工程管理专业论文可行性研究.doc

可行性研究是房地产项目的作用 可行性研究是房地产项目建设前期工作的重要步骤,是编制建设项目设计任务书的依据。对房地产建设项目进行可行性研究是房地产投资建设管理中的一项重要基础工作,是保证房地产建设项目以最小的投资换取最佳经济效果的科学方法,可行性研究在项目投资决策和项目运作建设中具有十分重要的作用。 1可行性研究在房地产开发中的作用 可行性研究日渐成为房地产开发前期工作的一个重要组成部分。可行性研究是针对项目成本与效益关系的分析研究,包括财务状况报告和成本分析。工程项目的可行性研究是确定项目是否进行投资决策的依据。现在的房地产开发首先要取得土地,根据现在土地市场的状况,其主要渠道是通过土地一级拍卖市场,开发商通过公开竞价方式获得。在这里,开发商举牌竞价的基础是开发成本,房地产开发的成本应包括土地成本、建安成本、销售成本、管理运营成本以及财务成本等等。与此同时,开发商还应通过有效途径来预测房地产项目的销售收入。通过对比销售收入与所有开发成本的差值,来评估房地产项目投资与否,而上述所有这些工作,也就是房地产开发的可行性研究。在这我结合建发房产集团在福州通过挂牌竞买获得北江滨一开发用地为例加以阐述。2002年底福州北江滨开发刚刚开始,北江滨沿江一线已开发的楼盘只有融侨锦江、碧水芳洲、元洪花园等屈指可数的几个。我们从市调数据分析中了解到,北江滨一线的房地产开发正处于起步阶段,市场楼面地价在800元/m2 左右,而商品房售价在3600元/m2 左右,房地产开发的市场空间较为理想。我们通过严谨的市场调查,细致的投入产出分析以及市场预期分析,同时结合企业开发理念,提出了如竞买成功,可将该地块开发成建发房产集团在福州的精品楼盘,以推出厦门建发房地产集团在福州的品牌建设。通过上述的市场调研与分析,公司大胆地参予了土地竟买并顺利获得该开发用地。从该例子中,总结出只有通过广泛的市场调查后,进行有效的房地产项目可行性研究,通过比对和精确分析各种数据、指标等,开发企业才能确定是否进行投资和如何进行投资。较为准确的可行性研究是房地产开发企业决策的基础,是项目建设单位决策性的文件。也是其他投资者的合资理由根据。可行性研究是编制项目初步设计的依据。初步设计是根据可行性研究对所要建设的项目规划出实际性的建设蓝图,即较详尽的项目规模、规划方案、总体布置、建设工期、投资概算、技术经济指标等内容。并为下一步实施项目设计提出具体操作方案,初步设计不得违背可行性研究已经论证的原则。 在上述例子中,企业在可行性研究中提出结合企业开发理念,可将该地块开发成建发房产集团在福州的精品楼盘,以推出厦门建发房地产集团在福州的品牌建设项目。基于该开发思路,企业通过精心组织设计,反复比选总平方案及户型,从而为日后的施工设计及开发与销售奠定了良好的基础。在可行性研究过程中,因为运用了大量的基础资料,所以一旦有关地形、工程地质、水文等实验数据不完整,不能满足下一个阶段工作需要时,负责初步设计的部门就需要根据可行性研究所提出的要求和建议,进一步开展有关地形、工程地质、水文等勘察工作,补充有关数据。在上述项目可研中,企业考虑到该项目位于福州北江滨沿闽江,地下水位可能较高,提请设计注重防水,同时结合闽江汛期,提出地下室合理的施工的时期。 可行性研究是房地产开发企业拟定采用新技术、新设备,研制供需采购计划的依据。可行性研究中对拟建项目采用新技术、新设备已进行了可行性分析和论证,认为可行的,开发企业可依据可行性研究拟定的新技术引进和采购新设备的计划。 可行性研究为确保项目达到环保标准,提出了治理措施和办法,这些信息可作为环保部门对项目进行环评、具体研究治理措施,更是签发项目建设许可文件的主要依据。因此,我们认为可行性研究是编制设计任务书的重要依据,也是进行概念设计、初步设计和工程建设管理工作中的重要环节。进行可行性研究,不仅要对拟议中的项目进行系统分析和全面论证,判断项目是否可行,是否值得投资,而且要进行反复比较,以寻求最佳建设方案,避免项目方案的多变造成的人力、物力、财力的巨大浪费和时间的延误。假如在设计初期不能提出高质量的、切合实际的设计任务书,不能将开发意图用准确的技术术语表达出来,自然也就无法有效地控制设计全过程。如果使工程的初步设计起不到控制工程轮廓及主要功能的作用,或在只有一个粗略的方案下便草率地进入施工图设计,设计项目管理与施工肯定会出问题。可行性研究中房地产开发企业总的各项目标如控制不好,在进入初步设计阶段,往往使整个设计过程朝令夕改,设计者无所适从,顾此失彼,造成产品先天不足,由于在建设中容易出现的不断追加的投资,使得房地产投资失控带来了巨大损失,其结果是使初步设计概算突破了可研报告估算的上限,而施工图预算又超越了设计概算。因此工程项目的建设成本在很大程度上直接取决于可行性研究及设计。如果在设计前就对项目设计提出一些更具体的功能和详尽的指标要求,设计中变更工作量就会减少,设计周期就会缩短。其结果是设计图纸深度和进度能够满足实际施工的需要,使建设成本和项目管理处于可控状态。 在现实经济环境中,房地产开发企业希望挖潜降低工程造价,特别是一些民营、个体业主,他们缺乏懂技术的专家为他们的项目认证、研究,因此下达的设计任务书做为设计依据的基本文件就很不规范。可因人而异,条款过于简单,可执行性差,往往还隐藏着一些可行性研究中尚需进一步解决的问题,不能为设计阶段提供良好的设计依据,造成设计工作局部停滞或出现不应有的遗漏及失误,甚至造成部分工程因此废弃。实际建设工程中最常见的是产生了大量的设计变更,由此造成了整体式期延误及概预算指标的突破,甚至由于工程 不能按期完工而引起了业主的上诉官司,从而带来了巨额的工程延期交付赔偿或产品的退货处理。解决这一问题的最好办法是在一个好的可行性研究报告的指导下拟定设计任务书,在设计任务书的指导下进行初步设计及以后的相关设计。同时严格控制使初步设计概算在可研报告估算的范围这内,而施工图预算不超越设计概算指标。因此,搞好可行性研究这个环节非常有必要,同时要有机地使可行性研究与设计、施工管理有效结合,设计管理应在可行性研究的基础上进行,同时又必须是对可行性研究的补充与修正。这两个环节的工作做得不细,造成失误不但使房地产项目没有经济效益,而且损失可能是惨重的。可行性研究与设计项目管理是避免投资决策失误、保证房地产项目经营效益的重要手段。 2如何做好房地产项目可行性研究 要做好房地产项目可行性研究,本人觉得可重点从以下几点予以关注: 2.1 区位分析 项目成功的先决条件是占据好的区位,这是由房地产的位置固定性和不可移动性所决定的。在上述我司开发的福州北江滨项目中,我们通过市场调查,明确该项目在北江滨的区位是北江滨中段,紧临福州繁华商业地中亭街。通过分析我们认为该区位将是集高尚、看江,休闲的良好居住地,这里将不再是往常福州人认为的台江的赃、乱、差之地,而是福州日后的南北中轴。一个开发策略的形成,需要正确理解和综合考虑特定的地区和城市的经济基础、经济增长前景、人口条件(包括人口基数、人口密度、规划增长率、增长模式、就业状况以及地区相关的家庭收入情况等)的现状、发展趋势及其对市场的价格水平的可能影响。对于上述研究,政府部门定期修订的城市总体规划及公布的各年度社会经济发展计划将能提供非常有用的资料。另外,还应当认真分析备选区位的可进入性及已有竞争性项目的情况,从而指导房地产开发产品的宏观定位与市场切入度。在上述项目中我司通过可研分析认为,在该区域竞争的本企业楼盘将是定性的,可比的,我们认为应通过产品的特异性,产品的细致度来赢得市场。 2.2 场地分析 如果说区位是项目开发的大前提,那么场地条件可称为项目开发的小前提。场地条件包括建设用地的大小、形状、地质地形条件、临街状况、基础设施水平、利用现状及分区限制等方面。一个场地如上述条件都不错,但不巧处于泄洪区或者场地附近存在影响项目定位的因素,都会对场地的价值产生影响。一个居民小区,如邻近垃圾处理场、传染病医院或流动人口聚集地,居民的不安全感将会直接影响住宅的售价。也严重影响了产品原来的定位。上述福州北江滨开发项目南面临江,北面临仓霞改造区,西侧有一寺庙,结合实际情况,我司在可研中提出强化项目的园林景观设计,以期达到淡化不利因素的目的。 2.3开发潜力分析 房地产开发商追求项目的最高经济效益与社会效益是合理也是必须的,因此开发商必须通过潜力开发与分析来使项目在技术可行、规划许可且财力允许的前提下达到最有效利用。所以新开发项目应符合时代潮流,建筑设计要具有适度的超前意识,以延长建筑功能和物业经济寿命。在可研报告中,我们针对该开发项目的地理位置及我司开发理念,提出该项目的定位为高尚、休闲,房型适中,理念领先半步。 2.4 供需分析 市场分析就是对某类特定房地产的市场状况进行研究,以期对该类市场目前和未来的供需进行评估。无论是别墅、普通住宅、写字楼、商场、酒店,都应在筹划阶段对其相应的市场进行深入的研究。一般开发商比较注重分析市场需求而常常忽略了供给的影响,其实对竞争性项目的量化及分析也很重要。市场供需情况是不断发生变化的,因此必须探讨供需之间的关系并研究供需失衡的原因,并在此基础上预测供需双方在未来可能发生的数量转变。 2.5 现金流风险分析 在进行可行性研究时,往往容易忽视项目开发的财务成本费用,一个项目在不计财务成本时往往是可行的,但一计入财务成本,开发商就只好替投资者或银行打工了。另外一点可行性研究容易低估房地产项目的空置率,也就是房地产项目的销售周期问题。空置率高,销售周期延长,必然造成开发企业的现金流失控。因此在作可研报告时,要对未来现金流进行较为准确的估算,如不经过仔细推敲,通常会导致一个完全错误的结果。同时,可行性研究中的财务成本分析以及利润分析,要从静态及动态两方面进行。从各项目分析指标中确定项目的投资收益与风险并有效确保企业资金链的安全。 Feasibility study is the role of real estate projects Feasibility study is an important step, prior to the construction of the real estate project work is the basis for preparation of the design plan descriptions of the construction project. Construction of real estate project feasibility study is an important basic work in the management of the construction of real estate investment, is to ensure that the housing construction projects with minimum investment return for the best economic effect of the scientific method, the feasibility study in the construction of project investment decision and project operation plays a very important role. 1 the role of feasibility study in real estate development Feasibility study of increasingly become the development of real estate is an important part of. Feasibility study is aimed at the analysis and research of the project cost and benefit relationship, including financial status report and cost analysis. Project feasibility study is to determine if the project is on the basis of investment decisions. Now the real estate development must first obtain land, according to the current land market situation, the main channel is through the land auction market, developers through public bidding. Here, developers have up for bidding is the basis of the development costs, the cost of real estate development should include the cost of land, sussing out cost, cost of sales, management, operation cost and financial cost and so on. At the same time, developers also should through the effective way to predict the sales of real estate projects. By comparing sales with all development cost difference, and to assess the real estate investment project or not, but above all this work, namely real estate development feasibility study. In which I combined with c&d listed property group in fuzhou by bidding for north riverside development land are discussed, for example. Fuzhou north riverside development is just beginning at the end of 2002, north riverside buildings of a line has been developed along the only overseas Chinese jinjiang, clear water FangZhou, yuan hong garden and so on of the few. We learned from the survey data analysis, north riverside line of real estate development is in its infancy, the market floor price is controlled in 800 yuan/m2, and commercial housing price is controlled in 3600 yuan/m2, real estate development market space ideal. We through rigorous market research and careful of input-output analysis and market forecast analysis, combined with the concept of enterprise development, at the same time put forward such as bidding success, the land can be developed ChengJianFa boutique estate property group in fuzhou, in order to launch brand building in fuzhou xiamen c&d real estate group. Through the market research and analysis, the company boldly to participate in the land was bought and get the land for development. From this case, only through extensive market research, summed up the effective real estate project feasibility study, through the comparison and accurate analysis of various data, indicators, etc., the development enterprise to determine whether or not to invest and how to invest. Relatively accurate feasibility study is the basis of real estate development enterprise decision-making, decision-making of the file is the project construction unit. Is other reason according to the joint venture investors. The basis of feasibility study is the preparation of project preliminary design. Preliminary design is according to the feasibility study to project planning out the actual construction of the construction of the blueprint, the detailed project scope, planning scheme, overall layout, construction period, investment estimate and technical and economic indicators. And put forward concrete action plan for implementation of the project design in the next step, the preliminary design shall not violate the principle of feasibility studies have demonstrated. In the example above, the enterprise in the feasibility study, combining with the concept of enterprise development, the land can be developed ChengJianFa boutique estate property group in fuzhou, in order to launch brand construction projects in fuzhou, xiamen c&d real estate group. Based on the development train of thought, the enterprise through the careful organization design, repeated comparison total solutions and family, and for the future design of construction and development and sales have laid a good foundation. Because in the process of feasibility study, using a large amount of basic data, so once the terrain, engineering geology, hydrology, etc. The experimental data is not complete, cant meet the needs of the next stage work, responsible for the preliminary design department will need to be according to the requirements of feasibility research and the suggestion, further about the terrain, geological, hydrological survey work, such as supplementary data. In the project feasibility study, considering the project is located in fuzhou north riverside along the minjiang, underground water level may be higher, to design pay attention to waterproof, combined with the min river flood season at the same time, puts forward the reasonable construction of the basement. Feasibility study is real estate development enterprises to adopt new technology, new equipment, develop procurement plan based on supply and demand. Feasibility study of projects to adopt new technology, new equipment has carried on the feasibility analysis and argumentation, think possible, development of enterprises can be based on the feasibility study and formulate new technology introduction and purchasing new equipment plan. Feasibility study in order to ensure the project meet environmental protection standards, puts forward the measures and method, the information can be used as the environmental protection department of project eia, specific research governance measures, which is issued by the main basis of project construction license file. Therefore, we think the feasibility study is important basis of preparation of the design plan descriptions of the concept design, preliminary design and an important link of project construction management work. Feasibility study, not only to make a system analysis for the proposed project and comprehensive demonstration, determine if the project is feasible, is worth the investment, and comparing repeatedly, to seek the best construction scheme, to avoid project variable caused huge waste of human, material and financial resources and time delay. If at the beginning of the design cant put forward high quality, practical design specification, development can not be intent in terms of the technology of accurate expression, nature also wont be able to effectively control the whole design process. If you do not make the preliminary design of engineering control project outline and main function, or with only a rough idea of your plan was hastily into the construction drawing design, design project management and construction must be a problem. Feasibility study of real estate development enterprise overall goals such as control is bad, in the preliminary design stage, music often makes the design process, designers and attend, congenital deficiency caused, due to the easily appear constantly in the construction of additional investment, make real estate investment out of control has brought huge losses, as a result, the preliminary design budgetary estimate of broke through the feasibility study report estimates of upper limit, the design and construction drawing budget beyond the budget. So the cost of construction of the project directly to a great extent depends on the feasibility study and design. If before the design is put forward on the project design, some of the more specific functions and detailed parameters, changes in the design of the workload will reduce, will shorten the design cycle. As a result, the design depth of the drawings and schedule to meet the needs of actual construction, the construction cost and project management in a controlled state. In the real economic environment, real estate development enterprises hope potentialities and reduce the engineering cost, especially some private, individual owner, their lack of understand technical experts for their project certification, research, therefore issued the design specification for design basis of the basic file is out of specification. Can vary from person to person, the provisions are too simple, enforceability, often hidden some feasibility study still need to further solve the problem, cant provide good design basis for the design phase, design work caused local stagnation or should not have omissions and errors, and even cause some engineering therefore abandoned. Is most common in actual construction project generated a lot of design changes, the resulting integral period delay and breakthrough of budget index, even due to the project Cannot be completed on schedule and caused the owner appeals court, which has brought the huge compensation project delays or product return process. The best way to solve this problem is under the guidance of a good feasibility study report to formulate the design plan descriptions, under the guidance of the design plan descriptions of the preliminary design and related design later. At the same time strict control make preliminary design budgetary estimate in feasibility study report estimates that within the scope of this, but not beyond the design of construction drawing budget estimates. Therefore, do a good job in the feasibility study at this stage is very necessary, at the same time to make feasibility study organic combining with design, construction management, design management should be performed on the basis of the feasibility study, at the same time must be the supplement and correction of feasibility study. These two links do not work fine, cause errors not only make no economic benefits of real estate project, and is likely to be disastrous. Feasibility study and design project management is to avoid the investment decision-making errors, important means to assure the operating efficiency of real estate project. 2, how to do real estate project feasibility study Do real estate project feasibility study, I think can focus from pay attention to the following points: 2.1 the location analysis Project success is a precondition to occupy a good location, it is determined by the real estate location fixity and immovability. In th