Thinking-about-the-high-price-of-house-in-Guangzhou英语论文.doc

Thinking about the high price of house in Guangzhou

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Dec 31, 2016
South China Normal University
Contents
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
1. Introduction 1
2. Material analysis 2
2.1 Land prices continued to rise and the government introduced earlier regulatory policies - the release of price adjustment signal violation 2
2.2 Land prices continue to rise contrary to the principles of Economics 3
2.2 Theoretical Basis of the Topic 3
2.3 Land prices continued to rise against the economic situation 3
3. The cause of the problem 5
3.1 Prices determine land prices, land prices and land is not an ordinary commodity, but financial products 5
3.2 Land auction price growth is used to maintain or improve housing prices, reduce the negative impact of regulatory policies - marketing tools 7
3.3Guangzhou city resource allocation uneven, resulting outside the city workers to buy a house in Guangzhou, the house price increase 7
4. Analysis on the future price of land price in Guangzhou 7
4.1 Housing prices and the people's income ratio 7
4.2 The central government's macroeconomic policy 8
4.3 The progress of science and technology 8
5. Conclusion 9
Bibliography 10

摘 要

中国的俗话经常说：“穿着、吃饭、居住、交通”。其中“居住”——房子本应该是人民日常生活的一个基本的生活要素。中国改革开放30多年，经济快速发展，人民的物质生活得到极大的改善。广州市作为中国南方的中心城市，人均收入更是达到中等发达国家的收入水平。但在这个社会繁荣的背后，缺掩盖不了一个事实：人民连基本的生活要素都保证不了——房子作为人民基本的基本生活要素之一，大部分人民都买不起，高昂的房价已让普通人民难以承受。在政府多重政策调控和社会经济下行压力较大的情况下，房价、地价还继续屡创新高。普通的市民已经难以承受如此之高的房价了。
关键词：房价 地价 金融产品 投机

iii

Abstract
As the Chinese saying goes, "dress, eat, live, transport"，the "living" - the house should be a basic element of daily life for people. With the reform in China, opening up more than 30 years and rapid economic development, people's material life has been greatly improved. As the central city of South China, the per capita income of Guangzhou is higher than that of the developed countries. However, in this society behind the prosperity, lack not disguise the fact that even the basic elements of life: for example,people can not guarantee the people's basic house as one of the basic elements of life, most people can not afford the high prices so that ordinary people become unbearable. In the case of multiple government policy regulation and social economic downward pressure, prices, land prices continue being high. Ordinary people can not afford such a high price of the house。

Key words: Housing price,Land price,Financial products,Speculation

Thinking about the high price of house in Guangzhou
1. Introduction
In November 2016, the Guangzhou municipal government sold 11 lands, including 9 homestead and 2 cases of commercial real estate, the price started from 18 billion RMB to 800 million RMB. Final transaction price can be found as below:

In October 2016, the District of Guangzhou city housing prices can be found as below：

The above figure shows that, after the two land auction, regional land price in Guangzhou city is fully refreshed, then the floor price, Baiyun New Town,Liwan guanggang New Town entered the era of 40 thousand yuan, Panyu District 30 thousand yuan, Nansha District 15 thousand yuan. In contrast to the Guangzhou District in October prices in contrast to the prices in Guangzhou in October, the auction price has recently been found recently in the sale of housing prices which is outperformed.

2. Material analysis
2.1 land prices continued rising and the government introduced earlier regulatory policies - the release of price adjustment signal violation
In October 4, 2016 the Guangzhou municipal government suddenly announced the property market regulation policy, "opinion" the office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government on the real estate market in our city to further promote the steady and healthy development The general office of the Guangzhou municipal government: "the general office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government on further promoting the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in our city,Oct 4th 2016，
, the main opinions published: The credit limit restriction policy is strictly enforced, the supply of residential land is increasing, supervise of the real estate development enterprises and intermediary institutions is strengthened, the real estate market of illegal acts is severely punished. Mainly introduce the regulation policy: The buyers did not register name on a house, the first suite loan is between 20% to 30%, The buyers to buy a house but do not repay the loan of the first house, used to pay 30% down payment, and now is interest 10%; The buyers used to buy a house, the down payment from 40% to 70%, the rates interest 30% .Then, in the evening of October 5th, the Guangzhou provident fund center issued a document required(requiring people ) to apply for individual housing provident fund loans to buy the first set of workers occupied housing families, with the minimum down payment ratio 30%. With 1 sets of housing but no record of housing loans or settlement of the corresponding purchase loans, the minimum down payment ratio of 30%, interest rates rise to 10%. The purpose is to cool down the real estate market.
After the introduction of this series of new deal, the market has become cautious atmosphere. Guangzhou city in October 2, 2014 sold 528 houses, this is golden week (October 1st -10 6) second, October 3rd has been reduced to 259 houses, and in October 4th, 5 in Guangzhou on the day of the new deal introduced, the market is just shot up to 354 houses, 349 sets, in October 6th, only 220 sets of transactions the house. It is reported there is no reason for the property market and the emergence of new irrational assault looting housing. The market tends to be rational, and the regulatory policy has a certain effect. But why in November 2016 the price of land auction in Guangzhou suddenly go over the price?
2.2 Land prices continue to rise contrary to the principles of Economics
After the introduction of the Guangzhou municipal government regulation of the real estate policy: by reason, the government through administrative means to limit the purchase of a part of the crowd, the number of houses will certainly reduce the number of people. It can be found in the official website of the Guangzhou real estate market, sunshine home edge Guangzhou housing and Urban Construction Committee: "daily commercial housing sales information", sunshine home edge network, December 30, 2016,
The daily commodity housing sales information such as map data:

Although it is the data in Dec,2016, but we can see that the supply of real estate in Guangzhou is sufficient. According to the "economic theory" N.Gregory Mankiw，Primciples of economic，fifth deition,American:Cengage Learning,2009,PP.71-117
which is about supply, demand and price theory: In a fully competitive market, reducing demand with the same supply with affect the equilibrium which will lead to lower commodity prices.However, the high price of land auction in Guangzhou in November will inevitably lead to an increase in house prices, which is contrary to the economic theory
2.3 Land prices continued to rise against the economic situation
According to the <2015 national economic and social development statistical bulletin of Guangzhou> Guangzhou Bureau of statistics, Guangzhou investigation team：National economic and social development statistical bulletin of Guangzhou in 2015》，《Guangzhou daily》3-26-2016
in the past 5 years, the GDP Xiong ye .Gao,《Western economics. Macro part. Fourth Edition》，Renmin University of China press, 2007，pp433-436
of Guangzhou, the income of workers as shown below:

1991—2015年广州市职工平均工资（货币工资）表
年   度
年 均 工 资  （元）
月 均 工 资 （元）
2011
57468
4789
2012
63756
5313
2013
 69696 
5808
2014
74244
6187
2015
 81168
 6764
注：月均工资为广州市城镇单位职工月平均工资
According to Guangzhou ten years since the trend of price comparison chart Weng Xiaolin: Guangzhou District prices rose 193% this year, you bought the right ten? Phoenix site - Guangzhou Station,4-8-2015，
, as follows:
It can be observed from the above 3 charts: The GDP value of Guangzhou city in 2011 2015 from $1 trillion and 240 billion in 2011 increased to 2015 of about 1 trillion and 810 billion yuan (RMB, same below), the average annual growth of 9%, Guangzhou city urban units in the average monthly wage of workers from 6764 2011 4789 to 2015, an average annual increase of 8.4%. But over (in ) the past 10 years, the average price of housing in Guangzhou increased by more than 300%, with an average annual growth of about 20%, and it has far exceeded the GDP and the average wage increase. In the case of such a large increase in housing prices, land prices continue to refreshing, it is difficult to understand.
3. The cause of the problem
3.1 Prices determine land prices, land prices and land is not an ordinary commodity, but financial products
According to Marx's "Das Kapital" of commodity definition: "goods meet certain needs of the people, used to exchange products. The basic attribute of commodity is value and use value. The value of use refers to the commodity to meet the needs of some of the attributes, value is defined in the commodity in the undifferentiated human labor" Kary Marx,Das Kapital,Moscow:Progress Publishers,1887,pp.1-2

The so-called financial products refers to the financial management of the various carriers, including currency, gold, foreign exchange, securities, etc.. That is to say, these financial products is the financial market trading, supply and demand sides formed the prices of financial products through the market competition principle, such as interest rate or rate of return, the final completion of the transaction, to the purpose of financing.
Every financial product should always have the important characteristics of price and income. Price is the core element of financial products. Because the purpose of selling financial products is to get the equivalent of the price of income, the investor's investment is equal to the price of the financial products. Yield is another key element of financial products, which represents the ratio of the income of the product to its holders Bin Lv,Guoqiu Li,Personal finance theory, planning and Practice,China:Shanghai Univer press, 2006,pp.1-10
.
Although there is no official statistics on the number of households living in Guangzhou to buy a house for investment or investment, but the Chinese people regard bank savings as the main investment tool, but now the bank interest is very low.Bond markets in china is even smaller.Given thesn limited investment choices chinese households ofen use housing an alternative investment vehicle.In this section,we disscuss the performance of housing an an investment vehicle,in comparison to bank deposits and stock market Fang Hanming , et al, <Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom>,30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics,2015
.
The house is not used to live, but was used as a financial tool for some buyers, as financial products hype financial products. According to the real estate journal data: 2009, the balance of China's residents is between only 4 trillion and 760 billion yuan, this figure reached $16 trillion and 400 billion in June this year. In other words, the balance of the mortgage in less than 7 years turned over the time of 4 times. At the same time, the bank to the residents to increase leverage". In the first half of this year, 31% of China's new loans to invest in the field of home loans, compared with 2014 and in 2015, respectively, an increase of nearly 15 and 10 percentage points." YuJia Li,Buy a house "leverage": <international experience and risk prevention>,<China Real Estate>,2016 28

Such a large proportion of the growth of the mortgage, the house has been used for investment and speculation the best proof.
3.2 Land auction price growth is used to maintain or improve housing prices, reduce the negative impact of regulatory policies - marketing tools
According to the herding effect and the research conclusion of China's real estate data obtained: (1) with the rapid rise in housing prices, China's provinces and cities in the "residential" and "office" and "commercial housing market have obvious herd behavior; (2) commercial housing market prices and increase the degree of herd behavior between has formed a mutually reinforcing feedback effect” Ke Shengpei1 and Huang Jing2,<Research on the herding effect of real estate market based on the nonlinear model of CSAD>,<Management Review>2012 9
Because the land price is one barometer of the real estate market, and according to the material map can know the real estate under construction and sale of the real estate area is far more than the land auction area, for marketing, can maintain or even improve the existing in the real estate price by herding. To offset the cost of additional land auction price increases. At this stage, the implementation of China two-child policy, is also used to raise prices, as a marketing slogan.
3.3 Guangzhou city resource allocation uneven, resulting outside the city workers to buy a house in Guangzhou, the house price increase
Guangzhou city is the center city of south China, as the capital of Guangdong Province, occupies three level grade a hospital 80% of the province's University, 60%, owns the passenger volume of third airports, the subway mileage third......The quality of public facilities resources is relatively concentrated, and it will attract some foreign workers to buy a house in Guangzhou increased demand.
4. Analysis on the future price of land price in Guangzhou
4.1Housing prices and the people's income ratio
Housing price income ratio is an important indicator reflecting the affordability of residents purchase. A recent study showed that "reasonable limit China's 35 large and medium-sized city residents and permanent income ratio was 7.6, and 28 of the city has more than the upper limit, which ranked first in Guangzhou; and the two or three line of the city has enlarged the gap between” Chao Fan and Xueqi Wang,<A study on the price to income ratio of 35 large and medium cities in China>,<Statistical Research> 2016 8
.As the housing and Guangzhou city residents' income has exceeded the warning line, the Guangzhou government will put forward policies to control prices.
4.2 The central government's macroeconomic policy
Because of the bubble in real estate prices, the central government has restricted the size of bank loans to real estate. The national urbanization process is accelerating, resulting in some of the people working in Guangzhou to return home. Government land revenue reform, property tax may