2020年全球资产管理.pdf

Global Asset Management 2020Protect,Adapt,and InnovateBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,organizations must blend digital and human capabilities.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand business purpose.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,generating results that allow our clients to thrive.Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,organizations must blend digital and human capabilities.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand business purpose.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,generating results that allow our clients to thrive.May 2020|Boston Consulting GroupProtect,Adapt,and InnovateLUBASHA HEREDIASIMON BARTLETTAJOE CARRUBBADEAN FRANKLEKATSUYOSHI KURIHARABENOT MACEDOARDO PALMISANINEIL PARDASANITHOMAS SCHULTEBEN SHERIDANQIN XUGlobal Asset Management 20202|Protect,Adapt,and InnovateCONTENTS 3 INTRODUCTION 5 A SNAPSHOT OF THE INDUSTRY 13 THE ALTERNATIVES REVOLUTION:HOW TO COMPETE IN ASSET MANAGEMENTS LARGEST REMAINING REVENUE POOL 18 THE NEXT WAVE IN DISTRIBUTION:DIFFERENTIATING ON CLIENT EXPERIENCE 22 FOR FURTHER READING 23 NOTE TO THE READERBoston Consulting Group|3The global asset management industry ended 2019 on a high noteonly to face a new chapter of economic turmoil when the coronavirus pandemic broke out in early 2020.In 2019,total assets under management(AuM)grew by 15%,to$89 trillion.Retail clients were the fastest-growing segment,with assets rising by 19%,while institutional client assets grew by 13%.North America,the worlds largest asset management region,showed the strongest growth at 19%,or$7 trillion in value,due to a combination of strong consumer spending,historically low unemployment,and quantitative easing.In China,the second-largest single market after the US,AuM expanded by an estimated 10%in 2019,driven largely by a strong retail investor segment.Yet even when the markets were soaring and asset flows were the highest they had been in a decade,the asset management industry faced a set of structural challenges brought on by fee com-pression and mounting cost pressuresand the result was a marginal decrease in profitability.In the year ahead,it will be essential for asset managers to address their asset flows and profitability through continued structural changes in such areas as product innovation,cost structure,and growth strategies.In this 18th annual BCG report on the global asset management in-dustry,we look at the industrys challenges and opportunities through the lens of one of the strongest asset classes:alternatives.This catego-ry comprises nearly half of all global asset management revenues,de-spite representing only 16%of AuM,and we expect to see alternatives approach 50%of global revenues by 2024.One of the tailwinds driving this growth is a rise in nontraditional return profiles for some product subcategories.Still,we found that not all alternatives are created equal.Private marketsincluding private equity,real estate,infrastructure,and pri-vate debthave grown assets at a breakneck compound annual growth rate of 9%since 2008,and they currently represent 60%of rev-enues in alternatives.Hedge funds,by contrast,have seen their asset growth decline as overall returns over the past decade have trailed the S&P,although capital still flows disproportionately into the larger funds,with AuM of more than$5 billion.At a time of fierce competi-tion for limited investor capital,asset managers in the alternatives space will need to identify opportunities to rebuild and grow,estab-lishing an edge through technology,expertise,and scale.Moreover,in the next big wave of competition,successful industry players will need to create world-class client experiences that extend INTRODUCTION4|Protect,Adapt,and Innovatebeyond performance at a given cost and become something closer to an all-encompassing value proposition for the client.To that end,the firms that lead in distribution are beginning to put a number of best practices into effect.They are creating data-driven business intelli-gence to help the entire organization develop a deeper understanding of client needs.To enable that intelligence,they are building strong data science capabilities that operate in partnership with sales and marketing.The roles of these two functions are evolving as marketing teams become key players rather than just serving a support role.Top firms are also bringing the personalized needs of clients into the prod-uct development process,increasingly tailoring their products to such areas as environ mental,social,and governance(ESG)investing.And they are revamping their internal cultures to ensure that the compen-sation structure pays attention to increasing customer satisfaction as well as to such traditional business metrics as meeting sales goals.In working with investors from the insurance industry,which holds nearly 15%of total AuM globally but is likely to face challenges in the present economy,asset managers have an unprecedented opportunity to add value by acting more as partners and advisors to investors.To do so,however,they must alter their service model,focusing on such needs as risk management support and flexibility in products and pricing.The year 2020 will not be an easy one for the industry,but it could mark the start of a pivotal era in which investors become more judi-cious about who they trust with their assets,and in which the asset managers that flourish are those that innovate and evolve to fit the new realities ahead.Boston Consulting Group|5Following an AuM decline of$2 trillion in 2018,asset managers made a significant comeback in 2019.Total AuM in nearly every region grew by a double-digit percentagethanks to strong market performance and net flow figures.Yet despite this impressive rate of growth,structural challenges caused by fee compression and mounting cost pressures persisted,to the point that industry profitabil-ity decreased marginally.The market storm of early 2020 has only in-tensified these challenges,as asset managers find themselves in uncharted territory.After the crash of 2008,the asset management in-dustry benefited from a market rebound that produced the longest bull market in history.In 2020,however,firms must recover flows and profitability through more fundamental changes to their business models.Here is a look at the industry in 2019 and our perspec-tive on the year ahead.AuM Grew by$12 Trillion The total value of global AuM grew by 15%in 2019 to about$89 trillion,up from about$77 trillion in 2018.(See Exhibit 1.)Retail clients,A SNAPSHOT OF THE INDUSTRYGlobal AuM($trillions)4.00.51.71.51.53.11.23.4201720152003200720182014201620192008201330.738.563.266.071.179.276.988.7200320172015200820162014201920185%7%15%Net flows as a share of beginning-of-year AuM(%)Sources:BCG Global Asset Management Market-Sizing Database 2020;BCG Global Asset Management Benchmarking Database 2020.Note:Market sizing includes assets professionally managed in exchange for management fees;AuM includes captive AuM of insurance groups or pension funds where AuM is delegated to asset management entities with fees paid;44 markets are covered globally,including offshore AuM.For all countries where the currency is not the US dollar,we applied the end-of-year 2019 exchange rate to all years in order to synchronize current and historic data;values differ from those in prior studies because of fluctuations in exchange rates,revised methodology,and changes in source data.Exhibit 1|2019 Asset Levels and Money Flows6|Protect,Adapt,and Innovaterepresenting 42%of the global assets at$37 trillion,grew even faster,at 19%in 2019,while institutional clients,representing 58%of the market grew by 13%to$52 trillion.Market performance was the primary driver of this growth,contributing roughly three-quarters of the AuM growth in 2019 as mar-kets across regions posted record highs for the period since the 20082009 financial crisis.The MSCI World Index realized a 27%return for the yearits strongest showing since 2009,when it achieved a return of 35%.Record net new asset flows painted an en-couraging picture of robust investor demand.Net flows totaled$2.6 trillion globally,ac-counting for 3.4%of global AuM at the start of the yeara significantly higher proportion than the historical average of 1%to 2%.The main cause of these higher-than-ever net flows was heavy demand from retail investors,who contributed net flows of 4.7%in 2019,compared with 1.8%for institutional inves-tors.Retails standout year was driven by a strong confluence of wealth accumulation,bullish market conditions,and improved ac-cess to investment platforms and vehicles.North America Led the Pack;Europe FollowedNorth America,the worlds largest asset man-agement region,experienced the strongest growth in 2019.(See Exhibit 2.)AuM in the region increased by 19%,adding$6.7 trillion in value.Asset managers in North America recovered from a bearish 5%decline in 2018 by an impressive 24-percentage-point spreadMuch of the AuM expansion in the region is attributable to quantitative easing,strong consumer spending,and a historically low un-employment rate.These tailwinds helped in-vestors overcome performance threats arising from a potential trade war and early-stage re-cession scares,resulting in one of the regions most robust growth periods in recent years.18.735.442.02008201820197%19%11.620.222.82008201820196%13%0.51.71.920192008201814%11%0.81.31.42018201920085%11%2.110.111.220082018201917%11%3.75.96.62008201820195%12%Asia(excludingAustralia and Japan)Middle East and AfricaLatin AmericaAuM($trillions)Annual growth,20182019Annual growth,2008201838.576.988.72019200820187%15%North AmericaEuropeJapan and AustraliaGLOBAL Sources:BCG Global Asset Management Market Sizing 2020;The Economist Intelligence Unit;Strategic Insight;Willis Towers Watson;local organizations,including regulators;press;BCG analysis.Note:Market sizing corresponds to assets sourced from each region and professionally managed in exchange for management fees;it includes captive AuM of insurance groups or pension funds where AuM is delegated to asset management entities with fees paid.Overall,44 markets are covered globallyincluding offshore AuM(which is not included in any region);2019 values were extrapolated on the basis of retail and institutional segment 2018 AuM in local currency and,mostly,pension growth rates for institutional business and mutual fund growth rates for retail business.Where data for year-end 2019 was not yet available,it was extrapolated using capital market performance and asset allocation of the respective product(retail mutual funds or pension/insurance investors).North America=Canada and the United States;Europe=Austria,Belgium,Czech Republic,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,Netherlands,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Russia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,and United Kingdom;Asia(excluding Australia and Japan)=China,Hong Kong,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,and Thailand;Middle East and Africa=selected sovereign wealth funds of the region and mutual funds,Morocco,and South Africa;Latin America=Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,and Mexico.For all countries where the currency is not the US dollar,end-of-year 2019 exchange rate is applied to all years to synchronize current and historic data.Values differ from those in prior studies due to exchange rate fluctuations,revised methodology and changes in source data.Exhibit 2|2019 Saw Double-Digit Growth,with Developed Regions as Top PerformersBoston Consulting Group|7Europe,the second largest region by assets,realized strong AuM growth,too,rising by 13%to$22.8 trillion.Europes biggest market,the UK,held 27%of market share,or$6.1 tril-lion.That represented an expansion of 13%for the year,and it occurred despite looming Brexit concerns.The institutional segment,which represents 79%of the UKs AuM and is a major driver of the nations wealth,grew by 13%during the year.France,another leading European market,with$3.5 trillion in AuM,also has a strong institutional orientation;insti tutional assets there accounted for close to 81%of AuM,expanding by 9%during 2019,while retail AuM growth was muted at 4%.The institutional segment dominates Germa-ny,too,where it represents more than 70%of total AuM;it experienced strong growth in both client segments,leading to 15%overall growth in the market.Germany closed the year with$3.1 trillion in AuM.Growth was slower in the Asia-Pacific region.The most developed markets thereJapan and Australia,representing a combined$6.6 trilliongrew collectively by 12%.Both mar-kets benefited materially from the years strong market performance.Assets in other Asia-Pacific countries grew at a slightly slow-er clip of 11%to$11.2 trillion.This growth rate was heavily influenced by China,the second-largest asset management market in the world,where nonchannel AuM(excluding bank wealth management products and trust companies)is estimated to have expanded by 10%during 2019,reaching$7.3 trillion.The Chinese asset management industry tilts to-ward retail investors,which account for 60%of the countrys total AuM and showed strong growth of 14%during 2019.A recent BCG Focus found that rapid changes are taking place as a result of regulatory amendments,increased openness toward foreign players,and rising wealth and innovation.South Korea was another strong regional per-former,as its AuM rose to$1.1 trillion,a 12%increase for the year.Institutional investors,which dominate the South Korean market at 84%of total AuM,grew by 13%,more than twice the rate of the countrys retail investor asset growth(5%).In contrast,Hong Kongs asset management industry grew by 14%to$1.0 trillion,driven primarily by the retail segment,which grew by 17%a