2022年投资学题库.doc

Chapter 11
The Efficient Market Hypothesis

Multiple Choice Questions
 1. If you believe in the ________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all relevant information including historical stock prices and current public information about the firm, but not information that is available only to insiders. 
A. Semistrong
2.  When Maurice Kendall examined the patterns of stock returns in 1953 he concluded that the stock market was __________. Now, these random price movements are believed to be _________. 
A. inefficient; the effect of a well-functioning market
3.  The stock market follows a __________. 
B. Submartingale
4.  A hybrid strategy is one where the investor 
D. maintains a passive core and augments the position with an actively managed portfolio.
5.  The difference between a random walk and a submartingale is the expected price change in a random walk is ______ and the expected price change for a submartingale is ______. 
D. zero; positive
6. 6. The difference between a random walk and a submartingale is the expected price change in a random walk is ______ and the expected price change for a submartingale is ______. 
D. zero; positive
 7. Proponents of the EMH typically advocate 
B. investing in an index fund.
C. a passive investment strategy.
E. B and C
8.  Proponents of the EMH typically advocate 
C. a passive investment strategy.
9.  If you believe in the _______ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all information that can be derived by examining market trading data such as the history of past stock prices, trading volume or short interest. 
C. Weak
10.  If you believe in the _________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all available information, including information that is available only to insiders. 
B. strong
 11. If you believe in the reversal effect, you should 
C. buy stocks this period that performed poorly last period.
12. __________ focus more on past price movements of a firm's stock than on the underlying determinants of future profitability. 
D. Technical analysts
13. _________ above which it is difficult for the market to rise. 
B. Resistance level is a value
14. _________ below which it is difficult for the market to fall. 
C. Support level is a value 
15. ___________ the return on a stock beyond what would be predicted from market movements alone. 
A. An excess economic return is
C. An abnormal return is
E. A and C
16. The debate over whether markets are efficient will probably never be resolved because of ________. 
A. the lucky event issue.
B. the magnitude issue.
C. the selection bias issue.
D. all of the above.
17. A common strategy for passive management is ____________. 
A. creating an index fund
 18. Arbel (1985) found that 
A. the January effect was highest for neglected firms.
19. Researchers have found that most of the small firm effect occurs 

D. in January.
20. Basu (1977, 1983) found that firms with low P/E ratios 
A. earned higher average returns than firms with high P/E ratios.
21. Jaffe (1974) found that stock prices _________ after insiders intensively bought shares. 
C. increased
22. Banz (1981) found that, on average, the risk-adjusted returns of small firms 
A. were higher than the risk-adjusted returns of large firms.
23. Proponents of the EMH think technical analysts 
E. are wasting their time.
24. Studies of positive earnings surprises have shown that there is 
A. a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced.
B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement.
D. both A and B are true.

25. Studies of negative earnings surprises have shown that there is 
A. a negative abnormal return on the day negative earnings surprises are announced.
B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise announcement.
D. both A and B are true.
26. Studies of stock price reactions to news are called 
B. event studies.
27. On November 22, the stock price of Walmart was $39.50 and the retailer stock index was 600.30. On November 25, the stock price of Walmart was $40.25 and the retailer stock index was 605.20. Consider the ratio of Walmart to the retailer index on November 22 and November 25. Walmart is _______ the retail industry and technical analysts who follow relative strength would advise _______ the stock. 
A. outperforming, buying
28. Work by Amihud and Mendelson (1986,1991) 
A. argues that investors will demand a rate of return premium to invest in less liquid stocks.
B. may help explain the small firm effect.
C. may be related to the neglected firm effect.
E. A, B, and C.
29. Fama and French (1992) found that the stocks of firms within the highest decile of market/book ratios had average monthly returns of _______ while the stocks of firms within the lowest decile of market/book ratios had average monthly returns of ________. 
C. less than 1%, greater than 1%
30. A market decline of 23% on a day when there is no significant macroeconomic event ______ consistent with the EMH because ________. 
D. would not be, it was not a clear response to macroeconomic news.
31. In an efficient market, __________. 
A. security prices react quickly to new information
B. security prices are seldom far above or below their justified levels
C. security analysts will not enable investors to realize superior returns consistently
E. A, B, and C
32. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that 
B. future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices.
C. technicians cannot expect to outperform the market.
E. B and C
33.  A support level is the price range at which a technical analyst would expect the 
C. demand for a stock to increase substantially.
34.  A finding that _________ would provide evidence against the semistrong form of the efficient market theory. 
A. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns
C. one can consistently outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach exemplified by the reversals phenomenon
E. A and C
35. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis contradicts 
D. technical analysis, but is silent on the possibility of successful fundamental analysis. 36. Two basic assumptions of technical analysis are that security prices adjust 
C. gradually to new information and market prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand.

37. Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) 
A. are used in event studies.
B. are better measures of security returns due to firm-specific events than are abnormal returns (AR).
D. A and B.
38. Studies of mutual fund performance 
A. indicate that one should not randomly select a mutual fund.
B. indicate that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
D. A and B.
 39. The likelihood of an investment newsletter's successfully predicting the direction of the market for three consecutive years by chance should be 
C. between 10% and 25%.
40. In an efficient market the correlation coefficient between stock returns for two non-overlapping time periods should be 
C. zero.
41. The weather report says that a devastating and unexpected freeze is expected to hit Florida tonight, during the peak of the citrus harvest. In an efficient market one would expect the price of Florida Orange's stock to 
A. drop immediately.
42. Matthews Corporation has a beta of 1.2. The annualized market return yesterday was 13%, and the risk-free rate is currently 5%. You observe that Matthews had an annualized return yesterday of 17%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that 
B. good news about Matthews was announced yesterday.
43. Nicholas Manufacturing just announced yesterday that its 4th quarter earnings will be 10% higher than last year's 4th quarter. You observe that Nicholas had an abnormal return of -1.2% yesterday. This suggests that 
C. investors expected the earnings increase to be larger than what was actually announced.
44. When Maurice Kendall first examined stock price patterns in 1953, he found that 
B. there were no predictable patterns in stock prices.
45. If stock prices follow a random walk 
D. price changes are random.
46. The main difference between the three forms of market efficiency is that 
D. the definition of information differs.
47. Chartists practice 
A. technical analysis.
48. Which of the following are used by fundamental analysts to determine proper stock prices?
I) trendlines
II) earnings
III) dividend prospects
IV) expectations of future interest rates
V) resistance levels 
C. II, III, and IV
 49. According to proponents of the efficient market hypothesis, the best strategy for a small investor with a portfolio worth $40,000 is probably to 
E. invest in mutual funds.
50. Which of the following are investment superstars who have consistently shown superior performance?
I) Warren Buffet
II) Phoebe Buffet
III) Peter Lynch
IV) Merrill Lynch
V) Jimmy Buffet 
C. I and III
51. Google has a beta of 1.0. The annualized market return yesterday was 11%, and the risk-free rate is currently 5%. You observe that Google had an annualized return yesterday of 14%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that 
B. good news about Google was announced yesterday.
52. Music Doctors has a beta of 2.25. The annualized market return yesterday was 12%, and the risk-free rate is currently 4%. You observe that Music Doctors had an annualized return yesterday of 15%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that 
A. bad news about Music Doctors was announced yesterday.
53. QQAG has a beta of 1.7. The annualized market return yesterday was 13%, and the risk-free rate is currently 3%. You observe that QQAG had an annualized return yesterday of 20%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that 
C. no significant news about QQAG was announced yesterday.
54. QQAG just announced yesterday that its 4th quarter earnings will be 35% higher than last year's 4th quarter. You observe that QQAG had an abnormal return of -1.7% yesterday. This suggests that 
C. investors expected the earnings increase to be larger than what was actually announced.
55. LJP Corporation just announced yesterday that it would undertake an international joint venture. You observe that LJP had an abnormal return of 3% yesterday. This suggests that 
D. investors view the international joint venture as good news.
 56. Music Doctors just announced yesterday that its 1st quarter sales were 35% higher than last year's 1st quarter. You observe that Music Doctors had an abnormal return of -2% yesterday. This suggests that 
C. investors expected the sales increase to be larger than what was actually announced.
57. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) just announced yesterday that they would approve a new cancer-fighting drug from King. You observe that King had an abnormal return of 0% yesterday. This suggests that 
D. the approval was already anticipated by the market

58. Your professor finds a stock-trading rule that generates excess risk-adjusted returns. Instead of publishing the results, she keeps the trading rule to herself. This is most closely associated with ________. 
B. selection bias
59. At freshman orientation, 1,500 students are asked to flip a coin 20 times. One student is crowned the winner (tossed 20 heads). This is most closely associated with ________. 
D. the lucky event issue
 60. Sehun (1986) finds that the practice of monitoring insider trade disclosures, and trading on that information, would be ________. 
E. not sufficiently profitable to cover trading costs
61. If you believe in the reversal effect, you should 
C. sell stocks this period that performed well last period.
62. Patell and Woflson (1984) report that most of the stock price response to corporate dividend or earnings announcements occurs within ____________ of the announcement. 
C. 2 hours

Short Answer Questions

63. Discuss the various forms of market efficiency. Include in your discussion the information sets involved in each form and the relationships across information sets and across forms of market efficiency. Also discuss the implications for the various forms of market efficiency for the various types of securities' analysts. 
The weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) states that stock prices immediately reflect market data. Market data refers to stock prices and trading volume. Technicians attempt to predict future stock prices based on historic stock price movements. Thus, if the weak form of the EMH holds, the work of the technician is of no value.
The semistrong form of the EMH states that stock prices include all public information. This public information includes market data and all other publicly available information, such as financial statements, and all information reported in the press relevant to the firm. Thus, market information is a subset of all public information. As a result, if the semistrong form of the EMH holds, the weak form must hold also. If the semistrong form holds, then the fundamentalist, who attempts to identify undervalued securities by analyzing public information, is unlikely to do so consistently over time. In fact, the work of the fundamentalist may make the markets even more efficient!
The strong form of the EMH states that all information (public and private) is immediately reflected in stock prices. Public information is a subset of all information, thus if the strong form of the EMH holds, the semistrong form must hold also. The strong form of EMH states that even with inside (legal or illegal) information, one cannot expect to outperform the market consistently over time.
Studies have shown the weak form to hold, when transactions costs are considered. Studies have shown the semistrong form to hold in general, although some anomalies have been observed. Studies have shown that some insiders (specialists, major shareholders, major corporate officers) do outperform the market.
Feedback: The purpose of this question is to assure that the student understands the interrelationships across different forms of the EMH, across the information sets, and the implications of each form for different types of analysts.
64. What is an event study? It is a test of what form of market efficiency? Discuss the process of conducting an event study, including the best variable(s) to observe as tests of market efficiency. 
A event study is an empirical test which allows the researcher to assess the impact of a particular event on a firm's stock price. To do so, one often uses the index model and estimates et, the residual term which measures the firm-specific component of the stock's return. This variable is the difference be