工业自动化是否正在走向转折点？.pdf

Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?June 2023A gradually evolving industry now faces nonlinear competition and technological shifts.Here are two key scenarios for the future.by Harald Bauer,David Ebenstein,Giulietta Poltronieri,and Jan Paul SteinExecutive summaryOver the past few decades,industrial automation has evolved gradually,with few changes in market structure.But the pace of change is accelerating thanks to technology disruptions and macrotrends such as reshoring,a global skilled-labor shortage,and environmental,social,and governance(ESG)efforts.Innovations in digitalization and connectivity as well as advances in processing power and design regularly disrupt markets.In the smartphone market,the iPhone and the iTunes ecosystem redefined what consumers wanted and how they would get it.The idea of software-defined cars that could be updated over the airsometimes called“smartphones on wheels”first became reality in the automotive market in 2012.Is the day likewise coming when software-defined manufacturing will turn shop floors into“smartphones with robotic arms”?A scenario analysis by McKinsey suggests that the answer is yes.According to our analysis,many of todays most advanced trends in manufacturing technologiessuch as digital twins,robots capable of teaching themselves,and devices that can do their own programmingwill become commonplace in the future.These trends will enable a“software-defined”paradigm for industrial automation.It is harder to predict when this future will arrive.It may come in 15 years,but it also may come in five years,depending on the speed of technological advances and their adoption in different industrial sectors.Which time frame turns out to be correct has important implications for companies near-term strategies.Providers and end users can form their own sense of this time frame by tracking inflection points in the development of ten key automation technologies.To get a better sense of industrial automations current and future state,McKinsey conducted a survey of 188 industrial automation users and vendors.Insights also came from interviews with more than 20 experts in the field(see sidebar,“The basis for this report”).This report goes into detail on the following points:Automation users perceptions.Ninety-four percent of the users participating in our survey said digital solutions will be important to their automation efforts in the future.Users focus in the past few years has shifted away from self-developed digital solutions that often did not go beyond learning exercises.Fifty-four percent of manufacturing companies now use OEM partnerships in a bid to develop standardized industrial IoT platforms.Thats close to an eightfold increase since 2019.Changes in the supplier landscape.The report identifies four vendor archetypeshyperscalers;automation players,including machinery equipment manufacturers;software players;and specialized playersand shows how each of their strategies are evolving.Of the four archetypes,hyperscalers,or cloud-service providers that have already disrupted other industries,are changing industrial automation the most.Hyperscalers are moving into the embedded software and hardware part of the automation stack and are starting to grab a larger share of industrial automation spending.At an estimated 18 percent,the market for connectivity and industrial IoT(IIoT)will grow faster than any other part of the industrial automation market.This is the key source of revenues for hyperscalers within industrial automation.Game-changing technologies.Soft programmable logic controllers(PLCs),digital twins,and teach-less robotics are among the ten key technologies that are ushering in the future of automation.This report describes how the key technologies will revolutionize factory 1Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?operations.It also identifies the inflection points that may cause the technologies to take off.For instance,advances in connectivity and data exchange protocols would likely spur the growth of soft PLCs;rising labor costs would drive more development and interest in teach-less robotics;and AI is a strong enabler of almost all of the ten key technologies.Two potential scenarios.There are two scenarios for the future of industrial automation that basically differ by the speed at which technology will be adopted.The first,more likely scenario is one of gradual market development.However,a second scenarioinvolving a much faster transitionis also possible and would necessitate dramatic changes for both suppliers and manufacturing plants by 2030.Potential courses of action for those in industrial automation.Different players in industrial automation can do quite a few things today to prepare for the future.Hyperscalers might expand their domain know-how and set up partnerships with established automation players and system integrators.Automation players might consider moving up the technology stack,strengthening their positions in software and in cloud or IoT platforms.And automation usersthe manufacturing plants themselvesmay want to take steps to expand their digital capabilities,since they will need these capabilities no matter what comes and when.The basis for this reportThis report is based partly on an external survey of 188 industrial automation users and vendors.We also gathered insights from more than 20 McKinsey and external experts with deep experience in industrial automation.Finally,we gathered information from public and proprietary sources to analyze the strategies of different automation players.Those information sources included the ARC Advisory Group,International Data Corporation(IDC),and IHS Markit.2Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?Todays landscape and what could disrupt itThe potential of industrial automation is most obvious in the tiny percentage of manufacturing sites known as“digital lighthouse factories.”These plants are leading the way in automation.Digital analytics and IoT solutions arent just in the plants producing the end products;theyre in these manufacturers whole value chains.A survey by the World Economic Forum found that 93 percent of lighthouse factories had gotten a growth benefit from their embrace of automation.1 Most of the growth benefit came from the ability to increase their output,with automation leading to new revenue streams for a handful of factories.The vast majority of the worlds factories have nowhere near the level of automation and digitalization of lighthouse factories.This is because factories set up 20,30,40,or even more years ago were not designed with the benefits and needs of modern automation technologies in mind.The automation at these brownfield plants tends to be piecemealfor a specific machine or process.Factories built later can have full-plant automation based on a single standardized architecture in an environment in which information technology(IT)and operational technology(OT)converge.Besides the age of a factory,industrial sector and geography are also factors that influence how much automation a plant has.In particular,the wages,subsidies,and number of skilled workers available in a certain geography can drive more or less automation of factories there.With plants automating and digitalizing brownfield projects at different speedsand improving processes specific to their own needsautomation vendors have been conservative in developing their strategies.Those strategies have tended to assume incremental,rather than disruptive,market changes.But three developments may make it risky for providers to stay with a conservative strategy for industrial automation.The three developments that are threatening the status quo are the following:Hyperscalers growing interest in industrial automation.Hyperscalerswhich allow companies to outsource large amounts of their data processingare looking to do more business with manufacturing clients.Although their starting points are clearly their cloud platforms and data analytics capabilities,hyperscalers have made rapid progress in their industrial automation business.Theyve also used M&A to position themselves as solution providers in other areas of automation more directly tied to factory operations.The emergence of new technologies.It wasnt so long ago that digital twins and teach-less robots seemed far off.The same was true of 5G and Wi-Fi 6two forms of wireless connectivity that offer a quantum leap in bandwidth and in the number of connected devices.These technologies are starting to mature,and users interest in them is increasing.A sense that automation can address new boardroom imperatives.The initial appeal of automation was in the cost reduction and productivity improvements it could provide,at a high level of reliability.Today,many industries that embraced automation early have largely captured these benefits.In addition,the global economy is facing the megatrends of ESG,a skilled-labor shortage,and supply chain disruptions.Together,these factors are shifting attention to other potential benefits of automationnamely,resilience,flexibility,and sustainability.This will create opportunities for automation vendors that can deliver these benefits.In different ways,these changes could all imperil the fortunes of todays industrial automation providers.These providers need to have a clear picture of how the automation market is developing and of how they will respond under different scenarios.1The Global Lighthouse Network,an initiative of the World Economic Forum,conducted the survey in 2020.3Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?Overview of the current marketIndustrial automation products in the following three categories will represent an approximately$115 billion global market in 2025,according to McKinseys estimates,representing compound annual growth of about 3.5 percent since 2019.The distribution of manufacturers investments will vary by industry as companies look to improve their efficiency and mitigate their risks.The risks for manufacturers include supply chain disruptions such as the global semiconductor shortage,soaring raw-material prices,and energy prices,which are an especially big problem in the European Union.By automating processes and using data to optimize operations,manufacturers may be able to reduce the impact of these supply chain problems.A good way to get a sense of the industrial automation market and to understand how its growing is to break it down by segment.Classical automation equipment2 for process manufacturing industries.Process industries spend the most on industrial automation products.These industries use mixing,boiling,blending,and other processes to join ingredients based on formulas and recipes.The process takes place in batches,leading to finished products whose ingredients,once combined,can no longer be separated.Process industries have been spending the most by far to automate their traditional equipment because their control systems are usually larger and are purchased for considerably longer durations.In total,they will spend about$76 billion in 2025,up from$64 billion in 2019,according to our forecasta CAGR of about 2.8 percent.Oil and gas is the biggest automation buyer among the process industries,slightly ahead of chemicals,though it is growing at the slowest pace.Classical automation equipment for discrete manufacturing industries.Discrete manufacturing industries make goods from individual parts according to a job order record.The production work usually takes place in different areas and is done independently or sequentially.Automation spending is considerably lower in this manufacturing category($26 billion in 2019)but is growing faster(at a CAGR of about 3.9 percent),with high variation between sectors.The semiconductor and electronics and electrical sectors are increasing their automation spending the fastest.Industrial IoT and cloud services for process and discrete manufacturing.This last segment includes all the solutions that connect industrial equipment within a factory and that enable the use of data analytics and the creation of data-driven supply chains.It is the smallest automation product segment but,at 18 percent,the fastest growing.From a vendor perspective,IIoT and cloud services is also the most concentrated product segment(Exhibit 1).2Classic automation equipment,as classified under the ISA-95 standard,generally refers to the hardware and software components that are involved in controlling and monitoring industrial processes.4Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?Exhibit 1Total market size,$billion:92.6(2019),114.7(2025)Note:Figures may not sum,because of rounding.1This is defned based on the North American Industry Classifcation System(NAICS)Standard Industrial Code 36(except 3674):Electronic and Other Electrical Equipment and Components,Except Computer Equipment.2Trasmission and distribution.3Includes cement and glass,electric power transmission and distribution,metals,mining,pharmaceutical and biotech,pulp and paper,and textiles.4Includes aerospace and defense,buildings,furniture and wood products,medical products,plastics and rubber,and printing and publishing.5Includes metals,mining,and pharmaceutical and biotech.6Includes transportation and logistics and wholesale and distribution.Source:ARC Advisory Group;McKinsey analysisSize and rates of growth vary in diferent segments of industrial automation.McKinsey&CompanyTraditional automation by verticalProcessDiscreteCloud and industrial Internet of Things platform automation by verticalAerospace and defenseMedical productsElectric power T&D2AutomotiveMachineryElectronics and electrical1SemiconductorsFabricated metalsOil and gasChemicalElectric power generationFood and beverageRefningWater and wastewaterOther201920257.349.442.22.62.23.12.53.45.36.66.47.22019202516.6320.935.36.95.46.46.47.58.49.110.712.811.712.2+17.5+18.3+14.6+19.4+18.0+2.2+3.7+5.7+6.1+3.1+4.1+19.5CAGR,%CAGR,%64.475.9+2.825.932.4+3.91.43.9+18.3ProcessDiscrete201920250.561.260.00.10.10.30.20.60.20.50.10.40.30.7201920250.250.650.10.10.10.40.10.30.20.60.20.5+0.7+3.0+1.4+2.9+2.9+18.7+19.4+18.3+22.2+23.0+16.6+16.0+4.7+3.9CAGR,%CAGR,%0.92.5+17.75Is industrial automation headed for a tipping point?Whats changing and what people say:Our surveyDigital solutions are seen as an increasingly important part of companies factory automation efforts.That came through in our survey of automation users and vendors.Sixty-nine percent of respondents said digital solutions are already an important part of their automation efforts.Even more94 percentsaid such solutions would be important to their automation efforts in the future(see sidebar,“Who we surveyed”).The drumbeat of technological advances seems to be pushing industrial automation toward mature,functional solutions.This is evident in the growing number of partnerships and codevelopment efforts.A critical question in the survey addressed how users today create