改变中国的人.doc

导读】 习近平即将执掌中国政治，未来危机重重，但改革还需继续。Xi Jinping习近平The man who must change China改变中国，责无旁贷Xi Jinping will soon be named as Chinas next president. He must be ready to break with the past习近平在不久的未来将被提名为中国的下一届国家主席。他必须做好准备，冲破历史的囹圄。JUST after the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which starts in Beijing on November 8th, a short line of dark-suited men, and perhaps one woman, will step onto a red carpet in a room in the Great Hall of the People and meet the worlds press. At their head will be Xi Jinping, the newly anointed party chief, who in March will also take over as president of China. Behind him will file the new members of the Politburo Standing Committee, Chinas supreme body. The smiles will be wooden, the backs ramrod straight. Yet the stage-management could hardly be more different from the tempestuous uncertainties of actually governing.中国共产党第十八届全国代表大会即将于11月8日在北京召开。在会议之后，几位身着深色西装的男士，并且可能还有一名女士，将踏上人民大会堂的红地毯会见世界各国的媒体。这几人中领衔的将会是最新被提名的党首习近平，并且他将于明年三月接任中华人民共和国国家主席。他身后的几位将成为中国最高政治机关中国共产党中央政治局常务委员会的新成员。他们的笑容会有些僵硬，腰板挺得笔直大会无法改变实际政治操作上变化无常的不确定性因素。As ruler of the worlds new economic powerhouse, Mr Xi will follow his recent predecessors in trying to combine economic growth with political stability. Yet this task is proving increasingly difficult. A slowing economy, corruption and myriad social problems are causing growing frustration among Chinas people and worry among its officials.作为世界新兴经济体的掌舵人，习近平将追随近几年中国国家领导人的脚步，以实现经济增长及政治稳定的双赢。但这项任务已显得越来越困难：缓慢的经济增速，腐败及错综复杂的社会问题犹如令人沮丧的病毒般在民众间扩散，而这点恰好让中国的官员们倍感头疼。In coping with these tensions, Mr Xi can continue to clamp down on discontent, or he can start to loosen the partys control. Chinas future will be determined by the answer to this question: does Mr Xi have the courage and vision to see that assuring his countrys prosperity and stability in the future requires him to break with the past?面对如何处理这一系列的矛盾时，习近平完全可以继续压制民众的不满情绪，或者他可以另辟蹊径，放松党对国家的控制。习近平拥有勇气与眼界意识到确保中国未来的繁荣与稳定需要他冲破前人所设的囹圄吗？这个问题的答案将决定了中国未来何去何从。Whos Xi?习近平为何人？To the rich world, labouring under debt and political dysfunction, Chinese self-doubt might seem incongruous. Deng Xiaopings relaunch of economic reforms in 1992 has resulted in two decades of extraordinary growth. In the past ten years under the current leader, Hu Jintao, the economy has quadrupled in size in dollar terms. A new (though rudimentary) social safety net provides 95% of all Chinese with some kind of health coverage, up from just 15% in 2000. Across the world, China is seen as second in status and influence only to America.对于深陷债务及政治机能障碍的富裕国家，中国的自我怀疑似乎是不合时宜的。由邓小平在1992年重启的经济体制改革促使中国在近20年实现飞跃式发展。过去的10年里，在现任国家领导人胡锦涛的领导下中国的经济实力，以美元计算，实现了翻两番的目标。虽然只处于起步阶段，但一项新的社会保障系统为中国全体公民中的95%提供了医疗保险。与此形成对比的是，2000年仅有80%的中国公民享有这一权利。纵观世界，中国被视为拥有仅次于美国的世界地位和影响力。Until recently, the Chinese were getting richer so fast that most of them had better things to worry about than how they were governed. But today China faces a set of threats that an official journal describes as “interlocked like dogs teeth” (see article). The poor chafe at inequality, corruption, environmental ruin and land-grabs by officials. The middle class fret about contaminated food and many protect their savings by sending money abroad and signing up for foreign passports (see article). The rich and powerful fight over the economys vast wealth. Scholars at a recent government conference summed it up well: China is “unstable at the grass roots, dejected at the middle strata and out of control at the top”.一直到近几年，致富路上的春风得意马蹄急让大多数的中国人不去担心政府是如何履行职能的。但今天中国面对的是一系列的威胁，这些威胁被一官方刊物称为“犬牙交错”。穷人对不公平，腐败，环境污染及官 员侵占土地愤愤不平。中产阶级为食品安全担忧，并且他们中的很多人不辞劳苦，办理外国护照，为保护自己的积蓄将存款存入国外的银行。权贵为争夺经济巨额财富大打出手。在最近的一次政府会议上，一位学者这么总结道：中国正处于草根阶级动荡不安，中产阶级心灰意冷而精英阶层已然失控的局面。Once, the party could bottle up dissent. But ordinary people today protest in public. They write books on previously taboo subjects (see article) and comment on everything in real time through Chinas vibrant new social media. Complaints that would once have remained local are now debated nationwide. If Chinas leaders mishandle the discontent, one senior economist warned in a secret report, it could cause “a chain reaction that results in social turmoil or violent revolution”.曾经，我们的党是能够抑制分歧和争端的。但如今的平民百姓也加入和公开抗议的队伍中来。他们著书谈论曾经被禁忌的话题，并且通过中国蓬勃发展的新社会媒体表达自己对现实生活的看法。不满曾经能够被限制在一定区域，而如今怨声载道。一位资深的经济学家在一份秘密报告中曾警告称，如果中国的领导人不能妥善处理这些不满，这将会成为导致社会动荡和暴力革命的链式反应。But, you dont need to think that China is on the brink of revolution to believe that it must use the next decade to change. The departing prime minister, Wen Jiabao, has more than once called Chinas development “unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable”. Last week Qiushi , the partys main theoretical journal, called on the government to “press ahead with restructuring of the political system”.但中国在未来十年的改革不必被处于大巨变边缘的思想所束缚。将要卸任离职的中国国务院总理温家宝反复提到中国的发展是“不平衡，不协调和不能可持续发展的”。上周，我们的党的主要理论期刊，求是号召政府“推进政治体制改革”。Mr Xi portrays himself as a man of the people and the party still says it represents the masses, but it is not the meritocracy that some Western observers claim (see article). Those without connections, are often stuck at the bottom of the pile. Having long since lost ideological legitimacy, and with slower growth sapping its economic legitimacy, the party needs a new claim on the loyalty of Chinas citizens.习近平表现得体察民情并且我们的党坚称党始终代表最广大人民的利益这并不是西方观察者们宣称的精英领导体制。在中国，缺乏社会关系的人多数情况下被困于社会最底层。Take a deep breath深呼吸，换种思路Mr Xi could start by giving a little more power to Chinas people. Rural land, now collectively owned, should be privatised and given to the peasants; the judicial system should offer people an answer to their grievances; the household-registration, or hukou, system should be phased out to allow families of rural migrants access to properly funded health care and education in cities. At the same time, he should start to loosen the partys grip. Chinas cosseted state-owned banks should be exposed to the rigours of competition; financial markets should respond to economic signals, not official controls; a free press would be a vital ally in the battle against corruption.习近平可以从放权于人民开始。集体所有的的乡村偏远土地应进行私有化，并且交还与人民；司法系统应多正面回应百姓的诉求；户籍制度（或称“户口”）应逐步退出历史舞台从而使更多偏远地区的家庭能享受到医疗保障制度和在城市获得更好教育的福利。同时，习近平应该开放党的控制。享受特殊照顾的国有银行应融入市场的竞争考验；金融市场应该对经济数据有积极回应，而不仅仅依靠政府的控制；独立的新闻媒体应成为对抗贪污腐败的最有利联盟。Such a path would be too much for those on the Chinese “left”, who look scornfully at the West and insist on the Communist Partys claimits duty, evento keep the monopoly of power. Even many on the liberal “right”, who call for change, would contemplate nothing more radical than Singapore-style one-party dominance. But Mr Xi should go much further. To restore his citizens faith in government, he also needs to venture deep into political reform.这条路对于中国的“左”派难免强人所难。“左”对于西方世界一直采取轻蔑的态度，并且坚守共产党的主张，甚至是职责保持一党专政。即便很多号召改革的自由“右”派考虑最激进的也只是新加坡模式的一党专政。但习近平应该走得更远。为了重聚民心他需要大胆深入的政治体制改革。That might sound implausible, but in the 1980s no less a man than Deng spoke of China having a directly elected central leadership after 2050and he cannot have imagined the transformation that his country would go on to enjoy. Zhu Rongji, Mr Wens predecessor, said that competitive elections should be extended to higher levels, “the sooner the better”. Although the party has since made political change harder by restricting the growth of civil society, those who think it is impossible could look to Taiwan, which went through something similar, albeit under the anti-Communist Kuomintang.这听起来难以置信，但在上世纪80年代不只邓公一人提出2050年后中国中央领导人直选的设想。但他不曾想到中国之后的变革去向何处。温家宝的前任朱镕基总理提到竞选应延伸到更高的级别，“办得越早，效果越好”。虽然我们的党通过限制社会民主进程使政治改革更为困难，但改革仍有可能。以台湾为例，虽然当时仍在反共的国民党统治下，台湾依旧通过了类似的改革。Ultimately, this newspaper hopes, political reform would make the party answerable to the courts and, as the purest expression of this, free political prisoners. It would scrap party-membership requirements for official positions and abolish party committees in ministries. It would curb the power of the propaganda department to impose censorship and scrap the central military commission, which commits the Peoples Liberation Army to defend the party, not just the country.最后，经济学人希望， 政治体制改革能使中共对法院负责，或者简单地说，释放政治犯；政治体制改革使人民担任政府机关公职不再以中共党员身份作为前提，并且在各部门废除党委会；政治体制改革也限制宣传部门的权力以减轻省察力度，同时，撤销中央军事委员会使得军队保护的不仅仅是政党本身，而是人民。No doubt Mr Xi would balk at that. Even so, a great man would be bold. Independent candidates should be encouraged to stand for peoples congresses, the local parliaments that operate at all levels of government, and they should have the freedom to let voters know what they think. A timetable should also be set for directly electing government leaders, starting with townships in the countryside and districts in the cities, perhaps allowing five years for those experiments to settle in, before taking direct elections up to the county level in rural areas, then prefectures and later provinces, leading all the way to competitive elections for national leaders.毫无疑问的是，习近平会回避这种做法。即便如此，一个伟人有他独特的智慧。更多独立的候选人应担任各级人民代表大会代表，并且拥有表达选民诉求的自由。同时，直选政府领导也应提上日程，从乡村城镇还是城市中的区级开始，利用五年采取试点运行，缓慢将改革推向乡村的县级，最后实现国家领导人竞选。The Chinese Communist Party has a powerful story to tell. Despite its many faults, it has created wealth and hope that an older generation would have found unimaginable. Bold reform would create a surge of popular goodwill towards the party from ordinary Chinese people.中国共产党继往开来，留下无数动人的诗篇。尽管有一些不足，但它为老一辈中国人创造了难以想象的财富与希望。勇敢的改革将增加中国普罗大众对中共的好感。Mr Xi comes at a crucial moment for China, when hardliners still deny the need for political change and insist that the state can put down dissent with force. For everyone else, too, Mr Xis choice will weigh heavily. The world has much more to fear from a weak, unstable China than from a strong one.习近平正站在中国历史的重要时刻上强硬派否认政治改革的必要性并坚持武力镇压不满的反叛群众。习近平的选择对于大众的重要性也是如此，他的选择举足轻重。中国的强大势必让人不安，但一个动荡疲软的中国给予世界的不仅仅是焦虑这么简单。