智能移动性概述、关键指标和见解.pdf

SMART MOBILITY OVERVIEW,KEY METRICS AND INSIGHTS SNEAK PEEKFebruary 14,2023TODAYS SPEAKERSJAKEWARDActing Program Managerjacob.wardhq.doe.gov US DOEAYMERICROUSSEAUDirector,Vehicle and Mobility Systems Departmentarousseauanl.govANLANNA SPURLOCKDeputy Department Head,Sustainable Energy and Environmental Systemscaspurlocklbl.govLBNLVENUGARIKAPATITeam Lead,Transportation Modeling and Metricsvenu.garikapatinrel.govNREL2SMART MOBILITY EXPANDS R&D BEYOND COMPONENT AND VEHICLE DESIGNImpact of connectivity,automation,multi-modal travel,new modes,control across wide range of metrics SINGLE COMPONENTSINGLE VEHICLESMALL NETWORKTRAFFIC FLOWENTIRE URBAN AREABetter vehiclesPowertrain,electrification,control,lightweighting,aero/tires,etc.Smarter vehiclesControl of speed and/or powertrain using:sensors&connectivity automationSmarter roadsSmarter control of the road networks and traffic flowsVTOVehicle Technologies OfficeSmarter travelersMobility as a service,changes in travel needsSMART MOBILITY R&DHISTORICAL VTO R&D3IMPROVING CONVENIENCE AND EFFICIENCY CRITICAL TO TRANSPORTATION DECARBONIZATIONLand use combined with affordable,accessible,efficient and reliable mode at the center of SMART MobilitySMART Mobility Consortium Focus4SMART MOBILITY HAS ALREADY A LONG HISTORYUnique set of system level expertise driven by stakeholdersBEYOND VEHICLESGreen marketing is a practice whereby companies seek to go above and beyond traditional marketing by promoting environmental core values.SMART 1.0Quantified CAVs potential energy savings(simulation),developed and demonstrated transportation system workflowFive Capstone ReportsCAV R&DFirst US DOE VTO CallFoundation of SMART ConsortiumIdentify capabilities,needs and gapsSMART 2.0Faster,better,more scenarios,more stakeholderFocus on actionable insights 2015202020162023START5CONSORTIUM FOCUSED ON ADDRESSING STAKEHOLDER QUESTIONS6 National Laboratories,25+R&D Partners,50+StakeholdersNATIONAL LABORATORIESR&D PARTNERSSTAKEHOLDERS6PRIMARY APPROACHES FOR VEHICLE AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IMPACTDyno XILTrack XILReal systemsSimulated systemsDevelop and deploy energy-efficient vehicle and powertrain controls enabled by connectivity and automationAgent-based transportation system simulation coupled with additional tools for land use,electric grid,energy,GHG,etc.VEHICLE FOCUSTRANSPORTATION SYSTEM FOCUS7LARGE NUMBER OF METRICS CONSIDERED SIMULTANEOUSLYMulti-fidelity end-to-end modeling workflow,provides unique insights by quantifying the impact of individual technologies and policies across the entire transportation system.LANDUSEPASSENGERMOVEMENTEVCHARGINGGOODSMOVEMENTTRAVELERBEHAVIORCONTROLAGENT BASEDTRANSPORTATIONSYSTEM MODELEMISSION/GHGMOBILITYENERGYCOSTEQUITYACCESSIBILITY8CURRENT AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEMS ARE NOT FUEL EFFICIENTBUT COULD BEReal world usage shows minor energy penaltyTODAYTOMORROWPOTENTIAL ENERGY SAVINGS30%10%9%1M+Kilometers44K+Trips16K+Hours150+Vehicles95Drivers35%ACC EngagementSignal Phase and Timing(SPaT)for next traffic signalSPaT with additional traffic signalsVehicle-to-Vehicle with intent-sharing 9LEVEL 4 AUTOMATED DRIVING MAY INCREASE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSLevel 4 automated highway driving encourages longer highway travel,so emissions increase,mostly along highways and in outlying areas.Mitigation strategies should focus on those spotsD D GHG emissions(tonnes)ATLANTA10D D Level 4 Ref 2040 vs.Base Ref 2020AUSTINCARBON PRICING CAN HELP MITIGATE LAND USE IMPACT OF LEVEL 4 AUTOMATED DRIVINGApplied increased costs for carbon emissions over time coupled with EV ownership subsidiesCarbon pricing reduces GHG from Level 4 automated driving by up to 25%when considering land use changeWell designed policies counteract Value of Travel Time impactsD D Population density per/km211ROAD PRICING COST INCREASES HIGHEST IN LOW INCOME AND EXURBAN AREAS12D D Daily IncomeDelay based congestion pricing can increase network speed up to 11%Total travel cost increases can reduce daily income by up to 7.5%Agencies should explore ways to reinvest revenue from congestion pricing to reduce travel COST burdenCHICAGO METROTRANSIT OPTIMIZATION IMPROVES RIDERSHIP UP TO 11%AT MODERATE COSTIncreased bus frequencies or new Bus Rapid Transit(BRT)improves transit user experience(less waiting&travel times)Increased frequency more beneficial to Metra and Pace suburban buses than CTANew routes and BRT more beneficial to CTAOptimized2XBaselineBRT2X+BRT0%5%10%15%20%25%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Change in Ridership%Change in Operational CostD D Chicago Transit Ridership13SUBSIDIZED RIDESHARE SERVICE INCREASES TRANSIT USE BY 12%Paid first-mile-to-last-mile(FMLM)boosts transit use from 4.5%to 5.0%,free FMLM to 5.6%Free FMLM increases use of rideshare-to-transit by 76%Potential to remove 100K auto-based commuter tripsLargely used to reach commuter rail stationsincreases catchment area up to 1.8 miles for those without autosCHICAGO METRO14WHAT IS MEP AND HOW IS IT CALCULATED?Quantify the number of opportunities that people can reach within a certain travel time threshold via different transportation modesThe opportunities measure is weighted by the time,energy,and cost-efficiency metrics of different transportation modes.EXAMPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES ACCESSIBLE BY BIKINGMobility Energy Productivity(MEP)quantifies how well connected a place is,and does so while accounting for time,cost,and energy of modes that provide mobility in that place15UNPACKING THE MEP SCORE 79511154810121643316VEHICLE OWNERSHIPHas an outsized impact on time,energy,and cost-efficient accessibilityThe spatial disparity in locations with high MEP scores vs.places of residence was stark for vehicle-ownership based cohorts compared income-based cohorts.Low-Income:Household Annual Income=Number of vehicles in household17E-BIKES IMPROVE EFFICIENT ACCESSProvide at least half the access that driving does for 9%of Denvers PopulationTaking the energy,cost,and speed tradeoffs of e-bikes and cars into account,it was found that personal e-bikes can provide access that is comparable to cars in some areas(9%of the cities population or 4%of its area)in Denver*Preliminary results c)18MEP SCORES HELP QUANTIFY AVAILABILITY OF DRIVING ALTERNATIVES IN U.S.CITIESMEP Scores Analyzed for 100 U.S.Cities Of the 10 highest-scoring cities in the ACEEE scorecards transportation chapter,7 earned at least 20%of their total MEP score through the contributions of efficient modes.The top 4 scorers for transit funding also had an exceptionally high mean MEP efficient-mode ratio of 25%.19PARTNERS/LICENSEES/COLLABORATORS 20INNOVATIVE METRICS CAN PROVIDE MEANINGFUL NEW INSIGHTSAgent-based modelingPotential INEXUSCaptures the full utility of modal options available to the individual Realized INEXUSMeasures the utility experienced by the agent for the mode they actually choseSocial INEXUSMeasures the utility experienced by and the externalities associated with the agent for the mode chosenINEXUS Suite of MetricsIndividual experienced utility-based synthesis High-resolution agent-based modeling frameworks are powerful tools for exploring alternative transportation system policy,design,and technology deployment scenarios.Gaining multi-faceted insights from these scenario outcomes requires a range of innovative ways of processing the results,including development of informative metrics.We demonstrate an example of this using a sensitivity analysis in the BEAM CORE integrated agent-based modeling framework:price of ride-hailing is varied from 0%to 800%of the baseline.This makes a flexible backup option more or less affordable and accessible.21POTENTIAL INEXUSCan highlight inequities in the baseline transportation systemA multitude of factors(residence location,mode availability,budget constraints,vehicle ownership,etc.)contribute to systematic inequities in the current transportation system.Potential INEXUS for mandatory trips for highest income travelers is 16%higher than for lowest income travelers.Distribution of Potential INEXUS values for mandatory trips in the baseline scenario across income groups22Distribution of Potential INEXUS across ridehail price scenarios by the income of travelersAFFORDABLE BACKUP MODAL OPTIONS DISPROPORTIONATELY BENEFIT LOWEST INCOME SUBPOPULATIONMoving from baseline price to no-cost ridehail results in a 44%improvement in the median Potential INEXUS for the lowest income group compared to a 13%improvement for the highest income group.23INEXUS CAN CAPTURE A RANGE OF POTENTIAL BENEFITS FROM A SYSTEM CHANGE EVEN WITHOUT BEHAVIOR CHANGE1.Freeride direct benefit:travelers that use ridehailin both the baseline and the lower ridehail price scenario receive benefits without any induced behavior change2.Backup option indirect benefit:some travelers that dont reoptimize are still better off because they have a more appealing backup option available1.2.Realized and Potential INEXUS for travelers who do not change their mode from the baselinePOTENTIAL INEXUSREALIZED INEXUS24SOCIAL INEXUS CAN REVEAL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHARE OF CARBON EMISSIONS ACROSS SUBPOPULATIONSAt lower ridehail prices,more low-income households switch to ridehail,resulting in a 44%improvement in their accessibility and experience.This improvement in accessibility comes with a trade-off lower income traveler more similar to their higher income counterparts in terms of carbon emissions contributionsImproving equity and environmental outcomes can often be difficult to achieve simultaneously,but tools like these can help understand the mechanisms underlying these tradeoffs44%improvement in Potential INEXUS13%improvement in Potential INEXUSEach higher income traveler contributes on average more to carbon emissions baseline and higher ridehail prices25UPCOMING WEBINARSOVERVIEW,KEY METRICS AND INSIGHTS SNEAK PEEKMULTIMODAL TRAVELMicro-mobilityMULTIMODAL TRAVELTransit&RidehailCONNECTED&AUTOMATED VEHICLESVehicle and powertrain ControlTraffic signal controlMARCHMAYAPRIL2023TODAYCONNECTED&AUTOMATED VEHICLESTransportation system impactInduced VMT,land use,policiesFREIGHTLast mile deliveryJULYJUNEELECTRIFICATIONEVSE deploymentGrid impactAUGUSTFEBRUARY26General questions,comments,please contact eemsee.doe.gov