世界银行2050年展望：战略方向说明.pdf

1World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteCO2+0.77+2.35+1.76+11.20+0.28+4.41+6.27+1.37Supporting Countries to Meet Long-Term Goals of Decarbonization3World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteTable of ContentsForeword.5Acknowledgments.6Abbreviations and Acronyms.7Executive Summary .81Introduction.111.1 Purpose and Audience.111.2 Scope and Structure.122.Global Context.132.1 Shifting Development Trends.132.2 Global Impacts of Climate Change.142.3 Climate Impacts on Key Sectors .162.3.1 Water .162.3.2 Food and agriculture.162.3.3 Energy .172.3.4 Transportation .172.4 Global Emissions Trends .182.4.1 Global GHG emissions from key sectors.182.4.2 Emission reduction pathways .192.4.3 Impact of COVID-19 on global emissions .202.4.4 Financing needs for decarbonization .203.Climate Action and Long-Term Strategies.223.1 Global Progress on Climate Change.223.2 Long-Term Strategies and Decarbonization.233.3 Benefits of Long-Term Climate Action.243.4 Climate Action:Challenges over the Long Term .253.4.1 Tensions and systemic challenges.253.4.2 Scenarios and uncertainties.274.Climate Risks and Opportunities in Decarbonization for Financial Institutions.304.1 Risks of Inaction.3042 Opportunities in Decarbonization and Resilience .315.The World Bank Outlook 2050 Initiative:Approach and Methodology.326.World Bank Priorities to Support Countries on Long-Term Decarbonization Goals.347.Economy-Wide Actions .357.1 Strategic Direction 1:Embed Long-Term Climate Priorities in Country Macroeconomic Frameworks .357.1.1 World Bank engagement to date.357.1.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.367.2 Strategic Direction 2:Embed Long-Term Climate Planning in National Budgets and Expenditure Frameworks.377.2.1 World Bank engagement to date.387.2.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.387.3 Strategic Direction 3:Embed Long-Term Climate Objectives in Financial Sector Regulations and Incentives.407.3.1 World Bank engagement to date.417.3.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.424World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions Note7.4 Strategic Direction 4:Embed Long-Term Climate Objectives into Systems Planning .447.4.1 World Bank engagement to date.447.4.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.458.Advancing Cross-Cutting Solutions .488.1 Priority Area 1:Transforming Food Systems .518.1.1 World Bank engagement to date.528.1.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.538.2 Priority Area 2:Protecting Land-Based Ecosystems and Enhancing Carbon Sinks.548.2.1 World Bank engagement to date .558.2.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance .568.3 Priority Area 3:Transforming Energy Systems.588.3.1 World Bank engagement to date.598.3.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.608.4 Priority Area 4:Transforming Mobility.628.4.1 World Bank engagement to date.638.4.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.648.5 Priority Area 5:Building Low-Carbon,More Resilient Urban Areas.668.5.1 World Bank engagement to date.678.5.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.678.6 Priority Area 6:Transforming Water Systems.688.6.1 World Bank engagement to date.698.6.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.708.7 Priority Area 7:Transforming the Blue Economy.728.7.1 World Bank engagement to date.738.7.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.748.8 Priority Area 8:Digital Transformation.758.8.1 World Bank engagement to date.778.8.2 New frontiers for lending and technical assistance.779.Resources and Capacity to Deliver on Long-Term Climate Priorities .799.1 Develop New Framework Tools and Approaches .799.2 Tailored Approaches for Regional and Country Implementation.809.3 Financing for Outlook 2050 Priorities.809.4 Aligning Short-and Medium-Term Crisis Response with Long-Term Priorities.819.5 Incentivize Internal Efforts to Support Long-Term Cross-Sectoral Climate Action .829.6 Build Internal Skills and Capacity to Respond to Country Demand .829.7 Global Strategic Partnerships .8210.The Way Forward .8410.1 Next Steps.85References.86Appendix A Outlook 2050:Approach and Methodology.925World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteClimate change remains an acute threat to global development and shared prosperity.Its impacts are expected to intensify even as the world grapples with the COVID-19 crisis that is hitting health,livelihoods and economies.All countriesbut particularly the poorest and most vulnerablecould now face the compound impacts of the twin challenges of climate and COVID,as we saw during Cyclone Amphan,where authorities in Bangladesh and India had to handle competing goals of evacuation and lockdown to keep communities safe.As we support our clients in responding to and building back from the current economic challenges,we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to help them align development pathways with the decarbonization of their economies.Doing so by mid-century,will be our surest way to secure a safer climate for all.And the best part:across most sectors and countries,these longer-term goals can also be met by tackling shorter term needs,including creating new jobs and markets and boosting economic growth.The World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions Note is especially timely as it lays out economy-wide actions and cross-cutting solutions that can help economies decarbonize and develop sustainably.At the macro-economic level,this note identifies four pillars that can drive a whole of economy approach to integrating long-term climate objectives:namely,macroeconomic frameworks,national budgets,financial sector regulations and incentives,and systems planning.It also examines eight cross-sectoral solutions that will drive this forward:food systems,land use,energy,mobility,urban areas,oceans,water,and digital transformation.Across each of these areas,the report details our approach with an overview of World Bank engagement to date and identifies potential new frontiers for country engagements,technical assistance,and lending.Implementing these actions is in line with our efforts to integrate climate considerations into national policy planning,investment design,budgeting,public procurement and implementation and evaluation;and increase engagement with Ministries of Finance and Planning in the design and implementation of transformative low-carbon and climate-resilient policies.Cross-sectoral solutions,like those identified in this Note,will be key to supporting countries develop integrated mid-century low carbon and climate resilient strategies.Looking ahead from this moment in 2020,it clear that supporting countries building back better means not only helping them reduce the multiple impacts of this crisis,but also laying the foundations for dealing with the next one.The climate challenge ahead cannot be underestimated.That is why undertaking long-term climate action today can help strengthen development progress already made and secure a safer,more prosperous future for billions.Juergen Voegele Vice President for Sustainable Development World BankForeword6World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteAcknowledgmentsThe World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions Note was prepared by a team led by Neha Mukhi.The core team comprised Suneira Rana,Sara Mills-Knapp,and Eskedar Bahru Gessesse.This Strategic Directions Note benefitted from the hard work of Ana Bucher,Rissa Camins,Viviane Clement,Dominik Englert,S.Tambi Matambo,Afua Oguah,Alexandrina PlatonovaOquab,and Suphachol Suphachalasai.The team is grateful for the guidance from Neeraj Prasad,Practice Manager,and the strategic vision and direction of Bernice K.Van Bronkhorst,Global Director of Climate Change Group under the leadership of Juergen Voegele,Vice President of Sustainable Development Group,World Bank.This work would not have been possible without the innovative thinking and future vision of John Roome and Stephen Hammer who were instrumental in the inception and design of the work.The extended team was composed of Kazi Fateha Ahmed,Anam Basnet,Nikunj Prakash Beria,Vaaruni Eashwar,Oluwafemi Faleye,Ronald Halim,Andrea V.Prada Hernandez,Silke Heuser,Shibani Pandey,Angela Soriano Quevedo,Nuwan Suriyagoda,and Michael Vaislic.The team is extremely thankful for the valuable technical guidance from the focal points across various Global Practices and Regional Vice-Presidential Units of the World Bank.This included Greg Browder,Raffaello Cervigni,Christophe Crepin,Ashraf El-Arini,Peter D.Ellis,Nathan Engle,Erick Fernandes,Eduardo Ferreira,Dirk Heine,Niels B.Holm-Nielsen,Shafick Hoossein,Ashok Kumar,Kanta Kumari,Stephen Ling,Luisa Masutti,Helena Naber,Ambar Narayan,Trang Van Nguyen,Grzegorz Peszko,Christian Peter,Mather Pfeiffenberger,Klas Sander,Lia Sieghart,Chandra Shekhar Sinha,Natalya Stankevich,and Jane Treadwell.The team would like to acknowledge the following colleagues,who kindly agreed to serve as peer reviewers,for their invaluable feedback:Ademola Braimoh,Karan Capoor,Christian Eigen-Zucchi,Peter D.Ellis,Onur Erdem,Erick Fernandes,Adrian Fozzard,Chandrasekar Govindarajalu,Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep,Astrid Herdis Jacobsen,Sean Nelson,Kulwinder Singh Rao,Martijn Gert Jan Regelink,Diego Juan Rodriguez,Carlo Maria Rossotto,and Fiona Elizabeth Stewart.Other valuable guidance was provided by Simon Black,Debabrata Chattopadhyay,Stephane Hallegatte,Christopher Head,Muthukumara Mani,Shagun Mehrotra,Marcelo Mena,Grzegorz Peszko,Marc Sadler,and Lia Sieghart.The foresight workshops were designed and conducted by Global Knowledge Initiative(GKI).The team also greatly benefited from discussions with external experts,namely the 2050 Pathways Platform,the New Climate Economy,the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL),who shared insights from their experience on long-term strategies for countries.Visibility and launch of the report were supported by Ferzina Banaji,with Catherine Sear,Isabel Saldarriaga Arango,and Joana Francisca das Neves Lopes.The team thanks Chandni Dinakaran for her support in the publication process.This work would not have been possible without the guidance and unwavering support from Barbara Machado,Paula Garcia,Liberty Ramirez Espiritu,Beaulah Noble,and Vidya Mahesh.Editor:Marion Davis Design:Brad Amburn7World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteAbbreviations and AcronymsBAPPENASMinistry of National Development Planning(Indonesia)BAUBusiness as UsualBECCSBioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage BRTBus Rapid TransitCCPERClimate Change Public Expenditure ReviewCCUSCarbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage CGIARConsultative Group on International Agricultural ResearchCORSIACarbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International AviationCPFCountry Partnership FrameworkCSAClimate-smart Agriculture CSAIPClimate-smart Agricultural Investment PlanCSPConcentrated Solar PowerDDPLACDeep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America and the Caribbean DE4ADigital Economy for Africa MoonshotDRFIPDisaster Risk Financing Insurance ProgramEAPPEastern Africa Power PoolERCEnergy Research CenterESCOEnergy Service CompanyESGEnvironmental,Social and GovernanceETCEnergy Transitions CommissionEVElectric VehicleFAOFood and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsFCPFForest Carbon Partnership FacilityFCVFragility,Conflict and ViolenceFIPForest Investment ProgramFSAPFinancial Sector Assessment ProgramFSBFinancial Stability BoardGDP Gross Domestic ProductGFDRRGlobal Facility for Disaster Risk ReductionGHGGreenhouse GasGPGlobal PracticeGPSGlobal Program on SustainabilityGt CO2eGigatons of Carbon Dioxide equivalentIAISInternational Association of Insurance SupervisorsIBRDInternational Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentICAOInternational Civil Aviation OrganizationICTInformation and Communication TechnologyIDAInternational Development AssociationIDCOLInfrastructure Development Company Limited(Bangladesh)IEAInternational Energy AgencyIFCInternational Finance CorporationIHAInternational Hydropower AssociationIMFInternational Monetary FundIMOInternational Maritime Organization IOPSInternational Organization of Pension SupervisorsIoTInternet of ThingsIOSCOInternational Organization of Securities CommissionsIPCCInternational Panel on Climate ChangeIRENAInternational Renewable Energy AgencyITFInternational Transport ForumIUWMIntegrated Urban Water Management LCDILow Carbon Development Initiative(Indonesia)LDCLeast Developed CountryLTSLong-term StrategyMDBMultilateral Development BankMIGAMultilateral Investment Guarantee AgencyMRVMonitoring,Reporting,and VerificationMt CO2Metric Tons of Carbon DioxideMTEFMedium-term Expenditure FrameworkNGFSNetwork for Greening the Financial System NDCNationally Determined ContributionNGONon-governmental OrganizationOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPBLNetherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyPFMPublic Financial Management PMEHPollution Management and Environmental HealthPPPPublic-Private PartnershipPROFORThe Program on Forests PVPhotovoltaic REDD+Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation(plus supporting roles)REIPPPRenewable Energy Independent Power Procurement Program(South Africa)SCDStrategic Country DiagnosticsSDGSustainable Development GoalSEDAPALLima Water Service(Peru)SIDSSmall Island Developing StateSOEState-owned EnterpriseSUVSports Utility VehicleTCFDTask Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures TWhTerawatt hourUNCTADThe United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNDESAUnited Nations Department of Economic and Social AffairsUNEPUnited Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCCUN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeVATValue Added TaxWAVESWealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services8World Bank Outlook 2050:Strategic Directions NoteClimate change poses huge risks to countries long-term development,economic growth and stability.Already,droughts,heat waves,floods and other extreme events are causing enormous damage,often reversing hard-won development gains.In the medium and long term,it has critical implications for poverty,food security,health,productivity,and quality of life.A bold economic transformation is needed to ensure a safe and prosperous future.The Paris Agreement laid the foundation,inviting countries to pledge immediate action to reduce emissions,then keep ratcheting up ambition to reach net-zero emissions by the second half of the century.The World Bank is committed to helping countries realize the vision of the Paris Agreement,to reduce climate risk while alleviating poverty,building shared prosperity,and promoting sustainable development.It also recognizes its crucial role in aligning finance flows with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions and climate-resilient development.Decarbonizing the global economy requires going well beyond the ambition of the first round of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs),which would only limit warming to 2.73.7C.Indeed,a continued focus on short-and medium-term targets(such as 2020 or 2030)co