will-tablets-kill-the-pc-star-(平板电脑是个人电脑的终结者)外文翻译大学论文.doc

平板电脑是个人电脑的终结者？数月以来，电脑行业的观察人士一直发出警告，说平板电脑势必挤压或蚕食个人电脑的销售，因为其可以运行很多同样的任务，但价格更便宜，也更适合如今这种忙碌奔波的生活方式。目前，市场中只有几款平板电脑大行其道，主要是苹果公司(Apple)的iPad和三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的Galaxy Tab在唱主角。不过，几十家公司已经宣布或计划在未来数月推出各种各样的平板电脑产品，从生产厚实得像砖头一样的便携视频播放器的法国爱可视公司(Archos)，到生产电脑显示器的优派(ViewSonic)等等，不一而足。2010年11月26日，个人电脑销量目前排名第二的宏基公司(Acer)的首席执行长表示，未来几年内，公司将在平板电脑的销售方面占据主流。华尔街也在忙着构建数学模型：2010年11月22日，花旗集团(Citigroup)研究电脑、软体和半导体的分析师团队发布一份报告，说2011年的平板电脑销量将达到3500万台，其中苹果公司的iPad将占四分之三。同期，个人电脑的全球销量将接近4亿台。虽然平板电脑的销量相对较小，但花旗集团的分析师表示，3500万台的销量将导致个人电脑明年的预期销量减少约1100万台左右，从而把个人电脑的销售增长率从原先预期的12%降低至9%。然而，花旗集团的预测可能对于个人电脑市场过于乐观。11月22日，券商FBR Capital Markets专门跟踪英代尔公司(Intel)的克莱格伯格(Craig Berger)给出一个更大胆的预测：苹果公司在2011年将卖出4000万台平板电脑，其他厂商将合计卖出3000万台。伯格警告说，平板电脑的发展对个人电脑不利，每售出2.5台平板电脑，个人电脑的销量就会减少1台。即使伯格的数位也可能太低：11月23日，行业杂志电子时报(DigiTimes)的一份报导称，为苹果公司生产iPad的中国富士康公司(Foxconn Electronics)正在把iPad的产量提高到每年7000万台。11月24日，电子时报的另一篇报导预测，除了苹果公司的产量之外，明年其他厂商还将生产3000万台平板电脑。虽然每台平板电脑的售出将给个人电脑带来多大的影响尚存在争议，但有一点毋庸置疑：目前的资料已经显示，今年三季度的个人电脑销量比前两季度有很大缩水。2010年10月，权威调研机构Gartner公司发布报告称，今年三季度笔记本电脑在个人消费市场的销量为近几年来的最低水准。11月末，惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)给出销量放缓的最新证据，称其笔记本电脑三季度的销量比去年同期下降3%，而整体销售金额减少了10%。不管平板电脑卖出去多少台，有一点我们知道：平板电脑时代会给电脑行业的利润率带来一场浩劫，因为它的存在就等于说，消费类电子产品的微利润率已经向电脑产品丰厚的利润空间发起了挑战。2010年10月，苹果公司的毛利率从一年前的41.8%降至36.9%，低于华尔街38%的预计，股价因此遭到重创。苹果公司预测，其利润率在截止到12月份的下一财季将进一步跌至36%。生产黑莓(BlackBerry)手机的加拿大RIM公司(Research In Motion)将在明年1月推出PlayBook平板电脑，与苹果公司展开正面对抗。公司在2010年9月16日公布的二季度财报好于市场预测，三季度的预期也同样如此，但公司表示，其三季度的毛利率将从二季度的44.5%降至42%。未来数月，随着功能丰富的平板电脑以越来越低的价格进入市场，IT行业的利润率受到侵蚀的消息将变得越来越多。对电脑制造商来说，利润率下降意味着公司必须制定很好的策略，通过销量提升来弥补利润下跌，或者推出其他利润率更高的产品。苹果公司将在未来游刃有余：它能通过iPad将传统电脑的消费者争取过来，还能吸引更多的人使用其线上服务MobileMe。谷歌公司(Google)也应该不错，能通过在非iPad平板电脑上安装的安卓(Android)作业系统在全世界范围扩大影响力，以广告销售获取利润。RIM公司的战略似乎存在一些不确定性。PlayBook使用一种独特的平板电脑作业系统，公司好像并没有充分利用好既有的优势，即其控制的网路，而是掉入苹果公司制定的游戏规则陷阱之中软体之争。英代尔公司的命运似乎与其新开发的芯片息息相关，这种号称能够“革命性”降低电池能耗的芯片跟平板电脑可谓天作之合，但花旗集团的分析师在11月末的报告中写道，结果究竟如何，要到2012年才能看出来。不过，传统电脑的前景也并非一片黑暗。到某个时点，平板电脑的盛行将提升传统个人电脑的销量，以便用户对家庭和办公室的电脑应用进行管理，同时作为家庭的一个终端，存放平板电脑传输过来的内容。信誉良好的高管团队确保惠普公司能够继续前行：惠普公司前任首席执行长马克赫德(Mark Hurd) 在2010年8月因行为不当下台后，凯萨琳赖斯嘉(Catherine Lesjak)一直担任公司的临时首席执行长，她带领公司实现了好于市场预期的第三财季表现。2010年11月22日，她与惠普负责大客户销售团队的安利沃莫尔(Ann Livermore) 共同出席了电话会议，该业务单元25%的营业额提升对于公司三季度的经营表现十分关键。人们可能会想，惠普公司说不定会将这两位女士塑造成一个“动力组合”，也许成为联席首席执行长，因为IT行业的女高管本身就凤毛麟角。人们会有些担心从德国软体巨头SAP公司转战而来的列奥阿波蒂克(Leo Apotheka)，因为他在SAP出任联席首席执行长的日子并没有太多建树。不过，阿波蒂克在惠普公司的电话会议中首次登台亮相后，分析师们似乎看好他更多一些。目前，阿波蒂克的言论都还中规中矩，如提高惠普员工的薪酬，增加研发领域的投资，更多地关注软体而非硬体等等，这些都是提升公司盈利水准的重要方面。未来几个月，惠普公司在阿波蒂克的带领下表现如何，值得我们拭目以待。Will Tablets Kill The PC Star?The age of the tablet computer is upon us, and Wall Street stepped up its efforts this week to gauge just how destructive the trend will be to the traditional personal-computer market.Computer-industry observers have been warning for months now that tablets are primed to crowd out, or cannibalize, personal-computer sales because they can perform a lot of the same tasks but are cheaper and fit better with an on-the-go lifestyle.The industry has only a few ofthe slate-style computers on offer at the moment, most prominently Apples (ticker: AAPL) iPad and Samsung Electronics Galaxy Tab.But dozens of companies have announced or are expected to release tablet computers of one sort or another in the coming months, ranging from Archos, a maker of chunky, brick-like portable video players, to ViewSonic, a maker of computer monitors.The CEO of Acer, currently No. 2 in PC sales, was quoted on Friday boasting the company will dominate tablet sales a couple of years from now.And so the Street has been busy assembling models: On Monday, Citigroups team of analysts covering computers, software and semiconductors put out a report saying there will be 35 million tablet computers sold in 2011, with Apples iPad accounting for three quarters of the total, compared with almost 400 million PCs sold.While the tablet sales look small by comparison, those 35 million sales will eliminate about 11 million PC sales that normally would be expected next year, enough to reduce the PCs sales-growth rate to 9% next year from an original 12% estimate, the Citi team said.But Citis estimates may be too kind to the PC. Craig Berger, who follows Intel (INTC) for FBR Capital Markets, gave a more aggressive estimate on Monday, with 40 million tablets sold by Apple next year and 30 million by the rest of the pack.Berger warns that the economics of tablet computing are not good for PCs, with one PC sale lost for every 2.5 tablets sold.And even Bergers numbers may be too low: On Tuesday, a report by the trade magazine DigiTimes said Apples manufacturer for iPads, Foxconn Electronics, was expanding capacity in China to produce up to 70 million iPads a year.A report by the same publication on Wednesday predicted that, on top of Apples output, up to 30 million tablet computers would be shipped next year by other manufacturers.While its debatable how much each tablet sale steals from what would be a PC purchase, theres no arguing with numbers that have shown a drastic drop-off in personal- computer sales in the third quarter from the first two quarters of the year.Gartner last month reported that third-quarter sales of laptop computers to consumers was the weakest in the last several years.Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) gave the latest evidence of the slowing this week, saying laptop revenue fell 3% in the quarter from a year earlier, while overall consumer revenue was off 10%.However many tablets may be sold, we do know this: The age of the tablet is playing havoc with profit margins, essentially because it represents a challenge to the fat profit margins of computing from the razor-thin margins of consumer electronics.Apple stock was whacked last month when the company delivered a disappointing gross profit margin of 36.9%, down from 41.8% a year earlier and below the Streets expectation of about 38%. Apple forecast December-quarter margins to decline further, to 36%.Research In Motion (RIMM), maker of the BlackBerry, is expected to go head-to-head with Apple come January with its PlayBook tablet. Its second-quarter report on Sept. 16 was better than expected, and so was the forecast for the third quater, but the company said gross profit will dip to 42%, down from 44.5% in the second quarter.Expect to hear much more in coming months about the erosion of profits in tech as tablets crammed with features sell at increasingly low prices.For computer makers, falling profitability means youd better have a pretty good strategy to make up the profit on volume, or in sales of something else.Apple will be fine: It can use the iPad to pull in buyers of plain old PCs, and as well as subscriptions to its online service, MobileMe. Google (GOOG), too, will be just fine, selling ads as its Android operating system spreads across the world on non-iPad tablets.RIMs strategy seems less certain. By pushing a unique tablet operating system for the PlayBook, the company seems to be downplaying its traditional strength, the network it controls, instead falling into the trap of playing the game on Apples terms - software.As for Intel, its fortunes seem linked to new chips with supposedly revolutionary battery performance, just perfect for tablet computing. But those parts wont show up until 2012, Citigroups analysts wrote last week.Its not all bad for plain old computing, though. At some point, all these gadgets will promote sales of traditional PCs to manage their use in homes and offices, as well as servers to house all the content delivered to them.Kudos to the team thats kept Hewlett-Packard going: Catherine Lesjak, whos been serving as interim CEO since the departure of Mark Hurd under the cloud of impropriety in August, led the company to better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results. On Mondays conference call, she shared the stage with Ann Livermore, head of HPs team that sells to large corporations. The 25% rise in revenue by that unit was key to the quarter.You would think that HP might be inclined to anoint these two as a kind of Dynamic Duo, perhaps co-CEOs, given the dearth of women in the highest ranks of tech, and given some concerns about incoming CEO Leo Apothekar, who presided over a not particularly memorable period at German software giant SAP (SAP).But analysts seemed inclined to hope for the best with Apothekar following his debut on the conference call.He has said the right things so far, talking about raising pay at HP, boosting investment in R&D and focusing the company more on software than hardware, which is, after all, where the profits are headed these days. It will be interesting to see Apothekars vision unfold in the months ahead.