2025年全球媒介趋势预测报告.pdf

2025MEDIA TRENDS&PREDICTIONSContentsi0113253547IntroductionThe media ecosystem Optimism,convergence and an identity crisisContent The boom,bust,and battle for audience attentionData,tech,and analytics Navigating privacy,regulation,and the rise of AIAudience measurement Redefining the status quo for a fragmented media worldPeople and skills Future-proofing the media ecosystemWant to feel confident about the future?Then focus on people from every angleTodays media landscape is shaped by a convergence of major trends,including market volatility,evolving industry dynamics,and the increasing complexity of media and technology.Macro factors,such as international crises and political change,add further instability.At the core of these challenges,however,lies one dominant challenge for media buyers and sellers:a crisis of confidence.And when confidence is lacking,regulations tend to tighten,audiences can shift,business models and revenue streams might be disrupted,and investment can dry up.However,the current situation,though challenging,does not pose an existential threat.This report highlights several reasons for optimism,notably sustained advertising expenditure and the advent of emerging technologies.The latter,in particular,are poised to drive growth,foster innovation,and enhance industry resilience.But ad spend growth or investing in new tech alone will still not resolve the industrys core challenges.The future of media ultimately depends on a renewed focus on people both within the industry and the audiences it serves.Indeed,the sectors most valuable asset is its highly skilled workforce,and their ability to innovate and adapt will be critical in steering the industry forward.Beyond just driving technological advancement,these individuals are the ones who can interpret and apply the tools of AI and data to address the unique challenges of todays media landscape.Their insights,creativity,and strategic thinking will be the foundation upon which future success is built.But we need more of them,and the ones we have need to embrace and learn new skills.Equally important is the role of people as consumers.The media industry exists to serve audiences,and understanding the evolving preferences and behaviours of these consumers will be key to shaping media strategies.In a world where online experiences are more immersive and personalised,peoples media consumption habits are increasingly fluid.The ongoing shift in how audiences engage with content from linear television to streaming,social media,and beyond presents both an opportunity and a challenge.Success will depend on the industrys ability to not only deliver compelling content but also to accurately measure how,when,and why people engage with it.Thats why people-powered measurement is the final crucial element in this equation.At its core,its about understanding audiences at a granular level,utilising data-driven insights to refine strategies for reach,engagement and monetisation.But again,its also about the people behind the metrics the data scientists,analysts,marketers,and strategists who make sense of complex data sets to inform decision-making and build compelling narratives.They bridge the gap between raw data and actionable insights,enabling businesses to respond to changing audience behaviours with agility.In this context,the media industrys future rests not only on the technological innovations that will shape its operations but on the people who drive those innovations and the consumers who ultimately engage with them.2025 will require a balance between leveraging cutting-edge technology and fostering human expertise and creativity.By focusing on both,the industry can bolster confidence,de-risk decision-making,tap into new opportunities,and continue to evolve in a way thats both innovative and sustainable.John McCarthyChief Marketing Officer Kantar Mediajohn.mccarthyThe media ecosystem Optimism,convergence-and an identity crisisRising ad spend and blurred boundaries are transforming media,presenting both challenges and opportunities for a market in fluxA trillion reasons to be positive about advertising investmentDespite a range of trends causing a crisis of confidence for the sector,ad investment is one of many reasons to feel optimistic.In 2024,global advertising expenditure was forecast to increase by 10.5%to reach a milestone of$1.07 trillion,marking the strongest growth in six years,according to WARCs Global Ad Spend Outlook.This level of growth,initially forecast by GroupM to occur in 2025,was spurred by significant investments across various regions and channels.1 2North America,buoyed by US election advertising,led with a forecast of+8.6%to$347.5bn.In Europe,ad spend is forecast to rise by 5%,with the UK securing the largest spend in the region,growing 8%to$47.5bn.Meanwhile,social media in all its forms now the largest single category,having overtaken search,and excluding YouTube in WARCs methodology accounted for 22.6%of global ad spend.Meanwhile,retail media advertising placed on a retailers media network emerged as the fastest-growing channel,expected to double its share to 14.3%by 2026.TV continues to grow across most formats.Indeed,as more delivery formats become available,the more apparent the power of the TV set itself the second-strongest growth channel,for instance,is expected to be connected TV(CTV)with a 19.6%increase in ad spend to$35.2bn.Convergence spreadsWhile advertising remains a core focus,2024 saw media brands increasingly diversifying their business models to stay competitive in an evolving,hybrid media landscape.This shift reflects the growing need to expand beyond existing revenue streams,with businesses exploring new partnerships and opportunities across platforms to keep pace with changing consumer behaviour,technological innovation,and increased competition.For example,VOD platforms that lean on subscriptions are increasingly deploying a blend of paid subscriptions and ad-supported models and Kantar Medias TGI Global Quick View data indicates that 58%of connected consumers globally would accept adverts if it reduced their TV or video streaming subscription costs.2024 TrendsInterestingly,theres a clear difference between heavier and lighter VOD viewers,with heavier users far more open to ads(see chart).Often subscribed to multiple services,theyre motivated by the chance to lower their monthly costs.Lighter users,however,tend to resist ad-supported models,likely due to time constraints that make ad interruptions less appealing.These distinctions highlight the need for targeted strategies to convert different audiences.This continued shift towards hybrid business models often characterised by experimentation,false starts and dead ends is becoming a staple across the industry.Many media brands,whether they started as native VOD services,broadcasters and networks,or as print editions,are now capitalising on a variety of monetisation strategies to leverage their content and audience reach effectively.The media ecosystem Heavier streaming users are more likely to accept ads in their streaming service if it makes it cheaper(by time spent watching any streaming service per day)25%37%46%51%60%65%70%78%Global average Less than 30mins30 mins to 1 hour1-2 hours2-3 hours3-5 hours5-7 hours7-9 hoursMore than 9 hoursSource:TGI Global Quick View 2024 Sample:84,000 connected consumers in 37 marketsStatement:Any Agree-“I would be happy with adverts on a TV/Video streaming service as long as my subscription was cheaper”58%34and an identity crisis unfoldsAs media brands experiment with new business models,the industry is also grappling with a growing identity crisis as existing boundaries between platforms blur,creating a converging ecosystem of multifaceted media brands.This transformation is more than just semantics;it represents a fundamental shift in how content is created,consumed,and distributed.The situation is further complicated by naming conventions that often confuse both audiences and industry professionals,potentially undermining audience classification efforts when there is uncertainty about inherently similar VOD differentiators like AVOD,SVOD,BVOD,and TVOD.Synthetic media heralds a new eraOn the subject of complex media definitions,the industry collectively shone a spotlight on a relatively new term in 2024:synthetic media.This refers to the ability to generate highly realistic,entirely machine-made content using artificial intelligence(AI).5 Whether the name sticks or not,synthetic media is poised to have a profound impact on the sector.Major media owners including the UKs largest commercial broadcaster,ITV,and Amazon Ads have already trialled producing ads and tools using generative AI(see page 18)6,while at the user level,the influence of synthetic media is widely apparent.Social media platforms are flooded with synthetic art,music,text,and video,while AI is also helping produce podcasts and edit video,allowing anyone to compete with those with larger production budgets.Although synthetic media is not considered its own unique delivery form,it has already begun to shape other types of media,and synthetic data is even being trialled in some forms of media measurement(see page 40).These technical(or sometimes legal)terms,which are frequently based on definitions that can become outdated quickly,also pose barriers to understanding and engagement,making it challenging for the media to connect with its audience and effectively convey important information.Meanwhile,others believe CTV itself is a needlessly complex term,and the industry should focus more on the quality of the content and less on the buying mechanisms and just call it TV!3 There is a similar appetite for simplification elsewhere too.As linear TVs definition becomes less obvious,for example,some industry voices are talking of convergent TV,a term that would better represent the convergence of various television distribution platforms and technologies into a single,integrated viewing experience.4 Whats in a name?This report was produced using media definitions that are broadly,though not universally,shared across the sector,aligning with those referenced in both WARCs and GroupMs ad spend forecasts.Where nuances or convergence occur,we have noted them and acknowledge that some definitions remain in flux.The media ecosystem 56Whats next in 2025?Television&videoLinear TVStreaming/VODChallengeOpportunityConnected TV(CTV)Media channels at a glanceTV is now a converged media,incorporating multiple platforms where linear,connected,and streaming coexist among myriad other definitions.Fragmenting viewership continues as audiences shift to on-demand streaming platforms,making it harder for advertisers to justify large linear TV budgets in isolation.7 However,the speed of change differs from market to market which is why its essential to use tools like Cross-Platform View to understand the direction and pace of the change.8Saturation of the streaming market and budget restrictions are forcing platforms to reduce the number and cost of content commissions,limiting fresh,exclusive shows.Meanwhile,subscription fatigue is a growing issue.11The CTV market is highly fragmented with many devices and platforms,making it difficult for advertisers to track who is watching and when.CTV offers precise audience targeting,giving advertisers the ability to refine campaigns and reach specific segments.The growing number of CTV devices globally also opens up new revenue streams.Linear TV is both highly trusted and secures massive audiences during live events like sports and news.9 And new collaborations,such as Freely in the UK,bring broadcaster linear and on-demand services together into the same CTV platform to maximise prominence and enable accessibility.10Streaming services are exploring additional revenue streams through advertising formats,merchandise,gaming,and experiences linked to popular shows,tapping into fan loyalty.12 Additionally,subscription bundling and a move into sports should help to overcome churn.The media ecosystem 87ChallengeOpportunityPrint editions continue to experience a sizeable shift,with fewer advertisers willing to invest in print ad spaces alone despite high trust and effectiveness.Meanwhile,online news and magazine platforms grapple with the rise of ad-blocking,synthetic content,growing privacy concerns,and the(uneven)phase-out of third-party cookies.As new AI tools including deepfakes and chatbots become more widely available,platforms will need to find new ways to manage the dissemination of misinformation,disinformation,and toxic content.15Search algorithms are increasingly complex,and generative AI tools are changing how users search for information,making long-standing SEO strategies a lot harder.With the rise of streaming services,sophisticated home entertainment systems,and soaring production costs,fewer films are being made for theatres,and audiences are becoming more selective.This places pressure on studios to produce films that are both critically acclaimed and commercially successful a crisis of confidence that sees studios more often than not lean into safe bets,often based on established franchises.19Voice search and AI-powered search tools represent new,ever more intuitive ways for users to discover content.Theres also significant potential for search engines to dominate AI-led experiences if they adapt quickly.As Dune:Part 2 demonstrated,premium cinema experiences like IMAX,Dolby Cinema,and event screenings prove cinema still offers unrivalled shared experiences impossible to replicate at home and appetite is high post-pandemic.20 Event movies and live-streamed events in cinemas are also a growing trend.Whilst solutions are under development,attribution and economic modelling remain a technical obstacle for out of home.14Digital OOH offers dynamic,flexible ad options in high-traffic areas,remaining one of the few mass-market channels available,alongside TV set viewing.Innovative campaigns,like tailored interactive billboards,are also creating memorable experiences for audiences.Moreover,integrating OOH with other channels,such as mobile and digital radio,can create a more comprehensive and impactful marketing strategy.Print is witnessing some renewed interest as screen fatigue grows,with readers valuing its tactile nature.It also offers premium brand-building inventory for advertisers,particularly when targeting niche audiences who view print as more trustworthy.13 Beyond print,programmatic advertising continues to advance,leveraging first-party data to deliver more personalised and effective ads.With forecasts projecting 60%of time spent on social platforms in the US in 2024 to be accounted for by video16,and the growing opportunity for social media as a discovery channel signals a significant shift in search dynamics,presenting new opportunities for platform growth as brands shift strategies and investments.Incorporating in-app search ads can me