项目管理：计划、进度和控制的系统方法(第10版英文).pdf

Dr.Kerzners 16 Points to ProjectManagement Maturity1.Adopt a project management methodology and use it consistently.2.Implement a philosophy that drives the company toward projectmanagement maturity and communicate it to everyone.3.Commit to developing effective plans at the beginning of each project.4.Minimize scope changes by committing to realistic objectives.5.Recognize that cost and schedule management are inseparable.6.Select the right person as the project manager.7.Provide executives with project sponsor information,not projectmanagement information.8.Strengthen involvement and support of line management.9.Focus on deliverables rather than resources.10.Cultivate effective communication,cooperation,and trust to achieverapid project management maturity.11.Share recognition for project success with the entire project team andline management.12.Eliminate nonproductive meetings.13.Focus on identifying and solving problems early,quickly,and costeffectively.14.Measure progress periodically.15.Use project management software as a toolnot as a substitute foreffective planning or interpersonal skills.16.Institute an all-employee training program with periodic updates basedupon documented lessons learned.ffirs.qxd 1/21/09 4:44 PM Page iiPROJECTMANAGEMENTA Systems Approach toPlanning,Scheduling,and ControllingT E N T HE D I T I O NH A R O L DK E R Z N E R,P h.D.Senior Executive Director for Project ManagenmentThe International Insitute for Learning New York,New YorkJohn Wiley&Sons,Inc.ffirs.qxd 1/21/09 4:44 PM Page iiiThis book is printed on acid-free paper.?Copyright 2009 by John Wiley&Sons,Inc.All rights reservedPublished by John Wiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,New JerseyPublished simultaneously in CanadaNo part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning or otherwise,except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act,without either the prior written permission of the Publisher,or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center,222 Rosewood Drive,Danvers,MA01923,[phone],fax[phone],or on the web at .Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department,John Wiley&Sons,Inc.,111 River Street,Hoboken,NJ 07030,[phone],fax[phone],or online athttp:/ of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty:While the publisher and author have used their best effortsin preparing this book,they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy orcompleteness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantabilityor fitness for a particular purpose.No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives orwritten sales materials.The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation.You should consult with a professional where appropriate.Neither the publisher nor author shall be liablefor any loss of profit or any other commercial damages,including but not limited to special,incidental,consequential,or other damages.For general information about our other products and services,please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at(800)762-2974,outside the United States at(317)572-3993 or fax[phone].Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats.Some content that appears in print may notbe available in electronic books.For more information about Wiley products,visit our web site at .Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:Kerzner,Harold.Project management:a systems approach to planning,scheduling,and conrolling/Harold Kerzner.10th ed.p.cm.Includes index.ISBN 978-0-470-27870-3(cloth:acid-free paper)1.Project management.I.Title.HD69.P75K47 2009658.4?04dc222008049907Printed in the United States of America.10987654321ffirs.qxd 1/21/09 4:44 PM Page ivToDr.Herman Krier,my Friend and Guru,who taught me well themeaning of the word“persistence”ffirs.qxd 1/21/09 4:44 PM Page vffirs.qxd 1/21/09 4:44 PM Page viContentsPrefacexxi1OVERVIEW11.0Introduction11.1Understanding Project Management21.2Defining Project Success71.3The Project ManagerLine Manager Interface81.4Defining the Project Managers Role121.5Defining the Functional Managers Role141.6Defining the Functional Employees Role171.7Defining the Executives Role171.8Working with Executives181.9The Project Manager as the Planning Agent191.10Project Champions201.11The Downside of Project Management211.12Project-Driven versus NonProject-Driven Organizations221.13Marketing in the Project-Driven Organization241.14Classification of Projects261.15Location of the Project Manager271.16Differing Views of Project Management291.17Concurrent Engineering:A Project Management Approach301.18Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam30Problems33Case StudyWilliams Machine Tool Company35viiftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page vii2PROJECT MANAGEMENT GROWTH:CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS372.0Introduction372.1General Systems Management382.2Project Management:19451960382.3Project Management:19601985392.4Project Management:19852009452.5Resistance to Change502.6Systems,Programs,and Projects:A Definition542.7Product versus Project Management:A Definition572.8Maturity and Excellence:A Definition582.9Informal Project Management:A Definition592.10The Many Faces of Success602.11The Many Faces of Failure632.12The Stage-Gate Process662.13Project Life Cycles682.14Gate Review Meetings(Project Closure)742.15Project Management Methodologies:A Definition742.16Organizational Change Management and Corporate Cultures762.17Project Management Intellectual Property812.18Systems Thinking822.19Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam85Problems883ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES913.0Introduction913.1Organizational Work Flow943.2Traditional(Classical)Organization953.3Developing Work Integration Positions983.4LineStaff Organization(Project Coordinator)1023.5Pure Product(Projectized)Organization1033.6Matrix Organizational Form1063.7Modification of Matrix Structures1133.8The Strong,Weak,Balanced Matrix1173.9Center for Project Management Expertise1173.10Matrix Layering1183.11Selecting the Organizational Form119312Structuring the Small Company1253.13Strategic Business Unit(SBU)Project Management1283.14Transitional Management1293.15Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam131Problems133viiiCONTENTSftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page viiiCase StudyJones and Shephard Accountants,Inc.1384ORGANIZING AND STAFFING THE PROJECT OFFICE ANDTEAM1414.0Introduction 1414.1The Staffing Environment1424.2Selecting the Project Manager:An Executive Decision1444.3Skill Requirements for Project and Program Managers1484.4Special Cases in Project Manager Selection1544.5Selecting the Wrong Project Manager1544.6Next Generation Project Managers1584.7Duties and Job Descriptions1594.8The Organizational Staffing Process1634.9The Project Office1694.10The Functional Team1744.11The Project Organizational Chart1754.12Special Problems1784.13Selecting the Project Management Implementation Team1804.14Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam183Problems1855MANAGEMENT FUNCTIONS1915.0Introduction1915.1Controlling1935.2Directing1935.3Project Authority1985.4Interpersonal Influences2065.5Barriers to Project Team Development2095.6Suggestions for Handling the Newly Formed Team2125.7Team Building as an Ongoing Process2165.8Dysfunctions of a Team2175.9Leadership in a Project Environment2205.10Life-Cycle Leadership2215.11Organizational Impact2255.12EmployeeManager Problems2275.13Management Pitfalls2305.14Communications2335.15Project Review Meetings2425.16Project Management Bottlenecks2435.17Communication Traps244Contentsixftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page ix5.18Proverbs and Laws2455.19Human Behavior Education2485.20Management Policies and Procedures2495.21Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam249Problems254Case StudiesThe Trophy Project264Leadership Effectiveness(A)266Leadership Effectiveness(B)271Motivational Questionnaire2776MANAGEMENT OF YOUR TIME AND STRESS2856.0Introduction2856.1Understanding Time Management2866.2Time Robbers2866.3Time Management Forms2886.4Effective Time Management2896.5Stress and Burnout2906.6Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam292Problems293Case StudyThe Reluctant Workers2947CONFLICTS2957.0Introduction2957.1Objectives2967.2The Conflict Environment2977.3Conflict Resolution3007.4Understanding Superior,Subordinate,and Functional Conflicts3017.5The Management of Conflicts3037.6Conflict Resolution Modes3047.7Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam306Problems308Case StudiesFacilities Scheduling at Mayer Manufacturing311Telestar International312Handling Conflict in Project Management313xCONTENTSftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page x8SPECIAL TOPICS3198.0Introduction3198.1Performance Measurement3208.2Financial Compensation and Rewards3278.3Critical Issues with Rewarding Project Teams3338.4Effective Project Management in the Small Business Organization3368.5Mega Projects3388.6Morality,Ethics,and the Corporate Culture3398.7Professional Responsibilities3428.8Internal Partnerships3458.9External Partnerships3468.10Training and Education3488.11Integrated Product/Project Teams3508.12Virtual Project Teams3528.13Breakthrough Projects3548.14Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam355Problems3619THE VARIABLES FOR SUCCESS3659.0Introduction3659.1Predicting Project Success3669.2Project Management Effectiveness3709.3Expectations3719.4Lessons Learned3729.5Understanding Best Practices3739.6Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam380Problems38110WORKING WITH EXECUTIVES38310.0Introduction38310.1The Project Sponsor38410.2Handling Disagreements with the Sponsor39310.3The Collective Belief39410.4The Exit Champion39510.5The In-House Representatives39610.6Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam397Problems398Contentsxiftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page xixiiCONTENTSCase StudyCorwin Corporation40111PLANNING41111.0Introduction41111.1Validating the Assumptions41411.2General Planning41511.3Life-Cycle Phases41811.4Proposal Preparation42111.5Kickoff Meetings42111.6Understanding Participants Roles42411.7Project Planning42411.8The Statement of Work42611.9Project Specifications43111.10 Milestone Schedules43311.11 Work Breakdown Structure43411.12 WBS Decomposition Problems44011.13 Role of the Executive in Project Selection44411.14 Role of the Executive in Planning44911.15 The Planning Cycle44911.16 Work Planning Authorization45011.17 Why Do Plans Fail?45111.18 Stopping Projects45211.19 Handling Project Phaseouts and Transfers45311.20 Detailed Schedules and Charts45411.21 Master Production Scheduling45711.22 Project Plan45911.23 Total Project Planning46411.24 The Project Charter46811.25 Management Control46911.26 The Project ManagerLine Manager Interface47211.27 Fast-Tracking47411.28 Configuration Management47511.29 Enterprise Project Management Methodologies47611.30 Project Audits47911.31 Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam480Problems48312NETWORK SCHEDULING TECHNIQUES49312.0Introduction49312.1Network Fundamentals495ftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page xii12.2Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique(GERT)50012.3Dependencies50112.4Slack Time50212.5Network Replanning50812.6Estimating Activity Time51212.7Estimating Total Project Time51312.8Total PERT/CPM Planning51412.9Crash Times51612.10 PERT/CPM Problem Areas51912.11 Alternative PERT/CPM Models52212.12 Precedence Networks52312.13 Lag52612.14 Scheduling Problems52812.15 The Myths of Schedule Compression52812.16 Understanding Project Management Software53012.17 Software Features Offered53012.18 Software Classification53212.19 Implementation Problems53312.20 Critical Chain53412.21 Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam536Problems539Case StudyCrosby Manufacturing Corporation55213PROJECT GRAPHICS55513.0Introduction55513.1Customer Reporting55613.2Bar(Gantt)Chart55713.3Other Conventional Presentation Techniques56413.4Logic Diagrams/Networks56713.5Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam568Problems56914PRICING AND ESTIMATING57114.0Introduction57114.1Global Pricing Strategies57214.2Types of Estimates57314.3Pricing Process57614.4Organizational Input Requirements57814.5Labor Distributions58014.6Overhead Rates584Contentsxiiiftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page xiii14.7Materials/Support Costs58614.8Pricing Out the Work58914.9Smoothing Out Department Man-Hours59014.10 The Pricing Review Procedure59214.11 Systems Pricing59414.12 Developing the Supporting/Backup Costs59514.13 The Low-Bidder Dilemma59914.14 Special Problems59914.15 Estimating Pitfalls60014.16 Estimating High-Risk Projects60114.17 Project Risks60214.18 The Disaster of Applying the 10 Percent Solution to Project Estimates60514.19 Life-Cycle Costing(LCC)60614.20 Logistics Support61314.21 Economic Project Selection Criteria:Capital Budgeting61414.22 Payback Period61414.23 The Time Value of Money61514.24 Net Present Value(NPV)61614.25 Internal Rate of Return(IRR)61714.26 Comparing IRR,NPV,and Payback61814.27 Risk Analysis61814.28 Capital Rationing61914.29 Project Financing62014.30 Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam622Problems62415COST CONTROL62915.0Introduction62915.1Understanding Control63315.2The Operating Cycle63615.3Cost Account Codes63715.4Budgets64415.5The Earned Value Measurement System(EVMS)64515.6Variance and Earned Value64715.7The Cost Baseline66615.8Justifying the Costs66815.9The Cost Overrun Dilemma67115.10 Recording Material Costs Using Earned Value Measurement67215.11 The Material Accounting Criterion67515.12 Material Variances:Price and Usage67615.13 Summary Variances67715.14 Status Reporting67815.15 Cost Control Problems685xivCONTENTSftoc.qxd 1/19/09 2:27 PM Page xiv15.16 Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam686Problems689Case StudiesThe Bathtub Period708Franklin Electronics709Trouble in Paradise71116TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS IN A PROJECT ENVIRONMENT71516.0Introduction71516.1Methodology for Trade-off Analysis71816.2Contracts:Their Influence on Projects73516.3Industry Trade-off Preferences73616.4Conclusion73916.5Studying Tips for the PMIProject Management Certification Exam73917RISK MANAGEMENT74117.0Introduction74117.1Definition of Risk74317.2Tolerance for Risk74517.3Definition of Risk Management74617.4Certainty,Risk,and Uncertainty74717.5Risk Management Process75317.6Plan Risk Management75317.7Risk Identification75517.8Risk Analysis76117.9Qualitative Risk Analysis76617.10 Quantitative Risk Analysis77117.11 Probability Distributions and the Monte Carlo Process77217.12 Plan Risk Response 78217.13 Monitoring and Control Risks 78817.14 Some Implementation Considerations78817.15 The Use of Lessons Learned79017.16 Dependencies between Risks793