中国经济图观.pdf

单击此处编辑母版标题样式中国经济图观China Economic Watch经济增长经济增长 Economic growthEconomic growth通货膨胀通货膨胀 InflationInflation货币金融货币金融 Financial dataFinancial data投资 InvestmentCPI货币政策 Macro Policy消费 ConsumptionPPI社会融资规模AFRE外贸Foreign Trade人民币贷款RMB Loans工业与服务业 Industry&ServicesM2与存款M2&RMB Deposits就业与GDP Employment and GDP利率 Interest RatesContent 目录目录This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.Click the hyperlink and jump to the specific chapterqRwPtRpQoPrRoNrPoPqMrQ8O9R8OtRqQpNpMfQnNyQlOnPzQ7NrQtOMYnNoNvPnPyQ总结总结 SummarySummaryThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.经济增长经济增长：7月投资、消费、出口增长均有所放缓。不过，餐饮收入增长加快，反映服务消费恢复动能较强。通货膨胀通货膨胀：7月CPI同比回落，但较好的服务消费带动核心CPI同比回升。货币金融货币金融：7月社融增长偏慢。为了支持经济增长，8月15日央行调降MLF利率15BP。Economic growth：In July,the growth of investment,consumption,and export alldecelerated.However,the catering income growth accelerated,indicating that therestorative growth momentum of service consumption was still strong.Inflation data：In July,CPI YoY fell,but the core CPI YoY rose due to the rapidgrowth of service consumption.Financial data：In July,the Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy(AFRE)wasweak.To support the economic growth,the Peoples Bank of China reduced theinterest rate of 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)by 15BP to 2.5%onAugust 15th.Content 目录目录This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.2.2.通货膨胀通货膨胀 Inflation data3.3.货币金融货币金融 Financial dataFinancial data1.1.经济增长经济增长 Economic growth1.11.1投资投资 Investment1.21.2消费消费 Consumption1.31.3外贸外贸 Foreign Trade1.41.4工业与服务业工业与服务业 Industry and Services1.51.5就业与就业与GDPGDP Employment and GDP1.1 1.1 投资投资 InvestmentAccumulated fixed asset investment growth YoY%Monthly fixed asset investment growth YoY%资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月固定资产投资增长放缓。其中，房地产、基建与制造业投资增长均显著放缓。In July,China fixed asset investment growth slowed down.In terms of major categories,thegrowth of investment in real estate,infrastructure,and manufacturing all decelerated.-15-10-50510152025Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23固定资产投资房地产基建制造业Fixed Asset InvestmentReal EstateInfrastructureManufacturing(two-year average growth rate in 2021)-20-15-10-50510152025Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23固定资产投资房地产基建制造业Fixed Asset InvestmentReal EstateInfrastructureManufacturing(two-year average growth rate in 2021)1.1 1.1 投资投资 Investment资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.Table:China fixed asset investment growth rate and MoM change of the growth rate(%)Fixed asset investmentReal estate investmentInfrastructure investmentManufacturing investmentAccumulated YoY growth rate from January to July3.4-8.59.45.7MoM change of accumulated YoY growth rate-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.3July YoY growth rate1.1-12.25.34.3MoM change of YoY growth rate-2.0-2.0-6.4-1.7July two-year average growth rate2.3-12.38.35.9MoM change of two-year average growth rate-2.2-2.5-3.5-2.1July four-year average growth rate2.5-3.43.34.3MoM change of four-year average growth rate-2.7-1.7-4.6-2.6Table:The growth rate of real estate indicator and MoM change of growth rate(%)Accumulated YoY%July YoY%July change rate*compared with 2019MoM change ofchange rate*Floor space of commercial buildings sold-6.5-15.4-39.8-13.7Floor space of buildings newly started-24.5-25.9-64.6-4.8Floor space of buildings under construction-6.8-21.7-Floor space of buildings completed20.532.7-Investment in real estate development-8.5-12.2-12.8-6.41.1 1.1 房地产房地产 Real estateReal estateFloor space of commercial buildings soldJuly MoM growth rate of buildings sold 资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月商品房销售面积进一步走弱，环比降幅高于过去10年的中位数水平。In July,the floor space of commercial buildings sold further weakened,with a MoM decrease higher than the median level of the past 10 years.050001000015000200002500030000JFMAMJJASOND2023202220212020201910000 sq.m-47.8%-49.1%-41.5%-31.3%-35.9%-38.0%-41.1%-29.9%-32.4%-34.0%-21.2%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%20232022202120202019201820172016201520142013July MoM growth rate of floor space of commercial buildings sold 1.1 1.1 房地产房地产 Real estateReal estateGrowth rates of Real Estate Indicators in a single month compared with the same period in 2019,%Real Estate Indicators in a single month YoY%(two-year average growth rate in 2021)资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.商品房销售的走弱带动房屋新开工与房地产投资增速（相对于2019年同期）进一步回落。The weakening sales of commercial buildings driven down the growth rates of floor space of buildings newly started and investment in real estate development compared with the same period in 2019.-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102030Feb-20Jul-20Dec-20May-21Oct-21Mar-22Aug-22Jan-23Jun-23Growth rate of floor space sold compared with 2019Growth rate of floor space newly started compared with 2019Growth rate of real estate investment compared with 2019-70-60-50-40-30-20-1001020Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23Floor space of commercial buildings sold YoY%Floor space of buildings newly started YoY%Investment in real estate development YoY%(two-year average growth rate in 2021)1.1 1.1 房地产房地产 Real estateReal estateAccumulated floor space of buildings under construction and completed YoY%Planned construction area of land sold in 100 major cities(10000 square meters)资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.1-7月房屋施工面积增速回落，而房屋竣工面积增速维持高位。7月土地成交进一步减少。From January to July,the YoY growth rate of floor space of buildings under constructiondeclined,while the growth rate of floor space of buildings completed remains relatively high.In July,the planned construction area of land sold in 100 major cities declined further.-25-20-15-10-50510152025Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23Accumulated Floor space of buildings under construction YoY%Accumulated Floor space of buildings completed YoY%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000JFMAMJJASOND2023202220212020201910000 sq.m1.1 1.1 房价房价 Housing PricesHousing Prices70 Major Cities New Housing Prices MoM%70 Major Cities New Housing Prices YoY%Second-hand Housing Prices MoM%Second-hand Housing Prices YoY%资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0Jan-19Aug-19Mar-20Oct-20May-21Dec-21Jul-22Feb-2370 CitiesTier 1Tier 2Tier 3-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0Jan-11Aug-12Mar-14Oct-15May-17 Dec-18Jul-20Feb-2270 CitiesTier 1Tier 2Tier 3-1.2-0.8-0.40.00.40.81.21.6Jan-19Aug-19Mar-20Oct-20May-21Dec-21Jul-22Feb-2370 CitiesTier 1Tier 2Tier 3-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0Jan-11Aug-12Mar-14Oct-15May-17 Dec-18Jul-20Feb-2270 CitiesTier 1Tier 2Tier 31.1 1.1 基建投资基建投资 Infrastructure investmentInfrastructure investmentInfrastructure Investment YoY%Accumulated Infrastructure Investment YoY%资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月基建投资增长放缓，可能因为极端天气不利于施工。The slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in July may be due to extreme weather conditions that are not conducive to construction.-30-25-20-15-10-505101520Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Current year cumulative Infrastructure Investment YoY%Infrastructure Investment in a single month YoY%(two-year average growth rate in 2021)-30-20-100102030Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Production and Supply of Electricity,Gas and WaterTransport,Storage and PostManagement of Water Conservancy,Environment and Public Facilities(two-year average growth rate in 2021)1.1 1.1 制造业投资制造业投资 Manufacturing investmentManufacturing investment资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月制造业投资增长放缓，主要是一些传统周期性行业投资增长放缓。Investment in manufacturing industry grew slower in July,mainly due to the slowdown in investment growth in some cyclical industries.Accumulated YoY%MoM change of accumulated YoY%Manufacturing Investment5.7-0.3 Of which:Processing of food from agricultural products7.0 0.6 Manufacture of foods2.0 0.6 Textile industry-2.3-0.3 Manufacture of chemical products13.7-0.2 Manufacture of medicine0.6-1.1 Smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metal10.2-4.0 Manufacture of metal products-1.1-1.1 Manufacture of general purpose machinery4.6 0.9 Manufacture of special purpose machinery6.4-1.3 Manufacture of automobiles19.2-0.8 Manufacture of transportation equipment-0.6-3.4 Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus39.1 0.2 Manufacture of electronic products and equipment9.8 0.4 1.1 1.1 制造业投资制造业投资 Manufacturing investmentManufacturing investmentInvestment in manufacturing industry YoY%Outstanding mid&long-term loans and total profit of manufacturing industry YoY%资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.制造业中长期贷款增速高达40.3%，而制造业利润同比-20%。The YoY growth rate of mid&long-term loan balances to the manufacturing industry was as high as+40.3%,while the total profit of the manufacturing industry grew by-20%YoY.-40-30-20-100102030Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Current year cumulative investment in manufacturing YoY%Manufacturing industry investment in a single month YoY%(two-year average growth rate in 2021)-50-40-30-20-1001020304050Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Outstanding mid&long-term Loans to manufacturing industry YoY%Current year cumulative profit of manufacturing industry YoY%1.2 1.2 消费消费 ConsumptionConsumptionTotal Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%Accumulated Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月消费增速回落。July consumption grew at a slower pace.-25-20-15-10-505101520253035Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%(two or fouryear average growth rate in 2021 and 2023,respectively)-25-20-15-10-505101520253035Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Accumulated Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%Accumulated Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY%(twoor four year average growth rate in 2021 and 2023,respectively)1.2 1.2 消费消费 ConsumptionConsumption资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinvestment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to their attention,receipt,or reading of the content of this report.7月消费增速回落，主要因为商品消费增长放缓，而服务消费增长加快。July consumption grew at a slower pace,commodity consumption growth declined while service consumption growth accelerated.Total retail sales of consumer goodsRetail sales of commoditiesIncome of catering industryAccumulated YoY growth rate from January to July7.35.920.5MoM change of accumulated YoY growth rate-0.9-0.9-0.9July YoY growth rate2.51.015.8MoM change of YoY growth rate-0.6-0.7-0.3July two-year average growth rate2.62.16.8MoM change of two-year average growth rate-0.5-0.71.2July four-year average growth rate3.13.03.8MoM change of four-year average growth rate-0.9-1.10.51.2 1.2 消费消费 ConsumptionConsumptionCommodity Retail and Catering Income YoY%Commodity Retail and Catering Income YoY%(excluding base effect)资料来源：万得 中信期货研究所 Sources:Wind,CITICSFThis report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business,and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constituteinv