经济学人读译Emergingmarkets新兴市场Thegreatslowdown大衰退.doc

Emerging markets
新兴市场

The great slowdown
大衰退

A sticky spell for the emerging world carries warnings for its long-term growth
新兴世界面临的困难时期为其长期发展敲响了警钟①
006 Leaders - Emerging markets.mp3 (2.37 MB, 下载次数: 391)
Jul 21st 2012 | from the print edition

IN THE past decade emerging markets have established themselves as the world’s best sprinters. As serial crises tripped up America and then Europe, China barely broke stride. Other big developing nations paused for breath only briefly. Investors bet heavily that rapid growth in emerging markets was the new normal, while leaders from Beijing to Brasília lectured the world on the virtues of their state-centric economic models.

在过去十年中，新兴市场作为全世界发展最快的经济体这一地位已经确立。美国、欧洲相继深陷系列危机泥潭，踉踉跄跄；而中国却阵脚不乱。其它发展中大国也只是在经济长跑中稍作喘息。投资者认为新兴市场的快速增长是一种新常态，下注豪赌；中国和巴西的领导人则在世界各地发表演讲，宣传以国家为中心的经济模式的种种优点。

Lately, though, the sprinters have started to wheeze. Last week China reported its slowest growth in three years (see article). India recently recorded its weakest performance since 2004. Brazil has virtually stalled. This week the International Monetary Fund sharply cut its growth forecast for three of the four so-called BRICs; only Russia was spared (and even there growth is vulnerable to falling energy prices). Some investors darkly recall the developing world’s crisis-prone history and wonder whether the worst is yet to come.

但最近这些“经济冲刺国家”也开始有些上气不接下气了。中国在上周发布报告，称目前是三年以来经济增长最为缓慢的时期（见另文）。印度经济近来也处于自2004年以来的最低谷。巴西几乎陷入停滞。本周，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对所谓的“金砖四国”②其中之三的增长预测；只有俄罗斯幸免（而即使在俄罗斯，由于能源价格下跌，经济增长也十分脆弱）。有些投资者黯然回首发展中国家那易受危机影响的过去，担心今后是否会出现更为糟糕的情况。

No crisis looms, but serious concern is justified, for the emerging world faces two distinct risks: a cyclical slowdown and a longer-term erosion of potential growth. The first should be reasonably easy to deal with. The second will not.

目前危机尚未逼近，但完全有理由对此加以重视。因为新兴世界面临着两大明确风险：一是周期性衰退，二是长期增长乏力。前者应当较为容易处理，后者就未必如此了。

Revival of the fittest
适者复苏③

By rich-world standards, the emerging markets are still doing exceedingly well. The IMF still reckons developing economies will grow by 5.6% this year. Moreover, this deceleration is partly intentional. When the global financial crisis struck, emerging economies responded energetically: China launched a huge stimulus, Brazil’s state-owned banks lavished credit, interest rates were slashed. They succeeded so well that by 2010 they were forced to reverse course. To squash price pressures they raised interest rates, curbed speculation and allowed their currencies to appreciate. With a lag, that tightening has had the predicted result.

按照发达国家的标准，新兴市场仍然表现得相当不错。IMF预计发展中经济体今年仍将有5.6%的增长。此外，新兴世界的这种减速在一定程度上也是故意为之。当全球金融危机袭来之时，新兴经济体曾积极应对：中国启动了巨额的刺激方案，巴西的国有银行大力发放信贷，利率得到了大幅削减。它们取得了显著成功，以至于到2010年不得不反其道而行之——为了控制价格压力，这些国家提高了利率、抑制投机买卖并允许货币升值。停顿了一段时间之后，这种紧缩措施取得了预期的效果。

Still, the slowdown has proved much sharper than expected. Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is partly to blame. It has sapped demand for the developing world’s manufactured exports and restrained prices of their commodities; South Africa is a notable casualty. European banks had been conduits for foreign money flowing into emerging markets. Now they are pulling back as they grapple with the problems at home.

不过，衰退来的比预期中猛烈许多。欧洲的主权债务危机在一定程度上对此负有责任。该危机降低了对发展中国家制成品出口的需求，并限制了这些国家商品的价格。南非就是明显的受害者。欧洲的银行曾是海外资金流入新兴市场的管道，而现在这些银行正在努力设法解决国内问题，试图将海外资金吸回欧洲。

Fortunately, policymakers in the emerging world have plenty of scope to respond. Whereas target interest rates of central banks are near zero in America, Japan and Europe, they average almost 6% in emerging markets. Fiscal stimulus is a luxury few advanced economies, whose budget deficits average 6% of GDP, can afford; it is still an option in many developing economies, where deficits are a more manageable 2%.

幸运的是，新兴世界的决策者还有足够的回应余地。尽管在美国、日本和欧洲各央行目标利率接近于零，但在新兴市场平均下来却为将近6%。财政刺激极为奢侈，只有少数预算赤字平均为GDP 6%的先进经济体才能承受。许多发展中经济体的预算为更易管理的2%，在这些经济体中，财政刺激仍然是一种选择。

Most important, the fragilities that made emerging economies so susceptible to crisis in the past are now largely absent. Banks have more capital and rely less on fickle wholesale funding than their European peers. Fixed exchange rates were once the rule for developing countries. They were a way to keep down inflation, but they also encouraged excessive borrowing in foreign currencies, creating strains that eventually broke the currency peg. With inflation under much better control, floating exchange rates (China is a big exception) and well-stocked foreign-exchange reserves now dominate in the emerging world, providing protection against falling exports and flighty foreign investors.

最重要的是，过去曾使新兴经济体极易受到危机影响的种种脆弱性现在大多已经不复存在。新兴经济体的银行有了更多的资本，对于不稳定的批发基金的依赖性没有欧洲银行那么大。发展中国家过去曾一直采用固定汇率。固定汇率曾是一种控制通货膨胀的方法，但它也会助长过度借入外币行为，由此产生压力并最终破坏固定汇率制。如今通货膨胀得到了更好的控制，浮动汇率（中国是个大大的例外）和贮量充足的外汇储备在新兴世界中占据了主导位置，用来对抗出口下滑现象和反复无常的海外投资者。

A slump in these countries thus looks unlikely; so, however, does a return to the past decade’s growth rates. China, for one, doesn’t want it. Its economy has become over-reliant on investment; its leaders want to usher in a phase of more sustainable but slower growth, led by consumers. Beyond China, it is increasingly clear that many emerging economies have been growing beyond their underlying potential. Optimists once thought India could sustain Chinese-style growth of over 9% a year; but that led to stubborn inflation and current-account deficits, suggesting that India’s potential growth may be more like 6-7%.

因此，这些国家不太可能出现大萧条；然而，像过去十年那么高的增长率也同样不太可能出现。举例来说，中国就不希望出现过高的增长率。中国经济已经变得过于依赖投资；该国领导人希望开创一个由消费者引导的、较为缓慢但更为稳定的增长局面。在中国之外，可以愈加明显地看到：许多新兴经济体的增长速度已经超出了它们的潜力。乐观主义者曾认为印度可以保持每年9%以上的中国式增长；但这一增长导致了居高不下的通货膨胀以及往来账户赤字，证明印度的潜在增长率更可能在6%到7%之间。

Prepare for the marathon
在马拉松的起跑线上……

In retrospect, some of the emerging world’s economic record-breaking was steroid-driven. One performance-enhancer was China’s appetite for raw materials, which created a commodity boom that supercharged many emerging markets. As that boom subsides, Russia’s dependence on oil and gas makes it particularly vulnerable. Another drug was domestic credit, in particular in Brazil, Turkey and eastern Europe.

回首过往，新兴世界的一些经济创记录现象不过是逞一时之勇罢了④。改善新兴世界状况的因素之一是中国对于原材料的强烈需求。这种需求产生了一种商品繁荣，大大振兴了多处新兴市场。随着这种繁荣趋于平息，俄罗斯对于石油和天然气的依赖性便让该国经济极为脆弱。而另一剂良药就是国内信贷，在巴西、土耳其和东欧尤其如此。

A new period of impressive paciness is possible, but it depends on policies that will make emerging markets fit for the long run. Here the signs are troubling. In Russia, where the priority should be diversification away from excessive dependence on oil and gas, President Vladimir Putin has proposed a round of social spending that in six years could cost 8% of GDP. India has an eye-watering deficit of 9% of GDP, yet Pranab Mukherjee, the recently departed finance minister and soon-to-be anointed president (see article), failed to tackle fuel subsidies that cost 0.8% of GDP. It makes sense to invest some of the fruits of growth in a better safety net for those left behind; it makes no sense to then delay, as India and to some extent Brazil have done, the investment in power and transport infrastructure that is a prerequisite for future growth.

展开新一轮的有力安抚措施是可能的，但这取决于政策调整：需要让新兴市场适应经济长跑。在这一方面，目前的迹象让人不安。俄罗斯应当把重心从对石油和天然气的依赖性转变到经济多样性上来，而总统弗拉基米尔·普京却提议进行一轮在六年内将消耗8% GDP的社会开支。印度的赤字惨不忍睹，占GDP的9%，而最近卸去财政部长一职、即将接受涂油仪式成为总统的普拉纳布·慕克吉（见另文）却未能解决占GDP 0.8%的燃油补贴问题。将部分经济发展的果实用于投资，以更完善的保障措施来支援那些落后经济体，这当然有意义⑤；然而，像印度以及巴西在某种程度上所为的那样，推迟对能源和交通方面基础设施的投资，这就说不通了。这种投资是继续发展的先决条件。

Sadly, many emerging-world governments have interpreted the crisis in rich-world finance as a reason to preserve a more muscular role for the state. China has reserved some sectors for state-owned enterprises. In Brazil the big state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, and the state-controlled banks have become virtual appendages of government policy. Having so much leverage over the economy is indeed helpful during a crisis, but in the long run it will stifle competition, starve the private sector of capital, deter foreign investment and know-how, and breed corruption.

不幸的是，许多新兴世界政府把发达国家的财政危机解读成了让国家继续扮演更强有力角色的理由。中国为国有企业保留了一些部门。在巴西，大型国家控股石油公司巴西石油以及国家控股银行实际上已经成了政府政策的附属品。在危机时期，对经济存在如此影响力的确是有益的。但从长远来看，它将会扼杀竞争、使资本私营部门濒临破产、阻碍海外投资及技术引进并滋生腐败。

When the dust settles, emerging markets will still be growing faster than they did before 2003. But getting back up to the speed of the past decade will mean maintaining the macroeconomic discipline and returning to the microeconomic reforms that made it possible in the first place.

当形势明朗之后，新兴市场仍将继续发展，增速将比2003年以前更快。但若想恢复到过去十年的发展速度，首先需要达成必要条件——在继续秉持宏观经济准则的同时重新开始微观经济改革。

from the print edition | Leaders

译者注:

① spell 此处意为 a short period of time during which sth lasts

② BRICs 即文中出现的 Brazil, Russia, India and China。由于四国的英文名称首字母连起来形似英语单词 brick，因此称为“金砖四国”

③ Revival of the fittest 是套用达尔文的“Survival of the fittest”即著名的“适者生存”。故小标题译为“适者复苏”

④ steroid-driven 直译过来为“由类固醇所驱动”。这里结合文章译为“逞一时之勇”

⑤ safety net:an arrangement that helps to prevent disater if sth goes wrong（防备不测的）保障措施、“安全网”