11管理经济学基础.pptx

长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民1管理经济学基础管理经济学基础Foundations of Microeconomics杨瑞辉杨瑞辉Leslie Young长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民2亚当亚当斯密，斯密，国富论国富论（1776年）年）Adam Smith:The Wealth of Nations(1776):每个人都在力图应用他的资本，来使其产生品能得到最大的价值。一般地说，他并不企图增进公共福利，也不知道他所增进的公共福利为多少。他所追求的仅仅是他个人的安乐，仅仅是他个人的利益。在这样做时，有一只看不见的手引导他去促进一种目标，而这种目标决不是他所追求的东西。由于追逐自己的利益，他经常促进了社会利益，其效果要比他真正想促进社会利益时所得到的效果大。By directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of greatest value he intends only his own gain,and he is in this,as in many other cases,led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.司马迁，司马迁，史记史记之之货殖列传货殖列传（公元前（公元前145年公元前年公元前87年）年）Sima Qian,Records of the Historian,the Biographies of the Money Makers(145-86 B.C.)故待农而食之，虞而出之，工而成之,商而通之。此宁有政教发征期会哉？人各任其能，竭其力，以得所欲。故物贱之征贵，贵之征贱，各劝其业，乐其事，若水之趋下，日夜无休时，不召而自来，不求而民出之。岂非道之所符，而自然之验邪？There must be farmers to produce food,men to extract the wealth of mountains and marshes,artisans to process these things and merchants to circulate them.There is no need to wait for government orders:each man will play his part,doing his best to get what he desires.So cheap goods will go where they will fetch more,while expensive goods will make men search for cheap ones.When all work willingly at their trades,just as water flows ceaselessly downhill day and night,things will appear unsought and people will produce them without being asked.For clearly this accords with the Way and is in keeping with nature.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民3最早的工业革命：中国宋朝（最早的工业革命：中国宋朝（9601279年）年）The Zeroth Industrial Revolution:Sung China(960-1279)12世纪时便拥有31250英里长的航道和运河31,250 miles of navigable waterways and canals in 12th century12世纪拥有1.25亿人口，其中20%为城镇人口Population of 125 million in 12th century,20%urban世界最早的大规模机械化工业：水力纺车Worlds first large-scale mechanized industry:water-driven spinning machines.政府垄断矿业、铁器、盐、丝绸、陶器、纸、以及酒的生产Government monopolized production in mining,iron,salt,silk,ceramics,paper,alcoholic beverages.政府收入大部分来源于国家的产品和商品税，而非农业税More government income from state production and commodity taxes than from agricultural levies通过考试孔子及儒家著作选拔任用官员，根据品行升迁，通过官员之间的相互制衡来防止腐败Officials selected by examinations in Confucian classics,promoted on merit,checks and balances against corruption官僚体制支撑着整个商业的运行Businesses run by bureaucrats!长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民4关于中国经济Economy of China为什么会成功？Why did it succeed?为什么没有能够实现现代化Why did it fail to modernize?今天面临的挑战是什么？What are the challenges today?长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民5五大朝代每个都为中国带来了政治统一、国泰民安、经济增长和文五大朝代每个都为中国带来了政治统一、国泰民安、经济增长和文化繁荣：化繁荣：Five grand dynasties each brought China political unity,domestic tranquility,economic growth and cultural achievement:汉朝（公元前206年公元220年）Han(206 BCE 220),唐朝（公元618年公元906年）Tang(618-906),宋朝（公元960年公元1279年）Sung(960-1279),明朝（公元1368年公元1643年）Ming(1368-1643),清朝（公元1644年公元1911年）Qing(1644-1911).在汉朝和唐朝之前相隔了398年，在唐朝和宋朝之间相隔了54年，而在宋朝和明朝之间也相隔了89年的蒙古人统治。398 years separate the Han and the Tang,54 years separate the Tang and the Sung,89 years of Mongol rule separate the Sung and the Ming.自汉朝建立至清朝灭亡的2117年中，五大朝代加起来共占了4262883192732671575年，占了四分之三。Of the 2117 years between the rise of the Han and the fall of the Qing,the five grand dynasties took up 426+288+319+275+267=1575 or three quarters.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民6传统历史学把每个大朝代的兴起解释为拥有一个有能力、聪明的创始人，而把其衰败归结为腐败的官僚主义、太监宦官及后宫之祸。Traditional history explains the rise of each grand dynasty by an energetic,brilliant founder and its fall by corrupt bureaucrats,eunuchs and concubines.然而，中国的理论家们往往倾向于用道德来解释事物。However,Chinese observers tended to interpret everything in moral terms.中国的历史模式能够告诉我们什么呢？What does the pattern of Chinese history tell us?五大朝代中有三个朝代发源于中国的北方边界：秦/汉；唐/隋/五代十国；清朝源于满族边界。Three of the five grand dynasties originated on the northern frontier:Qin/Han;Tang/Sui/Tobas;the Qing were frontier Manchus.大朝代通常通过把经济还原为一种简单的结构而得以建立。Grand dynasties usually began by returning the economy to a simple structure农民向正直的、慈善的学者型官僚们交纳较低的、公平的赋税。Farmers paid a light,fair tax to honest,benevolent scholar-bureaucrats.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民7新的朝代得以建立通常所依赖的简单的土地分配和税收制度无法维持公平和平等，因为各地的人口增长和经济增长都不平衡。The simple land allocation and taxes with which a dynasty typically began could not remain fair and equitable because of regional differences in population growth and in economic growth.而试图调整税收政策的想法又遭到既得利益集团和官僚们的抵制。Attempts to adjust the tax rules met entrenched interests and bureaucratic games.从而当遇到灾害，政府的无能更加突现时，王朝中便会暴发危机。Halfway through a dynasty would come a crisis,as disasters highlighted governance failures.汉朝就发生了王莽篡位。The Han suffered the usurpation of Wang Ming唐朝发生过安禄山叛乱。Tang suffered the An Lu Shan rebellion宋朝兵败退回到长江以南。The Sung suffered military defeat and retreat south of the Yangtze,etc.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民8即使是最强大的朝代也没有能够有效地组织起资源以对抗战略威胁。Even strong dynasties could not organize resources to deal with strategic threats.唐朝中期，北方暴发安禄山叛乱，而在北方，拥有富足的商品储量，但这些商品不适宜直接支付给士兵，为了换钱打仗，皇帝不得不向和尚和道士们颁发应急销售执照。In the middle of the Tang dynasty,the An Lu Shan rebellion erupted in the north where there were large stores of valuable goods.However,these were unsuitable to pay soldiers.To get money,the emperor had to authorize emergency sales of licenses for Buddhist monks and Taoist priests.为支付士兵军晌以与契丹人作战,宋朝的开国皇帝囤积了200万捆丝绸。To pay soldiers to fight the Khitans,the first Sung emperor accumulated 2 million rolls of silk in his warehouses.为应付满州危机，明朝不得不从南方搜刮大量白银并运到前线。To deal with a crisis in Manchuria,the Ming had to scrape together silver from the south and send it there.当清朝委派地方官曾国藩和李鸿章镇压太平天国起义时，这两个人不得不自己筹集资金以给他们的徽军和湘军发晌。When the Qing delegated regional leaders Tseng Kuo Fan and Li Hung Chan to suppress the Tai Ping Rebels,the leaders had to raise funds themselves to pay their Anhwei and Hunan Armies.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民9宋朝的经济非常强大。The Sung had a strong economy.政府机构建造船只、铸造货币、开采矿产、征收商业税。State institutions built ships,minted money,opened mines,collected commercial taxes政府垄断酒、醋、盐和铝Government monopolies on wine vinegar salt and alum.具有改革头脑的皇帝采用了王安石“新政”，刺激了商业经济，充实了国库。Reformist emperor adopted Wang An Shis“new policies”to stimulate the commercial economy and expand government finance.在耕种季节向农民提供贷款。Loans to peasants during the planting season.没有银行来运作资金，没有资产、负债和质押记录，没有法院来处理不良行为。No banks to handle funds,no record of assets,liabilities and collateral,no courts to handle delinquencies.不管是否申请，贷款都被发送到农社手中，农社中的这些成员共同支付本金和利息。Money was handed out to groups of farmers,whether or not they had applied for a loan.They were jointly responsible for repayment plus interest.后来，包税制得到默认，地方军职得以世袭。Later,tax farming was tacitly authorized and regional military posts became inheritable.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民10朝代的更替突显出古代中国统治结构的失败。The dynastic cycle highlights a structural failure of the classic Chinese governance.这种结构在简单的、单一的农业税社会是有效的，但在管理经济增长方面却是局限的和无力的。This functioned efficiently with a simple,uniform agricultural tax,but was limited in reach and incompetent to manage economic growth.从秦朝开始，中国就形成和实现了一种基于单一农业的一元社会制度。From the Qin dynasty,China conceptualized and implemented a unified design for its society based on uniform agriculture.唯一的前现代型的政府根据一个简单的公式始终如一地直接向所有的农民收税。It had the only pre-modern government that consistently taxed all farmers directly by a simple formula.这提供了其先进文明和复杂政府存在的物质基础。This provided the material base for its advanced civilization and sophisticated government.然而，中国缺乏把税赋与收入水平联系起来的制度，而是根据人头或者根据田地数量摊派税赋。However,China lacked the institutions to relate taxation to income levels,instead levying taxes taxed per head or per farm.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民11中国根据道德品行来设立文职岗位。China invented the civil service based on merit但这没有得到很好的组织，从而去实现根据标准程序来完成特定的任务。But this was not organized to achieve specific tasks by standard procedures.文职官员受儒家思想的控制，而非受程序的控制，而且礼不下庶人。Civil servants were governed by Confucian propriety rather than procedures and never reached down to individual families.文职官员仅仅只具有管理一个单一的农社的能力。The civil service was capable only of managing a uniform mass of farmers.可以编制统计，为了建设大型项目可以动员大量资源，如长城、大运河等Statistics could be compiled and resources mobilized for big projects like the Great Wall and the Grand Canal.但在地方层次上无法有效率地动员和配置资源，也无法公平地对商业经营征税。But there was no capacity to mobilize and allocate resources efficiently at the local level,nor to tax commercial operations fairly.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民12农业税通常以货代款支付，无法直接运到前线充当士兵们的给养。The agricultural tax was paid in kind and could not be shifted to feed soldiers on the frontier.明朝开国皇帝要求地方官将这些代税的货物运送到指定的仓库和补给站，这些仓库和补给站有时候路途非常遥远。The first Ming Emperor required community leaders to deliver consignments to designated warehouses and depots,some in far-off regions.一个镇可能不得不将多种不同的商品运送到不同的地方。A given town might have to deliver a variety of goods to a variety of locations.政府需要的服务，如信使的装备和书信用纸，从纳税人处逐项征收。Services needed by for government,such as support for messengers and writing paper,were requisitioned from taxpayers item by item.有很严密的会计、帐目，但传输无效率并造成浪费。There was tight accounting,but inefficiency and waste in transport.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民13皇帝通过规定习俗来强化其宗教角色，但对皇帝没有任何制度上的约束，仅仅可能面临来自行政官员们的道德批评。The emperor performed rites that affirmed his religious role,but faced no institutional constraints,merely moral criticism from civil servants.中国的行政官员们同样也受习俗和道德榜样的管制Chinas civil service likewise managed by ritual and moral example.通过考试来选拔官员,官员被灌输道德行为和仁义之心。The scholar officials were chosen by examination and taught of moral conduct and benevolence.但他们把管理问题解释为道德问题。But they interpreted managerial problems as moral problems.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民14商业被视作是不道德的Business was viewed as immoral.这是自我实现的，因为受过教育和被认为有道德的人中没有一个人经商。This was self-fulfilling,since no one of education and moral character would engage in business.儒家学者把政权的失败解释为一种宇宙道德游戏，以上天发怒、昏君、包藏祸心的皇后、欺上瞒下的太监等来解释。Confucian scholars interpreted government failure as a cosmic morality play,featuring an angry Heaven,drunken emperors,scheming empresses and sly eunuchs.他们把商业视为是狡诈和贪财谋利，就像现代社会人们视毒品和卖淫一样。They saw business as cunning and money grubbing,like drugs and prostitution in a modern economy.由于这些活动是道德所不允许的，政府自然不会认同商业活动中的产权和合同，但事实上只有政府才能为这些活动创造一个透明的环境。Since these activities are morally rejected,governments cannot sanction property rights and contracts in them.But only governments can create a transparent environment for such activities.没有政府的认可，这些活动只能是一种非法经济，永远不可能变成国家的经济来源。从而从事这些活动的人会去腐蚀那些滥用职权榨取钱财的官员。Without this,the activities comprise a black economy and never become a national economic resource.They corrupt officials who abuse their office to extract value.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民15没有政府的商业体系，有雄心的家族如何创造财富和树立地位？With no government framework for business,how could ambitious families build up wealth and status?他们以一种不稳定的形式聚集土地和人力资本。They accumulated land and human capital in an unstable pattern.家族通过考学上的成功发家，并通过他们的官位获得土地和最小化自己的税赋来巩固这种成功。Families rose through scholarly success and consolidated that success by using their official positions to acquire land and minimize the tax burden.从而导致的这种社会和经济优越性被转化为下一代受教育的优越性，从而下一代也能获得官位。The resulting social and economic advantages translated into educational advantages for the next generation,hence official positions.行政官员们采用复杂的程序来防止腐败和裙带关系，但是在王朝中，在官僚斗争中，家族网络会相互袒护，会互不征土地税，从而使行政官员的努力失效。The civil service developed sophisticated procedures to block corruption and nepotism,but over a dynasty,these were subverted as family networks supported each other in bureaucratic struggles and sheltered each others land from tax.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民16朝代更替模型朝代更替模型Model of the Dynastic Cycle.一个新朝代提供一种社会秩序和公平，以及较轻的农业税赋，从而提高了生产力。A new dynasty provides social order and fair,light taxation of agriculture,which increases its productivity.行政官员重新编制，被重新激励。The civil service is reorganized and re-motivated.适应地区之间的人口增长率和经济活动的差异性，出现了土地分配和税率方面的差异。Discrepancies in land allocations and effective tax rates show up with regional differences in the rates of population growth and in economic activity.号召锻炼判断力和拥护地方政府，官僚们开始为个人目的操纵制度。Called upon to exercise discretion and to act as regional advocates,the bureaucracy starts manipulating the system for personal payoffs.随着不断的繁荣，从职务获得的回报增加，使得官僚们的财富斗争更加激烈。The rewards from office rise with increased prosperity,which increases bureaucratic competition for wealth.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民17一些达官显贵家族通过积聚土地和“人力资本”教育和关系网络从而变得富有。Some scholar-gentry families grow wealthy by accumulating land and“human capital”:education and networks.由于农业经济的增长，收入不断增长，进而消费者产品需求增加，从而发展了制造业和采矿业。Rising incomes from the growing agricultural economy increase demand for consumer products,hence for manufactures and mining.但是商业的合法性却不明确，所有商业活动是在没有清晰的产权和透明的市场环境的情况下进行的。But business has dubious legitimacy,so it operates without clear property rights or transparent market institutions.这导致了一种贪婪的争夺，从而破坏了行政体系，使得朝代灭亡。This sets up a greedy scramble that undermines the civil service and collapses the dynasty.长长江江E EMMB BA A长长江江E EMMB BA A学学学学学学以以以以以以致致致致致致用用用用用用 经经经经经经世世世世世世济济济济济济民民民民民民学学学学以以以以致致致致用用用用 经经经经世世世世济济济济民民民民18为什么中国没有能发生工业革命，而是陷入在了朝代更替的怪圈中了呢？Why did China not break out into an Industrial Revolution but remain trapped in its dynastic cycle?中国没有相当于既灵活又公平的英国法系的东西。China had no counterpart to the English legal system,which was both flexible and fair.中国拥有信贷市场，但却没有流动的、社会接受的、和受法律保护的金融工具。在朝代更替过程中，中国的土地所有权像18世纪的英格兰一样越来越集中，但是却没有从这种集中中获益：即增加农业产出、减少食物成本、为工业解放劳动力等方面的技术和管理水平的提升。China had credit markets,but not financial instruments that were liquid,socially respected and legally protected.Over a dynastic cycle,China saw increased concentrations of land ownership like 18th century England,but got none of the benefits:technical and managerial improvements that increased agricu