fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析.doc

中文3415字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 处： American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 86 Issue 3 作 者： Makki, Shiva S.,Somwaru, Agapi 原 文：IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ANDTRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCEFROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIESForeign direct investment (FDI) and trade are often seen as important catalysts for economic growth in the developing countries. FDI is an important vehicle of technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. FDI also stimulates domestic investment and facilitates improvements in human capital and institutions in the host countries. International trade is also known to be an instrument of economic growth (Romer). Trade facilitates more efficient production of goods and services by shifting production to countries that have comparative advantage in producing Them. Even though past studies show that FDI and trade have a positive impact on economic growth, the size of such impact may vary across countries depending on the level of human capital, domestic investment, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and trade policies. The literature continues to debate the role of FDI and trade in economic growth as well as the importance of economic and institutional developments in fostering FDI and trade.This article analyzes the role of FDI and trade in promoting economic growth across selected developing countries and the interaction among FDI, trade, and economic growth. We examine data from sixty-six developing countries over the last three decades. Our results suggest that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment are important sources of economic growth for developing countries. We find a strong positive interaction between FDI and trade in advancing economic growth. Our results also show that FDI stimulates domestic investment. The contribution of FDI to economic growth is enhanced by its positive interaction with human capital and sound macroeconomic policies.Methodology and Data Our econometric model is derived from a production function in which the level of a countrys productivity depends on FDI, trade, domestic investment, human capital, and initial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The model is based on endogenous growth theory, in the tradition of Balasubramanyam, Salisu, and Sapsford and Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee, where FDI contributes to economic growth directly through new technologies and other inputs as well as indirectly through improving human capital, infrastructure, and institutions. To assess empirically the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth, we specify the following basic formulation:g=a+b1FDI+b2TRD+b3HC+b4K+b5G0 +c1FDITRD+c2FDIHC+c3FDIK （1） +d1TRI+d2TX+d3GC+ewhere g is the per capita GDP growth rate; TRD, the trade (exports plus imports) of goods and services; HC, the stock of human capital; K, the domestic capital investment; G0, the initial GDP(initial stock); IRT, the inflation rate; TX, the tax on income, profits, and capital gains in the host country expressed as percentage of current revenue; and GC is government consumption. The variables FDI, TRD, K, GC are measured as ratios to GDP. We also account for interaction of FDI with trade and domestic investment, in addition to human capital. Past empirical studies have indicated that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. We expect the estimated coefficients for these variables to be positive. We also expect positive interactions between FDI and trade and FDI and domestic capital investment in promoting economic growth. The stock of human capital in a host country is critical for absorbing foreign knowledge and an important determinant of whether potential spillovers will be realized. We postulate not only a positive relationship between FDI and the GDP growth rate but also a positive interaction between FDI and human capital in advancing economic growth. The application of advanced technologies embodied in FDI requires a sufficient level of human capital. That is, the higher the level of human capital in a host country, the higher the effect of FDI on the countrys economic growth. One of the key questions regarding FDI and economic growth is: “What is the interaction between FDI and domestic investment”? As argued before, FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of capital, technology, and knowledge to host countries, thereby generating high-growth opportunities. In practice, however, the growth-enhancing impact of FDI depends critically on the absorptive capacity of a host country and whether FDI “crowds out” its domestic investment. Thus, an important question to be addressed is: “What is the extent to which FDI substitutes for or complements domestic investment”? In our empirical model, we include FDI and domestic investment separately as well as an interaction term between FDI and domestic investment (FDIK). A positive coefficient for the interaction term would suggest that FDI and domestic investment (K) reinforce (complement) each other in advancing economic growth. The initial GDP, measured in terms of constant U.S. dollars, controls for preexisting economic and institutional conditions in the host economy. We expect the initial GDP (expressed in logarithms) to be negatively related with GDP growth rates. The inflation rate is a key indicator of fiscal and monetary policies of a country. A lower inflation rate should mean a better climate for investment, trade, and, therefore, economic growth. Government consumption and tax on income, profits, and capital gains are proxies for institutions and infrastructure in the host countries. Since our objective is to quantify the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth, we focus on developing Countries. Data for our analysis are obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. However, we limit our analysis to 1971 through 2000 because the flow of FDI to most developing countries began in 1970s. All variables represent the average over the following decades: 19711980, 19811990, and 19912000.We estimate a system of three equations, where the dependent variables are the mean values of per capita GDP growth rates in each decade. We estimate the system of equations using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method as well as instrumental variable (three-stage least squares, TSLS) approach. The SUR estimation allows for different error variances in each equation and for correlation of these errors across equations, while the instrumental variable technique allows us to overcome potential biases induced by endogeneity problems between FDI and economic growth.Empirical Results The purpose of our empirical investigation is to analyze the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth and to examine how FDI interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investment in advancing economic growth in developing countries. We control for preexisting economic conditions by including initial GDP as one of the explanatory variables. We also account for differences in macroeconomic policies in the host countries by including variables, such as inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption.Table 1 presents the econometric results. Regressions 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, different variants of equation (1) above are estimated using the SUR method. Regression 1.1 is our basic specification with explanatory variables of FDI, trade, human capital, domestic investment, and initial GDP. Regression 1.2 extends 1.1 to include interaction of FDI with trade, human capital, and domestic investment. Regression 1.3 builds on regression 1.2 by controlling for inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption. Our results show that most coefficients have the expected signs, particularly in specification 1.3. The estimated R2 are generally low but reasonable given the cross sectional nature of the data used.Regression 1.1 reveals that FDI and trade have a positive impact on economic growth after controlling for human capital, domestic investment, and initial income. The estimated coefficient for FDI is positive and statistically significant while the estimated coefficient for trade is not statistically significant. Since the coefficient of FDI is larger than the coefficient of trade, it indicates the differential impact of FDI in the host countrys economic growth. The coefficient for human capital is positive, implying that human capital contributes positively to economic growth (significant only at a confidence level of 88%). The coefficients for domestic investment and initial income are not statistically significant. Including interactions between FDI and trade, FDI and human capital, and FDI and domestic investment not only improves the overall performance of the estimation but also allows us to capture their interaction effects on economic growth.In regression 1.2, the interaction of FDI and trade yields a positive and statistically significant coefficient while the effects of FDI and trade, by themselves, are positive but not statistically significant. Regression 1.2 also reveals that the FDI interacts positively with domestic investment in advancing economic growth. The estimated coefficient for domestic investment is positive and statistically significant at a confidence level of 90%. The estimated coefficients indicate that host countries benefit positively both from FDI, itself, and through FDIs positive interaction with trade and domestic investment. The interaction between FDI and human capital, although positive, is not statistically significant. Regression 1.3 includes additional variables to control for macroeconomic policies and institutional stability that could have a significant impact on FDI and trade and, thus, on economic growth. Recent literature indicates that FDI is greatly influenced by host country policies, such as monetary, fiscal, and open market policies. We include inflation rates, tax income, and government consumption. The results of regression 1.3 reveal that FDI and trade contribute positively to economic growth, but the estimated coefficients are not statistically significant. The stock of human capital and domestic investment, on the other hand, has positive and statistically significant coefficients. The results also indicate that FDI positively interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investment. But only FDItrade interaction is statistically significant. This implies that FDI and trade complement each other in advancing growth rate of income in developing countries. This result is consistent with the idea that flow of advanced technology brought along by FDI can increase the growth rate of the host economy by interacting with that countrys trade.The diverse experiences from developing countries suggest that FDI and trade, by themselves, may not guarantee economic growth. A countrys economic growth is also affected by its macroeconomic policies and institutional stability. Sound macroeconomic policies and institutional stability are necessary preconditions for FDI-driven growth to materialize. The estimated coefficients for the three policy variablesinflation rate, government consumption, and tax on income, profits, and capital gainsare negative and statistically significant. This implies that lowering the inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption would promote economic growth. Lower inflation rates would indicate that the host countrys macroeconomic policies are stable and disciplined. Lower tax burden would make the investments, foreign and domestic, more profitable. Decreasing the government consumption would leave more money for investments.FDI “Crowds-In” Domestic Investment One of the important questions raised in the literature is whether FDI augments a host countrys capital investment or crowds out domestic investment. Even though not statistically significant, the positive interaction between FDI and domestic investment in regression 1.3 implies that domestic investment is unlikely to be crowded out in developing countries. To further strengthen our argument, we estimate the contribution of FDI to domestic investment after controlling for trade, human capital, initial income levels, and various macroeconomic policy variables. Regression 1.4 in table 1 presents the results of this estimation using the SUR method. The results indicate FDI has a positive effect on domestic investment, as the estimated coefficient is positive and statistically significant. This positive relationship implies that FDI stimulates or crowds-in domestic investment. This finding is consistent with Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee. Even though trade, by itself, is not statistically significant, trade interacts positively with FDI on domestic investment. The estimated coefficient for the FDItrade interaction term is positive and significant at the 90% confidence level.Endogeneity ProblemsThe correlation between FDI and growth rate could arise from an endogenous determination of FDI. That is, FDI, itself, may be influenced by innovations in the stochastic process governing growth rates (Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee). For example, market reforms in host countries could increase both GDP growth rates and the inflow of FDI simultaneously. In this case, the presence of correlation between FDI and the country-specific error term would bias the estimated coefficients. The endogeneity problem is addressed by using the instrumental variables. One of the major problems with the instrumental variable estimation method is the difficulty in identifying instruments that are highly correlated with FDI (or trade) but not with the error term. We use lagged values of FDI, lagged values of trade, and log value of total GDP as instruments in a TSLS method. The results of the TSLS model (reported in table 2, regressions 2.12.3) show that the instrumental variable estimation yields qualitatively similar results as those obtained by the SUR method. The estimated coefficients on FDI and trade, by themselves, are positive but statistically insignificant. The interactive term of FDI and trade is positive and statistically significant. This alternative estimation also suggests that our results are robust.本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 处： American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 86 Issue 3 作 者： Makki, Shiva S.,Somwaru, Agapi 译 文：FDI和贸易对经济增长的影响：来自发展中国家的实证分析引言在发展中国家FDI和贸易常常被看作刺