经济学人杂志双语阅读汇总.doc

经济学人杂志双语阅读：Consumer spending in Asia：Shopaholics wanted
Consumer spending in Asia
亚洲消费状况
Shopaholics wanted
购物狂时代该来了？
Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth?
亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？
ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its pre-crisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter.
时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。在美国工业生产继续下滑的5月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些国家也在渐渐恢复。台湾截至5月的工业产出年度化增长较前三个月上升了80%。摩根大通预计二季度亚洲新兴经济体年度化增长率将达到7%。
Asia's ability to decouple from America reflects the fact that the region's downturn was caused only partly by the slump in American activity. In most Asian economies falling domestic demand was more important than the drop in net exports in explaining the collapse in GDP growth. The surge in food and energy prices in the first half of 2008 squeezed profits and spending power. Tighter monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation then further choked domestic demand.
亚洲与美国脱钩的能力说明该地区经济下滑只是部分由于美国经济活动的影响。大多数亚洲经济体内需下降要比净出口下降对经济影响更大，这就解释了GDP增长率暴跌的原因。2008年上半年食品和能源价格的暴涨让利润和消费能力双双缩减。从紧的货币政策旨在遏制通胀却进一步使得内需受到抑制。
The recent recovery in industrial production reflects the end of destocking by manufacturers as well as the large fiscal stimulus by most governments. But the boost from both of these factors will fade. Meanwhile, export markets in developed economies are likely to remain weak. So the recovery in Asian economies will stumble unless domestic spending, notably consumption, perks up.
近期工业生产的回复显示制造商产品积压的状况正在结束，同时多国政府大规模经济刺激计划也已起效。但是这些原因造成的增长终会消失，同时面向发达经济体的出口市场看上去依旧疲软。因此除非让内需，尤其是让消费振作起来，否则亚洲经济体的回复之路依旧前途坎坷。
Consumers' appetite to spend varies hugely across the region. In China, India and Indonesia spending has increased by annual rates of more than 5% during the global downturn. China's retail sales have soared by 15% over the past year. This overstates the true growth rate because it includes government purchases, but official household surveys suggest that real spending is growing at a still-impressive rate of 9%. In the year to May, sales of household electronics were up by 12%, clothing by 22% and cars by a stunning 47%.
消费者消费的胃口在这一地区有着巨大的差异性。中国、印度和印尼在全球经济下滑期间消费额年度化增长率超过了5%。中国的零售销售额去年暴增了15%,但这个数字是被夸大的,因为它包括了政府采购的花销,但是官方的家庭调查显示真实的消费增长率依然达到了令人印象深刻的9%。今年截至五月，家用电器销售增长12%，服装销售增长22%而汽车销售增长则达到了惊人的47%。
Elsewhere in the region, spending has stumbled, squeezed by higher unemployment and lower wages. In Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea real consumer spending was 4-5% lower in the first quarter than a year earlier, a much bigger drop than in America. But Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC, sees tentative signs that spending is picking up. Taiwan's retail sales rose in May for the third consecutive month. Department-store sales in South Korea rose by 5% in the year to May.
该地区其它地方由于受增高的失业率和工资水平下降的影响，消费增长步履蹒跚。香港、新加坡和韩国一季度真实消费较去年下降了4-5%，这比美国的情况还要糟糕。但是汇丰银行的经济学家弗雷德里希-纽曼认为，当下消费止跌上升的趋势已初露端倪。台湾的零售业销售额到五月为止已连续3月上升。韩国百货商场销售额到五月为止也上升了5%。
It is often argued that emerging Asian economies have large current-account surpluses-and are thus not pulling their fair weight in the world-because consumers like to save rather than spend. Yet this does not really fit the facts. During the past five years consumer spending in emerging Asia has grown by an annual average of 6.5%, much faster than in any other part of the world. It is true that consumption has fallen as a share of GDP, but that is because investment and exports have grown even faster, not because spending has been weak. Relative to American consumer spending, Asian consumption has soared (see chart 2).
人们通常认为新兴亚洲经济体有着大量的国际收支经常项目顺差，而这却并不能使它们在世界贸易中占有应有的比重，因为亚洲的消费者倾向储蓄多过消费。但这却并不真正符合事实，在过去五年中崛起的亚洲国家消费年均增长率达到了6.5%，这要比世界上任何其他地区都要快。消费占GDP比重确实下降了，但这并不表明消费减弱，而是因为投资和出口增长的更快。与美国消费相比，亚洲消费是暴增了。
(见表二)
In most Asian economies, private consumption is 50-60% of GDP, which is not out of line with rates in countries at similar levels of income elsewhere. China, however, is an exception. Private consumption there fell from 46% of GDP in 2000 to only 35% last year-half that in America. In dollar terms, spending is only one-sixth of that in America. (Singapore's consumption is also low, at just under 40% of GDP.)
在大多数亚洲经济体中，个人消费占GDP的50-60%，这个数字并不比收入水平相同的其他任何地方低。然而中国是个例外。个人消费占GDP从2000年的46%下降到了去年的35%，这个数字才是美国的一半。以美元结算的话，消费只有美国的六分之一。(新加坡的消费也很低，不足GDP的40%)
This explains why China's government has recently taken bolder action than others to boost consumption. Over the past six months the government in Beijing has introduced a host of incentives to encourage households to open their wallets. Rural residents get subsidies for buying vehicles and other goods such as televisions, refrigerators, computers and mobile phones; urban residents get a subsidy if they trade in cars and home appliances for new goods; tax rates on low-emission cars have also been cut. There is huge potential for higher consumption in the countryside as incomes rise: only 30% of rural households have a refrigerator, for example, compared with virtually all urban households.
这也解释了中国政府为何最近比任何国家都大力促进消费。在过去6个月中北京政府颁布一揽子激励政策来鼓励家庭打开他们的钱包。农村居民得到了购买车辆和电视、冰箱、电脑以及手机等商品的政策倾斜；城市居民则得到了购买汽车和家电换新方面的政策倾斜；小排量汽车的税率也被下调。随着农村收入增加，消费上升有着巨大潜力：与城市家庭近乎每家一台相比，只有30%的农村家庭拥有电冰箱。
The government has also introduced several measures this year to improve the social safety net, such as spending more on health care, pensions and payments to low-income households. On June 19th it ordered all state-owned firms that had listed on the stockmarket since 2005 to transfer 10% of their shares to the National Social Security Fund to shore up its assets. The short-term impact is likely to be modest but if such measures ease households' worries about future pensions and health care, it could in the long term encourage them to save less and spend more.
政府也在今年颁布了几项举措改善社保网络，比如对医疗卫生领域加大投入、向低收入家庭发放养老金和收入补助。6月19日还命令2005年以来的国有上市公司向国家社保基金转让10%的股份，以稳固后者资产。虽然看起来短期效果有限，但是如果这一系列举措能够缓解家庭对未来养老金和医疗问题的担忧，长远的看还是能鼓励人们存得更少花得更多的。
Another way to boost consumption is to make it easier to borrow. In most Asian economies household debt is less than 50% of GDP, compared with around 100% in many developed economies; in China and India it is less than 15%. South Korea is the big exception: households have as much debt relative to their income as Americans and their saving rate has fallen over the past decade from 18% of disposable income to only 4%. In many other Asian economies financing for consumer durables is virtually nonexistent. Promisingly, the Chinese bank regulator announced draft rules in May to allow domestic and foreign institutions to set up consumer-finance firms to offer personal loans for consumer-goods purchases.
另一个刺激消费的方法是让借贷更容易。多数亚洲国家家庭借贷不足GDP的50%，与此对比发达经济体这个数字在100%左右；在中国和印度则更是少于15%。韩国却是个特例：与美国一样，家庭举债和他们收入一样多，储蓄率也已经在过去十年中从可支配收入的18%下降到了只有4%。在其他亚洲经济体中面向耐用消费品的金融服务事实上是不存在的。幸运的是，中国银监机构已经在5月宣布了一些规则草案，允许中外机构建立消费金融公司为消费者购买商品提供个人贷款。
These measures are a modest step in the right direction. But a bigger test of Asian governments' resolve to shift the balance of growth from exports towards domestic spending is whether they will allow their exchange rates to rise. A revaluation would lift consumers' real purchasing power and give firms reason to shift resources towards producing for the domestic market. But so far, policymakers have been reluctant to let currencies rise too fast.
这些措施只不过是正确方向上有限的一小步。但亚洲各国政府想要将增长平衡由出口向内需转变的更大实验能否成功将取决于它们是否允许本国货币汇率上升。这种再估价将会提升消费者的实际消费能力，并让企业有理由转移资源为国内市场生产商品。但迄今为止，政策制定者们都不情愿让货币升值太快。
Asian spending is already an important engine of global growth. Even before the crisis, emerging Asia's consumer spending contributed slightly more (in absolute dollar terms) to the growth in global demand than did America's. But it could be even bigger if Asians enjoyed the full fruits of their hard labour, rather than subsidising Western consumers through undervalued currencies. It is time for an even greater shift in spending power from the West to the East.
亚洲的消费已经是世界经济增长的重要引擎。甚至在危机之前，亚洲新兴经济体的消费者对全球经济增长的贡献也要比美国消费者稍大一点点(在完全以美元作为结算单位的前提下)。而如果亚洲人能够充分享用他们辛勤劳动的果实，而不是通过低估本国货币补贴西方消费者的话，这种作用将会更明显。现在是将消费能力从西向东做更大转移的时候了。
经济学人杂志双语阅读：Return of the grave-dancers坟墓舞者又回来了
Banks and private equity
银行和私人股本
Return of the grave-dancers
扫墓舞者又回来了
Jun 4th 2009 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Buy-out firms chafe under ownership restrictions, but pile in nonetheless
尽管被严格的所有权监管挫伤，但是投标人还是有一大堆
PRIVATE equity has been bitten once, but it doesn't do shy. Though some of its better-known names were left scarred after investing too early in troubled banks and thrifts-remember TPG's disastrous foray into Washington Mutual-buy-out shops are lining up for a second shot at finance as confidence picks up again.
私人股本已经上过一回当了，但是他们并不为此感到害羞。尽管他们中已经对过早投资那些问题银行和存款机构而留下了可怕的名声-记得摩根大通对华互银行损失惨重的收购-但是现在当对金融市场重拾信心后，第二轮的收购者们又排成了队。
For much of 2008 dealmaking was dead. But since the sale of IndyMac, a collapsed Californian lender, to a group of private buyers in January, “the logjam has broken”, says Josh Lerner of Harvard Business School. In recent weeks Blackstone, Fortress, Carlyle, Wilbur Ross and others have bought stakes in banks, among them Florida's First Southern and BankUnited, the state's largest home-grown lender. Several other deals are said to be in the works, including the possible sale of Atlanta-based Silverton Bank, seized by regulators in May, to a group that includes Carlyle. Bidding wars are even breaking out.
2008年很多收购几乎停滞。但自从1月份私人买家团体对加州一个名为IndyMac的破产贷款公司的收购“打破了僵局”，哈佛商学院的乔希.勒纳如是说。最近几周，黑石公司、要塞公司、凯雷集团、威尔伯•罗斯等都在购买银行的股权，其中有佛罗里州最大的贷款机构，第一南方联合银行。还有几个收购案据说也在进行中，包括亚特兰大的希尔佛顿银行，其在五月被监管机构责令停业，买方包括了凯雷集团。竞标的战争甚至都要爆发了。
Private equity has piles of unallocated capital, although it has become much more difficult to wrest undrawn funds from investors. It also has a lot more raw material to work with, as the pace of bank failures accelerates (see chart). Hundreds of lenders will need help to survive but most large banks are too capital-constrained to step in. Those that have raised fresh equity, such as JPMorgan Chase, will use it to repay taxpayers.
尽管它越来越难从投资者那里获得那些不打算取回的资金，私人股本仍然怀揣大量无处可投的资金。随着银行破产步伐的加快，他会有更多的原材料可以利用。数以百计的贷款机构需要帮助来存活，但是多数大银行对准入资本的限制太严格。那些获得注资的，如摩根大通，将会用它来偿还纳税人。
Hence the focus on private equity. The favoured strategy is to snap up a small bank, healthy or not, and turn it into a vehicle to scoop up failed local rivals. John Kanas, a veteran banker charged with reviving BankUnited, sees in it the foundation of a regional powerhouse. The Florida market is particularly attractive, he says, as many competitors there are shackled by regulatory or government restrictions.
因此焦点放到了私人股本。有利的战略是抢购一个小银行，不管健康与否，然后用它做媒介来铲平那些失败的当地对手。约翰.喀纳斯，一个资深银行家，担任银行联盟的复苏，将它看作是地区经济动力的基础。佛罗里达州的市场非常吸引人，他说，这里很多竞争者都被政府监管或限制所桎梏。
Investing is still risky. Smaller banks are riddled with commercial-property loans, which are going bad at an alarming rate. American banks' loan-loss reserves are falling ever further behind actual losses and now cover just 70% of the total, according to Moody's, a rating agency. But buyers are growing cannier, pouncing only once a bank has been seized and insisting the government shoulders much of the downside in loss-sharing agreements.
投资依然是有风险的。小型银行饱受商业物业贷款之苦，这些贷款正在以惊人的速度变为坏账。根据评级机构穆迪的统计，美国银行的坏账准备只是涵盖了全部损失的70%，远低于实际损失。
The bigger problem for buy-out firms is posed by long-standing restrictions on bank takeovers by non-financial firms. Those unwilling to become bank-holding companies, with the extra regulation that entails, have to make do with a maximum stake of 33% (and voting rights of less than half that). Acquisitions are thus only possible via “club” deals, in which several buyers band together and regulators police the arrangement to ensure they are not acting in concert thereafter.
对于收购方更大的问题是，对非金融机构接管银行长期存在的限制。那些不愿意成为持股银行的公司(为此将接受额外的监管)将最多只能得到33%的股权(且投票权则不能超过股权的一半)。因此，将只有可能通过“俱乐部式并购”实现，即几个买家捆绑在一起，监管者将监督整个安排以确保他们没有幕后交易。
Alternatively, investors can use their personal wealth to buy entire banks. Christopher Flowers, a specialist in bank buy-outs, did just that, splashing out on a small Missouri lender and rebranding it Flowers Bank. But these solo buyers are barred from tapping their firms' funds for expansion, greatly limiting the appeal of such moves.
另一种方法是，投资者们可以用其私人财富来买下整个银行。克里斯托弗.弗拉沃，银行并购的专家，就是这样做的，买下一个小贷款机构，并重整品牌为弗莱沃银行。但是这些个人买家被禁止用他们公司的资金来进行扩张，这极大地限制了这种方式的吸引力。
As the crisis has rumbled on, regulators have reluctantly ceded some ground to the barbarians at the banks' gates. They can now, for instance, appoint more directors without this being deemed to constitute control. Clubs of investors are being pre-cleared so they can pick up bank charters quickly when opportunities arise. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates nationally chartered banks, has even developed a “shelf charter”, which such groups can secure in advance of deals. It has already handed out two. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which handles failed banks and is expected to release new guidelines on private-equity investment soon, has also softened its stance. Sheila Bair, its chairman, believes buy-out firms should be considered eligible bidders if they show they can run a bank prudently and are “good corporate citizens”.
随着金融危机的车轮继续滚滚向前，监管者也不情愿地将通往银行大门前的土地割让给所谓的野蛮人。例如他们现在可以任命更多的董事而不为视为是机构控制。投资者团体可以被事先审查，这样当机会出现时，他们可以迅速获得银行执照。负责监管全国性银行的货币监理署官员甚至发明出了“执照货架”，这些团体可以确保是交易安全的。他们已经递出了两个。负责解决破产银行的联邦存款保险公司，也放低了姿态，他们可能会在近期出台对私人股本投资的新指导方针。主席希拉.拜尔相信如果收购者能够证明他们可以审慎地经营银行，并且是好的企业公民的话，就可以考虑被认为是合格的投标人。
The Office of Thrift Supervision, which watches over lenders with around $1 trillion of assets, has gone even further. It recently permitted a single buy-out shop, MatlinPatterson, to take over a thrift in Michigan and has indicated that it will wave through similar deals.
储蓄机构监理局(他们负责监管拥有10000亿美元资产的贷款机构)更是大刀阔斧。它最近允许一个单一收购者MatlinPatterson接管了密歇根的一个储蓄机构，并宣称还会有类似的并购案浪潮。
This puts it at odds with the more cautious Federal Reserve, which oversees the holding companies that sit atop most banks. The Fed will not permit a firm that is not regulated as a bank to own a controlling stake in one, even if the investment is ringfenced. The central bank worries about mixing commerce and finance, which have been legally separated for decades in America.
这一切都使得美联储(负责监管大多数银行控股公司)的更加审慎的态度显得奇怪。美联储将不允许任何一个不是被作为银行来监管的公司取得银行控股权，即便投资是专项的。央行担心几十年以来一直被分开监管的商业和金融业混为一谈。
Most investors accept that banks, unlike thrifts, are out of bounds to lone buyers. Some complain