主要观点上课讲义.ppt

,*,“沪港通”前景：深化与复制,基于人民币国际化战略的思考,上海证券研究所 胡月晓,(CIIA:29001385),S0870,510120021,2015.11.02,“,Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect,”,prospect:deepen and replication,based on RMB internationalization strategic thinking,Shanghai securities research institute,By Jerry Hu,(CIIA:29001385),S0870,510120021,2015.11.04,主要观点：,“沪港通”主要为人民币国际化探索的安排，而非资本项目开放尝试，政策基本目的促进香港市场离岸人民币的使用,。,两地市场游戏规则未变：政策施行并未改变两地运行格局；内地居民投资港股早已现实存在；“沪港通”也并未带来投资渠道置换。,样本复制有望在国内外均得到推进。,Point of View,：,Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock,Connect,mainly for the exploration of the internationalisation of the,RMB,rather than,trying,opening capital projects,the basic goal of the policy is,to promote,the,use of offshore RMB in,Hongkong.,The,rules of the game in Two markets has not changed:the policy did not change the operation pattern of two markets;Mainland residents invest Hong Kong Stocks already reality;The,program,also did not,bring new,investment channels for replacement,.,Sample copy is expected to be boosted both at home and abroad,.,1.,The basic strategy-RMB internationalization,Figure 1 currency internationalization path,The requirements,and reflect of Chinese economys development,and recovery,；,Currency internationalization is the symbol of international economic and financial status,the guarantee of maintaining competitive global dominance,；,The international economic competition:goods/services(trade),capital competition,currency,competition,.,T,he process of The Japanese,Yen,for internationalization is not successful,。,2.,国际化战略决定中国金融改革安排,利率、汇率、资本开放和货币主权是“四位一体”的；,国际货币与“不可能三角”的突破，货币政策独立性。,“沪港通”目的不是铺垫资本项目开放，不是资本开放“开口子”。,图,2,人民币国际化是中国金融格局的核心,汇率自由化,资本开放,沪港通,利率市场化,国际化,7,2.The international strategies decide the arrangements of china financial reform,Interest,rates,exchange rates,capital,opening and,monetary sovereignty is“,quaternity”,;,the breakthrough of International,monetary and impossible,triangle“,monetary,policy,independence,.,The purpose of,the,preparation of opening capital projects or providing for capital liberalization are not the purposes of the“Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program”.,Figure 2 RMB internationalization is the core of Chinese financial layout,Exchange rate liberalization,Captial opening,Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program,Interest rate marketization,International,8,3.,“沪港通”是人民币国际化的安排,货币国际化的基础是“走得进”；,规模上看，“沪股通”难成资本流入主渠道，意义在于增加了人民币使用渠道。,沪股通总额度为,3000,亿元人民币，每日额度为,130,亿；另有投资范围限制。,图,3,沪股通,:,总投资额度可用余额,图,4,沪股通,:,当日投资额度可用余额,数据来源：,Wind,，,上海证券研究所,9,3.“Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect”is the arrangement of the internationalisation of the RMB,“BACK IN“is the basis,of,currency,internationalization,;,In terms of,scale,it is very difficult for“Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock,Connect”,to become the main channel of capital,inflows,the meaning of the,program is to increase the channels of using RMB,.,The total amount of,“,Shanghai,Stock,Connect”is 300 billion,yuan,The daily,limit is 13 billion yuan;the scope of investment also be limited.,Figure 3,“Shanghai Stock Connect”:The,available,remaining sum of total investment mount,Figure 4,“Shanghai Stock Connect”:The available daily remaining sum,Data source:Wind,Shanghai Securities Institute,10,4.,“沪港通”开放效应有限,“港股通”并不成资本外流渠道，实际上只是对早已存在的内地投资港股现象的确认；,中国金融机构的全球布局对居民资产全球配置推动作用更明显。,港股通总额度为,2500,亿元人民币，每日额度为,105,亿；另有投资范围限制。,图,5,港,股通,:,总投资额度可用余额,图,6,港,股通,:,当日投资额度可用余额,数据来源：,Wind,，,上海证券研究所,11,4.,“,Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect,”,open effect is limited,“Hongkong stock connect”is,not,a,capital outflow,channel,in fact,is only to confirm the phenomenon-the mainland invest to Hong Kong stock;,Chinas financial institutions global layout on residents assets more obvious role in promoting global,configuration.,The total amount of,“HongKong,Stock Connect”is,250,billion yuan,The daily limit is,10.5,billion yuan;the scope of investment also be limited,Figure 5,.“Hongkong Stock Connect”:The,available,remaining sum of total investment mount,Figure 6 .“Hongkong Stock Connect”:The daily available remaining sum,Data source:Wind,Shanghai Securities Institute,12,5.,“沪港通”不改变两地市场运行格局,制度保证：,SPV,安排确保市场构成不变、监控性强；,额度控制、投资范围限制，目前只能购买正股。,标的只数和市值占比（初始）,港股通：,18%,、,83%,；沪股通：,59%,、,89%,。,图,7,沪,股通成交金额占比（日，,%,）,图,8,港,股通成交金额占比（日，,%,）,数据来源：,Wind,，,上海证券研究所,13,5.,“,Shanghai-Hongkong stock connect,”,did not change the operation pattern of two markets,System guarantee,：,SPV arrangements to ensure that the market structure,strong,monitoring;,Amount control,investment,scope limit,the current can only buy stocks,。,The number of targets and market value of the ratio(initial,)Hongkong stock connect,：,18%,、,83%,；,Shanghai stock connect,：,59%,、,89%,。,Figure 7,Shanghai stock connect turnover ratio,（,day,，,%,）,Figure,8 Hongkong stock connect turnover ratio(,day,，,%,）,Data source:Wind,Shanghai Securities Institute,14,6.,国际化推进依赖机构主角,图,9,中国资本项目对外开放额度（亿美元,/,亿元）,数据来源：,Wind,，上海证券研究所,从实际情况看，资本项目开放额度不是问题，说明开放进度是合适的,资本开放的主要问题是国内金融市场的深度和广度均不足,。,2015,年,7-9,月的股市震荡，深刻说明中国金融发展仍然不成熟，仍是“青涩”市场。,6.,The promotion of Internationalization rely on institution,Figure 9 Chinas capital account opening line(Billion dollars/hundred million yuan),Data source:Wind,Shanghai Securities Institute,According to the actual situation,the opening line of capital projects is not a problem,it is appropriate to explain the opening process,.,The main problem of capital opening is the depth and breadth of the financial market in China.,。,T,he shocks of stock,market from July 2015 to,September 2015,profound Chinese financial development is not mature,the market is still young.,7.,金融开放原则：资本开放与人民币国际化推进协调,图,10,中国金融全球化战略是资本开放和本币国际化的结合,以开放促国际化，以国际化促开放，但不单兵突进；,境外人民币离岸市场和人民币外汇，下一步的可能选择,。,“人民币外汇”概念的提出（,2011,）,突破资本开放和自由兑换的传统联系；,境外人民币,=,人民币外汇，目前施行中政策理解略有分歧。,金融阶段战略：,有限全球化,+,充分市场化,参考资料来源：,中国金融战略,2020,（,2011,）,7.,The principle of financial openness:the coordination of capital opening and internationalization of RMB,Figure 10 Chinas financial globalization strategy is the combination of capital opening and local currency internationalization,Let opening up and internationalization reinforce each,other,The two processes should always be carried on together,；,the next step may choose:overseas RMB offshore market and RMB foreign exchange,。,The concept of RMB foreign exchange(2011)-a breakthrough of the traditional relation between capital opening and free exchange,；,Foreign,currency RMB=RMB foreign exchange,currently the understanding of the policy,slightly,different during implementation.,Financial stage strategy,：,Limited Globalization,+,Full market,8.,“沪港通”前景预测,图,11,“沪港通”发展的,2,个可能方向,内容深化：从场内到场外。,2015,年,5,月，两地基金互认，额度进出各,3000,亿。,样本复制：深港通、伦敦通、,。,着眼人民币,离岸市场和国际使用推进。,19,8.The,prospect forecast of“Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect”,Figure 9 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock connet”s two possible direction of development,Content deepening:,from floor to otc.,In May 2015,the,capital connection began to work,and the amount of capital exchanging between shanghai and hongkong is up to,300 billion,yuan,respectively.,Sample copy:,Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program,、,shanghai-London stock connect program,、,。,Focus on the boost of The RMB offshore market and international use.,20,声明与承诺,分析师承诺,本人以勤勉尽责的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告依据公开的信息来源，力求清晰、准确地反映分析师的研究观点。此外，本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与、现在不与、未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。,公司业务资格说明,本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格。,免责条款,本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。报告中的信息和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。我公司及其雇员对任何人使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。,在法律允许的情况下，我公司或其关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行或财务顾问服务。,本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归上海证券有限责任公司所有。未获得上海证券有限责任公司事先书面授权，任何机构和个人均不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制、引用或转载。,上海证券有限责任公司对于上述投资评级体系与评级定义和免责条款具有修改权和最终解释权。,谢谢,THANK,YOU,