SARS对中国物流影响研究报告.doc

SARS对中国物流影响研究报告

21
2020年5月29日
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SARS对中国物流影响研究报告(SARS and China Logistics)

 Part I Economic Impacts
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Introduction
The recent outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has threatened short-term growth prospects in Asia. As of 5 May , SARS has infected more than 6,500 people worldwide, and caused mounting concern. A number of East and Southeast Asian economies, including People’s Republic of China (PRC); Hong Kong, China; Singapore; Taipei, China; and Viet Nam have been put under considerable strain. The epidemic has also affected other economies, although to a lesser extent. Some positive developments and improved public health measures in recent weeks have added weight to arguments that
SARS, although serious, will cause only a temporary shock to economic growth. However, the implications stemming from SARS extend beyond the short-term horizon. The impact of SARS, and reactions to it, raise many questions. Two are particularly important:
(i) Why has attention to SARS been so prominent given its
relatively low morbidity and mortality?
(ii) How should governments deal with unexpected shocks related to the outbreak of contagious diseases?
This brief assesses the economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies and explores these issues.
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Short-term Economic Impact of SARS Channels through which the Impact of SARS is Felt
In the short term, SARS mainly affects economic growth by reducing demand:
(i) Consumer confidence has dramatically declined in a number of economies, leading to a significant reduction in private consumption spending. Much of the impact stems from the great uncertainty and fear generated by SARS. People have opted to stay at home to reduce the probability of infection.
(ii) Service exports, in particular tourism-related exports, have been hard hit.
(iii) Investment is affected by reduced overall demand, heightened uncertainties, and increased risks. Excess capacity will emerge or increase. Furthermore, foreign investment inflow may be delayed or reduced in reaction to SARS.
(iv) While increased government spending will mitigate the impact, the ability of governments to revive economies facing widespread reductions in private spending is limited. Although SARS has affected every component of aggregate demand, private consumption has particularly borne the brunt of the
impact. Services involving face-to-face contact have been dealt a severe blow by the widespread fear of infection through such interactions. Tourism, transportation (particularly airlines), and retailing have been the hardest hit sectors as consumers shun shops, restaurants, and entertainment venues; and travelers cancel trips. As visitor arrivals have dropped, hotel occupancy rates have fallen significantly in Hong Kong, China and in Singapore. The reduction of hotel rates has not been able to lure travelers back. Airlines such as Cathay Pacific have canceled a large number of flights. Tourism accounts for over 9% of GDP in East Asia and about 11% in Southeast Asia. The SARS-induced stress on this industry will be felt by other industries in the two sub-regions. While the East and Southeast Asian sub-regions have been the most affected, the impact of SARS has spread elsewhere, through
(i) the spread of the virus and the disease itself;
(ii) reduction in import demand by Asian economies, especially for tourism-related services; and
(iii) weakened consumer and investor sentiment because of increased uncertainty.
One factor that might offset this negative impact is the rebound of private spending when SARS is brought under control. Consumers may compensate for their reduction in consumption by subsequently
increasing their spending. While domestic consumption could quickly change once confidence resumes, it may take a longer period for foreign travelers and investors to return.
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The Impact of SARS—Macroeconomic Simulations
The impact of SARS critically depends on:
(i) the seriousness of SARS
(ii) the duration of SARS
(iii) the structure of an economy, particularly the importance of service industries in GDP
The recently published Asian Development Outlook forecasts (ADB ) reflect an assumption that the most intensive impact will be confined to 2 months. The implementation of effective containment measures against SARS in a number of economies since March has lent support to this perspective. However, many questions remain unanswered about the development and nature of SARS, and
these unknown factors complicate analysis of its impact. In order to allow for these lacunae, two scenarios are considered here. One assumes that SARS will have a serious impact in the second quarter of , and the other assumes that it will have a major impact in the second and third quarters of . Given the uncertainties involved, we need to monitor and evaluate developments closely, and to be prepared to revisit the estimates as circumstances change. Furthermore, any scenario design will involve a degree of arbitrariness and judgment. The results are thus indicative rather than definitive.
It is also assumed that the initial impact will mainly be through reduced demand for services. The reduction in service sector growth is then translated to an equivalent reduction in autonomous consumption expenditure, which is used as the input for the scenarios. The macroeconomic simulations use the Oxford Economic Forecasting model (OEF). The results show that GDP growth in East and Southeast Asian economies is likely to be reduced by around 0.2-1.8 percentage points in if SARS persists for a quarter in individual economies. If the impact of SARS extends into the third quarter of , GDP growth is likely to be reduced by 0.5 to 4.0 percentage points in individual economies (Table 1). A reduction in GDP growth of this magnitude will mean large losses in income and output. The estimated income loss ranges from US$12.3-28.4 billion for East and Southeast Asia as a whole under
the two scenarios. Of particular concern is the fact that SARS will not only induce hardship for many, but also intensify the problems faced by the poorest and most vulnerable groups in society due to their
limited access to medical services. The weakening of demand will further reduce inflation and
intensify deflationary pressure in some economies, including PRC; Hong Kong, China; and Taipei, China. Weakened demand will also cause the unemployment rate to rise. Although reduced service exports will lower foreign exchange receipts, imports may be lowered even more due to a significant weakening of domestic demand in the economies concerned. This means that the current account balance
may not worsen in the short run.
(to be continue)
Part I
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PRC Growth Affected by SARS, But will Remain Above 7% in and
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BEIJING, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (28 April ) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has reduced its economic growth forecast for the People's Republic of China (PRC) by 0.2 percentage point because of the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). ADB forecasts that the SARS-affected economy of PRC will grow by 7.3% in compared with 8% in .
The forecast is published in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), an annual publication of ADB, which analyzes economic trends in the region. The ADO forecasts gross domestic product growth at 76% in .
In , besides SARS, the economy will face downward pressure as a result of the negative effects of the Iraq war on external demand, and a general slowdown in the world economy.
"If the world economy experiences a modest recovery, domestic private sector investment gathers momentum, and rural incomes rise moderately, the economy will maintain its high growth in ," says the ADO.
This follows the strong economic performance in when the economy grew by 8%. In , exports grew faster than expected, with record levels of foreign direct investment, and buoyant domestic demand.
As PRC's suppliers from around the world, particularly Asia, exploit opportunities in PRC's rapidly growing domestic market, imports are expected to exceed that of exports, resulting in a smaller trade surplus. Imports will likely increase by 12% in and 14.0% in after a 21% expansion in .
Substantial inflows of foreign direct investment will partly offset a decline in the current account surplus resulting from the deteriorating trade balance. The current account surplus will likely be 1.6% of GDP in over 1.9% in .
The ADO says the growing fiscal deficit will limit the continued use of fiscal stimulus packages. However, potential fiscal risks will accumulate as the PRC contemplates another bank bailout and seeks ways to fund its fledgling pension system.
Although affected by the spread of SARS, domestic consumption will remain robust. The economy will continue to face deflationary pressure in because of large excess capacity in many industries and cheap imports related to World Trade Organization (WTO) trade liberalization.
Challenges the PRC faces include:
• Creating a sufficient number of jobs to employ new market entrants, including laid-off SOE (state-owned enterprise) workers and surplus rural labor.
• Creating a better environment for the private sector, which is PRC's engine of job creation, by improving the legal framework and judicial system; honoring contracts; eliminating fake products and protecting intellectual property rights; eliminating barriers to fair competition; reducing corruption and setting better accounting and auditing standards.
• Reducing income inequalities between the coastal and the poorer interior provinces and between rural and urban areas and reducing poverty. Successfully addressing poverty and inequality is essential to maintain broad-based public support for the reform program.
• Addressing vulnerabilities in the financial system. The large volume of non-performing loans and a poorly performing banking system have hindered the development of an efficient nationwide financial system and imposed large costs on the economy. The private sector and rural sector have difficulty accessing financial resources.
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003 Conclusions:
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SARS has caused serious disruption to short-term economic growth. Its long-term impact largely depends on whether governments can speedily implement effective public health policies. Given the
externalities related to contagious diseases, governments need to play a major role in preventing and containing diseases, and in generating research outcomes to facilitate rapid and effective
diagnosis and treatment.
(i) The accurate, timely, and transparent provision of information on the nature and extent of diseases by
governments is critical for educating the public about the real risks and reducing public fears and uncertainties. A balance needs to be struck between alerting the public to the potential dangers involved and preventing panic and overreaction to the danger concerned.
(ii) Early identification and containment is critical, as any delays will create greater costs later on.
(iii) SARS is merely one of many contagious diseases that could potentially flare up. Public policy needs to go beyond SARS to make provisions for all contagious diseases. Efforts need to be put into applying and maintaining the lessons learned from the SARS crisis after it is controlled. In particular, there is a need to minimize the occurrence of all contagious diseases; to effectively respond to emergency situations; and to strengthen health systems so that they have the ability to cope with similar situations in
the future.
(iv) The global implications of serious contagious diseases means that governments need to intensify cooperation and coordination. There is a particular need for developed countries and more advanced developing member countries to devote funds toward undertaking collaborative, proactive, and forward-looking research on combating such diseases. Counties also need to commit to collaborative schemes to develop effective policy frameworks and institutional capacity for preventing, reporting, monitoring, and containing all contagious diseases.
(v) The occurrence of emergency situations such as the outbreak of SARS shows that government budgets need to be prudent so that they are capable of handling unheralded public health crises. An appropriate amount of funds should be set aside to cope with such contingencies.
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If good strategies can be drawn up from the lessons learned in combating the spread of SARS, the world at large will benefit in the long run.
Part II SARs & China Logistics
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It is in China and Hong Kong where SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is changing working and personal lives of almost all and constitutes a threat significantly greater than to any other population center or economy. Today Beijing, China's bustling capital city, along with the whole Shanxi province and Toronto in Canada were added to the WHO list of centres with strong travel advisories due to the prevalence of SARS in each place. Today also, Beijing's railway station was thronging with people vacating the city, and perhaps even spreading the virus to other parts of China. "...As you might have already aware the SARS situation in Beijing is getting serious. In Beijing, everyone seems to be in a panic at present and are starting to store food, hence the supermarkets have already depleted their stocks of detergent, salt, soy sauce etc. The Chinese Labour Day holiday will start from 1st May until 6th of May which means in this period we are unlikely to conduct any interviews. The holiday has been curtailed by the government, but most people will stay indoors and at home during this period, holiday or not. As far as I understand some of the international market research companies in Beijing have either closed down or are only operating at 50%, which means employees are working in shifts with the rest staying at home until the 6th of May.
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As have all been hearing a great deal recently about the SARS epidemic, especially its affect on China mainland, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Many enterprises have had several calls recently from customers concerned that this disease, and the problems it is causing, will somehow impact the movement of cargo into and out of the area. To the best of our knowledge, at this point, neither air nor ocean carriers have cancelled any services due to this epidemic. There appears to be no evidence that SARS is spread by any means other than direct contact, so there should be no concern regarding cargo shipments. Particularly, there have been concerns about whether operations will continue if one or more employees become infected and become quarantined in their homes or the offices themselves become quarantined.
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Ma