国际经济学克鲁格曼第八版第十六章英文.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,Chapter 16Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run,This chapter builds on the short run and long models of exchange rates to explain how output is related to exchange rates in the short run.,Introduce,Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy,Output Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run:the DD Schedule,Asset Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run:the AA Schedule,Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy:DD,AA Schedule,Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy,Introduce,Inflation Bias and Other Problems,Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy,Macroeconomic Policy and the Current Account,Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and the Current Account Dynamics,The J Curve,1.Determinants of,Aggregate Demand,in an Open Economy,Aggregate Demand:,In short run,aggregate demand is the aggregate amount of goods and services demanded by households and firms throughout the world.,countrys overall short-run output level depends on the aggregate demand for its products,D=C+I+G+CA,(in chapter 12),C(consumption expenditure),I (investment expenditure),G(government purchases),CA(current account):net export demand=EX-IM,I and G is given,1.1 Determinants of Consumption Demand,consume as depending on disposable income,Yd(that is,national income less taxes,Y,T).,C=C(Yd),consumption demand and disposable income are positively(,disposable income,consumption demand,),consumption demand generally rises by less because part of the income increase is saved.,1.2 Determinants of,Current Account,CA is determined by two main factors:,real exchange rate:(q=,EP*/P in chapter 13,),affect the current account by reflecting changes in the prices of domestic goods and services relative to foreign.,q=EP*/P,q(real exchange rate)is domestic currency real exchange rate against foreign currency,E(the nominal exchange rate)is the price of foreign currency in terms of domestic,P*is the foreign price level,P is the home price level,domestic disposable income(Yd):,affect the current account through its effect on total spending by domestic consumers.,CA=CA(q,Yd)=CA(EP*/P,Yd),1.3 How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account,CA EX,IM,effects on EX,Real Exchange Rate,s rise foreign products more expensive,Foreign demanding more of our exports,EP*/P EX CA,EP*/P EX CA,effects on IM,IM denotes the value of imports measured in terms of domestic outputand not the volume of foreign products,volume effect:shifts on export and import quantities,value effect:changes the domestic output worth of a given volume of foreign imports.,assume:volume effect value effect,EP*/P,home currency,IM ,CA,EP*/P,home currency,IM ,CA,1.4 How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account,a rise in Yd causes domestic consumers to increase their spending on all goods(including,imports from abroad),Yd,IM,EX ,CA,2.The Equation of Aggregate Demand,D,=C+I+G+CA,C=C(Yd)=C(Y-T),CA=CA(EP*/P,Yd)=CA(EP*/P,Y,T),D=C,(,Y,T,)+,I,+,G,+,CA,(,EP,*/,P,Y,T,),more simply,D,=,D,EP,*/,P,Y,T,I,G,),Aggregate demand is a function of real exchange rate(EP*/P),disposable income(Y,T)investment demand(I)government spending(G).,2.1 The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand,EP*/P rise,domestic goods cheaper,import falls,export rises,CA rises,aggregate demand D goes up.,EP*/P,EX,IM ,CA,D,A real depreciation of the home currency raises aggregate demand for home output,a real appreciation lowers,2.2 Real Income and Aggregate Demand,Yd rise,C rise,IM rise,CA falls,so D may rise,may falls,Since increase income have more effect on consumption than import spending(C CA),So D rise when Yd rise,figure 16-1 Aggregate Demand as a Function of Output,2.3 How Output Is Determined In the Short Run,output market is in equilibrium when real output,Y,equals the aggregate demand for domestic output,Y=D=D(EP*/P,Y,T,I,G),需求产出,厂商为了满足,多余需求会加,大生产。,产出增加，,从2向1移动,Output demand,企业减少产出，,所以向1移动,4Output Market Equilibrium:The DD Schedule,Output,the Exchange Rate,and Output Market Equilibrium,when output market equilibrium,exchange rate and output,figure 16-3 illustrates:with fixed P*and P,domestic currency against foreign currency(a rise in E from E1 to E2),oreign goods and services more expensive and CA,and aggregate demand schedule upward from D1 to D2,because D upward,Output expands from Y1 to Y2 as firms find themselves faced with excess demand.,analyze the effects of a change in P*or P on output,rise in the real exchange rate EP*/P(whether due to a rise in E,a rise in P*,or a fall in P)will cause an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of output,all else equal.,fall in EP*/P,will cause a downward shift in aggregate demand function and output to contract,all else equal.,4.1 Deriving the DD Schedule,DD schedule shows,all combinations of output and the exchange rate when output market is in short-run equilibrium(aggregate demand=aggregate output),Figure left shows how to derive the DD schedule,which relates E and Y when P and P*are fixed,Point 1 on the DD gives the output level Y1 at which aggregate demand equals aggregate supply when the exchange rate is E 1.,A depreciation of the currency to E2 leads to the higher output level Y2,according to the figures upper part,and this information allows us to locate point 2 on DD.,Factors that Shift the DD Schedule,1.G,D,，,DD Schedule to shift to the right,figure 16-5 showes:,a rise in government purchases,from G1 to,G2,given a fixed exchange rate of,E,E,leads to an equilibrium output level,Y,1,to Y2,point 1 is one point on,DD,An increase in,G,causes the aggregate demand to shift upward to a new point 2 on DD,summary：,a increase in G causes DD to shift to the right.Similarly,a decrease in G causes DD to shift to the left,Factors That Shift the DD Schedule,2.,A change in T,TD，DD Schedule to shift to the left,3.,A change in,I,I,D，DD Schedule to shift to the right,4.,A change in,P,P,D，DD Schedule to shift to the left,5.,A change in,P*,P*,D，DD Schedule to shift to the right,6.,A change in,CC,D，DD Schedule to shift to the right,7.,A demand shift between foreign and domestic goods,Demand shift from form foreign to domestic，D，DD,schedule to shift to the right,5.Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run:The AA Schedule,DD schedule shows all exchange rate and output levels at which the output market is in short-run equilibrium,equilibrium in the economy as a whole requires equilibrium in the asset markets as well as in the output market,The schedule of exchange rate and output combinations that are consistent with equilibrium in the domestic money market and the foreign exchange market is called the AA schedule.,5.1 Output,the Exchange Rate,and Asset Market Equilibrium,foreign exchange market in equilibrium,In Chapter 13:the interest parity condition,R=R*+(Ee-E)/E,R is the interest rate on domestic currency deposits and R*is the interest rate on foreign currency deposits,domestic money market in equilibrium,In Chapter 14:the domestic interest rate satisfying the interest parity condition must also equate the real domestic money supply(Ms/P)to aggregate real money demand,Ms/P=L(R,Y),when the interest rate falls aggregate real money demand L(R,Y)rises,A rise in real outputY,increases real money demand by raising the volume of monetary transactions people must carry out,a fall in real output reduces real money demand by reducing transactions needs,figure 16-6 showes:,lower part of the figure,Y,1,and,Ms/P,R1,clears the home money market(point1),E1,clears the foreign exchange market(point 1).,A rise in output from Y,1,to Y2 raises money demand schedule from L(R,Y,1)to,L(R,Y2),rais,e,the equilibrium domestic interest rate to R2(point 2).,Ee and,R*fixed,the domestic,currency appreciate from El to E2 to bring the foreign,exchange market back into equilibrium at point 2.,summary:,For asset markets to remain in equilibrium,a rise in domestic output,must be accompanied by an appreciation of the domestic currency,Y,Ms/P不变，,R,，Ee，P*不变，E，,domestic currency,all else equal,and,a fall in domestic output,must be accompanied by a depreciation.,Y,Ms/P不变，,R,，Ee，P*不变，E，,domestic currency,5.2 Deriving the AA Schedule,Figure 16-7 shows the AA schedule.,AA schedule relates exchange rates and output levels that keep the money and foreign exchange markets in equilibriuma,rise in Y1 to Y2 will produce an appreciation of the domestic currency,that is,a fall in the exchange rate from E1to E2.,The AA schedule therefore has a negative slope,as shown.,5.3 Factors that Shift the AA Schedule,1.A change in Ms.,fixed output,Ms domestic currencyE AA to shift upward.Similarly,a fall in Ms causes AA to shift downward.,2.A change in P.,P real money supplyR E ,The effect of a rise in P is therefore a downward shift of AA.A fall in P results in an upward shift of AA.,3.A change in Ee.,Ee E domestic currency,AA shifts upward when a rise in the expected future exchange rate occurs.It shifts downward when the expected future exchange rate falls.,2025/4/5 周六,23,5.3 Factors that Shift the AA Schedule,4.A change in R*.,R*shifts the downward-sloping schedule at the top of Figure 16-6 to the right.domestic currency must depreciate E,A rise in R*therefore has the same effect on AA as a rise in Ee:It causes an upward shift.,A fall in R*results in a downward shift of AA.,5.A change in real money demand.,A reduction in money demand implies an inward shift of the aggregate real money demand function L(R,Y)for any fixed level of Y,and it thus results in a lower interest rate and a rise in E.,A reduction in money demand therefore has the same effect as an increase in the money supply,in that it shifts AA upward.,The opposite disturbance of an increase in money demand would shift AA downward.,Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy:putting the DD and AA Schedules Together,A short-run equilibrium for the economy as a whole must lie on both schedules bring about equilibrium simultaneously in the output and asset markets,Figure 16-8 combines the DD and AA schedules to locate short-run equilibrium.,The intersection of DD and AA at point 1 is the only combination of exchange rate and output consistent with both the equality of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and asset market equilibrium.,Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy:putting the DD and AA Schedules Together,0,E,Y,1,DD,1,E,1,E,3,2,AA,E,2,3,在3这个点时，产出市场上有过度的需求，所以厂商会增加产出来满足过度的需求，所以会从点3到点1，此时资本市场和产出市场同时达到了均衡，但是产出市场需要一定的时间，不会像资本市场的反应如此迅速。,在2点时，产出市场和资本市场都处于不平衡中，此时的汇率过高，人们有下降的预期，会迅速使2下降到3点，在资本市场处于均衡。,6.Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy,we can study how shifts in government macroeconomic policies affect output and the exchange rate,Two types of government policy:,monetary policy:,works through changes in the money supply,fiscal policy:,works through changes in government spending or taxes,In this section we examine temporary policy shiftsEe,or price level,P*,and that the domestic price level,P,is fixed in the short run.,6.1 Monetary Policy,An increased money supply shifts AA1 upward to AA2,not affect the position of DD.,The upward shift of the asset market equilibrium schedule moves the economy from point 1,with exchange rate E1 and output Y1 to point 2,with exchange rate E2 and output Y2.,An increase in the money supply causes a depreciation of the domesticcurrency,an expansion of output,and therefore an increase in employment.,6.2 fiscal policy,A temporary fiscal expansion shifts the DD schedule to the right but does not move AA.,Initially the economy is at,point 1,with E1 and Y1,fiscal expansion moves the,economy to point 2,causing,the currency to appreciate,to E2 and output to expand,to Y2.,6.4 Policies to Maintain Full Employment,figure 16-12,a shift is a decrease in aggregate demand for domestic DD1 to DD2,point 2,the currency has depreciated to E2 and output,at Y2,restore full employment,A temporary money supply increase shifts to AA2 and places the economy at point 3,restores full employment but causes the home currency to depreciate even further,暂时的扩张财政政策可以使DD1重新会到DD2,需求的突然的减少会使DD1左移到DD2，2点建立新的平衡点，E2，Y2,短暂的货币政策可以使AA1上移到AA2，重新实现充分就业,a temporary increase in the demand for money,downward shift of AA1 to AA2，from point 1 to point 2.,A temporary money supply increase shifts to AA1 and moves back to point 1,Temporary fiscal expansion shifts DD1 to DD2 and restores full employment at,point 3,Increase in,money,demand,raises interest,rates and,appreciates,the domestic,currency,Temporary fiscal policy could increase,aggregate demand and output,Temporary monetary,policy could,increase money,supply to match,money demand,6.5 inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation,1.Sticky nominal prices not only give governments the power to raise output when it is abnormally low,but also may tempt them to create a politically useful economic boom,2.In practice it is sometimes hard to be sure whether a disturbance to the economy originates in the output or asset markets.,3.Real-world policy choices are frequently determined by bureaucratic necessities rather than by detailed consideration of whether shocks to the economy are real(that is,they originate in the output market)or monetary.,4.Another problem with fiscal policy is its impact on the government budget.,5.Policies that appear to act swiftly in our simple model operate in reality with lags of varying length.,Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy,1.Monetary Policy,2.Fascal Policy,Monetary Policy,Exchang rate E,Y,f,E,2,AA,2,DD,AA,1,E,1,Y,1,1,2,3,Output Y,Short-run Effects of A Permanent Monetary Policy,Set,P,P and R unchangedPermanent increase when the MS,the AA curve to the right.,new equilibrium point at 2,the exchange rate and output both increased,and more than a temporary increase in currency in which the level of 3.,Conclusion:,The increase in the permanent money supply,short-term increase output,expand employment.,E,Y,f,E1,AA,2,DD1,AA,1,E2,Y,2,1,2,3,DD,2,AA,3,E3,Y,The long term,when the output above full employment level of Y1,the rise of prices P,DD curve to the left,the AA curve to the left,until you pay the full employment level of Y1,point 3.,Conclusion:The increase in the permanent money supply,long-term prices,exchange rates rise,while output has no effect.,long-run sdjustment to A Permanent Monetary Policy,A PERMANENT FISCAL EXPANSION,If the economy starts at long-run equilibrium,a permanent change in fiscal policy has no net effect on output.Instead,it causes an immediate and permanent exchange rate jump that affects exactly the fiscal policy,s direct effect on aggregate demand,Effect of a permanent,fiscal,expansion,E,Y,Y,f,AA1,DD,1,DD,2,1,3,2,E,2,E,1,AA2,Permanent reduction of the permanent increase of G or T,will result in the DD curve right to a DD2,currency appreciation,an increase in output.,Meanwhile,with the currency appreciation,the expected exchange rate decline,the AA curve left to move of AA2 to reach a new equilibrium point,The exchange rate dropped,the currency appreciation,while the output unchanged.,Conclusion:under