布兰查德宏观经济学课后答案.doc

Chapter 11. a. True. b. True. c. False. d. True. e. False. f. False.2. a.1960-981997-99-US3.1%3.8%EU3.1%2.5%Japan5.8%-1.0%While the US growth rate higher than its long-run average over the period, the growth rate hasslowed relative to long-run averages in both the EU and Japan over the last few years.b. Sometimes the economy is growing quickly, other times it is growing slowly or even contracting. The last few years of rapid growth in the US do not imply that the long-run average rate of growth has increased back to its pre-1974 level.3. a. The data in the web page are: Real Gross Domestic Product,Real Final Sales of Domestic Product, andReal Gross National Product, Quarterly, 1959-96Percent change from preceding quarter-GrossFinal salesGrossdomesticof domesticnationalproductproductproduct-1959: I8.69.28.6II11.27.311.1III-0.35.3-0.2IV1.7-1.31.91996: I1.82.61.8II6.05.25.7III1.00.20.6IV4.34.54.9-suggesting that recessions typically last two-three quarters and that the most severe recessions in that period were the recessions of 1974-75 and 1981-82.b.Percentage Changes in: Output GrowthInflation1968:4.74.4I7.54.7II7.14.1III3.03.8IV1.85.51969:3.04.7I6.23.8II1.05.0III2.35.8IV-2.05.11970:0.15.3I-0.76.0II0.65.7III3.73.4IV-3.95.41971:3.35.2I11.36.4II2.35.5III2.64.4IV1.13.3If history simply repeats itself, the United States might have a short recession (lasting perhaps oneyear) accompanied by an acceleration in the rate of inflation by about one percentage point.4. a. Banking services, business services.b. Not only has the relative demand for skilled workers increased but the industries where this effect is the strongest are making up a greater fraction of the economy.5. 1. Low unemployment might lead to an increase in inflation.2. Although measurement error certainly contributes to the measured slowdown in growth, there are other issues to consider as well, including the productivity of new research and accumulation of new capital.3. Although labor market rigidities may be important, it is also important to consider that these rigidities may not be excessive, and that high unemployment may arise from flawed macroeconomic policies.4. Although there were serious problems with regard to the management of Asian financial systems, it is important to consider the possibility that the flight of foreign capital from thesecountries worsened the situation by causing a severe stock market crash and exchange rate depreciation.5. Although the Euro will remove obstacles to free trade between European countries, each country will be forced to give up its own monetary policy.* 6. a. From Chapter 1: US output 1997=$8b; China output 1996=$.84b. Note that Chinas outputin 1997 is $(.84)*(1.09) b. Equating output for some time t in the future:8*(1.03)t=(.84*1.09)*(1.09)t 8/(.84*1.09)=(1.09/1.03)t 8.737=(1.058)tt =ln(8.737)/ln(1.058) 38yrsb. From Chapter 1: US output/worker in 1997=$29,800; China output/per worker in 1996=$70029.8*(1.03)t=(.7*1.09)*(1.09)tt65 yearsChapter 21. a. False.b. Uncertain: real or nominal GDP. c. True.d. True.e. False. The level of the CPI means nothing. Its rate of change tells us about inflation.f. Uncertain. Which index is better depends on what we are trying to measureinflation facedby consumers or by the economy as a whole.2. a. +$100; Personal Consumption Expenditures b. nochange:intermediategoodc. +$200 million; Gross PrivateDomesticFixedInvestment d. +$200 million; Net Exportse. no change: the jet was already counted when it was produced, i.e., presumably when Delta(or some other airline) bought it new as an investment.*3. a. Measured GDP increases by $10+$12=$22.b. True GDP should increase by much less than $22 because by working for an extra hour,you are no longer producing the work of cooking within the house. Since cooking within the house is a final service, it should count as part of GDP. Unfortunately, it is hard to measure the value of work within the home, which is why measured GDP does not include it.4. a. $1,000,000 the value of the silver necklaces.b. 1st Stage:$300,000.2ndStage:$1,000,00-$300,000=$700,000. GDP: $300,000+$700,000=$1,000,000.c. Wages: $200,000 + $250,000=$450,000.Profits: ($300,000-$200,000)+($1,000,000-$250,000-300,000)=$100,000+$450,000=$550,000. GDP:$450,000+$550,000=$1,000,000.5.a. 1998 GDP: 10*$2,000+4*$1,000+1000*$1=$25,0001999 GDP: 12*$3,000+6*$500+1000*$1=$40,000Nominal GDP has increased by 60%.b. 1998 real (1998) GDP: $25,0001999 real (1998) GDP: 12*$2,000+6*$1,000+1000*$1=$31,000Real (1998) GDP has increased by 24%.c. 1998 real (1999) GDP: 10*$3,000+4*$500+1,000*$1=$33,0001999 real (1999) GDP: $40,000.Real (1999) GDP has increased by 21.2%. d. True.6. a. 1998 base year:Deflator(1998)=1; Deflator(1999)=$40,000/$31,000=1.29Inflation=29%b. 1999 base year:Deflator(1998)=$25,000/$33,000=0.76; Deflator(1999)=1Inflation=(1-0.76)/0.76=.32=32% c. Yes7. a. 1998 real GDP = 10*$2,500 + 4*$750 + 1000*$1 = $29,0001999 real GDP = 12*$2,500 + 6*$750 + 1000*$1 = $35,500b. (35,500-29,000)/29,000 = .224 = 22.4%c. Deflator in 1998=$25,000/$29,000=.86Deflator in 1999=$40,000/$35,500=1.13Inflation = (1.13 -.86)/.86 = .314 = 31.4%.8. a. The quality of a routine checkup improves over time. Checkups now may include EKGs, for example. Medical services are particularly affected by this problem due to constantimprovements in medical technology.b. You need to know how the market values pregnancy checkups with and without ultra-soundsin that year.c. This information is not available since all doctors adopted the new technology simultaneously. Still, you can tell that the quality adjusted increase will be lower than 20%.*9. a. approximately 2.5% b. 1992 real GDP growth: 2.7%;unemployment rate Jan 92: 7.3%; unemployment rate Jan 93: 7.3%Supports Okuns law because the unemployment rate does not change when the growth rate of real GDP is near 2.5% c. -2 percentage points change in the unemployment rate; 5 percent GDP growth d. The growth rate of GDP must increase by 2.5 percentage points. Chapter 31. a. True.b. False. Government spending was 18% if GDP without transfers.c. False. The propensity to consume must be less than one for our model to be well defined.d.True. e. False.f. False. The increase in output is one times the multiplier.2. a. Y=160+0.6*(Y-100)+150+150 0.4Y=460-60 Y=1000b. YD=Y-T=1000-100=900 c. C=160+0.6*(900)=7003. a. No. The goods market is not in equilibrium. From part 2a, Demand=1000=C+I+G=700+150+150b. Yes. The goods market is in equilibrium.c. No. Private saving=Y-C-T=200. Public saving =T-G=-50. National saving (or in short, saving) equals private plus public saving, or 150. National saving equals investment.4. a. Roughly consistent. C/Y=700/1000=70%; I/Y=G/Y=150/1000=15%.b. Approximately -2%.c. Y needs to fall by 2%, or from 1000 to 980. The parameter c0 needs to fall by 20/multiplier,or by 20*(.4)=8. So c0 needs to fall from 160 to 152.d. The change in c0 (-8) is less than the change in GDP (-20) due to the multiplier.5. a. Y increases by 1/(1-c1) b. Y decreases by c1/(1- c1)c. The answers differ because spending affects demand directly, but taxes affect demand through consumption, and the propensity to consume is less than one.d. The change in Y equals 1/(1-c1) - c1/(1- c1) = 1. Balanced budget changes in G and T are not macroeconomically neutral.e. The propensity to consume has no effect because the balanced budget tax increase abortsthe multiplier process. Y and T both increase by on unit, so disposable income, and hence consumption, do not change.*6. a. The tax rate ilessthanone.b. Y=c0+c1YD+I+G impliesY=1/(1-c1+c1t1)*c0-c1t0+I+Gc. The multiplier = 1/(1-c1+c1t1) b2 d1/d2.Since a decrease in G reduces output, the condition under which a decrease in G increasesinvestment is b1b2 d1/d2.f. The interpretation of the condition in part e is that the effect on I from Y has to be less than the effect from i after controlling for the endogenous response of i and Y, determined by the slope of the LM curve, d1/d2.5. a. Y=C+I+G=200+.25*(Y-200)+150+.25Y-1000i+250Y=1100-2000ib.M/P=1600=2Y-8000i i=Y/4000-1/5c. Substituting b into a: Y=1000d. Substituting c into b: i=1/20=5%e. C=400; I=350; G=250; C+I+G=1000f. Y=1040; i=3%; C=410; I=380. A monetary expansion reduces the interest rate and increases output. The increase in output increases consumption. The increase in output and the fall in the interest rate increase investment.g. Y=1200; i=10%; C=450; I=350. A fiscal expansion increases output and the interest rate. The increase in output increases consumption.h. The condition from problem 3 is satisfied with equality (.25=1000*(2/8000), so contractionary fiscal policy will have no effect on investment. When G=100: i=0%; Y=800; I=350; and C=350.*6. a. The LM curve is flatb. Japan was experiencing a liquidity trap. c. Fiscal policy is more effective.7. a. Increase G (or reduce T) and increase M.b. Reduce G (or increase T) and increase M. The interest rate falls. Investment increases, since the interest rate falls while output remains constant.CHAPTER 61. a.Fals. b.Fals. c.Falsd.Fals e.Tru f.Falsg.Uncertai h.True.i. False.2. a. (Monthly hires+monthly separations)/monthly employment =6/93.8=6.4%b. 1.6/6.5=25%c. 2.4/6.5=37%. Duration is 1/.37 or 2.7 months. d. 4.9/57.3=9%.e. new workers: .35/4.9=7%; retirees: .2/4.9=4%.3. a and b. Answers will depend on when the page is accessed.c. The decline in unemployment does not equal the increase in employment, because the labor force is not constant. It has increased over the period.4. a. 66%; 66%*66%*66%= 29%; (66%)6 = 8%b. (66%)6