2024全球氢评价（英）.pdf

Global Hydrogen Review 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYRevised version,October2024Information notice found at:www.iea.org/correctionsGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Abstract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide,as well as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development,trade,policy,regulation,investments and innovation.The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen.Focusing on hydrogens potential role in meeting international energy and climate goals,the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.It compares real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry.This years report has a special focus on Latin America and includes analysis on recent developments of low-emissions hydrogen projects in the region and how to unlock demand and move towards project implementation.In addition,the report assesses in detail the greenhouse gas emissions associated with different hydrogen supply chains.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Global Hydrogen Review was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA).The study was designed and directed by Timur Gl,Chief Energy Technology Officer.Uwe Remme(Head of the Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit)and Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.The principal IEA authors and contributors were(in alphabetical order):Giovanni Andrean(CCUS and geospatial analysis),Simon Bennett(lead on investment),Herib Blanco(lead on greenhouse gases and policies;Latin America),Sara Budinis(lead on CCUS),Jonghoon Chae(electricity generation),Elizabeth Connelly(lead on transport),Chiara Delmastro(lead on buildings),Stavroula Evangelopoulou(production and data management),Mathilde Fajardy(CCUS),Alexandre Gouy(industry),Rafael Martinez Gordon(buildings),Shane McDonagh(transport),Megumi Kotani(policies),Francesco Pavan(lead on production and trade),Amalia Pizarro(lead on Latin America and infrastructure;innovation),Richard Simon(lead on industry)and Deniz Ugur(investment).The development of this report benefitted from contributions provided by the following IEA colleagues:Yasmina Abdelilah,Ana Alcalde Bscones,Leonardo Colina,Ilkka Hannula,Martin Kueppers,Gabriel Leiva,Quentin Minier,Pedro Nino de Carvalho,Jennifer Ortiz and Mirko Uliano.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by senior management and other colleagues within the IEA,in particular Laura Cozzi,Keisuke Sadamori,Tim Gould,Paolo Frankl,Dennis Hesseling,Alessandro Blasi,and Araceli Fernandez Pales.With great appreciation,we thank Joerg Husar and Alejandra Bernal who provided essential support in the engagement with Latin America stakeholders.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript while Anna Kalista and Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process.Special thanks go to Prof.Detlef Stolten and his team at Jlich Systems Analysis,Forschungszentrum Jlich(Heidi Heinrichs,Daniel Rosales,Christoph Winkler,Bernhard Wortmann)for their model analysis on hydrogen production costs and analytical input on water stress levels.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report,particularly to Jethro Mullen,Curtis Brainard,Poeli Bojorquez,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Liv Gaunt,Grace Gordon,Clara Vallois and Wonjik Yang.The work benefitted from the financial support provided by the Governments of Canada and Japan.The following governments have also contributed to the report through their voluntary contribution to the CEM Hydrogen Initiative:Australia,Austria,Canada,Finland,Germany,the European Commission,the Netherlands,Norway,the United Kingdom and the United States.Special thanks go to the following organisations and initiatives for their valuable contributions:Advanced Fuel Cells TCP,Hydrogen Council,Hydrogen TCP,and International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy(IPHE).Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report.They include:Nawal Yousif Alhanaee,Maryam Mohammed Alshamsi and Abdalla Talal Alhammadi(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);AbdulAziz Aliyu(GHG TCP);Laurent Antoni and No van Hulst(IPHE);Florian Ausfelder,Thomas Hild and Isabel Kundler(Dechema);Esteban Barrantes Vsquez(Ministry of Environment and Energy,Costa Rica);Fabian Barrera,Matthias Delteil,Matthias Deutsch and Leandro Janke(Agora Energiewende);Hamed Bashiri,Rob Black,Caroline Czach,Kathryn Gagnon,Amandeep Garcha,Ellen Handyside,Amir Hanifi,Oshada Mendis,Cassie Shang,Margaret Skwara,Phil Tomlinson and Nichole Warkotsch(Natural Resources Canada);Lionel Boillot(EU Clean Hydrogen Partnership);David Bolsman and Alfred Mosselaar(RVO,Netherlands);Paola Brunetto(Enel);Fitzgerald Cantero(OLADE);Florimar Ceballos and Roco Valero(Hydrogen TCP);Ping Chen(Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics);Tudor Constantinescu(DG ENER,European Commission);Anne-Sophie Corbeau(Center on Global Energy Policy,Columbia University);Linda Dempsey(CF Industries);Luis Diazgranados and Wouter Vanhoudt(Hinicio);Robert Dickinson,Stuart Walsh and Changlong Wang(Monash University);Joe Doleschal-Ridnell,Doris Fuji and Shirley Oliveira(BP);Robert Fischer(SWEA);Tudor Florea(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Alexandru Floristean(Hy24);Daniel Fraile(Hydrogen Europe);Matias Garca(Ministry of Energy,Chile);Eric C.Gaucher(Lavoisier H2 Ceoconsult);Dolf Gielen,Carolina Lopez Rocha and Simona Sulikova(World Bank);Celine Le Goazigo(WBCSD);Jeffrey Goldmeer and Kanika Tayal(GE Vernova);Maria Jose Gonzalez and Martn Scarone(Ministry of Industry,Energy and Mines,Uruguay);Marine Gorner,Julian Hoelzen and Frdrique Rigal(Airbus);Patrick Graichen(Independent);Emile Herben(Yara);Stephan Herbst and Koichi Numata(Toyota);Yoshinari Hiki(ENEOS);Kenji Ishizawa(IHI Corporation);Steve James(Ministry of Business,Innovation&Employment,New Zealand);Nicolas Jensen(TES);Connor Kerr and TJ Kirk(Rocky Mountain Institute);Ilhan Kim(Ministry of Trade,Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Industry and Energy,Korea);Yoshikazu Kobayashi(The Institute of Energy Economics,Japan);Leif Christian Krger(Thyssenkrupp Nucera);Thomas Kwan(Schneider Electric);Pierre Labou(France Hydrogne);Martin Lambert(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies);Wilco van der Lans(Port of Rotterdam Authority);Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola);Franz Lehner and Jan Stelter(NOW GmbH);Michael Leibrandt(Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action,Germany);Paul Lucchese and Julie Mougin(CEA);Alberto Di Lullo,Andrea Di Stefano and Andrea Pisano(Eni);Constanza Meneses(H2LAC);Matteo Micheli and Andrea Triki(German Energy Agency);Susana Moreira(H2Global-HINT.Co);Patricia Naccache(Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil);Masashi Nagai(Chiyoda);Motohiko Nishimura(Kawasaki Heavy Industries);Mara Teresa Nonay Domingo(Enags);Ariel Prez(Hychico);Cdric Philibert(Independent);Andrew Purvis(World Steel Association);Carla Robledo and Douwe Roest(Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate,the Netherlands);Agustn Rodrguez Riccio(Topsoe);Xavier Rousseau(Snam);Sunita Satyapal,Jacob Englander,Marc Melaina and Neha Rustagi(Department of Energy,United States);Sophie Sauerteig(Department for Energy Security and Net Zero,United Kingdom);Robert Schouwenaar(Shell);Guillaume De Smedt(Air Liquide);Michael Smith(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Matthijs Soede(DG R&I,European Commission);Urszula Szalkowska(Eco Engineers);Kenji Takahashi(JERA);Andrei Tchouvelev(ISO);Denis Thomas(Accelera by Cummins);Tatiana Vilarinho Franco(Fortescue Future Industries);Marcel Weeda(TNO);Joe Williams(Green Hydrogen Organisation);Juan Camilo Zapata(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Colombia).Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Table of contents PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.9 Recommendations.14 Global Hydrogen Review Summary Progress.16 Chapter 1.Introduction.17 Overview.17 The CEM Hydrogen Initiative.18 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand.20 Highlights.20 Overview and outlook.21 Refining.28 Industry.32 Transport.37 Buildings.53 Electricity generation.54 Chapter 3.Hydrogen production.59 Highlights.59 Overview and outlook.60 Electrolysis.66 Fossil fuels with CCUS.78 Comparison of different production routes.81 Emerging production routes.94 Hydrogen-based fuels and feedstock.99 Chapter 4.Trade and infrastructure.104 Highlights.104 Overview.105 Status and outlook of hydrogen trade.105 Status and outlook of hydrogen infrastructure.113 Chapter 5.Investment,finance and innovation.135 Highlights.135 Investment in the hydrogen sector.136 Innovation in hydrogen technologies.150 Chapter 6.Policies.163 Highlights.163 Overview.164 Strategies and targets.166 Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Table of contents PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Demand creation.172 Mitigation of investment risks.178 Promotion of RD&D,innovation and knowledge-sharing.190 Certification,standards,regulations.194 Chapter 7.GHG emissions of hydrogen and its derivatives.203 Highlights.203 Overview.204 System boundaries and scope of emissions.206 Emissions intensities of hydrogen production routes.208 Emissions intensities of ammonia production routes.215 Emissions intensities of(re)conversion and shipping of hydrogen carriers.216 Emissions intensity of carbon-containing hydrogen-based fuels.223 Effect of temporal correlation on GHG emissions.230 Chapter 8.Latin America in focus.234 Highlights.234 Unlocking the potential of low-emissions hydrogen in Latin America and the Caribbean.235 Overview.237 Low-emissions hydrogen production.242 Low-emissions hydrogen demand.247 Moving towards implementation.269 Annex.287 Explanatory notes.287 Abbreviations and acronyms.289 Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary More projects and more final investment decisions,but setbacks persist Global hydrogen demand reached 97 Mt in 2023,an increase of 2.5%compared to 2022.Demand remains concentrated in refining and the chemical sector,and is principally covered by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels.As in previous years,low-emissions hydrogen played only a marginal role,with production of less than 1 Mt in 2023.However,low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 49 Mtpa by 2030 based on announced projects,almost 30%more than when the Global Hydrogen Review 2023 was released.This strong growth has been mostly driven by electrolysis projects,with announced electrolysis capacity amounting to almost 520 GW.The number of projects that have reached a final investment decision(FID)is also growing:Announced production that has taken FID doubled compared with last year to reach 3.4 Mtpa,representing a fivefold increase on todays production by 2030.This is split roughly evenly between electrolysis(1.9 Mtpa)and fossil fuels with carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS)(1.5 Mtpa).Hydrogen production from fossil fuels with CCUS has gained ground over the past year although the total potential production from announced projects grew only marginally compared with last year,there were several FIDs for previously announced large-scale projects,all of which are located in North America and Europe.As a result,the potential production in 2030 from projects using fossil fuels with CCUS that have taken FID more than doubled in the last year,from 0.6 Mtpa in September 2023 to 1.5 Mtpa today.Overall,this is noteworthy progress for a nascent sector,but most of the potential production is still in planning or at even earlier stages.For the full project pipeline to materialise,the sector would need to grow at an unprecedented compound annual growth rate of over 90%from 2024 until 2030,well above the growth experienced by solar PV during its fastest expansion phases.Several projects have faced delays and cancellations,which are putting at risk a significant part of the project pipeline.The main reasons include unclear demand signals,financing hurdles,delays to incentives,regulatory uncertainties,licensing and permitting issues and operational challenges.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Map of announced low-emissions hydrogen production projects,2024 Source:IEA Hydrogen Projects database(October 2024).China and electrolysers the sequel to solar PV and batteries?Announced electrolyser capacity that has reached FID now stands at 20 GW globally,of which 6.5 GW reached FID over the last 12 months alone.China is strengthening its leadership,accounting for more than 40%of global FIDs in capacity terms over the same period.Chinas front-running position is backed by its strength in the mass manufacturing of clean energy technologies:it is home to 60%of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity.Chinas continued expansion of manufacturing capacity is expected to drive down electrolyser costs,as has occurred with solar PV and battery manufacturing in the past.Moreover,several large Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have entered the business of manufacturing electrolysers,and today they account for around one-third of Chinas electrolyser manufacturing capacity.However,other regions are also stepping up efforts:in Europe,FIDs for electrolysis projects quadrupled