2024年世界贸易报告.pdf

WORLD TRADE REPORT 2024Trade and inclusivenessHow to make trade work for allWhat is the World Trade Report?The World Trade Report is an annual publication that aims to deepen understanding about trends in trade,trade policy issues and the multilateral trading system.What is the 2024 Report about?The 2024 World Trade Report explores the complex interlinkages between trade and inclusiveness across and within economies,and discusses how trade policies need to be complemented by appropriate domestic policies to make the benefits of trade more inclusive.Find out moreWebsite:www.wto.orgGeneral enquiries:enquirieswto.orgTel:[phone]-TRADE AND INCLUSIVENESS:HOW TO MAKE TRADE WORK FOR ALLCONTENTSAcknowledgements and Disclaimer.2Abbreviations.4Foreword by the WTO Director-General.6Executive summary.8Chapter A.Introduction.18Chapter B.Trade and income convergence.301.Globalization has led to income convergence,but some economies have been left behind.322.How did the integration of low-and middle-income economies into global markets boost income convergence?.353.Why have some developing economies gained little from globalization?.404.Future opportunities for economic convergence lie in strategies to keep trade open and supported by complementary policies .555.Conclusions.63Chapter C.Trade and inclusiveness within economies.661.Trade raises overall incomes and reduces poverty without necessarily increasing inequality.682.Most people gain from trade but some suffer losses.713.Fairer trade policies and domestic complementary policies are crucial to make trade more inclusive.864.Inclusive trade is set to undergo transformation amid emerging global trends.915.Conclusions.94Chapter D.Inclusive trade and international cooperation.961.Ensuring that the WTO leaves no economy behind.982.Making the WTO and trade more inclusive for people and firms.1183.Promoting inclusive development through enhanced international cooperation.1244.Conclusions.135Chapter E.Conclusions.138Opinion piecesLandry Sign,“Leveraging trade to foster a more inclusive digital economy in Africa”.58Stefanie Walter,“The complex interplay between inequality and attitudes about globalization”.90Giovanni Maggi,“Soft rules and the informational role of the WTO”.112Emanuel Ornelas,“Can regional and multilateral trade liberalization work in tandem?”.127Alonso Alfaro Urea,Benjamin Faber,Cecile Gaubert,Isabela Manelici,Jos Pablo Vsquez,“The promise and pitfalls of responsible sourcing in global value chains”.133Bibliography.141-2-WORLD TRADE REPORT 2024ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe World Trade Report 2024 was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Johanna Hill,WTO Deputy Director-General,and Ralph Ossa,Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division.Director-General Ngozi Okonjo Iweala,Chief of Staff Bright Okogu and Trineesh Biswas from the Office of the Director-General provided valuable advice and guidance.The report was coordinated by Jose-Antonio Monteiro and Roberta Piermartini.Preparation of the chapters was led by Marc Bacchetta,John Hancock,Stela Rubnov and Victor Stolzenburg.The main authors of the report are Marc Bacchetta,Eddy Bekkers,Michael Blanga-Gubbay,John Hancock,Kathryn Lundquist,Gabrielle Marceau,Jos-Antonio Monteiro,Roberta Piermartini,Yves Renouf,Stela Rubnov,Victor Stolzenburg and Ankai Xu.Contributions were also provided by Marc Auboin,Graham Cook,Adrian Bourqui Costa,Barbara DAndrea,Florian Eberth,Emmanuelle Ganne,Jenya Grigorova,Nicolas Grimblatt,Tomasz Gonciarz,Dolores Halloran,Simon Hess,Bernard Kuiten,Tho Mbise,Wolf Meier-Ewert,Juan Pablo Moya Hoyos,Taufiqur Rahman,Daria Shatskova,Monia Snoussi-Mimouni,Gerard Pealosa,Thomas Verbeet,Claude Trolliet and the Cotton team of the Agriculture and Commodities Division.Valuable research assistance was provided by Uzochukwu Alutu,Aditya Bhandari,Waleed Hassan,Lee Humphreys,Hryhorii Kalachyhin,Jeffrey Liu,Tinotenda Mataire,Jil Mssler,Lema Rahimi,Alisha Saini,Fulvio Silvy,Aaron Tang,Yu Wang and Xinbei Zhou.The following divisions in the WTO Secretariat provided valuable comments on drafts of the report:Agriculture and Commodities Division(Dixit Diwakar,Jonathan Hepburn,Cdric Pene),Development Division(Shraddha Gautam,Taufiqur Rahman,Daria Shatskova),Legal Affairs Division(Jorge Castro,Graham Cook,Sybilla Fries,Jenya Grigorova,Juan Pablo Moya Hoyos,Gerard Penalosa),Intellectual Property,Government Procurement and Competition Division(Anna Caroline Mller,Antony Taubman),Trade in Services and Investment Division(Pamela Apaza Lanyi,Elena Bertola,Antonia Carzaniga,Xiaolin Chai,Markus Jelitto,Juan Marchetti,Martin Roy),Trade and Environment Division(Rainer Lanz,Erik Wijkstrom),Rules Division(Seref Gokay Coskun,Clarisse Morgan)and Vision and Strategy(Willy Alfaro).Opinion pieces were provided by Alonso Alfaro Urea(Universidad de Costa Rica),Benjamin Faber(University of California,Berkeley),Cecile Gaubert(University of California,Berkeley),Giovanni Maggi(Yale University),Isabela Manelici(London School of Economics),Emanuel Ornelas(Sao Paulo School of Economics),Landry Sign(Brookings Institution),Jos Pablo Vsquez(London School of Economics)and Stefanie Walter(University of Zurich).In coordination with Andreas Sennekamp of the Institute for Training and Technical Cooperation Division,supported by Shraddha Gautam,contributions were also received from the following WTO Chairs:Azam Chaudhry,Nida Jamil and Theresa Thompson Chaudhry(Lahore School of Economics),Nguyen Huong Giang and Pham Thi Cam Anh(Foreign Trade University),and Boopen Seetanah and Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur(University of Mauritius).The following individuals from outside the WTO Secretariat provided useful comments during the initial drafting stage of the report:David Atkin,Kyle Bagwell,Emily J.Blanchard,Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg,Douglas Irwin,Rka Juhsz,Giovanni Maggi,Nina Pavcnik,Robert W.Staiger,Claudia Steinwender and Daniel Trefler.The text production of the report was managed by Anne Lescure and Diana Dent of the Economic Research and Statistics Division.The production of the report was managed by Anthony Martin and Helen Swain of the Information and External Relations Division.William Shaw and Helen Swain edited the report.Gratitude is also due to the translators in the Languages,Documentation and Information Management Division for the high quality of their work.-3-TRADE AND INCLUSIVENESS:HOW TO MAKE TRADE WORK FOR ALLDISCLAIMERThe World Trade Report has been prepared under the responsibility of the WTO Secretariat.It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and it is without prejudice to their rights and obligations under the WTO agreements.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein are not intended to provide any authoritative or legal interpretation of provisions of the WTO agreements and shall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications.The terms and illustrations used in this publication do not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundaries of any territory.The opinion pieces written by the external contributors are the sole responsibility of their respective authors.-4-ABBREVIATIONSAGOA African Growth and Opportunity ActAI artificial intelligenceEIF Enhanced Integrated FrameworkFAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsFDI foreign direct investmentGATS General Agreement on Trade in ServicesGATT General Agreement on Tariffs and TradeGDP gross domestic productGPA Agreement on Government ProcurementGSP Generalized System of PreferencesGVC global value chainICT information and communications technologyIEA International Energy AgencyIEC International Electrotechnical CommissionIFC International Finance CorporationIFD Investment Facilitation for DevelopmentILO International Labour OrganizationIMF International Monetary FundIP intellectual propertyISO International Organization for StandardizationIT information technologyITU International Telecommunication UnionLDC least-developed countryMFN most-favoured nationMNE multinational enterpriseMSME micro,small and medium-sized enterpriseNFTC national trade facilitation committeeNTM non-tariff measurePPP purchasing power parityOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentR&D research and developmentRS responsible sourcingRTA regional trade agreementS&DT special and differential treatmentSCM subsidies and countervailing measuresSEZ special economic zoneSOE state-owned enterpriseSPS sanitary and phytosanitarySTDF Standards and Trade Development FacilitySVE small,vulnerable economyTBT technical barriers to trade-5-TRADE AND INCLUSIVENESS:HOW TO MAKE TRADE WORK FOR ALLTFA WTO Trade Facilitation AgreementTRIMs Trade-Related Investment MeasuresTRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property RightsUN United NationsUNCTAD UN Trade and DevelopmentUNEP UN Environment ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUN-ESCAP UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the PacificWHO World Health OrganizationWIPO World Intellectual Property OrganizationWOAH World Organisation for Animal HealthWTO World Trade Organization-6-FOREWORD BY THE WTO DIRECTOR-GENERALThe mission of the World Trade Organization,as set out in the preamble to its founding Marrakesh Agreement,is to use trade as a means to raise living standards,create jobs and promote sustainable development.As we mark the WTOs 30th anniversary,it is clear that members have used the open and predictable global economy anchored in WTO rules and norms to accelerate growth and development,with enormous positive impacts for human well-being.At the same time,many people and places have not shared adequately in these gains.This years edition of the World Trade Report,titled“Trade and Inclusiveness:How to make trade work for all”,looks at how the world has been transformed through trade and at how we can use trade and other policies to improve the lives and livelihoods of people who remain on the margins of the global economy.Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the report is its reaffirmation of trades transformative role in reducing poverty and creating shared prosperity contrary to the currently fashionable notion that trade,and institutions like the WTO,have not been good for poverty or for poor countries,and are creating a more unequal world.But the second biggest takeaway is that there is much more we can do to make trade and the WTO work better for economies and people left behind during the past 30 years of globalization.The report describes how,over the past three decades,open global markets,underpinned by the WTO,gave rise to a boom in trade,enabling the productivity gains that came with greater specialization,scale and competition.Lower-priced imports lifted household purchasing power,especially at the bottom of the income distribution.As more developing economies reformed at home and tapped into external demand for goods and services,their share in global trade increased sharply.With strong income growth in low-and middle-income economies,the proportion of their populations living in extreme poverty fell from 40 per cent in 1995 to under 11 per cent in 2022.China was only part of this story:take it out of the equation,and the poverty rate in low-and middle-income economies declined from 36 per cent in 1996 to under 14 per cent in 2022.Never before have the living conditions and prospects of so many people improved so rapidly.During this period,for the first time since the Industrial Revolution two centuries earlier,poor countries began to narrow the per capita income gap with rich ones until the COVID-19 pandemic halted this convergence by hitting the weakest economies hardest.Analysis showcased in this report shows that trade policy reforms played an important role in this growth story.Trade cost reductions increased global real GDP by 6.8 per cent between 1995 and 2020 and by 33 per cent in low-income economies.Economies that took on more reform and liberalization commitments as part of their WTO accession negotiations saw a 1.5 percentage point boost to their annual growth rates,and also attracted more capital investment.And yet many poor countries,particularly in Africa,Latin America and the Middle East,remained on the margins of global trade,and were lagging behind on income convergence even before the pandemic.-7-TRADE AND INCLUSIVENESS:HOW TO MAKE TRADE WORK FOR ALLFOREWORD BY THE WTO DIRECTOR-GENERALto close the digital divide,with investments in digital connectivity,infrastructure and digital skills,as well as in creating an enabling legal and regulatory environment.More broadly,countries need to act to ensure that as many of their citizens as possible can benefit from the opportunities created by open and rules-based international markets or are,at least,cushioned against the downsides of economic change,whether these are due to technological change or to increased import competition.This means investing in education and infrastructure,maintaining an appropriate competitive environment,implementing effective adjustment and redistribution policies including active and passive labour market support,avoiding a race to the bottom on taxation,and so forth.The report makes the case that enhanced coherence across international organizations would magnify their collective impact on inclusiveness.At the WTO,we recognize these interlinkages,and have been working with partner international organizations to this end.For instance,the WTO and the World Bank have launched the“Digital Trade for Africa”project to support African economies efforts to build the necessary hard and soft infrastructure to take advantage of digital trade opportunities.The WTO and the International Trade Centre have launched a US$50 million global fund for women exporters in the digital economy.Further collaborative efforts could range from simple information exchanges to formal partnerships.I hope that readers and especially,policymakers will take to heart the lessons from this report.Maintaining open and predictable rules-based trade should be part of any countrys path to greater inclusiveness.There is no substitute for complementary domestic policies:to make trade work for more people,the wider economy needs to work for everyone.And we need strong and renewed political support for multilateral cooperation to make trade work for all.Dr Ngozi Okonjo-IwealaDirector-GeneralIn some rich countries,many people felt left behind,unable to benefit from new opportunities and their frustration fuelled a political backlash against international trade.This report looks in detail at the various factors that have held back individuals,firms and economies from capitalizing on,and adjusting to,international trade.These range from high trade costs that constrain countries access to foreign markets or cheap inputs,to the mobility and information frictions,skill mismatches and limited access to finance tha