2024年人工智能、全球竞争与半导体行业的未来报告（英）.pdf

A survey of global semiconductor executivesArtificial Intelligence,global competition and the future of our industryMoving fast and slow:AI,geopolitics and the strategic conundrum1.Our optimistic industry2.Our“love-hate”relationship with government policies3.Our views on technology competition between nations4.Our potential blind spot:the“home court”bias5.Our playbook:strategic moves and priorities6.Table of contentsForwardIntegrated Insights and GSA connected with over 130 semiconductor industry leaders from the US,Europe,Mainland China,Taiwan,and other regions to understand their perspectives on the long-term trajectory of our industry.The results highlight an optimistic industry that is laser-focused on“winning”artificial intelligence,while expressing deep concern about the negative impact of geopolitics.While different companies will take different approaches to these twin trends,nearly all respondents indicate that they can no longer perform“business as usual”-they will need strategic transformation for continued success.This publication is designed for semiconductor CEOs,COOs,CFOs,CTOs,global sales leaders as well as strategic and corporate development executives.It is equally relevant for executives of companies whose products rely on semiconductor components,including telecommunications infrastructure,cloud services,data centers,artificial intelligence platform providers,devices,and automotive electronics.01Moving fast and slow:AI,geopolitics and the strategic conundrumAn optimistic industry dealing with increasingly active governmentsOur findings showcase our industrys remarkable sense of optimism,driven by robust growth and stable margins.Meeting the demand for artificial intelligence(AI)solutions remains paramount,with companies re-tooling their investments and“picking up the pace”to keep abreast of the rapidly changing market.Respondents,especially in Asia,believe that hardware specifically the GPUs and CPUs fueling the AI boom represents the most attractive segment in the AI technology stack.Respondents from the US and Taiwan are most optimistic about their regions competitiveness in these booming markets.At the same time,respondents across all regions see an increasing impact from government policies.A substantial minority believes that government policies and funding(not the market)will drive the semiconductor industry going forward.While most respondents view their home government policies positively,the increased focus from policymakers results in geopolitical challenges.Respondents view US-China technology competition,which is driving the emergence of distinct US-centric and Chinese-centric supply chains,as the most significant threat to the semiconductor industry.4 5indicate margins in their segment will be stable or higher over the next 5 years2 3OUTOFindicate geopolitics is the biggest threat to our industry40%+believe hardware players will be long-term winners in AI44%believe government policies,not markets,will drive semiconductor industry strategyOUTOF02Consolidation and competitiveness:American optimism and mixed views on China4 5OUTOFindicate customers prioritize performance and price over geopolitical risk in choosing suppliersDespite 80%of respondents working for Asian,European or Middle Eastern companies,executives express substantial optimism towards the United States.Respondents from every region rank the US as the country most likely to create breakthrough innovation,attract global talents,and win global capital investment.While viewing Taiwan and Mainland China as better locations for manufacturing semiconductor innovations,respondents expect the US to gain the most leading-edge manufacturing market share.Finally,the group anticipates end customers across all regions,including the“Global South”,to align more with the American technology ecosystem than the Chinese one.Respondents expect the Chinese-centric semiconductor supply chain to have the greatest success in the automotive market.There are diverging perspectives on the future global reach of the China-centric semiconductor supply chain-an equal number of respondents support the notion of an“in China for China”supply chain and a“Chinese supply chain that competes globally.”75%believe the USA will attract the worlds best technical talentAI and geopolitics are shifting the industrys“balance of power.”Respondents expect AI to concentrate power in leading countries while enabling new companies in those countries to flourish.This“consolidation”tendency extends to the regional R&D and manufacturing footprint.Despite the semiconductor aspirations of regions such as the Middle East,Southeast Asia,India and others,respondents overwhelmingly believe that the incumbent regions with highest global market share(Japan,Korea,Mainland China,Taiwan,and the US)will“win”on talent,capital,and innovation breakthroughs,while expanding their market share lead in semiconductor manufacturing.This consolidating force aligns with industry key buying factors customers care far more about product performance and cost than supply chain geopolitical risk.Our industry,which demonstrates first mover,scale and clustering benefits,favors incumbency.New regional entrants must build their investment case on innovation and cost effectiveness,rather than their“geopolitical advantages.”The corporate playbook:our response to the dueling trends of AI and geopoliticsCompanies will take three actions to win in this emerging environment.Firstly,they will laser focus on innovation.Creating new technologies and driving new business models will be higher priorities than responding to geopolitics,reducing costs,or even integrating AI into operations.Secondly,acknowledging the inadequacy of their current AI strategies,most companies will ditch“business as usual”,pursue new partnerships,move into new business domains and“move faster”to catch the opportunities.Thirdly,companies will consciously navigate the bifurcated semiconductor landscape.Many companies are choosing to concentrate resources on just one of the two global semiconductor supply chains,while others are establishing separate legal entities to serve both.They will also update their global footprint via investing in new manufacturing and R&D locations,and seeking new investors,suppliers and customers.margin,companies will prioritize investing in innovation over geopolitical moves like supply chain de-risking3:1BY A1 4OUTOFcompanies plan to split up into separate legal entities to continue serving the US and Chinese markets0304Winning in AI drives the need to move faster,to expand global partnerships,and to invest more in innovation.De-risking global operations requires adjusting to the pace of policy making,investing in duplicative manufacturing capabilities and suppliers,breaking up R&D teams,shrinking the set of global partners and,for some companies,shuffling a wide mix of assets,teams,IP and customer relationships between two distinct legal entities.Executives will also need to avoid a debilitating“blind spot”evident in the survey data.Universally,respondents rate their own regions capabilities more highly than respondents from other regions in other words,there is a consistent“home court”bias that could skew decision-making.Given all the above,leaders are unlikely to be able to perfectly optimize both AI and geopolitical strategies something will have to give.In addition,leaders will make these trade-offs in an environment of long-term uncertainty.More than 60%of respondents believe supply chain stability is more than five years away.These challenges may explain why more than 70%of companies in our survey have not yet started executing their new global strategy.In our industry where execution is paramount for survival,CEOs and leaders that approach this confounding set of challenges with agility,insights,patience,and humility,will be in a much better position than those who cannot.These dueling transformations create a conundrum.Strategy is about making choices,and the trade-offs between the demands of AI competition and winning the geopolitical game are clear.believe they need to change their corporate strategy to win in AIcompanies do not yet have detailed execution plans for supply chain de-risking2 3OUTOF80%+The demographics of our survey The 130 respondents work across all major regions and represent a diverse group of companies with headquarters scattered around the world.More than 30%of respondents work in a region different than the headquarters location.Over 60%of respondents work in Asia,with Mainland China representing the largest regional cohort.Demographics of respondents by regionApproximately 1/3 of the 130 respondents work for companies that sell products to end customers(fabless companies and IDMs)while the majority provide products or services to other semiconductor companies(chemicals,design services,EDA tools,equipment,foundry services,packaging and testing services,etc.).Demographics of respondents by company role in the supply chainOthers(8%)Mainland China(34%)Taiwan(15%)Europe(24%)USA(21%)Location of company HQLocation of work Europe(30%)Taiwan(18%)Mainland China(24%)Others(8%)USA(20%)6%12%2%2%19%14%24%4%4%3%0%0%2%2%1%1%0%0%2%1%1%1%25%11%65%Upstream supply chain companiesFabless companiesIDMs0%050%1%06Our optimistic industryOur industry exudes positive sentiment,as we expect both top-line growth and bottom-line health.Despite regional differences in product and end-market focus,there is a consensus that the“current big thing”,Artificial Intelligence,will remain the“next big thing.”pick GPUs and CPUs as the most attractive industry segment3 4OUTOFbelieve our industry will grow faster than global GDP90%believe commercially viable quantum computing is more than 10 years away1 2OUTOFBigger,more profitable and driven by AI9 out of 10 respondents anticipate semiconductor growth rates will outpace global economic growth over the next 5 years.One-quarter predict industry growth will surpass global economic growth by more than 4 percentage points.75%forecast their segment margins to stay flat or rise during the next five years.Greater than half of respondents choose AI as the most attractive end market and indicate that GPUs,CPUs and AI accelerators are the most attractive product segment.Chips that support the AI rollout(connectivity,power management and memory)bunch together closely as the next most attractive segments.Perhaps reflecting overcapacity concerns,respondents grade mature logic as the least attractive segment.OUR OPTIMISTIC INDUSTRYHow rapidly will global semiconductor industry revenue grow in the next 5 years?How will profit margin in your industry segment change over the next 5 years?Semiconductor end markets ranked by attractiveness(1 being most attractive)Product segments ranked by attractiveness(1 being most attractive)26%40%24%9%1%4+pts faster than the global economy2-4 pts faster the global economy1-2 pts faster than the global economyRevenues will grow at the same rate as the overall global economySemiconductor revenues will grow more slowly than the global economy11%33%33%16%7%No changeArtificial IntelligenceAutomotiveElectrification and new energyIoTPCs,phones and mobile devicesMetaverse/Web3Quantum computingMost attractiveLeast attractiveMicrocontroller and Mature Logic AnalogprocessingCPU/GPU and AI acceleratorsConnectivityPower managementMemoryMost attractiveLeast attractiveMore than 5 pts higher than todayMore than 5 pts lower than today3-5 pts higher than today3-5 pts lower than today075.03.93.43.21.65.85.14.94.53.62.81.4AI chip optimism in the East,software optimism in the WestGlobally,a slightly higher percentage of respondents believe that hardware components,such as GPUs and CPUs,will be the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom compared to software companies.Respondents based in Mainland China are the least optimistic about software companies benefiting from the AI boom.In contrast,American and European respondents believe that,collectively,enterprise or AI-focused software developers will benefit more than chip providers.Less than 10%of respondents believe users of AI will be the biggest beneficiaries.Half of our respondents doubt that quantum or all-optical computing will be viable within 10 years or“ever”.Respondents working for American companies are almost twice as optimistic about the viability of quantum computing as their peers working for Mainland Chinese companies.OUR OPTIMISTIC INDUSTRYWhich companies will benefit most from artificial intelligence over the next 5 years?When will next-generation fully optical or quantum computing architectures be commercially and technologically viable?27%29%58%50%38%19%16%16%31%10%21%18%25%12%26%21%11%25%12%19%5%13%USArespondentsEurope respondentsTaiwan respondentsMainland China respondentsOther region respondentsGPU andCPU providersAI-focused softwareapplication developersEnterprise softwarecompanies that integrate AI42%13%19%17%Global average9%Hyperscalers and cloudprovidersEnd users12%8%5%3%62%39%50%35%27%53%41%61%0%0%5%0%7%43%48%2%0-5 years6-10 years10+yearsNeverGlobal averageUSA HQed respondentsEurope HQed respondentsTaiwan HQed respondentsMainland China HQedrespondents08AI confidence for US and Taiwan respondents,while Mainland China respondents pin hopes on automotive and packagingRespondents working in Mainland China are most enthusiastic about local companies share gains in the automotive end market,and in the assembly,packaging,and testing industry segment.Those working in the US are most optimistic about the AI end market,and the fabless design and EDA industry segments.Taiwan respondents believe companies there will continue to gain share in wafer manufacturing and lead in the AI segment.Despite PCs,phones and mobile devices continuing to be the largest single segment for semiconductors,there is little optimism in Europe or US that local companies will gain more share in the segment.OUR OPTIMISTIC INDUSTRY which end market?which industry segment?Companies from your region will gain the most global market share over next five years in Artificial IntelligenceIoTAutomotive PCs and mobile devicesElectrification andnew energyQuantum computing26%62%23%39%63%11%41%16%11%14%18%0%0%21%5%26%3%6%3%8%4%0%0%Mainland China respondentsTaiwan respondentsEurope respondentsUSA respondentsAssembly,packaging or testingMaterials and chemicalsWafer manufacturingFabless design or EDATools&equipmentSemiconductorrelated software USA respondentsEurope respondentsTaiwan respondentsMainland China respondents36%18%21%42%3%19%8%23%15%4%42%8%26%6%6%39%0%32%5%14%2%25%5%0910Our“love-hate”relationship with government policiesWe welcome government policy actions when they help us attract capital or talent,but have little appetite for actions that interfere with market and supply chain access.Despite the increasing impact of geopolitics,success in our industry continues to be driven by traditional factors of product,performance and price.indi