2024年数字贸易新图景报告.pdf

Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital TradeGoing-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 5Executive Summary1.Asia-Pacific Cross-border Trade:Sustained High Growth2.Catching the Wave:A New Landscape of Chinese Trade3.Going Global Potential Index of Asia-Pacific Digital Trade4.Survey of Overseas Expansion of Digital Trade Enterprises5.Key Factors for the Future Development of Digital Trade in the Asia-Pacific RegionConclusionContents02Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 503Executive SummaryDespite the recent slowdown in global economic growth,geopolitical conflicts,and protectionist policies,which have collectively decelerated international trade growth and cross-border capital flows,Asia-Pacific trade maintained growth momentum with strengthening regional cooperation.The regions abundant factor resources and vast market size,coupled with regional free trade agreements and digital technology enablement,have made it a vibrant area for trade and investment,with tightly integrated value chains.Currently,the development and application of digital technologies accelerated the restructuring and upgrading of value chains.On one hand,the rapid development and application of digital technologies provided more market participants with opportunities to engage in global value chains.On the other hand,the enhanced digitalization of various operational aspects not only increases the value-added creation of enterprises but also endows them with differentiated competitive advantages,making value chain restructuring feasible.Although the overall digitalization process in the Asia-Pacific region is progressing positively,uneven development of digital economy among countries affects the digital transformation of regional value chains.One effective measure to bridge the digital divide is to enhance innovation of technology platforms and foster regional cooperation among governments.Some Chinese internet companies have been engaging in digital economic cooperation abroad through“technology going global”and“capital going global”,continuously bringing convenience to the production and lives of people in various countries.Branding has also become an inevitable trend.An increasing number of Chinese foreign trade enterprises are shifting from product exports to brand going global,building their own brands,and exploring new foreign trade channels to enhance the profitability of cross-border goods.Emerging markets represented by Southeast Asia,the Middle East,and Latin America,with their vast market potential and promising development prospects,are attracting a growing number of Chinese enterprises seeking business opportunities.Thanks to this trend,the demand for high-quality local service ecosystems by trade entities will also rise.Further improving and enhancing local infrastructure such as logistics and capital flow will help unleash greater trade vitality and upgrade potential.Asia-Pacific Cross-border Trade:Sustained High GrowthCatching the Wave:A New Landscape of Chinese Trade12Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 504Based on the evaluation system described,the major economies in Asia can be categorized into four types regarding their going global environment for digital trade:high potential markets,mature markets,early-stage markets and budding markets.High potential markets include Indonesia,Malaysia,Vietnam,Thailand,and the Philippines.Mature markets include Singapore,Japan,and South Korea,and early-stage markets include Cambodia,Myanmar,and Laos,and Brunei is a budding market.The high potential markets are characterized by large populations and rapid development.The internet penetration rates in these regions have reached significant levels,and the gap with mature markets is closing rapidly.Mature markets are all developed countries with high levels of economic development and living standards,and they are very active in international trade.These countries have reached a mature level of digitalization,with internet and e-commerce penetration rates leading other Asia-Pacific countries.Early-stage markets are characterized by lower levels of digital trade market scale and market maturity.These countries have smaller economies and underdeveloped digital infrastructure,with extremely low internet penetration rates and outdated network environments,posing significant constraints on the development of digital trade.However,the e-commerce market scale and digital payment transaction volume in these countries have shown a strong growth momentum.In terms of overall market maturity and growth rate,the budding market remains at a relatively early stage.North American and the European markets are the top two regions where overseas enterprises conduct business,mainly because of their stable economic environment and high consumption capacity.Followed by Japan,South Korea,and Southeast Asia.Although the market size of Japan and South Korea is not as big as of North America and Europe,it still represents certain objective opportunities,especially for high value-added products.Although Southeast Asia has lower consumption levels and demand for high value-added products compared to Europe and America,they hold great potential for future growth.The regions with the lowest proportions are Central Asia and Africa,with the primary reasons of lower consumer purchasing power and immature market conditions.Leveraging advanced digital technologies such as big data analytics,AI,and IoT,digital trade enterprises have established new business models and value chains,offering a more diverse range of products and services to global consumers.Big data analytics is currently the most prominent and widely applied technology,followed by AI,as these technologies are directly related to business optimization and the enhancement of customer experience.Next are the Internet of Things(IoT)and cloud computing services receive investments of enterprises in logistics,warehousing,and IT infrastructure.However,with the rapid development of the market,these enterprises face numerous challenges,including policy uncertainty,data security and privacy protection issues,and intense market competition.But enterprise are also actively adjusting strategies to face with challenges,such as localized operation,establishment of independent websites,and focusing on in-depth and“refined”operations.Going-Global Potential Index of Asia-Pacific Digital TradeSurvey of Overseas Expansion of Digital Trade Enterprises34Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 505Cross-border payment providers have expanded from basic payment services to offering comprehensive cross-border financial services.Leveraging technologies such as AI,blockchain,big data and API,the focus has shifted to the business scenarios of merchants.By integrating the upstream and downstream supply chains(such as logistics,taxation,and advertising),to cover the growth cycle with one-stop cross-border professional services.Generative AI and Software as a Service(SaaS)are playing the most significant roles.On the one hand,businesses leverage the benefits of Generative AI in content creation to reduce costs and increase efficiency in marketing and sales;on the other hand,SaaS technology expands to both front and back ends,creating an integrated service model that includes traffic acquisition,advertising,and product design at front end,as well as payment processing and logistics at back end,providing a broader opportunity for independent website operators.The policy environment,service ecosystem and service model are moving towards deeper development.From a policy perspective,the implementation of the RCEP has heightened the focus of ASEAN countries on cross-border trade;In terms of the service ecosystem,Chinese high-quality e-commerce platforms provide cross-border sellers with a strong foundation for entering and developing the market by means of financial support,localized operations,and technology export;Regarding the service model,fully managed services and semi-managed services are promoting simultaneously,to offer greater flexibility.The concept of“localization”in cross-border e-commerce will further expand,encompassing the entire value chain from front-end operations(such as channels and marketing)to back-end supply chains(including raw material procurement,production,logistics,and warehousing)and enterprise management(such as team,legal,and tax affairs).The existing industry benefits are gradually diminishing,channel diversification,brand building,and“refined”operation have become crucial opportunities.In terms of channels,the trend of developing self-operated platforms(independent websites)is growing,with more traffic shifting to brand-specific independent websites.Additionally,the channel layout combining platforms and independent websites is adopted by more sellers.From brand building perspective,an increasing number of cross-border sellers are exploring branded,high-value-added products.Take“refined”operation side,cross-border e-commerce platforms and sellers have begun to think about how to optimize operation with digital tools.In the face of an increasingly complex international environment and stringent regulatory trends,compliance has become an unavoidable topic in the cross-border e-commerce industry.Cross-border trade compliance involves both e-commerce platforms and platform sellers,necessitating their joint efforts to collaborate in compliance work,to address compliance risks more effectively.Key Factors for the Future Development of Digital Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region 51.Asia-Pacific Cross-border Trade:Sustained High Growth06Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 507Asia-Pacific trade maintains growth momentum with strengthening regional cooperationDespite the recent slowdown in global economic growth,geopolitical conflicts,and protectionist policies,which have collectively decelerated international trade growth and cross-border capital flows,the Asia-Pacific region has consistently remained a key driver of global economic growth.The regions abundant factor resources and vast market size,coupled with regional free trade agreements and digital technology enablement,have made it a vibrant area for trade and investment,with tightly integrated value chains.In 2023,the Asia-Pacific regions import and export trade in goods accounted for approximately 40%of global trade activities,reaching nearly USD18 trillion,a 30%increase from the USD13.7 trillion in 2013.Remarkably,during the challenging period of 2018-2023,marked by rising protectionism and the COVID-19 pandemic,Asia-Pacific trade in goods still achieved a compound annual growth rate of 4%.According to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP),although the scale of Asia-Pacific trade in goods declined in 2023,it is projected to reach USD18.5 trillion in 2024,reflecting a growth of 5.1%,outpacing the World Trade Organizations global trade growth forecast of 2.6%.The Asia-Pacific region is also experiencing robust growth in digital trade.Currently,it accounts for one-quarter of the global trade in digitally-deliverable services.Between 2017 and 2022,the annual growth rate of digitally-deliverable services exports from the Asia-Pacific region was 10.3%,surpassing the global average of 7.1%.The increasing intra-regional demand is the primary driver of this regions digitally-deliverable services exports.According to UNESCAPs statistics,the share of intra-regional exports rose from 36%to 39%between 2015 and 2021.The top five export markets within the region are Hong Kong,China,Japan,Singapore,and Australia.Externally,the European Union(EU)and North America are the most significant trading partners,accounting for 27%and 20%of the Asia-Pacific regions export market,respectively.Figure:Steady Growth in Asia-Pacific Trade VolumeData source:UNESCAP,UNCTADNote:According to UNCTADs classification,digitally-deliverable services trade primarily covers six categories:“insurance and pension services”,“financial services”,“charges for the use of intellectual property”,“telecommunications,computer and information services”,“other business services”,and“audiovisual and related services”.0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.014.514.013.417.218.817.618.53.43.52.73.33.54.04.31.51.61.61.92.02018201920202021202220232024eImport and export scale of Asia-Pacific goods tradeImport and export scale of Asia-Pacific digitally-delivered services trade(right axis)Import and export scale of Asia-Pacific services trade(right axis)(USD Trillion)(USD Trillion)Going-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 508The sustained vibrancy of Asia-Pacific trade and the continuous strengthening of regional cooperation can be attributed to several factors.Firstly,with economic growth and rising income levels,the Asia-Pacific region has evolved beyond its role as a manufacturing hub to become a new global consumption center in recent years,making intra-regional trade routes increasingly significant.According to a forecast by Standard Chartered Bank,the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),South Asia,East Asia,and the Middle East are expected to form significant global trade corridors by 2030,with average growth rates projected to remain above 6%from 2021 to 2030.Secondly,regional free trade agreements led by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)continue to yield policy benefits,gradually enhancing the regional value chain cooperation system.RCEP,which came into effect in 2022,is currently the worlds largest free trade agreement,with all members committed to lowering tariffs,opening markets,and reducing standard barriers,thus contributing new momentum to global economic cooperation.Figure:Major Global Trade Corridors by 2030Data source:Future of Trade 2030:Trends and Markets by Standard CharteredTrade CorridorsAverage Growth Rate(2021-2030)Trade Volume by 2030Intra-ASEAN8.7%USD800 billionSouth Asia-ASEAN8.6%USD300 billionSouth Asia-The Middle East7.0%USD500 billionEast Asia-ASEAN6.3%USD2.1 trillionGoing-GlobalSeizing the Next Great Opportunity in Digital Trade|1 2 3 4 509With the benefits of RCEP policies,Chinese businesses continue to expand their overseas operations.For instance,in the first half of 2024,the number of Chinese businesses conducting business overseas through WorldFirst grew by 76%year-on-year.Additionally,the number of sellers operating on more than two platforms increased by 17%,and those pursuing brand development surged by 138%.The top five categories of goods exported to RCEP regions included:“apparel,footwear,and accessories”,“household goods”,“consumer electronics”,“gifts,party supplies,novelties,and souvenirs”,