[教育]战略咨询入门—市场容量估算业务.pptx

教育战略咨询入门市场容量估算业务,Before class,Our objective and methodology,Objective:,Understand what Guesstimation is,How to get the answer,How to present the answer,Be a master,Our method:,Conversation,Question lead,We do it together,Introduction,What is Guesstimation?,Guesstimation is more than market sizing,Guesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common sense,Real work,Market sizing to drive business decisions,5_85,Introduction,How to get the answer in real work?,Highest level:check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/Retailers-End Customers,In real work without data,Cold call or in-depth interviews,Lit research,Introduction,What is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?,Back of the envelope question,No data,no internet,no questions,Will be given as:,A single case or part of a case,Brain teaser questions,Introduction,Why do Guesstimation in the case interview?,To test:,Common sense,Business sense,Analytical capability,Calculation,Communication to describe and summarize,Comfort in real work,How to get the answer,The methodology,Have a try,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,How to get the answer,The methodology,Clarify the question,Landing/departing,Domestic/international,Laying out the structure,#of passengers=#of planes landing per day x#of passengers per plane,Deep dive on each element,#of planes landing per day=#of runways x#of planes landing on each runway per day,#of planes landing on each runway per day=#of hours airport operates for landing per day/time taken for a plane to land,Probe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense,zero defect calculation,Sanity check,Review assumptions for sensitivity check,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,How to get the answer,Tips,1.Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts,2.Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers,3.When making assumptions,use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages(e.g.age groups 0-20 etc.),4.Clearly label units,5.Avoid numerical ranges as they complicate the solution,6.Use a“sniff test”or“sanity-check”the validity of each calculation,7.Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer,8.Interpret interviewer body language,9.Communicate each step clearly and concisely,and your thinking process,10.Dont overcomplicate the solution simple is super,11.Try to offer multiple appraoches,How to get the answer,Case in group,On average,how much does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?,How to get the answer,Case in group,How many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?,How to get the answer,Case in group,How many gas stations are there in Shanghai?,How to get the answer,Is there any pattern in such questions?,Top down/bottom up,Common segmentation dimensions,Age,gender,income,season,penetration,utilization,You can always further breakdown by thinking about,Process,value chain,highly correlated variables,How to present the answer,Face to face case,Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?,How to present the answer,Face to face case,How many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?,How to present the answer,Face to face case,How many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?,How to present the answer,Face to face case,Ages,#of people(million),penetration rate,bottles per month,#of months,bottles per year(m),0-5,75,0%,0,12,0,6-10,75,40%,2,12,720,11-20,150,50%,3,12,2700,21-40,300,50%,3,12,5400,41-60,300,30%,1,12,1080,61-80,300,10%,0.5,12,180,Total,1200,1.8,9.5,-,10080,How to present the answer,Face to face case,How many taxis are there in Shanghai?,