房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的影响研究.docx

摘要
近年来，我国房地产业发展迅速，其在地方经济中的地位日趋重要。在房地
产业快速发展的同时，也出现了房地产投资增幅过猛、房地产价格上涨过快、结
构性失调等一系列问题，尤其是房地产价格的过快上涨引发了广泛的关注。于是，
学术界出现了一系列讨论房地产价格上涨原因的论述，其中不少观点认为地方政
府出于地方财政增收的目的而介入房地产市场，从而抬高了房地产价格。但是，
房地产价格上涨是否对地方财政收入起到了明显的增收作用？地方政府该如何
理性看待房地产业发展所带来的税收收入？当前的学术界对这些问题并没有给
出圆满的答案。为规范和稳定房地产市场的发展，克服地方政府的有限理性行为，
本文对这些问题的进一步研究是非常必要的。
本文的主要思路和逻辑结构为：首先，对房地产及地方财政收入的相关概念
进行了界定，并详细论述了房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的影响机制。其次，
本文对上海房地产市场和地方财政收入的特点了进行了简要的概括，并选用上海
19个区县的有关统计数据，运用面板数据模型，实证分析了上海市全区县以及
不同区域（中心城区、次中心城区和郊区）房地产价格对地方财政收入的影响效
应，并在其后的章节中就实证结果产生的原因进行了剖析和研究。最后，根据前
文的研究结果对文章进行总结并得出结论。
本文通过对上海房地产价格波动对地方财政收入影响的系统研究，最终得到
了以下三点结论：第一，房地产价格波动通过影响房地产开发投资、房地产销售
和房地产租赁市场的发展作用于地方财政收入，在对上海市全区县的实证分析中
得出房地产价格和地方财政收入成正相关关系的结论。第二，由于房地产价格弹
性区域间存在差异和各地区地方财政收入对房地产业的依赖性不同，从而导致了
不同地区房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的影响程度存在差异。第三，地方政府
应该理性对待房地产市场的发展，不应该依赖房地产价格上涨对地方财政的增收
效应。在此基础上，本文提出以下三条政策建议：第一，规范土地供应，合理确
定土地价格；第二，调整住房供应结构，增加中低价位住房供给；第三，整顿房
地产市场秩序，抑制房地产投机行为。
关键词：房地产价格地方财政收入面板数据模型Abstract
In the last few years,the real estate industry developed so fast that it plays a
more important role in the local economy.In the meantime,some problems occurred
such as the excessive increasing of real estate investment,over speed of real estate
price rising and imbalance of industrial structure,especially the abnormal soaring of
the price.Therefore,there comes up a series of statement on the reason of the rising of
real estate price,among which there are some arguments that attribute the rapid price
rising to the local government intending to increase the local government revenues.
However,how does the real estate price play a positive influence on the increasing of
the local government revenues?And how should the local government deal with the
tax revenues bringing by the development of the real estate industry rationally?There
are still no comprehensive answers to these questions.In order to standardize and
stabilize the development of real estate market and conquer the limit rational action of
local government,it is very necessary to carry out a deep research on these questions.
The main ideas and logical structure of this paper is:Firstly,this paper defines
the relevant concepts of real estate and local fiscal revenues,and elaborates the
affection mechanism of the fluctuation of real estate price on the local fiscal revenues.
Secondly,this paper offers an easy analysis to the characters of real estate market and
local fiscal revenues of Shanghai,and by selecting the historic statistical data about 19
districts and counties of Shanghai and different districts(including center districts,
sub-center districts and suburban districts),and offers profound analysis to the
findings.Finally,this paper summarizes and draws the conclusion.
Based on our study on the effect of real estate price fluctuating plays on the local
revenues,we finally get the following points:Firstly,the fluctuation of real estate
price influences the local government fiscal revenues through affecting the
development of the real estate developing,selling and leasing markets,and during the
empirical analysis no all counties of Shanghai,it draws that the real estate price has a
positive correction with local fiscal revenues changes in the same direction,namely,
the rising of real estate price will increase the local fiscal revenues and contrarily,the
falling of real estate price will decrease the local fiscal revenues.Secondly,due to
differences of real estate price elasticity and dependence of local fiscal revenues on
real estate industry,the degrees of influence that real estate fluctuation plays on local
fiscal revenues are different among districts.The same fluctuating range of real estate
price creates more influence on local fiscal revenues of sub-center districts than those
of center and suburban districts.Finally,the local government should deal with the
development of real estate rationally,should not depend on the positive effect brought
by the real estate price rising.On the one hand,the contribution created by the rising
of real estate price is just periodic.On the other hand,the rising of real estate price
needs the supports of economic fundamentals.The local government’s one-sided
dependence on real estate industry will result in the lopsided industrial structure and
the deviation of house prices from the economic fundamentals.Once the falling of
house price happens,it will create a great impact on local economy and fiscalrevenues.This paper also put forward three pieces of policy advice based on the
whole analysis:Firstly,make sure the land supplying in a proper way and put the land
price on a reasonable level;Secondly,change the housing supply structure and expand
the house supply of middle-low price;Thirdly,regulate the order of real estate market
and restrict the speculative activities of the real estate industry.
Keywords:Real estate price Local fiscal revenues Panel-data Model目录
摘要
ABSTRACT
第一章绪论....................................................................................................................1
1.1问题的提出与研究意义.......................1
1.1.1问题的提出..........................................................................................................................1
1.1.2研究意义....................................................................2
1.1.2.1理论意义.......................................................................................................................2
1.1.2.2现实意义.................................................................................................2
1.2相关文献综述.............................................................................................................................2
1.2.1国内外研究现状................................................................................................................2
1.2.1.1国外相关研究现状....................................................................................................2
1.2.1.2国内相关研究现状....................................................................................................3
1.2.2文献评述.....................................................................5
1.3研究方法及研究内容.................................................................................................................6
1.4论文可能的创新和不足.....................................................................................................6
1.4.1论文可能的创新................................................................................................................6
1.4.2本文存在的不足................................................................................................................7
第二章房地产业的基本概念及理论框架....................8
2.1相关概念的界定........................................................................................................................8
2.1.1房地产相关概念的界定..............................................................................................8
2.1.1.1房地产及房地产业的含义...........................................................................................8
2.1.1.2房地产价格及其波动的内涵....................................................................................8
2.1.2地方财政收入的构成及其影响因素.....................................................9
2.1.2.1地方政府的界定及其财政收入的构成....................................................................9
2.1.2.2地方财政收入的影响因素........................................................................................9
2.1.3研究区域的界定.......................................................10
2.2房地产市场发展的区域特性..................................................................................................10
2.2.1区域间房地产价格弹性存在差异..................................................................................10
2.2.2区域经济发展对房地产市场发展的影响......................................................................11
2.2.3区域城市化阶段对房地产市场发展的影响..................................................................11
2.3房地产价格波动对地方财政收入影响的作用机制.............................................................12
2.3.1房地产价格波动对房地产及其关联产业的影响................122.3.1.1房地产价格波动对房地产业发展的影响..............................................................12
2.3.1.2房地产业波动对其他产业的影响..........................................................................13
2.3.2房地产业发展对地方财政收入的影响..............................................14
2.3.2.1地方财政收入中与房地产相关的税收..................................................................14
2.3.2.2房地产业发展对地方财政收入的影响..................................................................15
2.3.3房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的作用机制框架......................................................17
第三章上海市房地产市场与地方财政收入的特点分析....................................................18
3.1上海房地产市场分析..............................................................................................................18
3.1.1土地市场....................................................................................18
3.1.1.1土地市场存量较大..................................................................................................18
3.1.1.2土地出让面积高位回落且交易价格快速上升......................................................19
3.1.2商品房市场...............................................20
3.1.2.1商品房市场供需两旺..............................................................................................20
3.1.2.2房地产价格持续上涨且存在投资（或投机）成分..............................................21
3.2上海市地方财政收入分析...................22
3.2.1上海市地方财政体制的改革与调整..............................................................................22
3.2.2上海市地方财政收入的特点............................................................................................24

3.2.2.1地方财政收入增长速度较快且税收占比较大......................................................24
3.2.2.2地方税收收入中主体税种占比较为稳定..............................................................25
3.2.2.3地方税收对行业的依赖性不同..............................................................................26
第四章房地产价格波动对地方财政收入影响的实证分析................................................27
4.1面板数据模型的原理..............................................................................................................27
4.1.1模型的设定...............................................................................................................27
4.1.2面板数据模型形式设定检验..........................................................................................28
4.2房价波动对上海全区县地方财政收入影响的实证分析......................................................29
4.2.1模型构建与指标选取..............................................................................29
4.2.1.1实证模型的构建......................................................................................................29
4.2.1.2指标的选取..............................................................................................................30
4.2.2数据的选取与来源.............31
4.2.3实证分析..........................................................................................................................31
4.2.3.1模型设定的检验......................................................31
4.2.3.2固定效应与随机效应的选择——Hausman检验....................................................32
4.2.3.3实证结果检验..........................................................................................................32
4.3房价波动对上海不同区域地方财政收入影响的实证分析............33
4.3.1中心城区的实证分析......................................................................................................33
4.3.1.1模型设定形式的检验.............................................................................................33
4.3.1.2固定效应与随机效应的选择——Hausman检验....................................................33
4.3.1.3实证结果检验..........................................................................................................344.3.2次中心城区的实证分析..................................................................................................34
4.3.2.1模型设定形式的检验..............................................................................................34
4.3.2.2固定效应与随机效应的选择——Hausman检验....................................................35
4.3.2.3实证结果分析.......................................................................................35
4.3.3郊区的实证分析..............................................................................................................36
4.3.3.1模型设定形式的检验..............................................................................................36
4.3.3.2固定效应与随机效应的选择——Hausman检验.......36
4.3.3.3实证检验结果..........................................................................................................37
第五章实证结果的原因分析.........................................................................................38
5.1房价波动与地方财政收入存在正相关关系的原因分析......................................................38
5.1.1房价的上涨吸引了大量资金进入房地产开发领域......................................................38
5.1.2房价的上涨刺激了房地产市场的交易..........................................................................39
5.1.3房价的上涨促进了房地产租赁市场的发展.................................40
5.2房价波动对不同地区财政收入影响存在差异的原因..........................................................41
5.2.1不同区域间房地产价格弹性存在差异..........................................................................42
5.2.1.1中心城区土地约束明显导致房地产业价格弹性较小..........................................42
5.2.1.2次中心城区受中心城区发散效应导致房地产业价格弹性较大..........................42
5.2.1.3郊区较大的发展潜力导致房地产价格弹性也比较大..........................................43
5.2.2地方财政收入对房地产业税收的依赖性不同..............................................................44
第六章结论与政策建议................................................................45
6.1本文结论.................................................................................................................................45
6.2政策建议........................................................................................................................45
致谢...........................................................................................................................47
参考文献....................................................................................................................48
攻读学位期间发表的学术论文.....................