XXXX年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析.pptx

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,2010 Canola Production Outlook,2010,年加拿大油菜生产与产量分析,March,20,10,2010,年,3,月,Jingzhou,China,中国,荆州,Ruojun Wang,China Feed Industry Consultant,中国饲料工业顾问,Canola Council of Canada,加拿大双低油菜理事会,The Canadian Canola Industry is,加拿大双低油菜籽行业,Innovative.,革故鼎新,Resilient.,灵活应变,Determined to create superior value,and a healthier world.,立志创造卓越价值和更加健康的世界。,World Vegetable Oil Usage,全世界植物油的使用,Canola is the third most widely used vegetable oil in the world.,双低菜籽油是世界上排名第三的使用最广泛的植物油。,椰子,棕榈,大豆,油菜籽,葵花籽,花生,棉籽,橄榄,World Canola/Rapeseed Production(07-08),世界双低油菜,/,油菜籽产量（,07-08,年）,Canada is responsible for 75%of canola trade,加拿大承担了世界,75%,的双低油菜籽贸易量。,澳洲,印度,其他,中国,美国,加拿大,乌克兰,俄罗斯,欧盟,27,国,南非,Canola Facts,双低油菜籽简介,2,nd,largest crop in Canada,加拿大第二大农作物,Most valuable cropping choice in Western Canada,加拿大西部最有价值的种植选择,Seed exports on the rise,油菜籽出口增长,Domestic crush expanding,国内压榨量增加,Canola the healthy oil,双低菜籽油,健康的油,Canola vs.Wheat,双低油菜籽,vs.,小麦,草原农场现金收入价值比较：,小麦（硬粒小麦除外）,vs.,双低油菜籽（十万美元）,双底油菜籽 小麦 红线（双低油菜）蓝线（小麦）,Canadian Canola Situation 07/08,-08/09,07/08-08/09,年加拿大双低油菜籽概况,Production:12.6,-12.643,mln mt,产量：,1260-1264.3,万吨,Seed exports:5.7,-7.9081,mln mt,油菜籽出口：,570-790.81,万吨,Seed exports by destination:,各目的地国油菜籽出口量：,Japan(2.0,-2.0656,),Mexico(1.3,-1.1625,),China(0.7,-2.8719,),U.S.A.(0.9,-0.764,),Pakistan(0.2,-0.385,),U.A.E.(0.3,-0.5295,),Bangladesh,（,0-0.1292,）,日本（,200-206.56,万吨），墨西哥（,130-116.25,万吨），中国（,70-287.19,万吨），美国（,90-76.4,万吨），巴基斯坦（,20-38.5,万吨），阿联酋（,30-52.95,万吨），孟加拉国（,0-12.92,万吨）,Canadian Canola Situation 07/08,-08/09,07/08-08/09,年加拿大双低油菜籽概况,Crush:4.1,-4.656,mln mt,seed,压榨用量：,410-465.6,万吨油菜籽,Oil exports:1.3,-1.5427,mln mt oil,油出口量：,130-154.27,万吨,US 0.9,281-1.0297,China 0.2,49-0.3952,美国,92.81-102.97,万吨，中国,24.9-39.52,万吨,(,香港地区,18700-25300t,、台湾地区,=12100-13000t,，南韩,=34100-36600t),Meal Exports 1.9,-1.861,mlm mt meal,油菜籽粕,粉出口量：,190-186.1,万吨,US 1.8,-1.766 mlnt,Iceland10200t,Mexico78300t,，,ChineseTaiwan2300t,美国,180-176.6,万吨，冰岛,10200,吨，墨西哥,78300,吨，中国台湾地区,2300,吨，,中国大陆过去无进口，,2009-2010,会有一些尝试性的大量进口,Canola Supply/Disposition,双低油菜籽供应,/,处理,Production years,年份,Production,产量,Exports,出口,Crush,压榨,加拿大双低菜籽生产预期,For,2009-10,exports are projected to be the second highest on record,although down12%from the record set in 2008-09.2009-1010,作物年度，出口将是历史上的次高记录，比,2008-2009,年度的最高记录会低,12%,Domestic crush is forecast to rise due to increased domestic crushing capacity.,因为国内压榨能力的扩大，国内压制预期会增加,Carry-out stocks are forecast to be similar to the previous year,with the average price,down more than 10%.,期末库存与上一年度相似，但平均价格会降低,10%,For,2010-11,seeded area is projected to increase from 2009-10,but production and supply are forecast to decline marginally due to lower yields.2010-2011,年度，与,2009-2010,年度相比，种植面积会增加，但产量和供应因为单产降低会略有降低,Domestic crush is forecast to rise to a record 5.5 Mt due to expanded crush capacity and increased demand for oil and meal.,因国内压榨能力以及对菜粕和菜油需求的增加，国内压榨预计增加到,550,万吨的历史水平,Exports are expected to decline due to increased domestic use.Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline significantly,因国内使用数量增加，出口量预计降低，期末库存预计大幅降低,.,Prices are expected to decline slightly due to weaker world vegoil prices.,因世界植物油价格偏弱，价格预计稍有降低,加拿大菜籽出口历史,Seed Exports(Historic),Canadian Canola Seed ExportsCrop Year-August 1st to July 31stSource:Cereals&Oilseeds Review-Statistics Canada&Canadian Grain Commission(000 Tonnes),99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 Bangladesh,-13.3 11.3 6.1 103.4 94.4 95.7 129.2,China,1211.1 1889.6 213.5 -401.1 275.0 614.4 873.4 659.3 2871.9,Europe,0.5 -2.1 1.2 7.6 0.2 -,Japan,1800.8 1874.0 1589.5 1562.0 1675.0 1746.0 1957.8 1960.8 2084.4 2065.6,Mexico,570.1 846.0 631.1 450.4 1067.8 944.1 1273.9 899.7 1278.4 1162.5,Pakistan,-172.7 274.2 4.0 590.1 548.8 222.8 385.0,Turkey,-53.9 28.9 51.9 ,U.A.E.,-181.6 281.7 347.9 529.9,U.S.A.,280.0 248.8 87.6 194.8 317.4 430.1 616.6 669.7 920.7 764.0,Others,21.8 -7.9 173.9 -10.9 19.8 77.3 -,TOTAL3885.0,4859.0,2524.0,2394.4,3754.4,3412.4 5411.5 5434.7 5661.1,7908.1,Canola *100 Ha,年度 种植 收获 产量 生产 进口 总供应 出口 食品 饲料 国内 库存 价格,面积 面积,t/ha,*1000 t,千吨,$/T,2007-2008 6,367 6,277 1.52 9,529 179 11,490 5,661 4,144 108 4,301 1,528 5532008-2009f 6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 90 14,260 7,000 4,275 340 4,660 2,600 450-500,2008-2009,6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 121 14,225 7,908 4,280,329 4,656 1,661 467,2009-2010f 6,066 5,975 1.70 10,150 200 12,950 6,500 5,500 303 5,850 600 450-550 09J2009-2010f 6,556 6,105 1.94 11,825 150 13,636 7,000 4,500 436 4,986 1,650 390-440 10M 2010-2011f 6,800 6,680 1.74 11,600 125 13,375 6,500 5,500 427 5,975 900 350-450,作物年度为,8,月到来年,7,月,黑胫病事件的现况,1-China issued a quarantine order in November 2009 for canola imports requiring that they must be free of stem canker(Leptosphaeria maculans)which has not been reported in China.,中国政府,2009,年,11,月就双低菜籽的进口颁布检疫法令，要求不含有国内未报告的黑茎病病菌（,Leptosphaeria maculans,仅报道有,弱毒种,Leptosphaeria biglobosa,，无强毒种,L.maculans,，刘胜毅等,2007,）,2-For the 2009 crop,China agreed to a“transition”year which allows canola shipments that are positive for L.maculans to discharge at crushing plants in non-rapeseed growing zones where there is no risk of blackleg entering the Chinese rapeseed.In rapeseed growing zones only canola shipments that test negative for L.maculans are allowed to discharge at CIQ approved plants.,对于,2009,年度生产的双低菜籽，中国同意作为过渡年，允许,Leptosphaeria maculans,检测阳性的双低菜籽货物在黑茎病不会造成中国油菜染病风险的非油菜产区的压榨厂卸货。而在油菜生产区，仅允许在经,CIQ,许可的压榨厂卸载,Leptosphaeria maculans,检测阴性的双低菜籽货物。,World Canola/Rapeseed Production(07-08)世界双低油菜/油菜籽产量（07-08年）,可以考虑的一些因素包括：距离油菜田的距离；,16、行动出成果，工作出财富。,95 12,643 121 14,225 7,908 4,280 329 4,656 1,661 4672009-2010f 6,066 5,975 1.,51 14.,Carry-out stocks are forecast to be similar to the previous year,with the average price,05)或趋于显著(P35,000t)in 2007/08,07/08,年美国使用加拿大双低油菜籽粕粉情况（多于,35000,吨）,Ag Commodity Research 2008,挤奶日期,乳产量,kg/d,始始,图,.1,用含加拿大双低菜粕和豆粕,TMR,饲养奶牛的产奶量变化,王若军等,2007,，北京三元绿荷,内蒙古农业大学 田丰 阎素梅，,2009,1.,瘤胃降解率的试验结果表明，加拿大双低油菜籽粕的蛋白质和干物质在瘤胃内的有效降解率分别为,59.06%,、,55.17%,。,2.,瘤胃发酵的试验结果表明，在高蛋白（,10.5,）和低蛋白（,8.5,）日粮条件下用加拿大双低油菜籽粕替代豆粕、棉籽粕，对奶牛瘤胃液,pH,值、,BCP,含量和,VFA,含量均无显著的影响；对瘤胃氨氮浓度有显著,(,P,0.05),或趋于显著,(,P,0.05),，与对照组相比，菜籽粕组的平均乳脂量、乳蛋白量显著增加,(P,0.05),。,4.,低蛋白日粮的饲养试验结果表明，在日粮中蛋白含量为,12.5,时，用,2.5,加拿大双低油菜籽粕替代豆粕与棉籽粕，对奶牛产奶量、乳成分、平均乳脂量及乳蛋白量均没有显著的影响,(,P,0.05),；对奶牛乳体细胞数和血清,IgG,、,IgM,抗体含量也无显著影响,(,P,0.05),。,内蒙古农业大学 田丰 阎素梅，,2009,经济效益分析结果表明，用加拿大双低油菜籽粕替代全日粮中的豆粕与棉籽粕，可以增加经济效益。,项目 对照组 菜籽粕组,试验全期平均牛奶收入（元,/,头,/,天）,57.57 60.15,试验全期平均精料成本（元,/,头,/,天）,14.51 14.53,相对于对照组净增利润（元,/,头,/,天）,0 2.56,注：奶牛收入和成本是在进行本试验牛场的实际情况下计算，牛奶价格每公斤,3.4,元，,加拿大双低油菜籽粕每吨,2800,元，豆粕每吨,4500,元，棉籽粕每吨,2050,元。,IMPROVE Meal Quality,提高粕粉品质,IMPROVE Market Access for Canola and its Products,改善双低油菜籽及其产品的市场准入条件,Environment of Growth,增长环境,Canola seed and oil from Canada must have the ability to compete internationally.,加拿大的双低油菜籽和菜籽油必须具备国际竞争力。,We need to have a level playing field with competing oils and oilseeds from around the globe.,我们需要和全球油品和油籽公平竞争。,Canadian Seed and Oil Exports to China,加拿大油菜籽和菜籽油出口中国数量,菜籽油,油菜籽,08/09,年度,This means the seed is no longer viable and the crushing temperatures will also destroy any of the L.,maculans to discharge at crushing plants in non-rapeseed growing zones where there is no risk of blackleg entering the Chinese rapeseed.,16、少年十五二十时，步行夺得胡马骑。,萨斯喀彻温省新建了三座压榨厂,00 million tonnes500万吨,13、知人者智，自知者明。,Three more crushing plants being built in Saskatchewan,12、世间成事，不求其绝对圆满，留一份不足，可得无限完美。,07:40:4407:40:4407:40Wednesday,October 26,2022,1-China issued a quarantine order in November 2009 for canola imports requiring that they must be free of stem canker(Leptosphaeria maculans)which has not been reported in China.,2 -,瘤胃发酵的试验结果表明，在高蛋白（10.,Canola Council of Canada,Glycemic index,Landed Value(oil)$US 1000 到岸价格（菜籽油）1000美元,Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline significantly因国内使用数量增加，出口量预计降低，期末库存预计大幅降低.,China Rapeseed Production and Opportunities to Supplement with Canadian Canola,中国油菜籽产量与进口加拿大双低油菜籽的机遇,中国双低油菜籽产量,加拿大双低油菜籽出口量,Chinese Tariff Imbalance,中国关税不平衡,Product,产品,Tariff,关税,Soybeans,黄豆,3%,Canola seed and oil,双低油菜籽和菜籽油,9%,Canola Disadvantage,双低油菜籽劣势,-6%,Landed Value(seed)$US 400,到岸价格（油菜籽）,400,美元,$24,disadvantage,损失,24,美元,Landed Value(oil)$US 1000,到岸价格（菜籽油）,1000,美元,$120,disadvantage,损失,120,美元,Partnership,合作,Need to work cooperatively for mutual benefit to facilitate an environment of growth for canola and canola oil.,需要为实现共同利益而合作，为促进双低油菜籽和菜籽油的增长营造环境。,Thank you,谢谢,9,、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。,10月-26,10月-26,Thursday,October 1,2026,10,、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,10/1/2026 12:14:57 PM,11,、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14,Oct-26,01-Oct-26,12,、故人江海别，几度隔山川。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,Thursday,October 1,2026,13,、乍见翻疑梦，相悲各问年。,10月-26,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14:57,October 1,2026,14,、他乡生白发，旧国见青山。,01 十月 2026,12:14:57 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,15,、比不了得就不比，得不到的就不要。,。,十月 26,12:14 下午,10月-26,12:14,October 1,2026,16,、行动出成果，工作出财富。,2026/10/1 12:14:57,12:14:57,01 October 2026,17,、做前，能够环视四周；做时，你只能或者最好沿着以脚为起点的射线向前。,12:14:57 下午,12:14 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,9,、没有失败，只有暂时停止成功！。,10月-26,10月-26,Thursday,October 1,2026,10,、很多事情努力了未必有结果，但是不努力却什么改变也没有。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,10/1/2026 12:14:57 PM,11,、成功就是日复一日那一点点小小努力的积累。,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14,Oct-26,01-Oct-26,12,、世间成事，不求其绝对圆满，留一份不足，可得无限完美。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,Thursday,October 1,2026,13,、不知香积寺，数里入云峰。,10月-26,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14:57,October 1,2026,14,、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。,01 十月 2026,12:14:57 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,15,、楚塞三湘接，荆门九派通。,。,十月 26,12:14 下午,10月-26,12:14,October 1,2026,16,、少年十五二十时，步行夺得胡马骑。,2026/10/1 12:14:57,12:14:57,01 October 2026,17,、空山新雨后，天气晚来秋。,12:14:57 下午,12:14 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,9,、杨柳散和风，青山澹吾虑。,10月-26,10月-26,Thursday,October 1,2026,10,、阅读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,10/1/2026 12:14:57 PM,11,、越是没有本领的就越加自命不凡。,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14,Oct-26,01-Oct-26,12,、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。,12:14:57,12:14:57,12:14,Thursday,October 1,2026,13,、知人者智，自知者明。胜人者有力，自胜者强。,10月-26,10月-26,12:14:57,12:14:57,October 1,2026,14,、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。,01 十月 2026,12:14:57 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,15,、最具挑战性的挑战莫过于提升自我。,十月 26,12:14 下午,10月-26,12:14,October 1,2026,16,、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。,2026/10/1 12:14:57,12:14:57,01 October 2026,17,、一个人即使已登上顶峰，也仍要自强不息。,12:14:57 下午,12:14 下午,12:14:57,10月-26,MOMODA POWERPOINT,Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet,consectetur adipiscing elit.Fusce id urna blandit,eleifend nulla ac,fringilla purus.Nulla iaculis tempor felis ut cursus.,感谢您的下载观看,专家告诉,