2020年全球风险报告.pdf

The Global RisksReport 2020Insight Report 15th EditionIn partnership with Marsh&McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group3.04.02.52.53.03.54.0average3.313.47Failure ofurban planningA As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset bubblesDeflationF Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failureC Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re ef fa ai il lu ur re eCritical infrastructurefailureF Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crisesU Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemploymentI Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit tradeE En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnergy price shockU Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflationE Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtreme weatherC Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti io on nf fa ai il lu ur re eClimate actionfailureB Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss sBiodiversity lossN Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disastersH Hu umma an n-mma ad de ee en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d di is sa as st te er rHuman-madeenvironmental disastersN Na at ti io on na al lg go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eNationalgovernancefailureG Gl lo ob ba al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eGlobal governancefailureI In nt te er rs st ta at te ec co on nfl fli ic ct tInterstateconflictT Te er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist attacksS St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapseWWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss sd de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on nWeapons of massdestructionF Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crisesI In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migrationS So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial instabilityI In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseasesWWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crisesA Ad dv ve er rs se e t te ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al la ad dv va an nc ce es sAdverse technologicaladvancesI In nf fo or rmma at ti io on ni in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re eb br re ea ak kd do ow wn nInformationinfrastructurebreakdownC Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacksD Da at ta a f fr ra au ud d o or r t th he ef ft tData fraud or theftaverage3.5ImpactLikelihoodThe Global Risks Landscape 2020Top 10 risks in terms ofLikelihoodCategoriesTop 10 risks in terms ofImpactExtreme weatherClimate action failureNatural disastersBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersData fraud or theftCyberattacksWater crisesGlobal governance failureAsset bubblesClimate action failureWeapons of mass destructionBiodiversity lossExtreme weatherWater crisesInformation infrastructure breakdownNatural disastersCyberattacksHuman-made environmental disastersInfectious diseases12345678910123456789105.01.05.0plottedareaNote:Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5,1representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur.They also assess the impacton each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5(1:minimal impact,2:minor impact,3:moderate impact,4:severe impact and5:catastrophic impact).See Appendix B for more details.To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks areabbreviated;see Appendix A for the full name and description.Source:World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 20192020.EconomicGeopoliticalEnvironmentalSocietalTechnologicalSource:World Economic Forum 2007-2020,Global Risks Reports.Note:Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years,as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon.For example,cyberattacks,income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012.Some global risks have been reclassified:water crises and income disparity were recategorized as societal risks in the 2015 and 2014 Global Risks Reports,respectively.Figure I:The Evolving Risks Landscape,200720201st2nd3rd4th5th1st2nd3rd4th5thTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of LikelihoodTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact2010200920082007201120122013201420152016201720182019202020102009200820072020201120122013201420152016201720182019EconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnologicalWeapons of mass destructionWeapons of mass destructionAsset price collapseFiscal crisesFinancial failureFinancial failure Climate action failureDeglobalization(developed)Climate change Water crises Water crisesExtreme weather Extreme weather Oil price spikesGeopolitical conflict Food crisesWater crises Water crises Chronic diseaseAsset price collapseNatural disastersFiscal crisesAsset price collapseDeglobalization(developed)Oil and gas price spikeChronic diseasesFiscal crisesBlow up in asset pricesDeglobalization(developed)China hard landingOil price shockPandemicsBlow up in asset pricesDeglobalizationInterstate and civil warsPandemicsOil price shockEnergyprice volatility Energyprice volatility Weapons of massdestruction FiscalimbalancesFiscal crisesClimate action failureInfrastructurebreakdownWater crises Unemployment Water crisesInfectious diseasesWeapons of massdestructionInterstate conflictWeapons of mass destructionEnergy price shockWater crisesInvoluntary migrationWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather Water crisesNatural disastersWeapons of mass destructionExtreme weather Water crises Natural disastersFiscalimbalancesClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureExtreme weatherExtreme weatherAsset price collapseStorms and cyclones Income disparity Income disparity China economic slowdownFloodingFiscal imbalancesFiscal imbalancesNatural disastersNatural disastersBiodiversity lossBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersChronic diseaseCorruptionGreenhouse gas emissionsData fraud or theft Fiscal crisesBiodiversity lossCyberattacksWater crisesCyberattacksGlobal governancegaps Climate change Water crisesPopulation ageingIncome disparityUnemployment Climate action failureCyberattacks Extreme weatherInterstate conflictFailure of nationalgovernanceState collapse or crisisUnemploymentExtreme weatherInvoluntary migrationInterstateconflict Natural catastrophes Extreme weatherExtreme weather Natural disastersTerrorist attacksData fraud or theftInvoluntary migrationExtreme weather CyberattacksData fraud or theftNatural disastersGreenhouse gas emissionsClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureClimate action failureInfrastructure breakdownOil price shockChina hard landingBlow up in asset pricesChronic diseasesClimate action failureBlow up in asset pricesFailed and failing statesOil price shockChronic diseasesMiddle East instabilityAsset price collapseChronic diseasesGlobal governance gapsDeglobalization(emerging)China economic slowdown3.04.02.52.53.03.54.0average3.313.47Failure ofurban planningA As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset bubblesDeflationF Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failureC Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re ef fa ai il lu ur re eCritical infrastructurefailureF Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crisesU Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemploymentI Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit tradeE En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnergy price shockU Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflationE Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtreme weatherC Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti io on nf fa ai il lu ur re eClimate actionfailureB Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss sBiodiversity lossN Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disastersH Hu umma an n-mma ad de ee en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d di is sa as st te er rHuman-madeenvironmental disastersN Na at ti io on na al lg go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eNationalgovernancefailureG Gl lo ob ba al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eGlobal governancefailureI In nt te er rs st ta at te ec co on nfl fli ic ct tInterstateconflictT Te er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist attacksS St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapseWWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss sd de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on nWeapons of massdestructionF Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crisesI In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migrationS So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial instabilityI In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseasesWWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crisesA Ad dv ve er rs se e t te ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al la ad dv va an nc ce es sAdverse technologicaladvancesI In nf fo or rmma at ti io on ni in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re eb br re ea ak kd do ow wn nInformationinfrastructurebreakdownC Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacksD Da at ta a f fr ra au ud d o or r t th he ef ft tData fraud or theftaverage3.5ImpactLikelihoodThe Global Risks Landscape 2020Top 10 risks in terms ofLikelihoodCategoriesTop 10 risks in terms ofImpactExtreme weatherClimate action failureNatural disastersBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersData fraud or theftCyberattacksWater crisesGlobal governance failureAsset bubblesClimate action failureWeapons of mass destructionBiodiversity lossExtreme weatherWater crisesInformation infrastructure breakdownNatural disastersCyberattacksHuman-made environmental disastersInfectious diseases12345678910123456789105.01.05.0plottedareaEconomicGeopoliticalEnvironmentalSocietalTechnologicalFigure II:The Global Risks Landscape 2020Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020.Note:Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5,1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur.They also assessed the impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5,1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a catastrophic impact.To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks are abbreviated;see Appendix A for the full name and description.Likelihood2.53.03.54.03.03.54.0Average3.32Average3.47I In nf fo or rmma at ti io on ni in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re eb br re ea ak kd do ow wn nInformationinfrastructurebreakdownA As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset bubblesD De efl fla at ti io on nDeflationF Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failureC Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re ef fa ai il lu ur re eCritical infrastructurefailureF Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crisesU Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemploymentI Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit tradeE En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnergy price shockU Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflationE Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtreme weatherC Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti io on nf fa ai il lu ur re eClimate actionfailureB Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss sBiodiversity lossN Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disastersH Hu umma an n-mma ad de ee en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d di is sa as st te er rHuman-madeenvironmentaldisastersN Na at ti io on na al lg go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eNationalgovernancefailureI In nt te er rs st ta at te ec co on nfl fli ic ct tInterstateconflictT Te er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist attacksS St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapseWWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss sd de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on nWeapons of massdestructionF Fa ai il lu ur re e o of fu ur rb ba an n p pl la an nn ni in ng gFailure ofurban planningF Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crisesI In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migrationS So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial instabilityI In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseasesWWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crisesA Ad dv ve er rs se e t te ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al la ad dv va an nc ce es sAdverse technologicaladvancesC Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacksD Da at ta a f fr ra au ud do or r t th he ef ft tData fraudor theftG Gl lo ob ba al lg go ov ve er rn na an nc ce ef fa ai il lu ur re eGlobalgovernancefailureRespondentsMultistakeholderShapersNote:We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from theGlobal Shapers as to the multi-stakeholder sample(see Appendix B:Global RisksPerception Survey and Methodology).We received 236 responses for Part 1“The World in 2020”and 190 for Part 2“Assessment of Global Risks”.The data for Part 3“Global Risk Interconnections”was not used.The Global Shapers Community is the WorldEconomic Forums network of young peopledriving dialogue,action and change.The Global Shapers Risks Landscape 20203.02.53.54.03.03.54.0EconomicUnmanageableinflationIllicit tradeEnergy price shockFiscal crisesUnemploymentFinancialfailureDeflationCriticalinfra-structurefailureAsset bubbles3.02.53.54.03.03.54.0GeopoliticalWeapons ofmass destructionTerroristattacksStatecollapseNationalgovernancefailureInterstateconflictGlobal governance failureSocietal3.02.53.54.03.03.54.0Water crisesSocial instabilityInvoluntarymigrationInfectiousdiseasesFoodcrisesFailure ofurban planningTechnological3.02.53.54.03.03.54.0InformationinfrastructurebreakdownData fraud or theftCyberattacksAdversetechnologicaladvancesLikelihoodImpactLikelihoodImpactLikelihoodImpact3.02.53.54.03.03.54.0EnvironmentalHuman-madeenvironmentaldisastersNatural disastersExtremeweatherBiodiversitylossClimateaction failureFigure III:The Global Shapers Risk Landscape 2020Source:World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020.The Global Shapers Community is the WorldEconomic Forums network of young peopledriving dialogue,action and change.Note:We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from theGlobal Shapers as to the multistakeholder sample(see Appendix B:Global RisksPerception Survey and Methodology).We received 236 responses for Part 1“The World in 2020”and 190 for Part 2“Assessment of Global Risks”.The data for Part 3“Global Risk Interconnections”were not used.Likelihood2.53.03.54.03.03.54.0Average3.32Average3.47I In nf fo or rmma at ti io on ni in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re eb br re ea ak kd do ow wn nInformationinfrastructurebreakdownA As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset bubblesD De efl fla at ti io on nDeflationF Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failureC Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re ef fa ai il lu ur re eCritical infrastructurefailureF Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crisesU Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemploymentI Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit tradeE En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnerg