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笔译 第二套
Part 1 Please translate the following passage into Chinese.
India to outpace China as energy price falls lift world economy, IMF predicts
The global economy was more likely to enjoy a reasonable recovery over the next two years, benefiting from recent falls in energy prices and exchange rate movements, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.
The twice-yearly forecast shows India is expected to outperform China in growth for the first time in 16 years.The fund has recently told countries they “could do better” to improve medium-term prospects, but the World Economic Outlook is the first since 2011 to suggest economies are putting the 2009 financial crisis behind them.
Ahead of publication, Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, told the Financial Times: “I sense the macro risks are smaller than in October — there is no reason for doom and gloom.”The fund has documented divergent trends in economic performance across the world since October, with strength in the US and UK and greater weakness in the eurozone, China and Latin America. Inflation has fallen everywhere and the outlook for many emerging economies, with the important exception of India, has deteriorated.
Despite this uneven progress in economic data, the fund said, the fall in energy prices would boost growth in oil-importing countries. It estimated that the full effect of falling oil prices would increase global output by 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent in 2016.The rise in the dollar and Chinese renminbi against the Japanese yen and the euro would help boost growth further, the IMF predicted. The appreciation of the US and Chinese currencies need not damage their growth prospects because these economies can keep interest rates lower for longer to offset any deterioration in their trade performance.
Translating this assessment into hard numbers, the IMF forecasts 3.5 per cent global growth in 2015, up on the 3.4 per cent recorded last year and improving further to 3.8 per cent in 2016.The IMF expects China’s slowdown to continue, with growth of 6.8 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent in 2016, considerably slower than India, which is expected to expand by 7.5 per cent in both years.The fund is more gloomy on medium-term growth prospects, noting that economies do not seem likely to return to growth rates that previously were considered normal. Ageing populations and weak productivity growth are set to lower rates of expansion.
Part 2 Please translate the following paragraphs into English.
实践是最好的裁判,比较最有说服力。二战结束以后尤其是最近30多年,世界各国无形中展开了一场发展道路和发展模式的竞赛。在这场竞赛中,许多国家起点比中国高、资源比中国丰富、外部环境比中国好,但经过这些年的角逐,比赛结果已初见分晓。有的国家改旗易帜,结果步入歧途、陷入困境;有的国家照搬他国制度,结果水土不服、“南橘北枳”。与之形成鲜明对比的是,我们没有走封闭僵化的老路,也没有走改旗易帜的邪路,而是走出了中国特色社会主义的新路。在这条道路上,我们用几十年的时间走完了发达国家几百年走过的发展历程,实现了从贫困到温饱再到总体小康的历史性跨越,中华民族大踏步赶上时代进步潮流、迎来伟大复兴的光明前景。以经济发展为例,1979年到2012年,我国国内生产总值年均增长9.8%,远高于同期世界经济年均2.8%的增速;经济总量跃居世界第2位,占世界经济总量的份额由不到2%提高到近12%,从昔日的物质匮乏、产品短缺变成如今的“世界工厂”,走近“世界舞台的中心”。当然,这条道路并不平坦,一路走来,我们也经历了很多曲折和坎坷,战胜了一系列风险和挑战。远的不说,就说应对国际金融危机这场大考,中国交出了出色答卷,在全球率先实现经济企稳向好,成为推动世界经济走出低谷的重要引擎,近几年中国对世界经济增长的贡献率超过20%,现在更是高达30%。对于中国的巨变,国外一些政要和学者称之为“当今时代最为重大的事件”,认为中国的成就“无可比拟”,美国前国务卿基辛格更是感慨“难以想象”、“超越想象”。
党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为总书记的党中央接过历史的接力棒,坚持以马克思主义为指导,坚定不移走中国道路,与时俱进拓展中国道路,续写中国特色社会主义这篇大文章。在追梦圆梦的道路上,党中央统筹国内国际两个大局,全面深化改革,敢于啃硬骨头、敢于涉险滩,坚决破除各方面的体制机制弊端,推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化;适应经济增长新常态,坚持稳中求进、改革创新,推动经济持续健康发展;立足国情改善和保障民生,织牢民生安全网;坚持从严管党治党,以踏石留印、抓铁有痕的劲头抓作风建设,以零容忍态度惩治腐败;坚持走和平发展道路,着力建立以合作共赢为核心的新型国际关系,赢得了人民群众的衷心拥护和国际社会的广泛认同。党和国家开创了新局面、营造了新风气、取得了新成就,在中国道路的征程上镌刻下新的历史标注。
参考译文
Part 1
国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日表示,全球经济在未来两年更有可能实现合理力度的复苏,受益于近期的能源价格下跌和汇率变动。IMF每年发布两次的预测显示,印度经济增速有望超越中国,这将是16年来头一回。IMF近期告诉各国,称他们在改善中期前景方面“可以做得更好”,但其发布的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)自2011年以来首次暗示各经济体正在摆脱2009年金融危机的阴影。
在发表这份报告前夕,IMF首席经济学家奥利维尔•布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)对英国《金融时报》表示:“我感觉宏观风险比去年10月要小——没有理由感到悲观和沮丧。”IMF记录了自去年10月以来世界各国经济表现的不同趋势:美国和英国势头较强,而欧元区、中国和拉丁美洲更加疲弱。各国的通胀普遍下降,许多新兴经济体增长前景恶化,唯独印度是一个重要的例外。
IMF称,虽然在经济数据上各国的进展有快有慢,但能源价格下跌将提振石油进口国经济增长。IMF估计,油价下跌的全部效应将使2016年全球产出增加0.5%至1%。IMF预计,美元和人民币相对于日元和欧元的升值,将有助于进一步推动经济增长。美元和人民币的升值不会影响这两个国家的经济增长前景,因为美中可以较长期地保持较低利率,以抵消贸易表现的恶化。将这些预估转换成具体数字后,IMF预计,2015年全球经济增长3.5%,高于去年录得的3.4%,并将在2016年进一步提升至3.8%。IMF预计,中国经济将继续放缓,今明两年分别增长6.8%和6.3%,显著低于印度两年均为7.5%的增长预测。
IMF对中期增长前景更为悲观,指出各经济体似乎不太可能回归先前被视为常态的增速。人口老龄化及生产率提升乏力将拉低经济增速。
Part 2
The statement that the Chinese path is both correct and viable is not a matter of personal opinion. Rather, it is the powerful answer that has been received through practice, and the profound conclusion that has been reached through historical and international comparisons. If we compare how poor and weak China was at the end of the Opium War, and how poor and backward it was when the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949, to how reinvigorated and vibrant it is today, it can be said that history has made a giant leap forward and great advances that few could have imagined, serving as a testament to the Chinese path – the path that the Chinese people have pioneered under the leadership of the Communist Party of China – in the most vivid possible way.
There is no judge better than practice, and nothing more convincing than a comparison. Since the end of World War II, and especially over the last three decades, a discreet contest between the developmental paths and models of different countries has been playing out around the world. In this contest, many countries have made a head start on China, had more abundant resources and enjoyed a more favorable external environment than China. However, after many years of tussling, the outcome of this contest is now becoming evident. Some countries opted to change their banner, only to lead themselves astray and land themselves in a tough predicament; some others opted to copy the systems of other countries, only to discover that these systems were incompatible with their local conditions, producing results very different from the ones intended. Coming in sharp contrast is China, which instead of going down the rigid, “closed-door” path of the past or embarking upon the erroneous path of changing its political system, has pioneered the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
By following this path, China has managed to complete, over a period of several decades, a process of development that took place over the course of several centuries in developed countries, realizing a historic leap from poverty to subsistence and further to moderate prosperity in overall terms. Advancing in great strides, the Chinese nation has caught up with the pace of contemporary development to come in touch with the prospects for its great rejuvenation. Looking at China’s economic development, for example, during the period from 1979 to 2012, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 9.8% per year – considerably faster than the world average of 2.8% for the same period; China’s economy grew to become the second largest in the world – raising its share of the global economy from less than 2% to almost 12%; and China went from a state of material deprivation in which commodities were extremely scarce to being the “world’s factory,” moving towards the “center of the world stage.”
Of course, this path has not been an easy one; on the way we have suffered many setbacks, endured many tests, and overcome many risks and challenges. A more recent case is that we have responded to a formidable challenge in the form of the global financial crisis. China’s response to the crisis was nothing short of exceptional: as the first country to mount a successful recovery, China became an important engine driving the global economy out of the slump. Several years ago China’s contribution to world economic growth exceeded 20%; now it is as high as 30%. Some leading politicians and scholars in the world have used “the most important event of our time” to describe the huge changes China has undergone, and have called China’s achievements “unparalleled.” Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger went even further by describing China’s achievements “hard to imagine” and “beyond imagination.”
Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC, the CPC Central Committee with Xi Jinping as General Secretary has taken over the baton of history, upheld the guiding role of Marxism, committed itself to the Chinese path, and engaged in efforts to broaden this path as the times advance, thereby opening up a new chapter in the development of Chinese socialism.
On the path towards realizing our dream, the CPC Central Committee has balanced domestic considerations with international ones, committed itself to comprehensively deepening reform, and demonstrated the courage to grapple with the toughest of problems and brave the most treacherous of waters. It has resolutely eliminated defects present in various systems and mechanisms, and advanced the modernization of our country’s governance system and governance capacity; it has adapted to a new state of economic growth, maintained a commitment to seeking steady progress while engaging in reform and innovation, and promoted sustained and sound economic growth; it has improved and guaranteed public wellbeing on the basis of China’s realities, and weaved a stronger social safety net; it has upheld the principle that the Party should govern itself according to a strict code of discipline, grappled the issue of conduct by taking vigorous action, and combated corruption with a zero-tolerance attitude; and it has persisted in pursuing the path of peaceful development, devoted major efforts to establishing a new model of international relations based on cooperation and mutual benefit, and won both the sincere support of the people and the widespread recognition of the international community. Through these efforts, the Party and state have opened up new horizons, created a new social atmosphere, and made new achievements, thereby laying down a new historical milestone on the Chinese path.
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