1、Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学
2、依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,Thank you,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,
3、Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能
4、作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作
5、外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,An Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Real,Communication,A
6、n Integrated Course,3,综合教程,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,制作 外语教学与研究出版社 版权所有,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。
7、谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,*,*,本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢。本资料仅供参考,不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Text,Can bad luck be explained?,第1页,Text Organization,General-to-particular pattern,I.Introduction Reasons,II.Reasons,Mathematical /psychological,III.Specific bad luck 1,Specific bad luck 2,第2页,Introduction,/,Lead in(1-3),Raise quest
8、ions,1.Do you ever get the impression that you were born,unlucky,?,2.What might be the rational explanation?,第3页,II.The definition of badness(4-6),Neutral,Bad,Badness,Marginally bad,extremely bad,On the spectrum-The train arrives 5 minutes late,第4页,Reasons for bad things happening in three,(7-10),1.
9、The most important of all-Duration and memorability(Paras 7-8),2.tendency(Para 9)-look for examples which confirm and ignore those which dont.,第5页,3.Rational explanation,Probability and independence(Para 10),第6页,Match the examples with the type of events,1,burst water pipe,2.car accident,3.lose wedd
10、ing ring,4.be redundant,5.drop a precious vase,A.sth might happen when you feel depressed,B.memorable and unfortunate event,C.event that confirms the bad luck theory,D.unlucky event that makes people suffer depression,第7页,Key,1-B,2,3-C,4-D,5-A,第8页,Specific Examples,Specific bad luck 1-,-,Map reading
11、 misfortunes,Specific bad luck 1-,-,The lights are always red when Im in a hurry,第9页,Judging statements(I),1.The chance of picking a destination which is close to the edge of the map is much higher than you expect.,2.People always forget the number of times the road doesnt land awkwardly.,第10页,Judgi
12、ng statements(I),3.30%of the map page is duplicated because of selective memory.,4.Map reading misfortune is a typical selective memory.,第11页,Judging statements(II),5.The relative frequency of red and green lights on a journey is another example of selective memory.,6.Traffic light is simplified as
13、being like tossing a coin,with a 50%chance of being red.,第12页,Judging statements(II),7.Red lights come up not so often when the driver is not in a hurry.,8.Red lights are forgotten immediately while green lights stick in peoples minds.,第13页,Key,1-4,5-8 ,第14页,Number the statements in a correct order,
14、1,.As with coincidence,in bad luck,there is a tendency to look for examples which confirm the theory and ignore those which dont.,2.Bad luck can be partly explained from the angle of maths and psychology.,第15页,3.When it comes to bad things happening in three,it may be due to the duration and memorab
15、ility of the first event.,4.There is at least one reason why bad events cluster together,that is,probability and independence.,第16页,5.The longer the first event sticks in the mind,the more opportunity you may have to experience two more bad events.,6.Bad luck is a problematic concept because it is r
16、elative.,第17页,Key,5-1-3-6-4-2,第18页,课后练习答案,Reading and Understanding,2.1)a 2)b 3)a 4)b 5)d 6)a,7)b 8)a,3.1)b 2)e 3)d 4)c 5)a,第19页,Dealing with Unfamiliar Words,4.,1)a 2)b 3)a 4)a 5)b,5.1)duration 2)ignore,3)Unfortunately,A lot of people,have,already,been sacked.,4)overlapped,5)I havent taken any note
17、s for,three consecutive lessons.,6)duplicate,第20页,6.1)misfortunes 2)coincidence 3)latter,4)ajacent 5)situated 6)frequency,7)reminder,第21页,Can bad luck be explained?,1,Toast always lands butter side down.,It always rains on,bank holidays,.You never win the lottery,but other people you know seem to.Do
18、 you ever get the impression that you were born,unlucky,?Even the most rational person can be convinced at times that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time.We all like to believe that,Murphys Law,is true(“if it can go wrong,it will”).,Text,第22页,2,Part of the expl
19、anation for bad luck is mathematical,but part is psychological.,Indeed there is a very close connection between peoples perception of bad luck and interesting,coincidences,.,3,For example,take the belief that“bad things always happen in threes”(just like buses.!),This popular notion would be unlikel
20、y to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study,but it must have some basis in experience,otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in the first place.,What might be the rational explanation?,Text,第23页,4,The first question is“what is bad?”,5,Some things are only,marginally,bad,for example the tra
21、in arriving five minutes late.Some are extremely bad,such as failing an exam or being,sacked,.,So badness is much better represented as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there.,Text,第24页,6,A particular event may only be a,misfortune,because of the circumstances around i
22、t.The train arriving five minutes late is a,neutral,event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you wait.It is bad if you are late for an important meeting.,Text,第25页,7,When it comes to bad things happening in threes,what may be most important of all is the durati
23、on and memorability of the first event.,Take a burst pipe while you are away on holiday,for example.It may take less than an hour to flood the house,but this one bad event can remain,alive and kicking,for many months,with the cleaning up operation and the debate with your,insurers,acting as constant
24、reminders,of the original event.,Text,第26页,8,The longer the first bad event sticks in the front of your mind,the more opportunities you will have to experience two more bad events.,A month later someone bumps the back of your car and a week after that you lose your wedding ring.The mind which is al
25、ready on a low from the first event will quickly leap to connect the,subsequent,misfortunes as part of the series.,Text,第27页,It wouldnt matter that there could be a two-month timescale over which everything happened.By the time you have recovered from the water damage you are actively looking out fo
26、r the next disaster.,The timescale has been extended as long as is necessary to confirm the original prophecy.,Text,第28页,9,As with coincidences,in bad luck there is a tendency to look for the examples which confirm the theory,and ignore those which dont(because they are less interesting).Single bad
27、events happen all the time.That alone should be enough to,disprove,the theory.Bad things also come in twos.,But it is more likely that a friend will tell you“three bad things have happened to me,isnt that typical”than“only two bad things have happened to me,which just proves that the theory doesnt w
28、ork”.,After all,the latter is tempting fate!,Text,第29页,10,There is,however,at least one rational reason why bad events might,cluster,together.,It is related to probability and independence.,Unlucky events are not always independent of each other.Anybody who is made,redundant,is bound to,suffer some
29、depression.That will lower the bodys defences,making the person,vulnerable,to illness,and also making them less alert and,responsive,(so they may be more likely to drop a precious,vase,for example).,Text,第30页,So while the probability of being made redundant on any particular day and the probability
30、of being sick may both be small,the chance of both occurring is almost certainly higher than the product of the two probabilities.,Map reading misfortunes,11,So much for the general incidents of bad luck which,crop up,in life.Lets get on to a specific one that everyone has encountered.,Text,第31页,12,
31、You are off to visit a friend who lives at the other end of the city.You look up the road in the street,atlas,and discover that it is right on the edge of the page.This means that finding the precise,route,becomes a,chore,of,flicking,backwards and forwards from one page to the next.Either the road i
32、s half on one page and half on the other,or its spread across the fold in the middle of the book.And if its an,ordnance survey map,then your destination is at just the point where you folded the map over.,Text,第32页,13,It doesnt seem fair.After all a map only has a tiny bit of“edge”but plenty of“midd
33、le”in which your destination could be,situated,.Or has it?In fact the chance of picking a destination which is close to the edge of the map is a lot higher than you might expect.,Text,第33页,14,Take a look at the map in the diagram.,You will have a problem if your destination is anywhere in the shaded
34、 area marked on the map.,This shaded area is just 1 cm into the page all the way around.,It looks,insignificant,.However,the shaded area adds up to 56 cm,2,.,Text,第34页,That represents 28 per cent of the area of the whole page of the map,which means that any specific point that you are seeking on thi
35、s map has a 28 per cent chance(thats nearly one in three)of being in an awkward position within 1 cm of the edge of the page.And if you regard being within 2 cm of the edge of the page as being awkward,the chance of ill-fortune climbs to 52 per cent.In other words,you might expect this misfortune to
36、 occur on almost every other journey.,Text,第35页,15,As in most bad luck stories,you forget about the number of times the road doesnt land,awkwardly,and remember the times it does,and in this case the chance of a bad result is so high that before long you are bound to be cursing your misfortune,or the
37、 maps,printer,or both.This,incidentally,is why many modern road maps allow significant,overlaps,between,adjacent,map pages.In a good road atlas,at least 30 per cent of the page is,duplicated,elsewhere.,Text,第36页,The lights are always red when Im in a,hurry,16,One of the best examples of selective me
38、mory where an unfair comparison is made between good and bad is in the relative frequency of red and green lights on a journey.,For once,the perception of“I always seem to get red lights when Im in a hurry”is true and,verifiable,.,Text,第37页,To simplify the situation,think of a traffic light as being
39、 like tossing a coin,with a 50 per cent chance of being red,and 50 per cent of being green.(In fact most traffic lights spend more time on red).If you encounter six traffic lights on a journey,then you are no more likely to escape a red light than you are to toss six consecutive heads,the chance of
40、which is 1 in 64.,Text,第38页,17,Red lights come up just as often when the driver is not in a hurry;its just that the disadvantage of the red light is,considerably,less if time is not critical.The false part of the perception is that red lights happen more than green lights.,Text,第39页,The reason for t
41、his is simply that a driver has more time to think about a red light than a green light,because,while the latter is gone in seconds and indeed is an experience no different from just driving along the open road the red light forces a change of behaviour,a moment of exertion and stress,and then a dep
42、rivation of freedom for a minute or so.,Red lights stick in the mind,while green lights are instantly forgotten.,Text,第40页,生活中倒霉事能解释吗?,1,每次吐司掉到地上总是抹了黄油那一面贴地。每逢公假日必定下雨。你买彩票从来没中过大奖,不过你认识人里似乎有些人,你有没有以为自己生来就是个倒霉蛋?即使是最理智人有时候也会对此深信不疑,认为冥冥之中有一个力量让他们在最糟糕时期里灾祸连连。我们都愿意相信墨菲定律是正确(“该犯错,终将犯错”)。,Text,第41页,2,人之所以走背
43、运,部分是概率问题,部分是心理上问题。确实,人们对背运感知和一些有意思巧合之间有着紧密联络。,3,就拿“坏事成三”这种想法来说吧(就像等公交车一样,要么不来,要么一下来三辆!)。这种流传甚广观念可能根本经不起科学检验,不过它必定有一些现实依据,不然话也不会有这么个说法了。那么,什么样解释才是合理呢?,Text,第42页,4,我们要考虑第一个问题是“什么是坏事?”,5,有些事情只是稍稍有点不好,比如火车要晚点五分钟。有些事情则是糟糕透顶,比如考试不及格,或是被炒鱿鱼了。所以我们更应该把事情好坏看成是一个程度问题,而不是非好即坏。,Text,第43页,6,某件事情有可能因为相关一些原因而变成了不幸
44、事。火车要晚点五分钟,假如你边读着报纸上一篇有趣文章边等车,并不赶时间,那么这就是一件无关紧要事。不过假如你要去参加一个主要会议,而且马上要迟到了,那火车晚点就变成坏事了。,Text,第44页,7,谈到坏事成三问题,其中最关键原因是第一件倒霉事连续时间有多长以及给人印象深不深。比如说,你外出度假期间家里水管爆裂了。可能不到一个小时你家就变成了一片汪洋,而在接下来几个月中你脑子会不停地想起这桩倒霉事,因为你要把房子清理洁净,还要和保险企业就赔偿问题讨价还价,这些都会让你不停地想起这件事。,Text,第45页,8,第一件倒霉事困扰你时间越长,你再碰到两件倒霉事机率就越大。说不定一个月之后,有些人开
45、车追尾撞了你车。又过了一个星期,你结婚戒指不见了。出了第一件倒霉事,你情绪原来就很低落,这时你会很快地把以后发生事情联络到一起,把它们看作是相关联一连串事件。,Text,第46页,即使这几件事情时间跨度可能长达两个月之久,那也不会改变你看法。等你从浸水事件中平复过来时候,你已经在主动地等候下一个灾难发生了。这个时间跨度已经被拉长了,直至能够证实你之前预言是正确。,Text,第47页,9,人们碰上倒霉事时候会像碰到巧合时候一样,去寻找一些事例来验证他们先入为主想法,而忽略掉与这种想法有出入事情(因为那些事情不是那么有趣)。孤立倒霉事每时每刻都在发生。光凭这一点就能够推翻“坏事成三”理论了。坏事也
46、能够是成双。不过你朋友很可能会对你说:“我一连碰到了三件倒霉事,可真是应了那句俗话!”,而不是说:“我只碰上了两件倒霉事,这不恰好证实了坏事成三这个说法不成立吗?”毕竟,说后一个话是要冒风险!,Text,第48页,10,不过,最少有一个合理解释能够说明为何坏事会扎堆。这包括到概率和独立性问题。并不是全部倒霉事都互无关联。任何一个人在被辞退之后都会心情抑郁,这会降低他们身体抵抗力,使他们更轻易得病,而身体反应也不像以前那么警觉敏感(所以他们就更有可能遇上打坏珍贵花瓶这么事)。,Text,第49页,所以,即使人们在某一天被裁员和在某一天生病概率都很小,不过这两件事同时发生概率必定要高于它们分别发生
47、概率。,看地图时碰到倒霉事,11,关于日常生活中突发普通倒霉事我们就说到这里。下面让我们来看一个每个人都会碰到事情。,Text,第50页,12,你要去造访一个朋友,他住在城市另一头。你在街道地图册上寻找去他家路线,结果发觉这条路恰恰就在这页地图边上。这意味着要找到一条准确路线,你就必须从这一页翻到下一页,不停地翻来翻去,很是麻烦。这条路线不是二分之一在这一页二分之一在下一页,就是被地图中间书脊夹着。假如你手里拿是全国地形测量局地图,那么你目标地可能恰好就在地图册折合处。,Text,第51页,13,这似乎很不公平。毕竟一个地图“边缘”只有那么一点儿,而“中间”地方那么大,你要去地方完全能够在中间
48、啊!事实果真如此吗?实际上,你随便挑一个地方,它出现在靠近地图边缘机率比你想象要大得多。,Text,第52页,14,看一看下面地图。,假如你目标地在地图上标出那个阴影区域里,你就碰到麻烦了。这个阴影区域离地图四面边缘处只有一厘米距离,这似乎微不足道。不过这些阴影区域面积加起来有,56,平方厘米。,Text,第53页,差不多占了整页地图面积,28%,,这意味着任何一个你要找地方都有,28%,(差不多是三分之一)机率出现在离页边不到一厘米尴尬地方。假如你设定离页边两厘米为阅读不便话,那你遇上坏运气机率就攀升到了,52%,。换句话说,差不多每隔一次你就会碰到这么倒霉事。,Text,第54页,15,在
49、大多数相关倒霉事故事中,你会忘记路线好找次数,只记得路线不好找次数,在这种情况下,你倒霉机率必定会很高,以致于过不了多久你就又会诅咒自己运气,诅咒地图出版商,或者两个一起诅咒。顺便说一下,这正是现在许多地图允许相邻两页有很大重合部分原因。一份制作精良地图册,每页最少有,30%,部分会在其它页上重复出现。,Text,第55页,我赶时间时候总是碰上红灯,16,关于选择性记忆,即人们对好运气和坏运气所做不公正比较,最好一个例子就是路上红绿灯相对频率问题。有那么一次,“我赶时间时候,总是碰上红灯”这种说法是真实可靠。,Text,第56页,为了便于了解,我们能够把红绿灯看作是投掷一枚硬币,出现红灯和绿灯
50、机率各为,50%,。(实际上大多数红绿灯,红灯时间更长一点。)假如在路上碰上六个红绿灯,全部是绿灯就和扔硬币连续六次都是人头朝上概率是一样,为六十四分之一。,Text,第57页,17,司机不赶时间时候碰到红灯其实和赶时间时候一样多;只是假如时间不紧急,红灯带来不便要小得多。认为红灯出现次数比绿灯多其实是一个错觉。,Text,第58页,产生这种错觉原因很简单,因为司机有更多时间去想红灯,而绿灯时候,车子几秒钟之内就飞奔而过了,这其实和在通畅公路上开车没有任何区分,而红灯却迫使司机改变行为,一小会儿时间里要强迫自己努力一下,承受点压力,还要失去一两分钟自由。所以红灯会深深地印在司机脑海里,而绿灯转






