麦肯锡给医药行业的报告.pptx

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,McKinsey was commissioned in Q1,to:,provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market;,4 product categories were included:G.I.(Motilium),OBGY(Gyno.),Nail Infection(Sporanox)&Vertigo(Sibelium),provide objective assessment about the broad market opportunity(not including any urban centres);,provide business model/proposal for XJP to capture the broad market,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第1页,McKinsey Broad Market Study Process,Project design(Q1,),Project review with local and regional J-C team(Apr.03),Survey market selection(Apr.03),Field work in 2 cities in Shandong(May 03),1,st,interim report(mid-June 03),Field work in 2 cities in Sichuan(mid-June mid-July 03),2,nd,interim report and Killer Idea workshop(end July 03),Final report(Aug.03),Presentation to corporate management(Sept.03),麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第2页,BROAD MARKET CAN BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL HEALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY LEVEL AND BELOW,Regional city,County,Town,Village,Class 3 hospital,Class 2&below hospital,Pharmacy,Clinic,Broad market,Source:McKinsey analysis,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第3页,BROAD MARKET DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND“OUT PATIENT”Rx DRUGS,Source:McKinsey analysis,Targeting easily diagnosed,non-life threatening diseases,Easy to use,Relatively cheap,Relatively safe with few side effect,Examples,OTC,Mature,NewMotilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Rx,Outpatient,In-hospital,Sporanox/Sibelium,Cipramil,Broad market drugs,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第4页,McKinsey Key FindingsOverall Market Situation,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第5页,BROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94%OF OVERALL DEMAND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGS,Class 3 hospital,Broad market drug sales breakdown by geography,Percent,*,For only 2 according cities,*Data for only Sichuan province,Source:Interview with distributors,hospitals,pharmacies McKinsey analysis,All 4 cities,Broad market represents 94%of demand,100%=,3.6,2.3,1.3,Bn RMB,Shandong*,Sichuan*,City,100%=,21,6,2,Mn RMB,County,Town,Village,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Sibelium*,Broad market,Sales breakdown of XJP product,Percent,Other channel at city level,GDP per capita:,#of county,9,199,32,11,300,18,5,801,14,County is critical for broad market,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第6页,DUE TO LOW INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMBURSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES,MOST PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVES,Insurance coverage in Yantai&Jining,For those with insurance,they can use their personal accounts(RMB 100300 per year)to cover their broad market drug expense,In loosely controlled region(like Yantai),patients can treat the personal accounts as savings account,Patients pay on their own after the account balance is zero,A majority of population does not have insurance,They pay broad market drugs by themselves,Insured,Self-pay,Total,City,County,Town,Village,3-5,95-97,20-30,70-80,10-15,85-90,1,99,0,100,Source:Interview;focus group;McKinsey analysis,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第7页,PATIENTS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMS,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Drivers,Increased price sensitivity,Changed medical insurance policy,Improved highway infrastructure,Rich information access,TV,Newspaper,Increased life pace,No time to visit hospital,Pharmaceutical market deregulation policy,More and more pharmacies&clinics,Conveniently located,Middle-small hospitals find it hard to survive due to lack of patients,Severe symptoms,Town hospital,Minor symptoms,Largest hospitals in city and county,Middle-small hospitals in city and county,Pharmacy/clinics,Rural patients,City patients,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第8页,A LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES;PHARMACY CLERKS BECOME INFLUENTIAL,*,40%of the patients changed their mind in pharmacy,Source:Interview;Focus group;McKinsey analysis,“,What makes you change your perceived drugs?”*Pharmacy patient survey,Percent,Shandong city level,Perceived drug not available;persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Perceived drug available but persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Changed mind by myself,“,When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind,I just ask the pharmacy clerk to recommend.Then I will check the drugs introduction sheet,if this drug covers my disease,I will have a try”,Yibin city level focus group,Total drug sales breakdown,Percent,Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinics,Overall,Motilium,Gyno Daktarin,Sibelium,XJP should design special initiatives to target pharmacy channels,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第9页,CLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPECIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOW,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Clinics share in total drug sales,Percent,Overall,County,Town,Village,36%,26,34,100,Sichuan,Shandong,City,8,27%,8,27,100,3,XJP should think about cost-effective way to lock in individual clinic/barefoot doctors,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第10页,G.I.Category Review,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第11页,*,More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies,*Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising,creating brand awareness in consumers,Source:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,FOR GI DISFUNCTION DRUGS AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND;PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIES,Latent market demand,60%of total patients do not seek any treatment,As market leader,increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the key demand levers,Small clinics and pharmacies are important channels,75%of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmacies,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital*,Go to,small clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Percent,Motiliums market share,Motilium has a vast room for grow because of significant leakage along the patient flow,60%of GI patients that do seek treatment,Current market share of 4%which could be grown further,Among the 40%people who seek GI treatment,about 30%would buy banded generic drugs*,while the rest would buy non-brand generic drugs,1.6麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第12页,FOR GI DRUGS,POLARIZATION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channel,Percent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“,Unlike things in the past,patients nowadays generally try to avoid coming to hospitals because of hospitals expensive charges.For GI disease,most people can judge by themselves.So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to buy drugs.”,Qixia GI physician interview,“,Most GI patients are repeating patients.They know which drugs to buy,and where the drugs are cheap.So usually they will choose pharmacies&clinics.”,Jining retail pharmacist interview,Yantai,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,Importance of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishing,Retail pharmacy would be the major battle field for GI drugs,ROUGH ESTIMATION,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第13页,SALES OF GI DRUGS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY,WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGS,Percent,Motilium,Weiershu,(,谓尔舒),Mosapride,(,莫沙比利),Tidines*,(,替丁类药),Others*,Sidashu(,斯达舒),*,Others including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(,快胃片)、,Weifuan(w,胃复安)、,Jinweixiaoshipian(,健胃消食片)、999(三九胃泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒,and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs,*Including Cimetadine,Ramitidine&Famotidine,Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,Total=RMB 24305 million,Village,County,Town,City,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第14页,IN BROAD MARKET,MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channel,Mn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(,斯达舒),Weiershu(,谓尔舒),Mosapride(,莫沙比利),Tidines(,替丁类药),GI drugs,12,35,53,243.05,14,34,52,9.83,6,66,29,6.62,5,76,20,7.30,40,38,21,7.93,4,22,73,44.64,YANTAI&JINING,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第15页,AND IN COUNTY GEOGRAPHY,City,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strata,Mn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(,斯达舒),Weiershu(,谓尔舒),Mosapride(,莫沙比利),Tidines(,替丁类药),GI drugs,15,26,19,243.05,41,15,22,20,9.83,43,22,37,26,6.62,15,26,44,21,7.30,9,18,50,23,7.93,10,1,17,17,44.64,66,YANTAI&JINING,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第16页,Vaginal Infection Category Review,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第17页,FOR VAGINAL INFECTIONS,PATIENTS ARE MORE AWARE OF THE DISEASE AND GO TO HOSPITAL FOR TREATMENT,Percent,Less latent demand,Almost all patients aware of the disease due to obvious symptoms and regular check up,80%of patients seek treatment,Large hospital is important influencing channel,Most patients seeking treatment will go to large hospitals,Though half or more will purchase prescribed drugs in pharmacies,Market player should focus on share gain,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital,Go to,small clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Source:Physician,pharmacy and clinic interviews,Hospital is still number 1 channel to push Gyno Daktarin sales,Pharmacy is becoming increasingly important,30%would use branded drugs,while 70%would use non-branded drugs,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第18页,FOR GYNO DAKTARIN,HOSPITAL IS CRITICAL FOR PRESCRIPTION BUT PURCHASING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO RETAIL PHARMACY,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channel,Percent,Source:Hospital interviews;Retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“,Gyno patients will usually come to hospital for body check and go to pharmacies to refill drugs.For such kind of disease,people still trust large hospitals.However,more and more people purchase drugs in pharmacies”,Liangshan No.2 hospital,Gyno physician interview,“,I dont have many gyno patients.This is because of 3 reasons.First,I am a man;second,I dont have facilities to check the body in the clinic;third,patients are usually familiar with me and they will feel awkword.”,Zhangyongxin town level clinic interview,Yantai,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,ESTIMATE,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第19页,IN ADDITION,GYNO DAKTARIN NEEDS TO GROW THE MARKET SHARE ESPECIALLY THOSE OF COUNTY AND TOWN,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strata,Mn RMB,%,Gyno Daktarin,Xiaomishuan(,消糜栓),Mycostatin(,制霉菌素),Shuangzuotaishuan(,双唑泰栓),Jieeryin(,洁尔阴),Vaginal infection drugs,YANTAI&JINING,City,County,Town,Village,26,50,20,71.38,42,47,12,2.47,24,43,32,4.54,41,46,13,4.46,3,59,38,5.46,9,43,27,5.83,4,0,0,0,0,22,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第20页,Nail Fungal Infection Category Review,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第21页,FOR TINEA UNQUIUM DRUGS,DEMAND LATENCY IS EVEN HIGHER,Percent,Extremely latent demand with increasing awareness,90%of patients do not seek treatment,Awareness and treatment rate is increasing slightly due to competitors heavy advertising,Only around 10%of those seeking treatment purchase drugs,Only 1%would follow prescription,Total incidence*,Do not seek treatment,Seek treatment,Not aware,*,The incidence rate is around 5%in Shandong,Source:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Only 1%actually buy drugs,Low treatment rate is mainly due to affordability issue of the patients,Sporanoxs potential market as a Tinea Unquium drug is small,and is unlikely to be a broadmarket hit,Go to large hospital,Go to,clinic,Go to pharmacy directly,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第22页,HOSPITAL CHANNEL IS STILL DOMINATING TINEA UNQUIUM DRUG MARKET WHILE PHARMACY CHANNEL IS PICKING UP,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channel,Percent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;Retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“,We gradually carry some Tinea Unquium drugs in these years.Because more and more patients,although still quite small in amount,come here to ask for Liangjia after seeing its advertisement.I think most patients still go to hospital for treatment.”,Jining Kangfu pharmacy,“,I seldom see Tinea Unquium patients.And also,because the drugs are very expensive,I didnt carry them.If there is really someone come to my clinic,I will suggest them to pharmacy.”,Yantai clinic interview,Yantai,1997,1999,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第23页,*,Others including around five drugs,such as Huihuangmeisu（,灰黄霉素）,Lisulao（,里素劳）,Lianghuija（,亮灰甲）,etc.,Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER THAN SPORANOX AT RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,Percent,Others*,Total=RMB 9.22 million,County,Town,City,Sporanox,Lanmeishu,(,兰美抒),Liangjia(,亮甲),Village,0,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第24页,Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER THAN SPORANOX AT RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,City,Total,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,County,Share of leading drugs within Tinea Unquium Yantai&Jining,Mn RMB,%,Total,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,4.0,2.2,1.8,0.1,5.0,0.8,4.1,0.2,100%=,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*,(,兰美抒),Liangjia(,亮甲),Others,Liangjia has relatively high market share in retail pharmacies,At city level,Lanmeishu has 31%of hospital channel,better than Sporanox,Hospital at county level and above should be the main focus,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第25页,PRICE IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR SPORANOX,Sporanox is too expensive for most farmers whose annual income is only around RMB 2,000,Even at county level,cost of using sporanox for effective treatment is higher than total drug expense per year for an average person,County level price threashold,City level price threashold,County level annual drug expense per person,Average insurance allowance per year,Cost of sporanox as a derma drug,Source:Interviews;McKinsey analysis,Cost of sporanox as a STD drug,RMB,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第26页,FOR SPORANOX,XJP SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON HOSPITALS,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channel,Mn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(,兰美抒),Liangjia(,亮甲),Tinea Unquium,65,33,9.22,69,30,1,2.21,84,15,0,1.50,12,87,1.26,2,2,YANTAI&JINING,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第27页,AND AT CITY AND RICH COUNTIES,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strata,Mn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(,兰美抒),Liangjia(,亮甲),City,Tinea Unquium drugs,44,54,9.22,48,50,2,2.21,53,47,1,1.50,67,29,1.26,2,4,0,1,1,0,YANTAI&JINING,麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,第28页,Vertigo Drug Category Review,麦肯锡给医药行业