旅游地生命周期的早期阶段投资决策.doc

姓名：茹国礼 学号：5405109027 班级：旅游管理091班
旅游地生命周期早期阶段的投资决策

摘要：本文通过建立一个使公共和私人实体识别的一般位置内旅游投资目的地接近其参与阶段或进入发展阶段的生命周期的指数。过程的核心部分是建设和计算一个新兴旅游目的地对投资者吸引力的综合指数，其结构是一个多层面的比较分析。过程中采集的数据来自官方统计数据和公共当局的直接面谈。该方法已用于计算波兰一个农村旅游目的地的投资者的吸引力，并确定在最有利的投资范围内，对投资者有吸引力的目的地，不仅取决于它提供的景点，而且取决于基础设施和服务的质量，以及人口的比例和公共财政。该研究还发现相对于波兰，其他旅游区存在普遍较低的竞争潜力状况。文中的方法同样适用于解决私营部门投资者，公共部门机构，尤其是地方政府。

关键词：旅游目的地 旅游规划 旅游投资 生命周期 波兰

旅游地生命周期的早期阶段
旅游地生命周期是由Butler（1980）提出的概念，这个发展阶段的过程是：勘探，参与，发育，巩固，停滞，停滞状态后（下降，稳定或复兴）。从一开始，这概念本身已经在转变和进化（如,1997;阿加沃霍尔,2006;海伍德,1992;约翰斯顿,2006;Strapp,1998），其效用多次在研究不同类型的目的地已被肯定。在生命周期的早期阶段通常是从历史角度研究，这些阶段中发生的过程是自然的，自发的，明显是由市场力量驱动的，研究人员很少尝试各个阶段的深入和独立的分析，这可能归咎于生命周期的模型假设和描述性特征：研究对象主要是整个生命周期已被观察到的目的地，或在其现象至少可以识别和发展的阶段。然而，在新兴旅游目的地，早期旅游地生命周期分析仍然可以成功地用于预测和规划旅游业发展。
参与阶段特点是：越来越多的设备和设施专门为游客提供，目的地的营销水平多样化，地方政府的参与。巴特勒（1980）强调，最大的压力是各国政府
和公共机构为游客提供和改善交通及其他设施，由于这些过程，目的地的游客数量与回游量不断有组织地增长。
从勘探到参与阶段，从参与到发展阶段，需要一个关键的变化，这就是能够比较的复兴阶段，这种变化的特点是当地的企业家和大量投资活动的出现，以及政府对企业的大力支持。罗素和福克纳（1999年），以及Weiermair科罗伦贝格（2004）所指出的旅游发展为动力在于当地企业家的创新精神和创造力，罗素和福克纳调用本地企业家运筹帷幄的能力，积极发展旅游产业。
旅游投资地点选择
同其他部门的经济一样，在旅游业的投资也注重公司的物理资源，即建立有形资产和提高公司的生产能力，或作为预计到未来会产生一个满意的现金流入回报率的资本投资。投资的定义是指投资者当期投入一定数额的资金而期望在未来获得回报，所得回报应该能补偿。在文学里，一般来说，两种方法可以达到：有形资产的方法(Gorynski,1981;大厅&泰勒,1997;Kamershen,麦肯齐& Nardineli,1991)和金融方法(Jajuga & Jajuga,1994;Johnson,2000;莫迪利阿尼和米勒,1958;利维和Sarnat,1990)，然而，在投资规划的时候，必须同时考虑到的有形资产和金融方法，因为两者不可分开。通过结合这两个方面，Gawron(1997)定义了投资是“有目的地花费的现金资源的公司旨在增加其未来的收入”，并补充说，他们“创造或改进公司的有形、金融和无形资产”。
考虑到旅游业的异构性和复杂性，这种类型的旅游投资必须考虑到功能性投资，有些投资与该地区的旅游功能有着不可分割的联系，并发挥着辅助或支持的作用。旅游部门的有形资产投资的机会是巨大的，因此，在微观经济和宏观经济层面的投资决策并不是那么简单。投资决策是一个复杂的多阶段过程，这是由投资周期性所决定的，从经济效率和投入资本回报率的角度来看，这也是一个重要的过程，因为这些性能指标确定其是否能够可持续增长。
在早期阶段的投资周期，当传统的评价方法，如净现值（定义为个别的未来现金流量的现值的总和）或内部收益率（折扣率，使净现值所有现金流量从一个特定的投资等于零）不能使用（布里格姆与休斯敦，2004年），决策者必须处理大量的信息，其正确的估价，对最终的投资回报率有关系。这是特别重要的“识别 - 机会研究”的一般性质，在那里有不止一个万能的方法或可行性评价厂址选择的投资项目（贝伦斯和Hawranek的，1993年）。
在地理区域的评价中，常常推崇使用分类方法，也称为多维的比较分析，发展目标投资者吸引力综合指数是基于这样的方法，在全球化和投资自由流动的时代，外国投资者经常面临着在有限信息的基础上，为他们的项目选择合适的地点。此外，在该阶段的研究最重要是要尽量减少投资支出，因此相对廉价和快速的预选方法显得特别有价值。多准则分析，提出了本文在下一节中有一个自由选择的评估标准，它具有一个额外的优势以适应目的地投资者。因此，它作为一个通用的方法适用于不同的行业和空间单位。此外，还要考虑在这里提出申请私营和公共部门的投资（后者可以依靠部分配套资金由欧盟结构基金）。
研究方法和验证方法
表一
在每个维度上的因素及其权重
内容/项目 权重
服务水平
每千居民的文化娱乐设施的数量 0.14
每千居民的体育和娱乐设施的数量 0.14
每千居民的店铺数 0.12
每千居民加油站 0.10
每千居民的汽车服务站的数量 0.08
移动电话覆盖：覆盖面积/总面积（算术平均值为所有运营商）0.08
每千名居民的热点地区网吧数量 0.08
每千居民的药店数量 0.06
每千居民的门诊和社区卫生服务中心的数量 0.06
每千居民的银行数 0.05
每千居民的ATM数量 0.05
每千居民邮电网点数 0.04
技术基础设施
每千居民的供水管网总长度（公里） 0.25
每平方千米的区域的供水管网总长度（公里） 0.25
每千居民的污水管网总长度（公里） 0.25
每平方千米的区域污水管网总长度（公里） 0.25

人口的比例和劳动力市场
部分注册的企业数量(酒店和餐馆)/私营企业数量 0.25
失业率 0.23
人口密度（每平方公里的居民人数） 0.22
每千居民注册的私营部门企业的数量 0.15
每千居民注册的企业（酒店和餐馆注册） 0.15
公共财政
每千居民总收入 0.25
投资支出占总支出比例 0.20
收入和留存在公社的收入占总区收入比例 0.20
文化、文化遗产保护、旅游、体育占总支出比例 0.20
公共道路维护支出占总支出比例 0.15

正如前文所述，投资者的吸引力取决于其技术和服务基础设施，以及人口的比例和地方公共财政的质量。每一个方面都是由各自所在地区影响因素和权重构成，项目和它们的评估每一个区中的权重和内容已在上表中表示。

参考文献：
[1] 阿加瓦尔,S.（1997）.度假周期和海滨旅游:评估其适用性和有效性.旅游管理,18（3）,65-73。
[2] 贝伦斯,W.＆Hawranek的的,P.M.（2003年）.行业的可行性研究编制手册.战争锯：联合国工业发展组织（UNIDO）.
[3] 布莱根,E.财务管理基础:汤姆森西南部.休斯敦,J.（2004）.
[4] Weiermair,K.,彼得斯,M.＆舒克特,M.（2007）.创业在阿尔卑斯山的旅游目的地的发展和旅游生命周期的影响:旅游游憩研究.32（1），83-93.

Investment decisions in the early stages of the tourism area life cycle

Abstract: The aim of the paper is to develop an index that would enable public and private entities to identify the general locations for tourism investments within destinations nearing to an end of their involvement stage or entering the development stage of their life cycle. The central part of the process, which is structured on a multidimensional comparative analysis, is the construction and computation of the composite index describing the investor appeal of an emerging tourist destination. The data acquired in the process comes from official statistics and direct interviews with representatives of public authorities. The method has been applied to compute investor appeal of a rural destination in Poland and to identify the most favourable investment areas within it. The investor appeal of a destination not only depends on the attractions offered by it but on the quality of infrastructure and services, as well as population ratios and public finances. The research has also revealed a generally low competitive potential of a destination relative to other tourism areas in Poland. The approach proposed in the paper is addressed equally to private sector investors, public sector agencies,particularly local governments.

Keywords:
tourism destination; TALC; tourism planning; tourism investment; Poland

Early stages of the tourism area life cycle
According to the TALC concept proposed by Butler (1980), the following stages can be identified in the evolution of a tourism destination: exploration, involvement, development, consolidation, stagnation, and post-stagnation (decline, stabilization or rejuvenation). From its inception, the TALC concept itself has been in transition and evolution (e.g. Agarwal, 1997; Hall, 2006; Haywood, 1992; Johnston, 2006; Strapp, 1998), and its utility has been verified numerous times in the research of different types of destinations.
The early stages of the life cycle are usually shown in a historical perspective, and processes occurring during these stages are presented as natural,spontaneous, clearly mechanistic, driven by market forces. Researchers rarely attemptan indepth and separate analysis of individual phases. This may be due to the model assumptions and the descriptive character of the TALC: research subjects are mainly destinations where the complete life cycle has been observed, or at least where the involvement and development stage phenomena can be identified. In reference to emerging destinations, however, the TALC analysis could still successfully be used for the forecasting and planning of tourism development (Butler, 2000, p. 291).
The involvement stage is thus characterised by a growing number of facilities and amenities provided primarily or even exclusively for visitors, an increased number of marketing instruments used at the destination level, and the engagement of local go- vernments. Butler (1980) stressed that "the first pressures [are] put upon governmentsand public agencies to provide and improve transport and other facilities for visitors".As a result of these processes, the number of visitors and return visits in the destination systematically grows.
A shift from the exploration to the involvement stage, and later from the involvement to the development stage, requires a critical change, whose significance can only be compared to that of the rejuvenation phase. The nature of that change is the emergence of local entrepreneurship and investment activity of local businesses and government. The importance of innovativeness and creativity of local entrepreneurs as a driving force of tourism development is noted by Russell and Faulkner (1999), as well as Weiermair and Kronenberg (2004). Russell and Faulkner call local entrepreneurs 'movers and shakers' of tourism industry development.
Investment site selection in tourism
Like in any other sector of the economy, investments in tourism can focus on a company's physical resources, ie. on building up tangible assets and enhancing the com- pany's productive capacity, or they can be treated purely as capital investments expected to yield future cash inflows at a satisfactory rate of return. The resultant variety of definitions of investment is the consequence of different approaches applied to the problem of investing. In literature, generally, two approaches can be encountered: the tangible assets approach (Gorynski, 1981; Hall & Taylor, 1997; Kamershen, McKenzie & Nardineli, 1991) and the financial approach (Jajuga & Jajuga, 1994; Johnson,2000; Modigliani & Miller, 1958; Levy and Sarnat, 1990). However, at the time of investment planning, both, the tangible and financial aspects have to be considered, as they are inseparable. By combining these two aspects, Gawron (1997) defines investments as "purposefully expended cash resources of a company aimed at increasing its future income" and adds that they "create or enhance the company's tangible, financial and intangible assets" (p. 13).
Taking into consideration the heterogeneous and complex nature of tourism, the typology of tourism investments must take into account the functions performed by investments. Some investments are inseparably connected with the area's tourism function, while others play ancillary or supportive roles. Opportunities for investing in tangible assets in the tourism sector are enormous. Hence, investment decisions at the microeconomic and mezoeconomic level are not simple. Investment decision-making is a complex multistage process determined by the nature of the investment cycle(Behrens & Hawranek, 1993). It is also a key process from the viewpoint of economic efficiency and return on the invested capital since these performance metrics determine sustainable growth.
In the early stages of the investment cycle, when traditional appraisal methods such as Net Present Value (defined as the sum of the present values of future individual cash flows) or Internal Rate of Return (the discount rate that makes the net present value of all cash flows from a particular investment equal to zero) cannot be used (Brigham & Houston, 2004), decision makers have to process a large amount of information whose correct valuation has a bearing on the ultimate return on investment. This is particularly relevant to the stage of "identification – opportunity study" of a general nature,where there is more than one universal method of site selection or viability appraisal of an investment project (Behrens & Hawranek, 1993).
In the appraisal of geographic areas it is worthwhile to use taxonomic methods, also known as multidimensional comparative analyses. Developing the destination's investor appeal composite index is based on such a method. In the age of globalization and free flow of investments, foreign investors often face the task of selecting suitable locations for their projects on the basis of limited information. Furthermore, in the phase of opportunity studies it is important to minimize investment outlay, hence a relatively inexpensive and quick pre-selection method, enabling appraisal of several location possibilities, is particularly valuable. A multicriterial analysis, proposed in the next section of this paper, has the additional advantage of a free selection of valuation criteria to suit the purpose defined by the investor. It could, therefore, serve as a universal method to be applied in diverse industries and spatial units. Moreover, considerations presented here apply to, both, private and public sector investments (the latter can rely on partial co-funding from EU structural funds).
Research method and Method verification
As it was mentioned earlier, the investor appeal of a destination depends on the quality of its technical and services infrastructure, as well as on population ratios and local public finances. Each of these dimensions is made up of factors which are evaluated individually in each district, with a feature's impact on the overall score for each district dependant on the assigned weight.
References
[1] Agarwal S. (1997). The resort cycle and seaside tourism: An assessment of its applicability and validity. Tourism Management, 18(3), 65-73.
[2] Behrens, W. & Hawranek, P.M. (2003). Manual for the preparation of industrial feasibility study. Warsaw: UNIDO.
[3] Brigham, E. & Houston, J. (2004). Fundamentals of Financial Management. Thomson South-Western.
[4] Weiermair, K., Peters, M. & Schuckert, M. (2007). Destination development and the tourist life-cycle:Implications for entrepreneurship in Alpine tourism. Tourism Recreation Research, 32(1), 83-93.

Table 1
THE FACTORS (INDIVIDUAL ITEMS) AND THEIR WEIGHTS IN EACH DIMENSION