关键矿物的回收利用-扩大回收和城市采矿的战略（英）.pdf

Recycling of Critical MineralsStrategies to scale up recycling and urban miningThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYRecycling of Critical Minerals Abstract PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract As the shift to a clean energy system accelerates,substantial investments in new mines and refining capacity,especially in geographically diverse regions,will be required to produce essential minerals such as copper,lithium,nickel,cobalt and rare earths.Recycling is indispensable to the security and sustainability of critical minerals supply for clean energy transitions.While recycling does not eliminate the need for mining investment,it creates a valuable secondary supply source that reduces reliance on new mines and enhances supply security for countries importing minerals.Moreover,scaling up recycling mitigates the environmental and social impacts related to mining and refining while preventing waste from end-use technologies ending up in landfills.The importance of unlocking the potential of recycling has long been a theme of International Energy Agency(IEA)analysis,and this was one of the key takeaways from the first-ever IEA Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Summit in September 2023.This report,which responds to the request by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy as part of its G7 agenda,aims to evaluate the current status of recycling of minerals critical to the energy transition,analyses the prospects for secondary supply under different scenarios,and outlines targeted policy recommendations to accelerate the uptake of recycling that can pave the way for more sustainable and secure future mineral supply chains.Recycling of Critical Minerals Acknowledgements PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Office of the Chief Energy Economist of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks,in co-operation with other directorates of the International Energy Agency(IEA).Tae-Yoon Kim,Head of the Energy Minerals Analysis Unit,designed and directed the report together with Tim Gould,Chief Energy Economist.Amrita Dasgupta led the analysis for and the production of the report and was one of the principal authors.The principal authors from across the agency were:Eric Buisson(rare earths and solar photovoltaic recycling),Shobhan Dhir(battery and copper recycling,economics),Alexandra Hegarty(state of play,mine waste,sustainability),Gyubin Hwang(economics,technology),Yun Young Kim(e-waste recycling,cross-border waste trade),K.C.Michaels(policies and regulations,sustainability),Toms de Oliveira Bredariol(environmental issues),Ryszard Pospiech(data),and Joyce Raboca(policies and regulations,cross-border waste trade,sustainability).Eleni Tsoukala provided essential support.Erin Crum edited the manuscript.The report also benefited from valuable contributions and inputs provided by IEA colleagues,in particular,Laura Cozzi,Christophe McGlade,Oskaras Alsauskas,Simon Bennett,Jiayi Chen,Sadhika Gulati,Alexandre Gouy,Mathilde Huismans,Teo Lombardo,Kentaro Miwa,Tristyn Page,Apostolos Petropoulos,Jemima Storey and Biqing Yang.Thanks also to Jethro Mullen,Curtis Brainard,Astrid Dumond,Zachary Egan,Lucile Wall,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Merve Erdil,Liv Gaunt,Grace Gordon and Rob Stone of the Communications and Digital Office.This analysis has been supported by the Clean Energy Transitions Programme,the IEAs flagship initiative to transform the worlds energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all,particularly through the financial assistance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy.Thanks also go to the IEA Working Party on Critical Minerals and the IEA Critical Minerals Expert Advisory Group who provided valuable input to the report.Many experts from outside the IEA provided essential input and/or reviewed preliminary drafts of the report.Their comments and suggestions were of great value.They include:Stphane Bassene(TotalEnergies);Peter Borkey(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD);Stphane Bourg(BRGM French Geological Survey);Andrew Brown(OECD);Peter Recycling of Critical Minerals Acknowledgements PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Buchholz(BGR German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources);Aman Chitkara(independent expert);Vincenzo Conforti(Glencore);Grace Cook(Ramboll);Clint Cox(The Anchor House);Matteo Craglia(International Transport Forum);Alexandre Damiens(Orano);Martin Dietrich Brauch(Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment CCSI);Sylvain Eckert(Infravia);Rod Eggert(Colorado School of Mines);Steven Fecht(Ramboll);Colin Hamilton(BMO Capital Markets);Peter Handley(independent expert);Sara Hastings-Simon(University of Calgary);Daniel Hill(Natural Resources Canada);Kijune Kim(Korea Zinc);Paul Kolisnyk(Teck Metals);Luc Leboeuf(Natural Resources Canada);Courtney Lynn(EroCopper);Julien Masson(Eramet);Tom Moerenhout(Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy);Shinsuke Murakami(The University of Tokyo);Jane Nakano(Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS);Junhyeok Park(Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources KIGAM);Brian Parkey(Freeport-McMoRan);Alicia Polo y La Borda(The Copper Mark);Mark Richards(Rio Tinto);Benoit Richeb(Orano);Katarina Svatikova(OECD);Perrine Toledano(CCSI);Lyle Trytten(Trytten Consulting);Constanze Veeh(European Commission)and Ke Wang(World Resources Institute).Recycling of Critical Minerals Table of contents PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.7 Introduction.16 Why recycling?.16 Objective of the report.18 Scope.18 Scenarios.19 Chapter structure.21 Chapter 1.State of play.22 1.1.How recycling works.22 1.2.Indicators to assess recycling performance.24 1.3.Business models.26 1.4.Historical performance by commodity and region.32 1.5.Recent policy developments.40 Chapter 2.Outlook for critical minerals recycling.47 2.1.Overview of the impacts of recycling and implications for primary supply.47 2.2.EV and storage batteries.50 2.3.Copper recycling.76 2.4.Rare earth elements from permanent magnets.88 2.5.Mine waste.101 2.6.E-waste.109 Chapter 3.Cross-cutting issues to maximise the potential of recycling.118 3.1.Economics of recycling.118 3.2.Technology innovation.123 3.3.Cross-border waste and scrap trade.128 3.4.Sustainability considerations.137 Chapter 4.Policy recommendations.146 4.1.Develop detailed long-term policy roadmaps.146 4.2.Harmonise waste management and recycling policies to develop efficient secondary markets.147 4.3.Strengthen domestic infrastructure with incentives and mandates.148 4.4.Encourage traceability,standards and certifications to boost the consumption of recycled materials.150 4.5.Provide targeted financial support for technology innovation,R&D and workforce training.150 4.6.Strengthen recycling systems in emerging market and developing economies.151 4.7.Tackle data and information gaps.152 4.8.Embrace a holistic approach beyond recycling.153 4.9.Tackle environmental,social and governance issues for recyclers.153 Annex A.155 Policies.155 Abbreviations and acronyms.160 Units.161 Recycling of Critical Minerals Executive summary PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Recycling can bring multiple benefits in ensuring reliable and sustainable critical mineral supplies Recycling is indispensable to the security and sustainability of critical minerals supply for clean energy transitions.As the shift to a clean energy system accelerates,substantial investments in new mines and refining capacity,especially in geographically diverse regions,will be required to produce essential minerals such as copper,lithium,nickel,cobalt and rare earths.While recycling does not eliminate the need for mining investment(or the associated revenues for resource-rich countries),it creates a valuable secondary supply source that reduces reliance on new mines and enhances supply security for countries importing minerals.This sets critical minerals apart from fossil fuels that cannot be re-used(and whose use via combustion results in long-lived emissions in the atmosphere).Expanding recycling infrastructure can also help build reserves to buffer against future supply disruptions.Moreover,scaling up recycling mitigates the environmental and social impacts related to mining and refining while preventing waste from end-use technologies ending up in landfills.This first-of-its-kind report on critical minerals recycling presents key policy recommendations to accelerate the uptake of recycling practices.Building on its landmark report in 2021,the International Energy Agency(IEA)has been deepening its analysis on the latest market trends and key policy issues around critical mineral supply chains through extensive data collection,modelling and close dialogue with industry stakeholders.At the IEA Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Summit in September 2023,participants highlighted the critical role of recycling in enhancing mineral security.Responding to this growing emphasis,the report assesses the current state of recycling,explores the potential for secondary supply,and presents policy recommendations to scale up recycling.Despite growing policy ambitions,the use of recycled materials has so far failed to keep pace with rising material consumption.In the case of copper,which plays a central role in all electrical applications,the share of secondary supply(including direct use scrap)in total demand fell from 37%in 2015 to 33%in 2023.Similarly,the share for recycled nickel decreased from 33%to 26%over the same period.The main exception is aluminium,which benefits from well-established waste management programmes and supportive regulations,where the recycled share increased modestly from 32%to 35%.Recycling of battery metals is an emerging commercial opportunity and is growing fast.Production of recycled battery metals,such as nickel,cobalt and Recycling of Critical Minerals Executive summary PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.lithium,has recently seen rapid growth,albeit from a low base.When assessing recovered metal volumes relative to available feedstock for recycling,rates surged to over 40%for nickel and cobalt and to 20%for lithium in 2023.The market value of recycled battery metals also experienced nearly 11-fold growth between 2015 and 2023,with more than half of this growth occurring in the last three years.Although electric vehicle(EV)batteries are not yet available for recycling at scale,these developments indicate vast potential for expanding recycling,if the right policy incentives are in place.Policy momentum is gaining strength,with a surge in new policies and regulations.According to the IEAs Critical Minerals Policy Tracker,more than 30 new policy measures related to critical mineral recycling have been introduced since 2022.These policies generally fall into four categories:strategic plans,extended producer responsibility(EPR),financial incentives and cross-border trade regulations.Some also include regulatory mandates such as industry-specific targets for material recovery,collection rates and minimum recycled content.However,most strategies are not yet comprehensive.Among the 22 countries and regions surveyed,only 3 had a broad framework that includes clear targets,implementation mechanisms,monitoring systems and economic incentives.Recycling reduces the need for new mines,enhancing security and sustainability A successful scale-up of recycling can lower the need for new mining activity by 25-40%by 2050 in a scenario that meets national climate pledges.While accelerated clean energy deployment calls for a substantial expansion of new mines and refineries to meet material demand,it also creates an opportunity for secondary supply to play an increasingly valuable role.In the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS),which reflects national climate pledges,recycling reduces new mine development needs by 40%for copper and cobalt,and close to 25%for lithium and nickel by 2050.The market value of recycled energy transition minerals grows fivefold,reaching USD 200 billion by 2050.As a result,requirements for primary materials start to decline around mid-century.Nonetheless,investments in new mines remain essential as supply levels required by mid-century are still higher than todays production and existing mines face natural declines in output.Enhancing critical minerals recycling offers substantial financial and sustainability benefits.In the APS,some USD 600 billion of mining investments is required through 2040,while achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 necessitates around USD 800 billion.Without an increase in recycling,these amounts would be 30%higher,increasing the burden of mobilising the necessary financing.Recycling can also mitigate the environmental and social impacts Recycling of Critical Minerals Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.associated with mineral production.On average,recycled energy transition minerals such as nickel,cobalt and lithium incur 80%less greenhouse gas emissions than primary materials produced from mining.This translates into a 35%cumulative reduction in emissions from the production of lithium,nickel and cobalt required to meet their needs in climate-driven scenarios over the period to 2040.The energy security benefits of recycling are greatest in regions with limited mineral resources and high clean energy technology deployment.In Europe,under the APS context,secondary supply from batteries meets about 30%of the regions lithium and nickel demand by 2050,notably higher than the global average below 25%.This could substantially reduce either import bills or investment needs for domestic supply.There is a major gap in todays recycling rates between advanced and developing economies.In the case of electronic waste(e-waste),collection rates are notably higher in advanced economies than in emerging and developing economies.Collection rates in developing economies in Asia and Latin Ame