中国数字经济超势50条判断.pdf

?2021?50?&CEO?2021.12.04?规?2?分?100?Facebook?Meta?硬?GDP?12.7%?类?2021-2023?分?意?类?2021?2025?点?德?组?决?意?分?分?2021-2025?点?点?2021-2023?5G?15?5G?德?点?/?德?类?2021?9纬1?类?107?APP?2035?德?分?类?德?9纬1?类?意5G?类?3-5?5G?类?500?2023?10?30?5G?2021-2023?分?分?2021?GDP?6%?110?100?点?意?1-3?4-6?7-8?9-10?2021?-87%-83%-74%-73%-72%-67%-53%-50%-49%-35%-24%-23%?德?2021?2021/10/22?l?182?l?l?APP?l?22?性?50?80166828518544990359939849889910107458%60%61%65%67%70%72%2018.6 2018.12 2019.62020.32020.6 2020.12 2021.6?78774816988468189690932369857610066898.3%98.6%99.1%99.3%99.2%99.7%99.6%2018.6 2018.12 2019.62020.32020.6 2020.12 2021.6?2018-2021?2018-2021?缺?CNNIC?QuestMobile5.8 5.9 6.0 7.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 2018.62019.9 2019.12 2020.32020.62020.92021.6?2018-2021?性?2021?2021?1?2?3?4?5?德?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?13?14?15?16?17?德?18?19?20?21?22?23?24?25?2021?CEO?26?27?28?德?29?德?30?31?32?33?34?35?36?37?38?德?39?40?41?42?43?44?45?46?47?48?49?50?2021?6?10.11?71.6%?2021?8?27?CNNIC?48?u2008?步?u?换?u?分?u?u?分?u?u?续?u?u?u?劲?续u?u?u?兽?0-14?18%15-59?63%60?19%2020?10.8%11.4%11.9%12.6%13.5%201620172018201920202016-2020?65?l2020?德?14.1?2019?260?18%l?l15-59?6.79%l60?5.44%?6?分?分?分?分?德?2021?31?分?10%?2021?6000?4?德?装?全?2481744293035157119?A?l?全?2021?劲?劲?l?4922?2021?8?20?A?311?A?缺?续?续?续?续?续?续?2009 1913 1810 673 524 517 435 375 374 345 324 319 317 296 223 215 178 166 165 163 161 155 142 139 128 94 82 78 68 61 61 57 44 43 43 22 17 757 1072 1820 593 517 2695 1672 669 138 720 127 229 166 11 126 21 123 71 627 76 72 96 246 81 55 35 42 47 38 205 52 29 3 27 24 78?2021?缺?2021?10?50%?VR/AR?201920202021.10?2019-2021?10?201920202021.10?2019-2021?10?缺?2021?10?分?分?续?19%11%10%10%9%8%7%5%5%4%6%2%3%2021?硬?TOP3?缺?CB Insights?40?417?168?030201?84%2021?l?72 75?德德?意?缺?100?1-70?71-90?90?IaaS?PaaS?l?分?分?l?2020?24426?10.3%?续?2016-2019?2020?v.s?1.4?3.7?95%?11%11%14%25%46%50%53%69%?CIO?缺?续6%15%42%32%5%?STAGE ONE?STAGE TWO?STAGE THREE?l?分?分?劲?劲?分?分?分?分?点?分?+?点?分?分?续?1TB级别10TB?100TB?1PB?3PB?10-100PB?BIOA?VR/AR?多场景?19802005年20062013年20142019年2025-2030年20202025年2030年以后?ERP?2G?4G/?5G/?6G/?7G?潜?类?分?分?分?分?9?6.9 7.5 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.4 7.5%7.6%7.8%8.2%8.6%9.0%9.5%10.0%2018201920202021E2022E2023E2024E2025E?GDP?51%24%15%10%100%2018?2021?2025?2030?2021?分?分?缺?分?缺?l 2021?9?9?9?17?类?l?德?续?续?l?l?l?PC?点?/BI?AI?2025?2030?2035?2020?2015?2010?2005?2000?2000?l?缺?12%65%22%?分?87%?分?21%10%8%8%22%15%64%61%61%70%73%73%15%30%31%22%5%12%?类?,8%?,92%?缺?分?2020.04.24A?1000?2020.06.05Pre-A?800?2020.07.14B?1000?2020.11.04B?-PingCAP2020.11.17D?2.7?StreamNative2020.08.12Pre-A?EMQ2020.08.12A+?ZStack2020.08.19B+?2.3?Jina AI2020.09.22Pre-A?600?Zilliz2020.11.13B?4300?2021.03.23Pre-A?-TensorBase2021.04.16?-Kyligence2021.04.21D?7000?2021.06.18A+?Datafuse Labs2021.08.06?2021.08.25B+?2?StreamNative2021.09.14A?2300?l?GitHub?2020?1600?2025?1?2030?2020?2021?10?德?分?分?分?to B?农?农?点?缺?13183612321012?1.0?1.0?2.0?API?2.0?挖?API?3.0?3.0?l?续?盲?挖?2021?10?A?B?C?D?IPO?NovaVita?(GWAS)?2018?6?2018?10?2019?2?2019?7?2019?10?2020?6?3?,4GB50?,16GB200?40GB3?160GB66?800GBGPT-3?335?l?IDC?2025?180ZB?DVD?缺?222?l?IDC?EMC?10?缺?2012?性?3.43?30?AI?l2019?OpenAI?1200?GPT-3?2600P?2018?6?GPT?500?NVIDIA V100 GPU?GPT-3?355?l?l?点?l?分?德?0.30.81.84.47.915.831.6440608101214161820?HPE?缺?DataCompute?缺?德?德?+全?5306078098232018201920202021?10?2018-2021?10?l 2020?德?15.9%?德?分?分?德?2025?70%?l?德?分?德?3819.4,43%2560.1,29%2509.5,28%?2020?l?德?l?德?2020?德?8848?17%?23.3%?19.1%?6.8%?70%?2020?2025?15.9%?缺?模?DRAMNANDFlash?CPUGPU?SoCFPGA MCU 模?CISMEMSAI?分?+全?续?IT?分?Gartner?2021?IT?分?IT?6%?IT?Gartner?2024?65%?75%?3.7 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 9.2%9.1%9.1%9.4%9.9%10.1%201420152016201720182019?IT?2014-2019?IT?分?IT?IT?IT?65%?35%Gartner?2024?2024?IT?缺?To G?全?AI?2018-2020?2%2021?Watson Health?AI?AI?2.0?1.75?Switch Transformer?1.6?1750?GPT-3?45TB2021?7?2021?6?2020?5?缺?2020?ToG?39.7%65.8%57.5%58.5%?2021?GoogleHealth?2?30?Nature Medicine?楼?2014?IBM Watson Health 2013-2015?楼?2018?Google Health?10?+?AI?AI?101 123 150 182 221 269 25%27%29%31%33%35%2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EAI?%?AI?分?0.5?,59%0.5-1?,13%1-10?,16%10-?预?预?+?预?+?COP?分?点?缺?l?缺?冲?性?冲?3?4?BCG?D -M -S-B -b -C?分?S?M?B?C2M?l?l?分?分?分?1.0?4.0?1.0?2.0?3.0?4.0?分?分?德?分?分?全?分?/?德?分?模?分?全?分?=?=?5%4%36%18%12%16%8%5TB?5TB-10TB10TB-100TB100TB-500TB500TB-1024TB1PB-10PB10PB?分?性?3.2PB?分?/?分?缺?3.2PB?C?B?3331313130303030303030292929292929282727l?2020?50?l2020?2020?德19?性?29.6?性?27?l2020?12?8?2020?lBOSS?2018?Q3?全?AI?l2021?分?预?75.7%?l?l?8?200?德?5G+?5G?2019?性?分?|?360?58?克?Z?to Z?to?81%68%63%58%74%66%65%57%?APP Z?QuestMobile TRUTH?德?2018?10纬?2021?2035?Z?16?2.9 3.3 3.7 4.3 5.4 5.9 14%12%16%26%9%201620172018201920202021E?2016-2021?1?2019-2020?Z?德?德?全?2020?014?60?2019?16.8%?18.1%?18.0%?18.7%?B?TV?TV?16.8%18.0%65.1%63.4%18.1%18.7%2019?2020?0-14?15-59?60?+?10?618?140?459?TOP1?2021?100?4S?分?453434292624232221?/U?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?/?2020?vs.2019?18141313111010109?/?/DIY?/?/?/?/U?/?/?/?/?2020?vs.2019?/?/?/?+?10?28%35%4%18%13%2%1%0%36%25%12%11%9%5%1%1%2020?2021?2021?A?IPO?2020?A?IPO?德?分?77%?分?5%60%?2017?5%5%18%17%12%48%?5%?5%10%10%20%?20%77%?2019?02550751000255075100?19%?/?4%?/?4%?/?6%?6%?8%?/?/?54%26%?分?46%?%?%?分?分?分?缺?缺?缺?P&S Intelligence?70?3770?6090?2.2?2001201120162021.1?5.8%11.3%19.5%?2001201120162021.15x+24%$50B?5?2024?24%?3443?Fitness+?News+?iCloud?2025?500?COSMOPlat?Indics?Cloudiip?Sup ET?FusionPlant?Fii Cloud?WeMake?H-IIP?xIn3Plat?supOS?UNIPower?2020?l?ICT?分?分?分?分?SCARA?分?分?分?3C?Product as a ServiceProduct as a Service?缺?IT?分?分?CADPaaS?分?PHM?CAE?3D?分?42%43%45%50%58%57%50%50%2018201920202021H1?全?Tier1Tier2全?Tier1Tier2?分?分?AI?MCU?全?SoC?全?l?7?l?15?分10?l?130?3m1.5m1.5m1.5m1.5m?1m1m0.5m0.2m0.3m?9?3?2019202091%?2020?2019?GMV?91%?2000?7.8%7.6%44.9%40.0%2020?2021?32.4%?30%30%?90.3%95.0%2020?2021?点?意?点?意?点?/?2020?2021?37.1%?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?5%10%2%5%3%3%2%21%17%1%2%1%5%6%8%1%2%4%2%0%6%4%1%0%20%6%7%22%8%0%1%0%7%6%3%2%2%1%3%2%?2020?2021?分?园?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?全?德?68.4%?10.3%德?21.3%2020?67.9%?10.3%德?21.8%2021?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?缺?0%1%17%61%21%0%0%7%92%1%?2020?2021?0%1%9%60%30%0%0%4%21%76%?2020?2021?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?12%16%18%20%20%25%30%31%31%33%?分?/?/?27%?受?27%?45%?2021?2020?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?18%22%23%24%25%25%26%27%28%28%31%?分?分?分?分?分?2020?13%14%14%14%15%16%16%16%16%16%17%21%21%23%24%?分?分?分?分?分?分?分?2021?l?l?l?分?分?l?l?分?全?分?全?全?全l?l?点?点?l?l?l?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?30%30%27%14%33%0%67%0%?类?分?/?39%36%34%30%27%23%23%20%16%14%33%67%33%0%67%0%33%33%0%0%?受?缺?突?全?点?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?30%29%29%11%25%25%25%25%分?/?类?31%30%30%29%27%26%24%23%22%20%0%38%25%25%25%25%38%0%25%25%?IT?类全?IT?IT?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?全?宿?IT?全?全?全?32%29%25%14%25%25%25%25%?类?分?/?36%32%32%32%29%25%18%18%18%18%100%50%50%0%0%50%0%0%0%50%?N=2000?2021?10-11纬?IT?宿?点?全?25%22%22%21%21%21%20%20%20%18%17%17%15%14%21%22%19%20%19%21%20%23%21%16%19%19%16%20%?分?/?分/?分/?分?/?2021年2020年?分?分?/?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?3?33%31%29%29%28%28%25%22%15%40%43%32%40%30%38%25%?碎?分?分?2021年2020年?45.0%44.4%40.4%39.2%34.7%34.0%32.9%45.6%45.6%?续?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?2020?意?分?分?2021?10.9%21.2%34.5%36.3%32.9%34.0%28.4%26.4%29.5%41.0%41.9%37.1%35.9%27.7%15.6%8.3%6.6%5.6%4.2%1.9%-0.7%2020?2021?IT?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?点?ITIT?IT?l?l?预?l?l?34.7%35.6%36.5%32.2%35.9%36.5%37.1%27.3%28.9%28.6%21.5%29.7%27.9%33.7%?/?分?类?2020?2021?KPI?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?7.77.67.47.57.47.77.520202020?7.07.56.66.17.17.46.07.07.56.66.17.17.46.020212021?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?7.07.56.66.17.17.46.07.07.56.66.17.17.46.0?受?供应商选择?11.9%19.1%44.1%20.7%4.0%0.3%?0.0%1.1%51.2%42.2%5.0%0.5%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?2020202020212021?5?10?5?4?3?2?0?-1?20212021?ITIT?全?全?CIO/CTO?C?7.07.56.66.17.17.46.07.07.56.66.17.17.46.0?受?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?20212021?20212021?2020?CEOCIO/CTOCDO?CEO CIO?7.07.56.66.17.17.46.07.07.56.66.17.17.46.0?21%24%19%29%27%22%20%21%20%24%33%23%22%30%26%25%28%27%21%15%?/?点?2020?2021?26%32%43%38%28%28%21%35%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?20212021?7.07.56.66.17.17.46.07.07.56.66.17.17.46.0?受?82.1%?76.1%68.2%IT?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?20212021?意?意35.5%32.4%32.1%30.8%5.3%?分?分?SCE?SCC?分?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?意?意?分?分?分?95.5%?分?2.1%17.8%39.3%30.8%40.8%41.1%?分?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?12%11%11%10%10%10%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%?IT?类?缺?2020?32%31%29%25%19%17%15%?缺?IT?2021?ITIT?ITIT?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?KPI?31.4%38.6%20.0%25.7%20.0%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?16.7%14.9%30.8%32.4%28.9%24.7%18.6%?IT?缺?2021?ROI?41.9%8.6%5.4%35.5%23.7%35.5%?续?分?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?16.7%14.9%30.8%32.4%28.9%24.7%18.6%?IT?缺?2021?28.4%12.8%39.4%35.8%32.1%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?17%15%31%32%29%25%19%?IT?缺?2021?缺?缺?点?30.3%27.0%28.7%29.5%35.2%?缺?缺?缺?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?17%15%31%32%29%25%19%?IT?缺?2021?IT?11.2%31.0%29.3%11.2%34.5%27.6%25.0%17%15%31%32%29%25%19%?IT?缺?2021?IT?IT?/?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?39.3%19.6%26.8%32.1%30.4%16.1%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?17%15%31%32%29%25%19%?IT?缺?2021?22.2%25.4%30.2%33.3%28.6%7.9%25.4%?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?16.7%14.9%30.8%32.4%28.9%24.7%18.6%?IT?缺?2021?熟?块?分?全?熟?25%24%22%22%21%20%19%18%17%16%15%15%15%15%14%12%10%?AI?/?分?全?IT?CTO/CIO?2020?21%21%18%18%17%17%17%16%15%15%15%14%14%12%11%11%9%?分?全?CTO/CIO?AI?IT?/?2021?l?l?l?l?l?分?l?l?l?l?l?缺?N=2000?2021?10-11?德?德?预?德?德?德?德?德?德?德?德?德?德?德?德21682005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017?缺?德?缺德?德?德?/?243419282564261422522240201620172018201920202021.10?2016?2021?10?分?l?l?意?l?A Team?意?缺?ESG?ESG?ESG?硬?2021?8?26?德?150?300?性?缺?缺?德?意?3.75?7.5?10%?德?预?缺?德?德?全?2021?9?8?ESG?分?熟?预?全?出?全?园?