Dang Yaoguo， Wang Zhengxin 283
Development of GM(1,1) residual periodic Analysis Software
Yajie Wang，Yonghong Hao，Huaming Li，Jiaojuan Zhao 287
Rediscover of functional transformation methods for GM (1, 1) model
CHEN Peng-yu DUAN Xin-sheng XIANG Xiang 292
New NGM (1, 1, k) model with optimization parameters of whitenization differential equation and its application
CHEN Peng-yu，DUAN Xin-sheng，XIANG Xiang 299
JYMF secondary school the non-interference Verhust and the interference GM (1,1) modeling that students obesity
Jin Sheping，Zhou Donghong 305
Modeling GM (1,1) Via 4 Data and future projections of LH primary school progress
Qu Yongmei，Yin Boming 310
Verhulst Modeling via Testing Method for a Changing of Heads of Primary School，Progress in Study of the Students are Spirit
Tan Ce，Yin Boming 314
Board Features and Quality of Information Disclosure
Li bei-you，Su wei-dong 319
Grey Situation Decision Base on Grey Target Contribution Degree for Supplier Selection
Chen Hua，Zhang Qishan 324