How Will the Smart Grid Impact Industry智能电网英文版_34页.pdf

1 ARC Advisory GroupHow Will the Smart Grid Impact Industry?Ideas to Ignite DiscussionAndy ChathaPresidentARC Advisory GroupAChathaARC2 ARC Advisory GroupAgendaWhat Characterizes a“Smart Grid”?How“Smart”is todays Grid?What will drive Smart Grid Growth?Smart Grid Applications impacting industry(In this presentation,a Utility means the same thing as an Electricity Board)3 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Metering and the Smart GridGeneratingPlant TransmissionSubstationDistribution SubstationDistribution SystemSafety Shutdown SystemProtective RelaysProtective RelaysUnmonitored DevicesDCSTransmission RTUs,SCADADistribution RTUs,SCADALittle AutomationSCADAGrid Control,Market AppsDistribution AppsMetersGrid Control CentersTransmission OptimizationAdvanced Metering Infrastructure(AMI)Smart Grid is much more than Smart Metering4 ARC Advisory GroupWhat Characterizes a Smart Grid?Enable Active Participation by CustomersAccommodate All Generation and Storage OptionsProvide Power Quality for the Digital EconomyOptimize Asset Utilization and Operate EfficientlyAnticipate and Respond to System DisturbancesOperate Resiliently Against Attacks and Natural DisastersEnable New Products,Services,and Markets5 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Grid ApplicationsAdvanced MeteringDistributed GenerationRenewable Generation Generation AggregationDistribution AutomationFault Detection/Isolation/Restoration(FDIR)Wide Area MonitoringEnergy AnalyticsEnergy StorageDemand ResponsePHEV/EV(Electric Vehicle)IntegrationSmart Home AppliancesNew Applications6 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Grid Enabling ServicesNetwork Communication Services Utility Internal Communication Metering Generation Management Grid/Transmission Management Distribution Management End User Customer Communications End User-to-Utility Internal End User Home Automation Building Automation Process/Factory AutomationMobility Services Device mobility Command/Control Interface mobility PHEV/EV(Electric Vehicle)MobilitySecurity ServicesSmart Grid Network has the potential to become as powerful as the Internet7 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Grid Totally Changes the Power BusinessSystem Operations Operation/Management Distribution Operation ManagementBusiness Operations Customer Service Billing Outage Management Field Workforce Management Load Forecasting Generation and Transmission Planning Rate Design8 ARC Advisory GroupHow“smart”is Todays Power Grid?In the US,Todays Grid ALREADY HAS many attributes of tomorrows Smart Grid,BUTonly WITHIN PARTS OF THE UTLITY,and not extended to most utility customers.9 ARC Advisory GroupHow“smart”is Todays Power Grid?Enable Active Participation by Customers Yes Major industrials(co-generators)Independent Power Producers(IPPs)No Commercial Customers Residential CustomersAccommodate All Generation and Storage Options Generation Yes Utility-scale options without transmission constraints No Medium,Small-scale,or sites that require transmission Storage Yes Utility-scale(pumped hydro,large batteries)No Medium,small scale options N/A Customer storage solutions10 ARC Advisory GroupDimensions of Smart Grid AnalysisApplications MANY!Customer Segments Industrial,Commercial,ResidentialRegulations National,State,Local,Commercial,TechnicalEnabling Services Communication,Security,Mobility,StandardsOrganizations Utilities IOUs,Municipals,Agencies,Coops,State Enterprises Regulators National(many),state,local Suppliers Equipment,Systems,Services,Financial ServicesTime Horizon Short Term(1-5 years),Medium Term(5-10 Years),Long Term(10 years)11 ARC Advisory GroupWhat will Drive Smart Grid Growth?Every use of the word cost requires an adjective.Every Smart Grid forecast requires a regional context.NA,EU,and BRIC countries will have very different utility business conditions.China is Aggressively Building its Power Infrastructure12 ARC Advisory GroupPresent Economic ClimateNPV of Smart Grid is now easier because half of it is going to be paid for by the government.US Utility CIO Sovereign debt crisis=likely no more stimulus spending(EU,NA)Ratepayers will be harder to convince Regulators will demand ROIGlobal recession causes demand decrease NA,EU questionable date for return to 2008 load peaks(2011,2012,later?)Asia Higher historical growth rates.Faster return to peak loads.Commodity price inflation,gas price deflationBest Smart Grid Applications for the NA business climate?Demand Response Distribution Automation Energy Storage These improve both energy efficiency and reliability 13 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Meters as Residential Gateways?14 ARC Advisory GroupSmart MetersStimulus funding lowers ROI hurdlesSmart Meters are the enabler for time-of-use tariffs Meter communication interfaces will be obsolete when commissioned(Standards are still evolving)They will become totally obsolete during meter operating lifeResidential and C&I Demand Response will certainly not use the meter interfaces,but rather broadband Internet Time-of-use tariff is not=Real-Time Pricing Residential exposure to real-time pricing is an analyst fantasy Political process will not expose consumers to price risk from inelastic markets Likely model is mobile phone rate structuresSmart Meters are Smart Policy,but they are not a Smart Grid15 ARC Advisory GroupNew TransmissionNew transmission is a Gordian knot in North AmericaInteraction of new transmission and power prices Is not always welcomed Who benefits and who pays?Regional markets vs.national marketsVs.China Urbanization Primary energy transition to nuclear,renewable16 ARC Advisory GroupWhy Electric Markets Dont Work“Well”Some of the reasons are:Electric markets have huge barriers to entry/exit Generating plants have a long lifespan Generating plants are difficult to re-locate Product storage capacity is near zero Consumers do not receive price signals Market is highly inelastic Suppliers cannot respond to high spot prices Limited generation capacity Limited transmission capacity Time horizon mismatch inhibits additional supply Market(1 day)vs.Supplier(40-50 years)Market price rises or falls to regulatory limits$1000/MWH Depending on the time and place 17 ARC Advisory GroupDemand ResponseA“level playing field”for Demand Response means.DR cost/benefit would be comparable with Residential Rate structures would be neutral with respect to new peaking capacity vs.Demand ResponseAggregators address only simple Demand Response cases They cannot address complex manufacturing sites that require real-time tradeoffsIndustry:Watch this space!18 ARC Advisory GroupStructures for Electric Demand ResponseIndustrial SiteIndustrial SiteIndustrial SiteIndustrial SiteAggregatorAggregatorUtilityUtilityElectric Market19 ARC Advisory GroupEnergy Storage for Industrial/CommercialWithout storage Higher peak demand More difficult to integrate renewable generation Grid is less stableWith storage Consumption is shifted to off-peak periods Reduces demand and critical-peak charges Adds grid stability20 ARC Advisory GroupEnergy StorageEnergy storage is a“no brainer”ROI calculation.not to say it will happen.Greater storage also provides systemic benefits,like greater stability.Utilities,commercial,and industrial segments can participateIndustry:Watch this space!101520253035404550Demand(GW)21 ARC Advisory GroupElectric Power Landscape in IndiaDemand for electric power outstrips supplyManufacturing companies constructing captive power plants to meet in-house demand and sell the available excess power Present generating capacity around 150 GWAccording to ARC analysis,India needs to add another 175 200 GW in the next ten yearsAround 30,000 MW of generating capacity currently tied to old plants which need renovationSome projections for the next decade:Wind power-20,000 MW Solar power 20,000 MW Nuclear Power 20,000 MW 22 ARC Advisory GroupCaptive Power Plants Provide 20%of New Generating Capacity in India23 ARC Advisory GroupPower Losses are a Global Concern Electricity losses are a major utility concern in ALL countriesSource:World Bank24 ARC Advisory GroupSmart Grid is on the HorizonSmart Grid is changing:How we generate electricityWhere we generate electricityHow we distribute electricityHow we meet peak demandHow we store electricityHow we power our carsHow we price electricityHow we go greenSmart Grid will empower the customerThank You!For more information,contact AchathaARCor visit ARC Advisory Group at26 ARC Advisory GroupIndia EnvironmentPower ShortageHigh level of TheftCaptive Generation CapabilityPoor ReliabilityCoal is the main fuel27 ARC Advisory GroupHow“smart”is Todays Power Grid?Enable New Products,Services,and Markets Customer-Utility interaction is minimal Rate structures are far from optimalProvide Power Quality for the Digital Economy Utilities recognize power quality as an issue Power quality metrics are developedOptimize Asset Utilization and Operate EfficientlyAnticipate and Respond to System DisturbancesOperate Resiliently Against Attacks and Natural Disasters Generation Dispatch,Transmission are highly optimized Distribution system has minimal visibility,automation Customer interaction is very minimal28 ARC Advisory GroupElectric MarketsElectric Market participation is complexMarkets were designed for utility participationSmart Grid adoption should greatly enlarge participation in marketsAnalogies to the future markets:Financial markets Internet appliance technologyIndustry:Watch this space!29 ARC Advisory GroupElectric Utilities as a Vast Untapped Channel for Consumer Electronics?Dedicated function in-home devices?No.No.And again,no way.Are electric utilities CE marketeers?No.No.And again,no way.How hard can CE success really be?Hard.Very hard.OR is this demand driven by“Obligation to serve”Sub-prime customers in service area Note:The iPhone does not existbecause of an obligation to serve 30 ARC Advisory GroupMarket Prices Do Not Prevent Market ConstraintsISO New England-Final Hourly Regulation Clearing Prices($MWh),200931 ARC Advisory GroupIndustry Deals only with UtilityUtility interfaces to market This is the normal situationAdvantages:Simplest for the customerDisadvantages Exposure to C&I rates Exposure to Critical Peak Prices Limited demand response=lost revenue opportunityIndustrial SiteUtilityElectric Market32 ARC Advisory GroupAggregator Intermediates with MarketAggregator intermediates with electric market This is a recent developmentAdvantages:Broader participation in demand response Aggregation across multiple electric markets Aggregator bears market risk,and sometimes capital costDisadvantages Industrial gets only part of the resulting value streamIndustrial SiteAggregatorElectric Market33 ARC Advisory GroupUtility Employs Aggregator Utility uses aggregator to market and manage their Demand Response program This is uncommon,but may become a trend Utilities are not great marketeersAdvantages:Usually easier than dealing with a utility Aggregator bears market risk,and sometimes capital costDisadvantages Deals with only a single electric utility Industrial gets only part of the resulting value streamIndustrial SiteAggregatorElectric MarketUtility34 ARC Advisory GroupIndustrial Interfaces Directly to MarketIndustrial Site“bypasses”utility and deals directly with electric market At present only sites with large co-gen capacities do this Purchase agreement with utility also needed May be a long term trend,as“Smart Grid”technologies simplify participationAdvantages:Industrial can optimize the resulting revenue stream and coordinate with manufacturing operations No revenue sharingDisadvantages Complex market interaction Exposure to market risk Must manage electric demand as part of manufacturing operationsIndustrial SiteElectric Market