2024中国物流地产.pdf

致：2024 China LogisticsApril 202401Macroeconomics0302Leasing Market0803Investment Trends1804Market Outlook2101MacroeconomicsChina LogisticsNon-bonded Grade A Market Value Chain4ManufacturingConsumptionTradeUpstreamSupplierEnd Product WarehouseEnd Product WarehouseFactoryEnd Product WarehouseStoresEnd UserOverseas Distribution WarehouseOverseas End UserOverseas End UserRegionalDistributionWarehouseCityDistributionWarehouseEnd UserDomesticDistribution WarehouseHigh-tech manufacturing growth supports the demand for warehouses E-commerce and 3PLs account for the majority of leasing demandCross-border e-commerce playersdrive significant growth in international tradeChina LogisticsManufacturingAs China transitions into the Industry 4.0 era,manufacturing continues to be a pivotal driver of logistics development.The expansion of numerous high-tech manufacturers is fuelling a significant increase in demand for Grade A warehouses.Noteworthy growth rates of 54.0%for solar cell production and 30.3%for New Energy Vehicles(NEVs)highlight the burgeoning demand for industrial goods.The China Passenger Car Association(CPCA)estimates that the penetration rate of NEVs in China reached 36%in 2023,prompting several brands to establish/expand manufacturing facilities.Regional leasing patterns vary.In Southern China,light manufacturing companies prioritize operational flexibility within warehouses.Eastern China,at the forefront of supporting Chinas transition to a low-carbon economy,is witnessing the construction of numerous eco-friendly warehouses with LEED certifications.Meanwhile,Western China,buoyed by the rapid ascent of NEVs,is contributing to the stability of warehouse leasing demand.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,China Passenger Car Association(CPCA)Value Added of Industry(YoY)in 2023 ManufacturingAutomobileChemical Material&ProductElectronic Machinery&Equipment5.0%13.0%9.6%12.9%5-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%201920202021202220232024Fixed Asset Investment YTD(YoY)Electrical Machinery&EquipmentAutomobile ManufacturingInstrument&MeterChemical Material&ProductComputer,Communication&Other Electronic EquipmentOverall ManufacturingPowering economic growthChina LogisticsConsumptionBenefiting from a series of consumption stimulus plans,the consumer market recovered in 2023,particularly in the F&B and retail sectors.The express delivery business maintained its vigour,with Henan experiencing significant growth compared to 2019.Online retail sales have continued to grow steadily,with e-commerce platforms and third-party logistics(3PL)companies retaining a substantial share of the warehouse leasing market.Notably,live-streaming e-commerce has played a pivotal role in driving e-commerce growth throughout the year,with companies such as TikTok,Kuaishou,and Red accelerating the expansion of their live-streaming sales business.Simultaneously,the Customer to Manufacturer(C2M)model is maturing,gradually reducing businesses reliance on front-end inventory through its decentralized sales approach,bringing notable changes to the consumer market landscape.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,Ministry of TransportNB:E-commerce penetration rate=Online retail sales/Retail sales615%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecChinas E-commerce Penetration Rate201920202021202220230%1%2%3%4%5%TibetInner MongoliaXinjiangQinghaiNingxiaYunnanGuizhouShanxiHunanGansuChongqingShaanxiGuangxiHainanSichuanhubeiAnhuiShandongJiangxiJilinLiaoningHeilongjiangJiangsuBeijingFujianHenanTianjinHebeiZhejiangGuangdongShanghaiExpress Business Revenue to GDP ratio20192023Substantial untapped potentialChina LogisticsTradeChinas international trade demonstrated steady growth in 2023,with notable increases in trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.Exports continued to rise,building upon a robust foundation.The export sector saw remarkable developments,particularly in the New Three products(electric vehicles,lithium-ion batteries,and solar cells),which surpassed the trillion-yuan mark for the first time,with growth of nearly 30%YoY.Cross-border e-commerce exports also flourished,driven by major players such as Shein,Temu,and TikTok,resulting in a 19.6%increase in e-commerce export scale,surpassing the overall foreign trade export growth rate of 0.6%.Furthermore,prominent cross-border e-commerce entities are actively establishing distribution warehouses and hubs in the Southern China market.Shein,for instance,plans to establish a supply chain headquarters in the Greater Bay Area(GBA),a move expected to generate substantial warehousing demand in the region.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,Guolian SecuritiesNB:Export e-commerce penetration=Export e-commerce value/Export value5.0%6.2%6.4%6.5%7.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202520192020202120222023RMB trnExport E-commerceExport ValueExport E-commerce Pentration Rate17.2 17.9 21.7 23.6 23.8 14.3 14.3 17.4 18.0 18.0 05101520253035404520192020202120222023RMB trnInternational TradeExportImport7Finding new routes and new markets02Leasing MarketChina LogisticsMarket SupplyThe non-bonded Grade A warehouse market stock in 31 major cities surpassed 90 million sqm in 2023.The Eastern China market stands out,accounting for over one-third of Chinas total stock.With a continuous influx of supply in recent years,some developers have opted for rental trade-offs in order to bring down vacancy rates.Northern China experienced a notable increase in new supply starting in 2021,particularly in Langfang,Tianjin,and Beijing.In contrast,Western China has exhibited a gradual deceleration since 2020,allowing for market absorption of vacant stock.Southern China observed a peak in supply,with significant surges in Guangzhou and Dongguan.Concurrently,driven by robust demand from cross-border e-commerce,the market experienced exceptionally high levels of demand.Central China exhibited stable demand for transportation and consumption.However,due to the supply over the past three years,the market still face vacancy pressure.Supply remains high but with regional variationsEastern China:Shanghai,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Nanjing,Jiaxing,Ningbo,Wuxi,Hangzhou,NantongNorthern China:Beijing,Tianjin,Langfang,Shenyang,Jinan,QingdaoSouthern China:Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Dongguan,Foshan,HuizhouWestern China:Chengdu,Chongqing,Xian,Kunming,GuiyangCentral China:Wuhan,Zhengzhou,Changsha0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.020192020202120222023mn sqmNon-bonded Grade A Warehouse Historical SupplyEasternNorthernSouthernWesternCentralSource:Savills Research9China LogisticsLeasing Market DemandA slower-than-expected economic recovery,has meant that tenants have become more conservative10The number of LEED-certified warehouses in the market has witnessed a significant increase in recent years.Some tenants are increasingly inclined to rent green warehouses due to the potential long-term cost savings associated with sustainable operations.SustainabilityBeyond traditional considerations like location and facilities,tenants are now evaluating the operational capabilities of developers when choosing warehouses.This shift involves assessing the developers ability to coordinate supply chain resources and collaborate with local authorities.Value-Added ServicesAs the e-commerce tenants increases,market leases become more flexible.Furthermore,developers are incorporating flexible termination clauses for tenants committed to longer stays,aiming to mitigate potential default costs.Contract FlexibilityThe influx of new projects has provided tenants with ample options,enhancing their negotiating power.Some developers have responded by not only reducing rents but also offering extended rent-free periods to bolster tenant security.Rent SensitivityChina LogisticsRentsNationwide rents experienced downward pressure in 2023,with average rents in major cities declining by 4.3%.Southern China rents exhibited relative resilience,showing a slight year-on-year increase in 2023.Conversely,other regions rents experienced declines of varying magnitudes.The decline in rents in first tier cities has eased some of the financial burden of some tenants meaning that they are less likely to relocate to lower cost alternatives further away from key consumption hubs.This should help to buoy demand in first tier cities and absorbs some of the excess supply built up over the last couple of years.Source:Savills ResearchMarket needs time absorb excess supply,rents continue to face downwards pressureBase period:2015H1First-tier cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,ShenzhenSatellite cities:Tianjin,Langfang,Jiaxing,Suzhou(incl.Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Jiaxing,Foshan,Dongguan,HuizhouOther cities:Shenyang,Qingdao,Jinan,Wuxi,Nanjing,Ningbo,Hangzhou,Xian,Chengdu,Chongqing,Kunming,Guiyang,Wuhan,Zhengzhou,Changsha11809010011012013014015015161718192021222324H1/2015=100Grade A non-bonded warehouse rental indexFirst tierSatelliteOthersChina Logistics2023 Non-bonded Grade A Market City OverviewNorthern and Eastern markets could take longer to stabilize12Source:Savills ResearchNB:Suzhou includes Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%(0.5)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5TianjinLangfangBeijingShenyangJinanQingdaoSuzhouShanghaiJiaxingHangzhouNanjingWuxiNingboNantongWuhanZhengzhouChangshaChengduChongqingXianKunmingGuiyangGuangzhouFoshanDongguanHuizhouShenzhenNorthEastCentralWestSouthmn sqmSupply(LHS)Net Take-up(LHS)Vacancy(RHS)China LogisticsBeijingApproximately 188,000 sqm of new supply was added in Q4/2023,situated at Daxing Airport and Pinggu submarket.Rents remained comparatively high,leading some tenants to relocate to satellite cities throughout the year.BDIA and Pinggu submarkets,as newly planned logistics hubs,anticipate a surge in new supply in the forthcoming years.ShenyangThe market stock in Shenyang maintained around 1.89 million sqm,with a rise in net take-up and limited new supply.Demand is propelled by the citys role as a distribution hub and the requirements of e-commerce,food processing,and equipment manufacturing firms.TianjinTianjin boasts the largest market stock in the Northern market and witnessed substantial new supply throughout the year.Despite similar rents to Langfang,Tianjin faces challenges in attracting tenants from Beijing,with local developers employing low-price strategies to sustain vacancy rates.Wuqing,Binhai,Beichen,and Xiqing have established relatively mature logistics markets,featuring larger stock than other submarkets,while the emerging Jizhou submarket is anticipated to enhance connectivity between the Northern Tianjin and Beijing markets.LangfangIn 2023,Langfang saw the addition of approximately 1.46 million sqm of new supply,retaining its attractiveness for tenants seeking proximity to Beijing.Since 2021,Langfang has experienced a notable surge in supply,particularly in Guangyang,Anci,Guan,and Beixin Counties submarkets.JinanJinans non-bonded Grade A market observed limited new supply,resulting in a decline in net absorption and a rise in vacancy rates.Serving as a key industrial and logistics hub,Jinans Grade A warehouses primarily cater to local consumption demands.QingdaoA total stock of 1.46 million sqm,the main tenants are local home appliance and furniture manufacturing retailers.Qingdao has focused on modern logistics industry,and the demand for freight from RCEP-related national routes and China-Europe freight trains has increased,among which the Jiaozhou sub-market has performed particularly well.Northern ChinaSource:Savills ResearchNB:Projects in Qihe County,Dezhou are included in Jinan figuresStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateBeijing2.70 59.2 11.8%Tianjin6.0924.9 23.2%Langfang4.26 24.8 51.3%Shenyang1.89 17.218.5%Jinan1.82 26.320.8%Qingdao1.46 27.64.1%13China LogisticsShanghaiIn 2023,Shanghai witnessed a five-year high in new supply,with nearly 70%located in the Jinshan and Qingpu submarkets.A shift in the supply-demand dynamic led to a 1.4%decrease in market rental prices,discouraging some tenants from relocating.Q4 of 2023 saw the best net take-up levels,particularly in submarkets like Jinshan and Songjiang,indicating significant improvement.Expectations for 2024 include a continued influx of supply,especially with several large projects from leading developers slated to open in the first half of the year,potentially increasing vacancy rates in corresponding submarkets.SuzhouWith a market stock exceeding 11 million sqm,Suzhou remains Chinas largest logistics market.In 2023,Suzhou proper alone added over 1.2 million sqm of new supply,primarily in the Wujiang submarket,likely putting upward pressure on rental prices.Greater Suzhous competitive rents attracted manufacturing enterprises from neighbouring regions,distinguishing it from Shanghai.NanjingNon-bonded Grade A warehouse supply in Nanjing decreased in 2023,with new supply only recorded in the Jiangningsubmarket.Market absorption rebounded,leading to a drop in vacancy rates to 20.5%.The Nanjing metropolitan areas dense population and robust consumer base sustain stable demand for warehousing.JiaxingSupply in Jiaxing City slowed in 2023,maintaining stable rents.Local manufacturing and vertical industries primarily drive demand,with its strategic location also serving adjacent cities like Shanghai.New projects aim to attract high-tech manufacturing tenants,including digital economy,pharmaceuticals,healthcare,and new energy sectors.WuxiStringent land sales/lease requirements limit new logistics projects in Wuxi,keeping rents and vacancy rates stable.Government support for electronic information technology and machinery manufacturing industries,coupled with a strong GDP,ensures sustained demand for warehousing.HangzhouNo new supply was added in Hangzhou in 2023.Renowned as a national hub for live-streaming e-commerce,3PL,and e-commerce firms continue to dominate tenancy.Growing Internet industry development attracts demands from high-tech electronic manufacturing industries,benefiting Hangzhou,Huzhou,and Shaoxing.Eastern ChinaSource:Savills ResearchNB:Suzhou includes Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang;Hangzhou includes some Huzhou&Shaoxing projectsStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateShanghai7.4649.4 16.3%Suzhou11.8137.8 29.1%Jiaxing2.4231.3 3.8%Ningbo4.2332.5 31.8%Hangzhou2.41 32.2 14.5%Nanjing2.8935.5 10.8%Shanghai2.44 31.3 20.5%14China LogisticsGuangzhouRecorded over 1 million sqm of new supply,primarily in Huadu and Zengcheng submarkets.Possesses substantial reserve of industrial/logistics land,ensuring market equilibrium.Primary leasing demand from 3PLs,e-commerce companies,and the automotive industry.FoshanNew supply in Foshan has slowed in recent years.Stable vacancy rate and rents.Demand for non-bonded Grade A warehouses from cross-border e-commerce companies.Sanshui and Gaoming submarkets offer relatively low