2040年全球汽车行业前景展望.pdf

STUDYPace yourself for the marathon aheadAutomotive Outlook 2040The automotive industry is in the midst of a lengthy period of disruption,a storm that is unlikely to subside any time soon.Over the next decade and a half,new technology and geopolitical events will continue to radically transform markets and disrupt supply chains.At the same time,the center of gravity of the industry will shift but in which direction remains to be seen.Will Asia be calling the shots in 2040,or will Western players manage to stage an effective comeback?The uncertainty over what lies ahead makes it vital for those in the industry to understand the trends driving this prolonged process of transformation over the next decade and a half.Our research shows that the previously identified shift towards innovative,shared mobility solutions that we thought would be a global phenomenon will in fact largely be limited to metropolitan areas,which account for less than ten percent of the distance traveled by private vehicles overall.What,then,does the road ahead hold for the automotive world?We identify four directions of change that stand out from the many trends in the market four megatrends that we believe will shape the transformation of the industry through 2040.Their initials form the acronym PACE:The automotive world is becoming more Polarized,with regional nuances and added complexity making globalization more challenging,forcing players to make choices.Automation is growing,with the rise of autonomous vehicles and use of AI all along the value chain.Vehicles are increasingly Connected and digitalized.And Electrification continues apace indeed,our base-case scenario assumes a battery-electric vehicle share of 71 percent in 2040,while our downside case assumes a share of 64 percent,subject to regional variation.In terms of market dynamics,sales volumes and revenue pools are shifting to China and the Global South,while Western markets have already reached peak auto in terms of new vehicle sales.The following pages include detailed forecasts for future revenue pools in each region,plus specific recommendations for automotive manufacturers and suppliers.The road ahead will be a long one,with unexpected twists and turns along the way.This is a marathon,not a sprint and players must pace themselves accordingly.P 4P 6P 10P 26P 34P 45PACE 2040 Our core beliefs1/The automotive world is changing,but probably not how you were expecting 2/Four developments reshaping the auto industry 2.1/Polarized From globalization to regionalization 2.2/Automated From human to artificial intelligence 2.3/Connected From horsepower to terabytes 2.4/Electrified From ICEs to EVs3/The evolution of products and regions 3.1/Move towards local-for-local products 3.2/China and the Global South on the rise,but Western markets hold firm 4/Navigating the transformation 4.1/OEMs Chinese dominance or revitalization of the West?4.2/Suppliers New revenue pools and a shifting balance of power 5/The marathon aheadCover photo Artur Debat/Getty ImagesMANAGEMENT SUMMARYContents Automotive Outlook 2040 Pace yourself for the marathon aheadAutomotive Outlook 2040|32|Roland BergerFour PACE megatrends are driving the transformationThe automotive industry in 2040 will be polarized,automated,connected and electrifiedThe world is becoming more PolarizedAuto players need a regionally differentiated approach and potentially a new global market focusAutomation and AI are transforming the industryAutomation is creating new profit pools,while AI technology is key to improving performanceIn 2040,the automotive industry will be more ConnectedPlayers should prepare themselves for a paradigm shift in the structure of the industryElectrification is growing fast everywhere Although recent market developments have called into question current BEV adoption forecasts,the overall direction of change cannot now be reversedPrivate vehicles will remain part of the equationShared mobility concepts are reshaping customer behavior,but only in large urban areasTomorrows vehicles are electrified,automated and connectedBut major regional disparities at a product level will persist through 2040 Market dynamics vary from region to regionWestern markets are reaching peak auto,but growth will continue in China and the Global South The balance of power is shifting towards ChinaThe question is,can Western automotive manufacturers revitalize?Suppliers face structural change Strategic priorities will depend on suppliers domain,regional focus and growth expectations PACE 2040 Our core beliefsAutomotive Outlook 2040|5The automotive world is in the midst of a major transformation,a radical redefinition of the balance of power in the industry.New entrants are aggressively seizing market share from established players,vehicle technology is evolving at an unprecedented pace and the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is gaining previously unseen layers of complexity.Now is a crucial time for the automotive industry to revisit its strategic priorities.How will the industry evolve over the next 15 years?What forces will drive the transformation?And how should car manufacturers and suppliers prepare for the marathon ahead?Traditionally,automotive players base their long-term strategies on the changes they expect to see in mobility behavior changes such as an overall decrease in the use of private vehicles or the transformation of todays automotive players into mobility service providers or commodity suppliers for other mobility players.Indeed,the assumption that innovative,shared mobility solutions would replace demand for private vehicle-based mobility lay behind many views on the long-term outlook for the industry,particularly those developed in the mid-2010s.Our analysis of the global automotive industry finds that the expected disruption in mobility has occurred at much slower pace than anticipated.Current changes in mobility patterns are mainly restricted to large urban areas,which account for less than ten percent of the distance traveled by private vehicles overall.Even in these large urban areas,the hype around new mobility offerings has not delivered on its promises and has proven overoptimistic with regards to the speed of change.It is now clear that major disruption of the sort that was widely predicted is not likely in the period to 2040:It will happen,but not at the pace expected.We need a more differentiated approach to shifts in mobility behavior one that distinguishes behavior in urban areas from that in rural or suburban areas.A The automotive world is changing,but probably not how you were expecting A Importance of private vehicles in urban vs.rural/suburban areas,2023Share of total mileage driven by private vehicles by type of road%Source:Roland BergerNote:Data based on average across Germany,USA and ChinaHighways,country roads and smaller cities not relevant for urban mobility conceptsMetropolitan areas relevant for urban mobility conceptsDespite only accounting for a small share of total mobility need,changing mobility behavior in metropolitan areas is the focus of most disruptive forecasts90%10%Automotive Outlook 2040|7cities with major restrictions on vehicles,whereas several European cities have completely banned private cars from entering downtown areas.In the coming decade and a half,we do not expect to see any major change in the fact that suburban,rural and long-distance travel account for the vast majority of miles traveled by car.In Germany,for example,travel in large urban areas is around 35 percent by private vehicle and 20 percent by public transit,while in rural areas the split is 70 percent private vehicles to just five percent public transit.We expect the situation in Germany and elsewhere to remain largely constant in the period to 2040,with only a slight decline in private vehicle use in large urban areas.Globally,micromobility is not relevant in rural areas,nor are restrictions such as congestion charges,and consumers will continue to show a strong preference for private vehicle-based mobility.Automotive players would therefore be wrong to build their long-term strategies on the expectation of a sudden shift in overall mobility behavior.While automotive players must,of course,keep an eye on ongoing developments in mobility behavior,the more fundamental,prolonged changes in the automotive industry through 2040 will occur elsewhere as we discuss in the following chapter.B Demand for mobility,as reflected in the total number of miles traveled,is forecast to continue growing in most regions of the world at a rate of two to three percent a year in the period to 2040.The main drivers of this increase are economic and demographic development.Factors relating to changes in technology or society,such as more remote work or more online shopping,only have a minor impact on overall demand for mobility.In large urban areas,new modes of transportation such as urban air mobility and autonomous driving,plus the increasing penetration of micromobility(bicycles,e-bikes,electric scooters)and shared mobility services,will have a negative impact on vehicle usage over the coming decade and a half.However,the overall impact on vehicle sales will be minor.In the case of new modes of transportation,this is due to the small scale of these new offerings and the limited areas in which they operate.Micromobility will grow in terms of the number of trips made,yet our research shows that this type of mobility complements trips in private vehicles rather than replacing them.Regulation,such as congestion charges and no-car zones,will likely have a stronger impact on vehicle usage,but here the situation differs widely from city to city and region to region.The United States,for example,currently has no Source:Roland BergerB Many factors affect private vehicle usageKey drivers influencing private vehicle usage across urban,suburban and rural areasMicromobilityWill continue to grow quickly,driven by political support and strong customer demand.Will complement,not replace,private cars.Major regional differences will persistImpact on private vehicle usageMediumLowHighCar sharingFurther growth expected in urban areas,but profitability challenge limits scalability.Evidence suggests impact on motorization rates is limitedUrban air mobilityGradual rollout in selected large urban areas,but insufficient scale and geographical coverage to have a major impact on global vehicle salesAutonomous on-demand mobilitySpeed of adoption subject to great uncertainty.Availability likely to be limited to the largest urban areas.Often replaces other shared modes,e.g.conventional taxis and busesDowntown entry restrictionsWill potentially have a strong impact on vehicle usage in urban areas,but will only apply in specific cities and vary by global regionInfrastructure changesCould have a major impact on vehicle usage in urban areas,but rollout requires strong,sustained political will,which is only found in a limited number of citiesFour megatrends will shape the transformation ofthe industry through 2040.Their initials form the acronym PACE.Large urban areasSuburban/rural areasAutomotive Outlook 2040|98|Roland BergerIf,as we have seen,mobility behavior will not be the cause of major disruption in the industry,what is it that will trigger the transformation and shift in balance of power in the period to 2040?Which developments will shape the auto industry over the next decade and half?And where should automotive companies be focusing their resources in this ongoing marathon?To answer these questions,we carried out an in-depth analysis of current trends in the global automotive industry and their likely development through 2040.We draw on this analysis,in addition to insights from our global team of experts and extensive discussions with industry professionals and executives,in the discussion below.Our chief finding is that four key developments stand out as megatrends shaping the industry through 2040:The future will be PACE Polarized,Automated,Connected and Electrified.C 2.1/Polarized From globalization to regionalizationDifferent regions are set to develop in different directions and at different speeds in the marathon ahead.A range of factors is driving this variety:geopolitical developments,differences in regulation,technological differences,customer preferences and macroeconomic shifts.For example,China is on a trajectory from being the growth engine for European OEMs to being a largely fully electric vehicle market dominated by domestic players,while most of North America will remain an internal combustion engine(ICE)market for many years to come.As different regions diverge and develop at their own pace in the period to 2040,the industry will become more polarized.This stands in radical contrast to the wider trend towards globalization seen in previous decades.Four developments reshaping the auto industryC Driving forces Four developments shaping the auto industry through 2040Source:Roland BergerFrom globalization to regionalizationTowards increasing regionalization of markets between West and EastPolarizedPFrom human to artificial intelligenceIncreasing automation in driving and along the value chainAutomatedAFrom horsepower to terabytesData and software become key as cars turn into computers on wheelsConnectedCFrom ICE to EVsAdoption of EVs is following different trajectories across marketsElectrifiedEAutomotive Outlook 2040|11ecosystems,one dominated by the United States and the other by China.This will limit access to markets and drastically increase the complexity and cost of serving markets around the globe,as well as driving up prices for consumers.To remain competitive among such uncertainty,decision-makers in the automotive industry need to keep geopolitical considerations at the top of their agenda,strengthening their local-for-local strategies and carrying out continuous risk and resilience checks on their supply chains.E industry.For example,any rise in protectionist measures such as tariffs or export bans will impact the supply of critical raw materials and components,as well as bidirectional access to markets.The next decade and a half may bring local-for-local production regulations and a continuation of government subsidies,both of which would have strong implications for the setup of global value chains.Ultimately,we expect to see a shift away from globalization dominated by a single region and towards the emergence of different above-average market growth,but mostly for high value-for-money vehicles.D REGULATORY DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY WILL PERSIST,BUT WITH REGIONAL DIFFERENCESRegulators have pushed for a reduction in greenhouse gases,even if net zero targets are not likely to be reached as soon as planned.Behind these efforts is strong popular support and a desire on the part of governments to achieve competitive advantage for their industries.Industry has made clear commitments;however,the strength of efforts will contin