商务英语4Unit6.Risk.pptx

,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,Unit 6,Risk,1/34,Warmer,Business Brief,Risk,The chance of harm,injury or loss=thread,The chance of change of direction,growing and making profits,=opportunity,Trade-off:between risk and reward(利害，有多大利，就有多大害。)物物交换,2/34,Warmer,The world is much riskier today,Because everything is much more interconnected.,-risk-management expert Ron Dembo（gave up a professorship at Yale University to launch his company.）,-,Has there ever been a riskier time to be in business?,All business is built on risk.,3/34,Warmer,Risks in business,Kidnapping of mangers,Confiscation of assets（没收，充公）,Devaluation of,shares,currency,Be extorted:illegally be forced to give money.(勒索),Being insolvency:not having enough money to pay debts(无力偿还债务),Facing fraud and corruption,4/34,Warmer,Industrial espionage(商业间谍行为),Invest:putting money into a new venture,Venture capitalist:who put money into such businesses spread their risk so that the payback from one or two successful ventures will hopefully more than compensate for the money lost in the failures.,5/34,Warmer,Reputational risk,brand suicide,product liability claim(产品质量承诺书),Product recalls(产品召回),The risk of management complacency(自满),6/34,Warmer,No Risk,No Reward,youll meet people and organizations that are still prepared to gamble-intelligently,shrewdly,selectively-even in a period of insecurity and instability.Their stories offer lessons in strategy,marketing,leadership,R&D,and innovation.They also remind us that the good moves we dont make can be as consequential as the bad moves we do make-that playing it safe isnt always playing it smart.,7/34,Warmer,Strategy:You cant think traditionally in these circumstances.,Today,Bowers understands,just because something hasnt happened before doesnt mean that it wont happen now,or soon,or sometime.The future is discontinuous and,therefore,risky by definition.By speeding the flow of information,technology has concentrated that risk even more,8/34,Warmer,Playing It Safe,Part 1:The God Gamble,If one outcome seems overwhelmingly preferable,take it-even if it is not certain.,Marketing:To not take a risk is to risk being ignored.,-Hes still surprised that Casio bought in.That was the last idea I ever expected a client to buy,he says.,-Wow,I never expected that from your company!,-How the heck did they get that one approved,-unconventional relationship building.What it really does is push clients toward the marketing edge.,9/34,Warmer,Playing It Safe,Part 2:How much fuel is enough?,A plane departs Newark,New Jersey for Los Angeles.If the flight goes smoothly,it will burn around 40,000 pounds of fuel.If there are glitches,（小误差）,such as lousy weather or congestion over LAX,the plane will need more fuel.Every pound of fuel adds cost and weight,requiring even more fuel.,The problem:How much is just enough?Too much,and the plane incurs more costs.Too little,and the plane may have to divert to another destination-an outcome thats less safe and far more expensive.,10/34,Warmer,Leadership:Wealth is created during periods of uncertainty.,Everything bad that has happened during the past year-the dotcom implosion,the recession,terror,the war-destroyed the illusion that we operate in a world that is continuous and continuously prosperous.As it turns out,our world is nothing like that.Our lives are routinely disrupted,our work dislocated.,Making money depends on identifying opportunities in a turbulent marketplace.,-,Wind,11/34,Warmer,1 Disciplined opportunism.,2 Continuous learning-and unlearning,3 Adaptive experimentation,12/34,Warmer,How to manage risk,If youre not managing risk,you cant claim to be managing your business.,-,-,Ron Dembo,13/34,Warmer,The Past Isnt Always Prologue,Managing risk means thinking about the future,not about the past.Some of the best minds in business misunderstand this point.We all get comfortable basing our strategies for the future on the past.Thats why risks that we didnt anticipate can take us by surprise-and why its so hard to reckon with events for which there is no precedent.The euro debuted last January.Theres never been a euro before:How will it affect how we think about risk?Y2K has never happened before:How do we plan for it?,14/34,Warmer,Different Futures,Different Risks,Theres no such thing as the future.When it comes to risk,the most common error that people make is to think about the future in terms of a single scenario,（方案）,.Why?Well,look at the newspapers;listen to the analysts.Theyre full of predictions:Interest rates will be lower.Internet stocks will crash.The Dow will go down.These so-called experts have no idea whats going to happen.Never confuse a forecast with a scenario.,15/34,Warmer,Regrets-Too Few to Mention?,Lots of people think about risk in terms of probabilities.But probability is a way of analyzing events that occur many times.Most business decisions are one-time events.Thinking about probability doesnt help much with those decisions.Instead,you should think about what I call regret.,Regret isnt the same as disappointment.Regret is sensitive to specific circumstances,and it adds a psychological factor to your choices.,The great chance if you take it,you may make a great achievement,if you miss it,that never come again to your life.,16/34,Warmer,Form phrases with risky,.,Risky business,Risky deal,Risky investment,Risky lending,Risky project,Risky strategy,Risky undertaking,17/34,Understand the quotation,The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.,-Jarwaharla Nehru(1899-1964),Indias first Prime Minister,18/34,Starting up,Task C-D,1 doing nothing,2 credit or guarantee risk,3 political risk,4 risk of catastrophe or disruption(=the risk of not being able to continue business as usual because of some unforeseen event),19/34,Vocabulary:describing risk,Predict,Meet,Assess,Manage,Foresee,Encounter,Fac,e,Calculate,Estimate e,Prioritise,Eliminate,Minimise Reduce Spread,20/34,Vocabulary:describing risk,Task B,1 e 2 f 3 g 4 d 5 c 6 b 7 a,21/34,Vocabulary:describing risk,Task C,High,:,Great,huge,serious,significant,substantial,terrible,tremendous,Low,:,Faint,low,negligible,remote,slight,22/34,Listening:Managing risk,Task A,1 doing nothing,2 credit or guarantee risk,3 political risk,4 risk of catastrophe or disruption,23/34,Listening:Managing risk,1 a)true,B)true,C)false,2 1,),the company will end up with obsolete product in an obsolete market,2,),the customer may not pay,3,),government actions may change the situation.,4,),a company may encounter fraud or criminal damage.,24/34,Listening:Managing risk,Task B,1 companies should have good quality,up-to-date and reli,a,b,le,information available.,2 they should have a good management team in place to identify and deal with risks.,3 there should be good lines of communication between the people in the company who will play an important role in dealing with any risk.,25/34,Reading:Risks from globalization,Task B,1 e 2 g 3 d 4 f 5 a 6 c 7 b,Task D,1 globalization,2 the development of communication technologies,26/34,Reading:Risks from globalization,Task E,a)personal security risk:,terrorism,kidnapping,petty crime,b)reputational risk:d,irect action by pressure groups,consumer activism,human rights demands,c)political risk:i,nternational sanctions,currency devaluation,d)financial risk:o,rganised crime,fraud,corruption,extortion,petty crime,27/34,Reading:Risks from globalization,Task F,For example,the Ss might mention oil companies and environmental protest,pharmaceuticals companies and protectors against recession that particularly affects certain types of company.,28/34,Internet resource:,The Fast Company website features three articles,the first looks at the role of,Risk Managers,in modern companies,another article features advice on,how to manage risk,and the final article argues that there is,no reward without risk,.,29/34,Case study:A risk business,Company type,Family business,Activity,Makes fashionwear,Brandname,ETC,Image,Fashionable clothing at competitive prices,Main product,Jeans and trainers,Current consumer perceptions,Products are losing their appeal,Companys current situation,Struggling,out of touch,losing direction.Management consultants,city associates,brought into advice,30/34,Case study:A risk business,Assets,other than stock,have declined in value,by 20 per cent,perhaps they have sold some equipment or property,or the overall value of its equipment has fallen because it is not being replaced.,Stock has more than doubled in value,perhaps indicating an increase in stock that they have not succeeded in selling.,Sales have declined by 25 per cent,and profits even more sharply,confirming the difficult situation described above.,31/34,Title,Title,Title,Description of the contents,Description of the contents,Description of the contents,32/34,配色方案修改：,配色方案在,【,格式,】-【,幻灯片设计,】-【,配色方案,】-【,编辑配色方案,】,下调整。,LOGO,添加,：,Logo,添加修改在,【,视图,】-【,母版,】-【,幻灯片母版,】,下调整。直接选择,logo,图片删除或修改。,字体格式设置,：,标题和文本格式设置在,【,视图,】-【,母版,】-【,幻灯片母版,】,下调整。,默认设置：,首页主标题,40,号（汉字黑体英文,Arial,）加粗加阴影；副标题,18,号（汉字黑体英文,Arial,）加粗,内页标题,38,号（汉字黑体英文,Arial,）加粗加阴影；内页内容文字,32,号（宋体）,33/34,本模板作品由,PowerBar,模板组组员创作，部分图片素材起源于互联网，如有侵犯您权利请即通知，立刻处理,您能够自由：复制、发行、展览、演出、放映、广播或经过信息网络传输本作品,;,创作演绎作品惟须恪守以下条件：您必须按照作者或者许可人指定方式对作品进行署名,;,不得以盈利为目标对本模板进行出售、收费下载或者做非实质性改动之后进行类似行为。,作者：,Rhea,34/34,