Unit-4--A-Recipe-for-Inflation-解决粮价飞涨的良方-——《21世纪研究生英语教材阅读教程》下册.doc

Unit 4 A Recipe for Inflation 解决粮价飞涨的良方
In Pakistan, the prohibitive price of tea became an election issue; Mexican housewives have rioted to protest the shortage of affordable tortilla; Swaziland is facing famine, even as it exports cassava to feed the rich world’s hunger for biofuel.
1． 在巴基斯坦，茶叶的限制性价格成了一项选举时的议题；墨西哥的家庭主妇们因买得起的玉米面饼短缺而发起声势浩大的抗议示威；尽管斯威士兰为满足发达国家对于生物燃料的需求而出口木薯，该国自身却正面临着饥馑。
Rising agricultural inflation, or “agflation”, is a global phenomenon that touches everyone, and almost every day it seems to intensify. This week, the price of prime spring wheat rose by 25 per cent on the American exchanges, while Russia and Kazakhstan announced fresh curbs on exports to protect domestic supplies. On the Chicago Board of Trade, the price of wheat has hit record highs of more than $12 a bushel. Since 2004 world food prices have doubled, and over the past year alone agricultural prices are up by about 50 per cent.
2． 不断升级的农产品价格暴涨，或曰“农产品价格飞涨”，是一个全球性的现象，它涉及每一个人，而且，这种局面似乎日趋紧张。本周，美国农产品交易所主要的春小麦期货价格上涨了25％，而俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦则宣布采取新的限制出口的措施以保护国内的供应。美国芝加哥期货交易所的小麦价格已达到了历史新高，超过了每蒲式耳12美元。自2004年以来，世界粮食价格已经翻了一番，仅去年一年，农产品价格就上涨了约50％。
For those in the developing world who spend their money on food and little else, this is a matter of life and death. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation says the rising price of cereals such as wheat and maize are a “major global concern”.
3． 对于发展中国家那些把钱主要用于购买粮食而很少有钱花费在其他方面的人来讲，这是一个关乎生死存亡的问题。联合国粮食和农业组织宣称，像小麦和玉米这样的谷物价格的上涨是一个“全球担心的大问题”。
In the West, the damage caused by increases in the price of food is damped by the costs of transporting and refining it into finished products, and by the general prosperity of consumers. Hard-pressed British farmers even regard current trends as a bonus. The large supermarket chains and food processors are also doing their best to resist the great food inflation. But agflation is making the lives of policy makers more difficult and is hitting household budgets.
4． 在西方，粮价上涨造成的损失被粮食的运输和加工成本以及消费者普遍的富裕所冲淡。境况困窘的英国农民甚至认为目前的趋势是一种意外的礼物。大型超市连锁店和食品加工商也在尽最大努力抵御粮价的飞涨。但是农产品价格的飞涨确实让政策制定者的日子更难过了，并且也影响着居民的家庭预算。
Yesterday’s “producer price” figures in the United States confirmed the clear inflationary problem faced in factories and food processing plants – a leading indicator of what will soon be seen in the shops. Over the past 12 months, producer prices rose 7.4 percent, the fastest pace since October 1981 Food prices climbed 1.7 per cent, the most since October 2004. Crude food prices – that is, the input costs faced by US suppliers – increased 2.7 per cent. The equivalent figures in the UK reported recently were even more alarming: food prices up 8.5 per cent and input food costs up by between 14.9 per cent (imports) and 36 per cent (home grown) on the year.
5． 昨天公布的美国“生产者价格”数据证实了工厂和食品加工场所面临的明显的粮价飞涨问题—这是商店商品价格即将上涨的主要风向标。在过去的12个月里，生产价格上涨了7.4％，是自1981年10月以来最大幅度的上涨。食品价格攀升了1.7％，是自2004年10月以来最大的涨幅。未加工的粮食价格—即美国供应商的粮食购入成本—上涨了2.7％。英国最近公布的相应数据更令人震惊：食品价格上涨了8.5％，而粮食购入成本本年度的涨幅在14.9％(进口)到36％(国产)之间。
Commodity price increases tend to feed on themselves, if that’s an appropriate expression. Oil-price hikes raise the cost of hauling crops from continent to continent, especially some of the higher-end “cash crops” the West has developed a taste for; mange-tout嫩豌豆flown in from east Africa is bound to become more pricey as the cost of aviation fuel climbs, even if the underlying production conditions don’t change. Higher grain prices tend to push the cost of rearing livestock up. And higher oil prices incentivize farmers to switch to biofuel crops, often at the behest of nervous governments worried about the security of their energy supplies.
6． 商品价格的上涨往往具有相互依赖的“链式”反应，如果这种说法合适的话。石油价格的节节攀升提高了洲际间运输粮食一尤其是西方人喜欢的一些高端的“商品作物”一的成本；随着航空燃料价格的攀升，即便基本的农业生产的条件不变，空运自非洲东部的菜豆的价格势必更高。更高的谷物价格往往会使家畜饲养成本提高。而且更高的石油价格会刺激农民转而种植生物燃料作物一往往是在对本国能源供应感到担忧的那些神经质的政府的要求之下。
Sharply escalating bills at the supermarket checkout fall into the category economists call “high visibility inflation”. The increases themselves may not be so large in relation to the earnings of those affected, but they make people feel poorer and make them sceptical about official claims about subdued inflation. Thus they tend to increase inflationary expectations, and pay demands.
7． 超市收款处钱数急剧提高的结算单正是反映了经济学家所称的“高可见度通货膨胀”。价格增长本身也许和那些受到影响的人们的收入没有太大的关系，但确实让人们感觉到更加贫困，而且使他们开始怀疑政府所宣称的对通货膨胀的抑制是否属实。因此，他们往往以为通货膨胀会加剧，也会要求提高他们的薪金。
Normally the West’s central banks would nudge interest rates higher to deal with such pressures, but the fragile state of the world’s leading economies makes such action tricky. Some – such as the US Fed – have implicitly favoured a little more inflation over recession. Hence higher inflation co-exists with slowing or stagnant economies. Rising food prices are putting the “agflation” into “stagflation”. How has it come about?
8． 通常西方国家的中央银行会稍微提高利率以应付这些压力，但是世界主要经济体脆弱的状况往往使这种措施的效果难以预料。一些中央银行一比如美联储一实际上暗中希望在经济衰退期问通货膨胀的程度更大一点。因此，更高的通货膨胀和缓慢的或是停滞的经济增长并存。上涨的食品价格把“农产品价格飞涨”转变成了“滞胀”。这一切到底是怎么发生的呢?
Mercifully, some of it is down to temporary factors: freakishly bad weather in east Asia, like the floods endured in the North of England and West Country last year, will have a relatively temporary effect, though the spikes in some prices look severe.
9． 幸运的是，有些情况和如下的一些暂时的因素相关：比如，东亚多变的坏天气一就像去年英格兰北部和西部乡村遭受的洪灾一样一会产生相对暂时性的影响，尽管有些价格的急剧上涨形势看起来非常严峻。
China has been badly affected by cold and rain, pushing inflation to an 11-year high of 7.1 per cent. Tomato prices are up by 138 per cent and pork is 67 per cent more expensive. Reports yesterday that China’s food producing regions to the north were suffering from drought drove world soya prices up again. India said yesterday that it may import two million tonnes of grain after dry weather cut the harvest. Floods in Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi have had a devastating impact.
10． 中国遭受了严重的寒冷天气和雨水灾害的影响，使通货膨胀达到了11年来的最高值7．1％。西红柿价格增长了138％，猪肉价格贵了67％。昨天中国北方粮食主产区遭受干旱的报道使得世界大豆价格又一次上涨。印度昨天宣布，在干旱的天气降低了收成之后，印度可能将进口200万吨谷物。莫桑比克、赞比亚和马拉维的洪灾已经产生了毁灭性的影响。
All these situations should improve. The world should also be able to count on an end to the tensions in Kenya that have crippled her output of tea and cash crops. In the case of Zimbabwe, a historically important source of food has long been stymied by President Robert Mugabe’s eccentric polices. These, too, may pass.
11． 所有这些情况都应改善。整个世界还应当有望看到肯尼亚紧张局势的结束一这种紧张局势已经损害了它的茶叶和商品作物的产量。至于津巴布韦，该国一种传统的重要食物来源长期以来一直遭受着总统罗伯特·穆加贝偏执政策的抑制。这一切也都会过去。
The immediate outlook – for the next year or so – is likely to stay gloomy, though, because of the low level of world food stocks. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation said that these are at record lows, and any attempt to rebuild them will tend to keep food prices elevated. World wheat stocks stand at about 157 million tonnes, against more than 200 million tonnes in 2003. US wheat stocks are projected to fall to their lowest levels in 60 years by May. Speculators have noticed these movements and have, unhelpfully, moved in on “soft commodities” as other high yielding investment opportunities have dried up.
12． 不过，展望未来的一两年，形势很有可能是令人沮丧的，这是因为世界粮食储备的低水平。联合国粮农组织宣称粮食储备处在前所未有的低水平，而任何试图重建粮食储备的企图都将使食品价格持续上升。世界小麦储备保持在大约1．57亿吨，而2003年是2亿多吨。预计到5月份，美国小麦储备将降到60年来的最低水平。由于其他高收益的投资机会枯竭，投机者们已经注意到了这些动向，而且开始涉足“软商品”，这显然对整个形势无益。
But even if crops and reserves recover, there are more worrying, long- term influences at work that herald an era of permanently dearer food. Most politically controversial is the diversion of crops to biofuel production. The White House has been the most aggressive in its promotion of bio crops, but others, such as the European Union, have also set ambitious targets for the new technology. US production of ethanol from corn has gone from 1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to 5 billion in 2006. President George Bush has set an interim target of 35 billion gallons for 2017 on the way to the administration’s ultimate goal of 60 billion by 2030. Brazil and Indonesia are accused by their critics of sacrificing food and biodiversity to bio-ethanol and bio-diesel. Should we grow our biofuel crops in verifiable East Anglia or more efficient South America?
13． 但是，即便农作物产量和粮食储备能够恢复，还存在着更多令人担忧的长期的影响，它昭示一个食物价格将永远日趋昂贵的时代的来临。从政治角度上看，最有争议的做法就是从农作物生产转向生物燃料的生产。白宫在促进生物燃料作物方面敢作敢为，但是其他国家的政府或机构，比如欧盟，也为促进该新技术而确定了野心勃勃的目标。美国用玉米生产出的乙醇从2000年的16亿加仑增加到了2006年的50亿加仑。布什总统已经确定了到2017年生产350亿加仑乙醇的中期目标，直到实现政府到2030年生产600亿加仑的最终目标。巴西和印度尼西亚的批评家指责政府为了获得生物乙醇和生物柴油而牺牲了粮食生产和生物多样性。我们是否应该在产量可核实的英格兰东部地区或效率更高的南美洲种植生物燃料作物?
Second, third and fourth-generation biofuels have a much greener impact, but, despite sharply diverging claims, there is little doubt that current biofuel policy is affecting food prices to some extent. Climate change is another unknowable quantity that could transform everything for the worse. Teeming Bangladesh will perhaps be the most notable loser, an impact exacerbated by rising sea levels. A few nations – Argentina, Bolivia, South Africa – will benefit from higher food prices because of the way their economies are structured.
14． 第二、三、四代生物燃料会更加环保但是，尽管有非常尖锐的分歧意见，几乎毫无疑问的是，目前的生物燃料政策正在对食物的价格造成一定程度的影响。气候变化是另外一个不可知的变量，它可能使所有情况变得更糟。人口众多的孟加拉国也许会因不断上升的海平面而成为最显著的损失者。而只有几个国家一如阿根廷、玻利维亚和南非一会因其经济结构而从更高的食品价格中受益。
The obvious move the world’s governments could make to alleviate the pain of higher prices seems as distant as ever. The World Trade Organisation’s stalled Doha round of trade negotiations could radically improve the workings of the world’s food markets, but there is still little sign of them reaching a consummation before November’s US elections, at which point a new administration will stall them for many more months.
15． 世界各国政府可以采取的旨在减轻较高物价带来的痛苦的明显措施似乎和以往一样遥遥无期。世贸组织被延迟的多哈回合的贸易谈判可以从根本上改善世界粮食市场的运行，但是，在美国大选之前，多哈贸易谈判仍没有多少获得圆满成功的迹象，而大选以后新一届的美国政府又会使谈判延迟数月。
Genetically modified crops are another politically loaded option to boost agricultural productivity massively; population control another way of meeting the challenge. Demographics biotechnology and the climate will all profoundly affect the number of people in the world with enough food in their bellies and the cost of our weekly shop. But politics, one way or another, could do an awful lot to alleviate the economic and human costs of agflation.
16． 转基因作物是另一种有政治意图的大规模提高农业生产力的选择；控制人口增长是另一个应对挑战的途径。人口统计、生物技术和气候因素都会深刻地影响到世界范围内有足够粮食的人口的数目和我们每周的购物支出。但是，在降低因农产品价格飞涨所造成的经济和生命损失方面，政治可以通过这样那样的途径起到非常大的作用。