宏观经济学-第四章-中英双语版.ppt

,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,slide,*,Money and Inflation,货币与通货膨胀,4,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,In this chapter,you will learn,在这个章节，你将学到,The classical theory of inflation,通货膨胀的古典理论,Causes,原因,Effects,效应,social costs,社会成本,“Classical”assumes prices are flexible&markets clear,古典理论,-,假设价格有完全灵活性的意义,&,市场出清,Applies to the long run,描述了长期中的经济行为,U.S.inflation and its trend,1960-2006,美国,1960-2006,年通货膨胀及其趋势,slide,2,0%,3%,6%,9%,12%,15%,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,长期趋势,1,年内,CPI,的变化,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The connection between money and prices,货币和价格之间的关系,Inflation rate=the percentage increase in the average level of prices.,通货膨胀率,:,价格总体水平的百分比变动,Price=amount of money required to buy a good.,价格：货币交换产品或服务的比率,Because prices are defined in terms of money,we need to consider the nature of money,the supply of money,and how it is controlled.,由于价格定义在金钱方面，我们需要考虑货币的性质，货币供应量，以及它是如何控制。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money:Definition,货币的定义,Money,is the stock of assets that can be readily used to make transactions.,货币是可以很容易地用于交易的资产存量,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money:Functions,货币的职能,medium of exchange,交换媒介,we use it to buy stuff,用以购买产品与服务的东西,The ease with which money is converted into other things is called moneys liquidity.,一种资产可以转变为交换媒介和用于交换其他东西,产品与服务,的容易程度有时称为该资产的流动性,store of value,价值储藏手段,transfers purchasing power from the present to the future,一种把购买力从现在转换到未来的方式,unit of account,计价单位,the common unit by which everyone measures prices and values,提供了可以标记价格和记录债务的单位,An economy without money:a barter economy,一个没有货币的经济：物物交换的经济,Double coincidence of wants,交易要求需求的双向一致性,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money:Types,货币的类型,commodity money,商品货币,has intrinsic value,具有某种内在价值的商品,examples:,例如：,gold coins(gold standard),黄金（金本位制）,cigarettes in P.O.W.camps,纳粹战俘营中的香烟,fiat money,法定货币,has no intrinsic value,没有内在价值,example:the paper currency we use,例如：纸钞,The system of commodity money evolves into a system of fiat money.The use of money in exchange is a social convention:everyone values fiat money because they expect everyone else to value it.,商品货币制度的演变成一个系统的法定货币。金钱，以换取使用的是一种社会约定：每个人价值观的法定货币，是因为他们期望其他人都珍惜它,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Discussion Question,问题讨论,Which of these are money?,这是哪些货币？,a.,Currency,钞票,b.,Checks,支票,c.,Deposits in checking accounts(“demand deposits”),支票账户存款（“活期存款”）,d.,Credit cards,信用卡,e.,Certificates of deposit(“time deposits”),存款证（“定期存款”）,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The money supply and monetary policy definitions,货币供应量和货币政策的定义,The,money supply,is the quantity of money available in the economy.,一个经济中可以得到的货币量称为货币供给,Monetary policy,is the control over the money supply.,政府对货币供给的控制被称为货币政策,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The central bank,中央银行,Monetary policy is conducted by a countrys,central bank,.,货币政策委托给一个称为中央银行的部分独立的机构。,In the U.S.,the central bank is called the,Federal Reserve,(“the Fed”).,在美国，中央银行被称为联邦储备委员会（“美联储”）。,Open market operations:the purchase and sale of government bonds,increase or decrease the money supply.,公开市场操作：在购买和出售政府债券，增加或减少货币供应量。,See Chap.18 for details.,在第,18,章将会详细讨论美联储如何控制货币供给,The Federal Reserve Building,Washington,DC,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money supply measures,April 2006(Quantity of Money),货币衡量标准，,2006,年,5,月（货币供给量）,$6799,M1,+small time deposits,savings deposits,money market mutual funds,money market deposit accounts,M1,加货币市场共同基金余额、储蓄存款（包括货币市场存款账户）以及小额定期存款,M2,$1391,C,+demand deposits,travelers checks,other checkable deposits,通货加活期存款、旅行支票和其他支票性存款,M1,$739,Currency,货币,C,amount,($billions),数量（,10,亿美元）,assets included,包括的资产,Symbol,符号,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The Quantity Theory of Money,货币数量论,How does the quantity of money affect the economy?,货币量如何影响经济？,A simple theory linking the quantity of money to other economic variables such as prices and incomes.,需要一个关于货币量如何与价格和收入等其他经济变量相关的理论。,Begins with the concept of,velocity,从货币的交易流通速度开始,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity equation,数量方程,The,quantity equation,数量方程,M,V,=,P,T,follows from the preceding definition of velocity.,这个方程式将货币量、货币流通速度、经济中产品与劳务的价值联系在一起,T:Total number of transactions during some period of time.,T,代表某一时期比如说一年的交易总数,P:the price of a typical transaction(number of dollars exchanged).,P,是一次典型交易的价格,交换的美元数量,P*T:The number of dollars exchanged in a year.,P*T:,等于一年中交换的美元量,It is an,identity:,it holds by definition of the variables.,它是一种恒等式：四个变量的定义确保了这个恒等式的正确。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Velocity,货币流通速度,basic concept:the rate at which money circulates,基本概念：货币流通的速度。,definition:the number of times the average dollar bill changes hands in a given time period,定义,:,在一个给定的时期一张美元钞票转手的次数。,example:In 2007,$500 billion in transactions,money supply=$100 billion,The average dollar is used in five transactions in 2007,So,velocity=5 times per year,例如：在,2007,年,500,亿美元的交易中，货币供给量为,100,亿美元，平均,1,美元在,2007,年能交易,5,次，所以，,2007,年的货币流通速度为每年,5,次。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Velocity,cont.,后续,This suggests the following definition:,这表明了以下定义：,where,V,=velocity,P*T,=value of all transactions,M,=money supply,V,为货币的交易流通速度，,P*T,为一年中交换的美元量，,M,为货币量。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Slightly different version of the quantity equation,其他版本的数量方程式,Use nominal GDP(output)as a proxy for total transactions.,名义国内生产总值（输出）作为总交易额的替代。,Then,where,P,=price of output,一单位产出的价格,(GDP deflator),GDP,平减指数,Y,=quantity of output,产出量,(real GDP),实际,GDP,P,Y,=value of output,产出的美元价值,(nominal GDP),名义,GDP,V,=,income,velocity of money,货币的收入流通速度,Note:Output Transaction(difficult to measure),注：交易次数难以衡量,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money demand and the quantity equation,货币需求函数和数量方程式,M,/,P,=,real money balances,the purchasing power of the money supply.,M/P,称为实际货币余额，用来衡量货币存量的购买力,A simple money demand function:,一个简单的货币需求函数：,(,M,/,P,),d,=,k,Y,where,k,=how much money people wish to hold for each dollar of income.(,k,is exogenous),K,为常数，它告诉我们对于每,1,美元的收入，人们想要持有的货币是多少。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money demand and the quantity equation,货币需求函数和数量方程式,money demand,货币需求函数,:,(,M,/,P,),d,=,k,Y=M/P,rearranging,变形,M(1/k),=,PY,quantity equation,数量方程,:,M,V,=,P,Y,The connection between them,它们之间的关系,:1/,k,=,V,When people hold lots of money relative to their incomes(,k,is high),money changes hands infrequently(,V,is low),and vice versa.,当人们想对每一美元的收入持有大量货币时（,K,大），货币转手就不频繁（,V,小）。相反，当人们想对每一美元的收入持有少量货币时（,K,小），货币转手就频繁（,V,大）。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Back to the quantity theory of money,回到货币数量论,starts with quantity equation,assumes,V,is constant&exogenous:,With this assumption,the quantity equation can be written as,the quantity theory of money.,Of course,if money demand function changes,velocity changes(,eg,.introduction of ATM).,从数量方程式说起，假设,V,是固定的，不变的，那么，数量方程式就陈伟关于货币效应的理论，称为货币数量论。当货币需求函数变动，货币流通速度确实在变动。（例如自动取款机）。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity theory of money,cont.,后续,Q.How is,the price level determined?,问：价格水平是如何确定的,？,With,V,constant,the money supply determines nominal GDP(,P,Y,).,随着,V,不变，货币供给决定名义,GDP,（,P,Y,）。,Real GDP is determined by the economys supplies of,K,and,L,and the production function(Chap 3).,实际,GDP,实质是由经济的生产能力所决定的。（第,3,章）。,The price level is,P,=(nominal GDP)/(real GDP).,价格水平是,P=,（名义,GDP,）,/,（实际,GDP,）。,The quantity theory implies that the price level is proportional to the money supply!,货币数量论意味着，价格水平和货币供给成比例。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity theory of money,cont.,后续,Q.What about inflation?,什么是通货膨胀,Recall from Chapter 2:,回顾第二章,The growth rate of a product equals the sum of the growth rates.,一个产品的增长率等于增长率的总和,The quantity equation in growth rates:,增长率的数量方程,货币数量论假设,V,是常量，,所以货币流通速度的百分比变动为,0,。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity theory of money,cont.,后续,(Greek letter“pi”)denotes the inflation rate:,代表通货膨胀率,The result from the preceding slide was:,这意味着,Solve this result for,to get,于是有,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity theory of money,cont.,后续,Normal economic growth requires a certain amount of money supply growth to facilitate the growth in transactions.,正常的经济增长要求货币数量供给的适量增长以适应交易的增长。,Money growth in excess of this amount leads to inflation.,超额的供给则会导致通货膨胀。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The quantity theory of money,cont.,后续,Y,/,Y,depends on growth in the factors of production and on technological progress,(all of which we take as given,for now),.,Y,/,Y,依赖于要素的增长与技术的进步，我们暂时将它们视为固定的。,Hence,the Quantity Theory predicts a one-for-one relation between changes in the money growth rate and changes in the inflation rate.,因此，货币数量论说明了货币增长变化和通货膨胀率变化的一一对应的关系。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Confronting the quantity theory with data,面对数量理论与数据,The quantity theory of money implies,countries with higher money growth rates should have higher inflation rates.,the long-run trend behavior of a countrys inflation should be similar to the long-run trend in the countrys money growth rate.,“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary,pehnomenon,”(Milton Friedman),Are the data consistent with these implications?,货币数量理论暗示较高的货币增长率的国家应该有较高的通货膨胀率。一个国家的通货膨胀的长期趋势行为在该国的货币增长率的长期趋势应该是相似的。,“,通货膨胀在任何时间、任何地点都是一种货币现象,”,（米尔顿,弗里德曼）以下数据是否符合这些影响？,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,International data on inflation and money growth,通货膨胀和货币增长的国际数据,Singapore,U.S.,Switzerland,Argentina,Indonesia,Turkey,Belarus,Ecuador,通货膨胀率,货币供给的增长,U.S.inflation and money growth,1960-2006,美国,1960-2006,的通货膨胀与货币增长,slide,26,0%,3%,6%,9%,12%,15%,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,M2 growth rate,inflation rate,Over the long run,the inflation and money growth rates move together,as the quantity theory predicts.,从长远来看，就如数量理论预测的那样，通货膨胀率和货币增长一起移动。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money in the long run,vs,short run,从长期与短期两方面看货币,This theory of inflation works best in the long run,not in the short run.,Monthly data,instead of data for ten-year periods,does not show clear and close connection between money growth and inflation.,The short-run impact of changes in the quantity of money will be discussed in later chapters when we talk about economic fluctuations.,通货膨胀的理论从长期角度来说是好的。月度数据，而不是,10,年期间的数据，并没有显示明确和货币增长和通货膨胀之间的密切联系。将讨论在后面的章节中，当我们谈论经济波动的短期影响货币数量的变化,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Seigniorage,货币铸造税,To spend more without raising taxes or selling bonds,the,govt,can print money.,政府的筹资来源：税收、债券和发行钞票。,The“revenue”raised from printing money is called,seigniorage,(pronounced SEEN-your-,idge,).,从印刷钞票中所获得的收入叫做铸币税,The,inflation tax,:Printing money to raise revenue causes inflation.Inflation is like a tax on people who hold money.,就像通货膨胀税：政府货币供给的增加导致通货膨胀，发行货币筹集收入就像征收一种通货膨胀税。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Inflation and interest rates,通货膨胀和利率,Nominal interest rate,i,not adjusted for inflation,名义利率,i,没有考虑通货膨胀因素,Real interest rate,r,adjusted for inflation:,r,=,i,实际利率,i,考虑了通货膨胀因素,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The Fisher effect,费雪效应,The Fisher equation,费雪方程式,:,i,=,r,+,Chap 3:,S,=,I,determines,r,.,上一章中：,S=I,决定,r,Hence,an increase in,causes an equal increase in,i,.,因此，,的一次增长会导致,i,的相同增加,This one-for-one relationship is called the,Fisher effect,.,这种一一对应的关系叫做费雪效应,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Inflation and nominal interest rates in the U.S.,1955-2006,美国,1955-2006,年通货膨胀率与名义利率,percent per year,-5,0,5,10,15,1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,inflation rate,nominal interest rate,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Inflation and nominal interest rates across countries,不同国家的通货膨胀率和名义利率,Switzerland,Germany,Brazil,Romania,Zimbabwe,Bulgaria,U.S.,Israel,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Exercise:,练习题,Suppose,V,is constant,M,is growing 5%per year,Y,is growing 2%per year,and,r,=4.,a.Solve for,i,.,b.If the Fed increases the money growth rate by 2 percentage points per year,find,i,.,c.Suppose the growth rate of,Y,falls to 1%per year.,What will happen to,?,What must the Fed do if it wishes to keep,constant?,假设,V,是常数，,M,是每年增长,5,，,Y,是每年增长,2,，,r=4,。,A.,计算,i.,B.,如果美联储增加货币增长率为每年,2,个百分点，求,i,。,C.,假设,Y,每年下降,1%,。通货膨胀率如何变化？美联储能采取怎样的措施使通货膨胀率保持稳定？,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Answers:,答案：,a.,=5,2=3.,i,=,r,+,=4+3=7.,b.,i,=2,same as the increase in the money growth rate.,相同的货币增长率的增加,c.If the Fed does nothing,=1.,To prevent inflation from rising,Fed must reduce the money growth rate by 1 percentage point per,year,.,如果美联储不采取措施，,=1,。,为了预防通货膨胀率的增长，美联储应该每年降低,1%,货币增长率。,V,is constant,M,grows 5%per year,Y,grows 2%per year,r,=4.,假设,V,是常数，,M,是每年增长,5,，,Y,是每年增长,2,，,r=4,。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Two real interest rates,两种实际利率：事前的与事后的,=actual inflation rate (not known until after it has occurred),代表实际的未来通货膨胀率,e,=expected inflation rate,e,代表未来通货膨胀率的预期,i,e,事前实际利率,=,ex ante,real interest rate:the real interest rate people expect at the time they buy a bond or take out a loan,i,事后实际利率,=,ex post,real interest rate:the real interest rate actually realized,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Money demand and the nominal interest rate,货币需求与名义利率,In the quantity theory of money,the demand for real money balances depends only on real income,Y,.,货币数量论假设对真实货币余额的需求仅依赖于真实收入。,Another determinant of money demand:,the nominal interest rate,i,.,the opportunity cost of holding money(instead,of bonds or other interest-earning assets).,我们现在考虑另外一个决定货币需求的因素，即名义利率。名义利率是持有货币的机会成本。,Hence,i,in money,demand,.,因此,i,货币需求下降,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The money demand function,货币需求函数,(,M,/,P,),d,=real money demand,depends,真实货币需求，依赖于,negatively on,i,和,i,负相关,i,is the,opp,.cost of holding money,i,代表了持有货币的成本,positively on,Y,与,Y,正相关,higher,Y,more spending,越高的消费,so,need more money,因此，需要更多的货币,(“,L,”,is used for the money demand function because money is the most,l,iquid asset.),L,代表货币需求，这是因为货币经济中最具流动性的资产。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,The money demand function,货币需求函数,When people are deciding whether to hold money or bonds,they dont know what inflation will turn out to be.,Hence,the nominal interest rate relevant for money demand is,r,+,e,.,当人们事先决定持有多少货币时，他们并不知道通货膨胀率事后会有多高。,因此，是名义利率,r,+,e,相当于货币需求,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,Equilibrium,均衡,The supply of real money balances,Real money demand,真实余额货币的供给,真实货币需求,Figure 4.5,The Linkages Among Money,Prices,and Interest Rates,Mankiw,:Macroeconomics,Sixth Edition,Copyright 2007 by Worth Publishers,Linkages among money,prices,and interest rates.,货币、价格和利率之间的联系,货币供给,货币需求,价格水平,通货膨胀率,名义利率,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,What determines what,什么决定什么,variablehow determined,(in the long run),变量 长期的决定因素,M,exogenous(the Fed),外生的 央行决定,r,adjusts to make,S,=,I,调整到,s=i,Y,P,adjusts to make,调整到,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,How,P,responds to,M,P,如何对,M,调整,For given values of,r,Y,and,e,a change in,M,causes,P,to change by the same percentage just like in the quantity theory of money.,对于给定的,r,y,e,M,的一次增加导致,P,同比例的增加，这就像货币数量论的观点。,CHAPTER 4,Money and Inflation,What about,expected inflation,?,预期通货膨胀率,Over the long run,people dont consistently over-or under-forecast inflation,so,e,=,on average.,在长期，人们不可能总是预期过高或过低，因此平均来看长期必有,e,=,In the short run,e,may change when people get new information.,在短期，,e,会随人们获得新的信息而变化,EX:Fed announces it will increase,M,next year.People will expect next years,P,to be higher,so,e,rises.,比如，人民银行宣布明年增加,M,，这样人们预期明年的,P,较高，因此,e,增加。,This affects,P,now,even though,M,hasnt changed yet.,这将影响到现在的,P,，尽管,M,还没有变