2021年世界贸易统计评论.pdf

-0.2-0.7-3.3-5.40.04.3-15.593.7111.72019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1-14%-18%Merchandise trade volumeComputer servicesFinancial servicesInsurance and pension services3%4%8%Personal,cultural and recreational servicesConstructionWorld TradeStatisticalReview2021About the WTOThe World Trade Organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,predictably and freely as possible.About this publicationWorld Trade Statistical Review provides a detailed analysis of the latest developments in world trade.It is the WTOs flagship statistical publication and is produced on an annual basis.For more informationAll data used in this report,as well as additional charts and tables not included,can be downloaded from the WTO web site at www.wto.org/statisticsI.Introduction 4 Acknowledgements 6 A message from Director-General 7II.Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 8 World trade overview 10 Merchandise trade 12 Commercial services 15 Leading traders 18 Least-developed countries 19III.World trade and economic growth,2020-21 20 Trade and GDP in 2020 and early 2021 22 Merchandise trade volume 23 Commodity prices 26 Exchange rates 27 Merchandise and services trade values 28 Leading indicators of trade 31 Economic recovery from COVID-19 34IV.Composition,definitions&methodology 40 Composition of geographical and economic groupings 42 Definitions and methodology 42 Specific notes for selected economies 49 Statistical sources 50 Abbreviations and symbols 51V.Statistical tables 523World Trade Statistical Review 2021 10Acknowledgements06A message from Director-General07Introduction 4Chapter I11 5AcknowledgementsThis publication has been prepared under the direction of Robert Koopman,Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division,and the International Trade Statistics Section.The coordination of the report was undertaken by Christophe Degain and Florian Eberth.Statistical research,data compilation and the preparation of estimates were conducted by Barbara dAndrea-Adrian,Shradha Bhatia,Lori Chang,Christophe Degain,Florian Eberth,Zineb Haj Nassar,Coleman Nee,Steen Wettstein,and Ying Yan.Contributions to this publication were also provided by the WTOs Market Access Intelligence Section and Research Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division.The International Trade Statistics Section also wishes to thank colleagues from the Information and External Relations Division(IERD)and the Languages Documentation and Information Management Division(LDIMD)whose collaboration is vital in the production of this report.In particular,recognition is due to Anthony Martin,Serge Marin-Pache and Steve Cooper in IERD and to the French and Spanish translators in LDIMD.Finally,we wish to thank the users of WTO statistics for their constructive suggestions on how to improve our statistical output.This regular feedback allows us to constantly refine the data we provide.World Trade Statistical Review 2021 6A message from Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-IwealaNgozi Okonjo-Iweala Director-GeneralThe COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating consequences across the world.Millions of people have lost their lives,and large sections of the worlds population,particularly in developing and least developed countries,remain unvaccinated.The worst economic downturn since the 1930s has disrupted livelihoods and businesses everywhere.Extreme poverty and hunger are on the rise,and employment is well below the pre-crisis trend.This publication presents recent trends in world trade and seeks to provide statistical insights on the trade impact of COVID-19.In 2020,the value of world merchandise exports declined by 8 per cent while services trade contracted by 21 per cent.The most severe impacts of the pandemic were felt in the second quarter of the year,when services trade dropped by a record 30 per cent as travel and transport were severely affected,while goods trade fell by 23 per cent,both in value terms.Trade began to recover as of mid-2020,but the effects of COVID-19 have varied significantly across countries and regions.In volume terms,which strip out the effects of fluctuating prices,Asias merchandise trade was down by only 0.5 per cent in 2020,compared to the global decline of 5.3 per cent.Asias resilience was due to the relative success of many countries at containing the viruss spread in early 2020,together with the regions role as a leading global supplier of consumer goods and medical products.In the first quarter of 2021,merchandise export volumes were up in Asia and Europe.They were down slightly in South and Central America and North America,and more substantially in Africa and the Middle East.Across manufacturing sectors,the automotive sector suffered the most,with world exports dropping by 16 per cent in 2020.Meanwhile global exports of textiles grew by 16 per cent,driven by an increase in the production of personal protective equipment(PPE).Exports of medical products,including medicines,medical equipment and PPE,rose by more than 16 per cent,underscoring how trade has been a lifeline for access to critical goods through the pandemic,after the initial disruptions.Global value chains were severely disrupted during the first half of 2020.World exports of intermediate goods decreased by 10 per cent year-on-year.Trade was more resilient in value chains for high-tech goods and pharmaceutical/medical products.Trade in intermediate goods across countries started to recover in the third quarter of 2020.As of the first quarter of 2021,global trade in commercial services remained 9 per cent lower than in the same period in 2020.The travel sector was the most affected,as border closures,quarantine requirements,lockdowns,and other restrictions caused global travel exports to decline by 62 per cent in 2020.In contrast,demand for computer services was buoyant,reflecting the shift to remote work and the growth in digital platforms.Exports from least-developed countries(LDCs)were severely affected by the first wave of the pandemic in 2020.They suffered in particular from the drop in fuel prices(-60 per cent between January and April 2020)and the impact of restrictions on the travel industry.These two sectors represent the largest source of LDCs export earnings.LDCs fuel exports have started to slowly stabilize since early 2021 but services trade continues to be weighed down by persisting weakness in the travel and transport sectors.Leading indicators confirm positive signs of recovery in goods trade during the second quarter of 2021,but purchasing managers indices suggest weaker growth in services trade.As of May 2021,the number of international flights was just over half their pre-pandemic level.A full recovery for international travel,and for global trade in general,depends on rapid,equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines around the world.Indeed,with much of the world still unvaccinated,the emergence of new coronavirus variants is one of the leading threats to the economic and trade recovery.The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital transformation,including with regard to the international exchange of goods and services.This trend increases potential trading opportunities for micro,small and medium-sized enterprises(MSMEs)and women,provided they can overcome supply-side barriers.It also emphasizes the need to tackle the digital divide.From a statistical standpoint,there is a strong need to improve the measurement of digital trade.Finally,I would like to thank the statistical team and the other divisions across the WTO who worked on this report.We hope it provides useful insights to assist trade analysts and policymakers.Chapter I:Introduction7 10World trade overview10Merchandise trade 12Commercial services 15Leading traders18Least-developed countries(LDCs)19Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 8Chapter II11 9-40-30-20-10010203040Year-on-year percentage changeQ1Q2Q3Q42008Q1Q2Q3Q42009Q1Q2Q3Q42010Q1Q2Q3Q42011Q1Q2Q3Q42012Q1Q2Q3Q42013Q1Q2Q3Q42014Q1Q2Q3Q42015Q1Q2Q3Q42016Q1Q2Q3Q42017Q1Q2Q3Q42018Q1Q2Q3Q42019Q1Q2Q3Q42020Commercial servicesGoods The COVID-19 pandemic led to merchandise trade declining by 8 per cent and trade in commercial services contracting by 21 per cent year-on-year in 2020.The effect of COVID-19 on goods and services differed,with services more severely affected.Services declined by 30 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared with a fall of 23 per cent for goods in the same period.While lockdowns led to the cancellation of flights,holidays abroad,restaurant meals,and cultural/recreational activities,the demand for essential goods held up in all major economies.Unlike goods,services cannot be stockpiled,which means that most of the revenue losses are likely to be permanent.As businesses adjusted to new working conditions and vaccines began to be rolled out in the last quarter of 2020,trade in goods saw a recovery of 1 per cent compared with its pre-pandemic level in Q4 of 2019.World trade overviewTrade in goods and services experienced a deep slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemicChart 2.1 World trade in goods and commercial services,2010-2020,quarterly(Year-on-year percentage change)Source:WTO-UNCTAD-ITC.Note:Trade as average of exports and imports.World Trade Statistical Review 2021 10World trade in goods and services amounted to US$22 trillion in 2020,a 12 per cent decline compared with 2019.Trade in goods and services China China,the top exporter of merchandise trade in 2020,accounted for 13 per cent of the worlds total(up from 12 per cent in 2019),totalling US$2,323 billion.Manufactured goods Trade in manufactured goods represented 71 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2020,with a value of US$12.1 trillion.TravelTravel-including tourism and related services-plunged in 2020 as travel restrictions were imposed due to the pandemic.World travel exports dropped to US$549 billion compared with US$1,468 billion in 2019.Medical goodsThe share of medical goods in world merchandise trade grew from 5.3 per cent in 2019 to 6.6 per cent in 2020.0250500750100012501500175020002250250020202019201820172054231122892323US$billionOther goodsManufactured goods71%29%US$trillionGoodsCommercial services05101520253020202019201820172016161719181755665ExportsImports20162017201820192020US$billion1,2331,2121,3291,2981,4341,3911,4681,401549554Other goodsMedical goods93%7%Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Source:WTO estimates.Source:WTO-UNCTAD estimates.Souce:WTO-UNCTAD in cooperation with ITC and UNSD.Note:Average of exports and imports.Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-1911Merchandise tradeWorld merchandise trade All regions recorded declines in merchandise trade in 2020.Trade in nominal US dollar terms fell more sharply than trade in volume terms.The impact of the pandemic on merchandise trade differed across regions.Merchandise exports World exports of manufactured goods decreased by 5.2 per cent in 2020 while total merchandise exports declined by 7.7 per cent overall.Chart 2.2 World merchandise trade by region,2020(Annual percentage change)Annual percentage change-25-20-15-10-50Middle EastAfricaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth&Central AmericaCommonwealth of Independent States(CIS),including certain associate and former member StatesAsiaWorld-7.6-5.3-4.0-0.5-14.9-4.3-12.2-6.9-9.8-7.3-6.6-7.8-16.0-8.4-22.0-9.7Merchandise trade in volumeMerchandise trade in value-0.5%A decline of only 0.5 per cent in Asia in 2020 was due to COVID-19 having an earlier impact than in other regions,Asias rigorous management of the crisis and its role as a global supplier of consumer goods and medical products.05000100001500020000ManufacturingFuels and miningAgricultureTotal2020*2019201820172016201520142013201220112010-8%-5%-24%+1%*Estimate of product break-down.Source:WTO estimates.Note:Data including intra-trade of the European Union,excluding re-exports of Hong Kong,China-23.9%Fuels and mining products declined by 23.9 per cent in 2020,due to a big drop in energy prices and a fall in demand.Chart 2.3 Merchandise exports by major product group,2010-2020 (US$billion,annual percentage change)+0.9%Exports of agricultural products increased by 0.9 per cent in 2020 as many countries depended on food exports during the COVID-19 crisis.Source:WTO estimates.World Trade Statistical Review 2021 12World exports of manufactured goods World exports of automotive products were the most affected,among manufactured goods,by the pandemic while textiles saw a strong increase.Trade in medical goods Trade in medical goods registered growth of 16.3 per cent in 2020-compared with 4.7 per cent growth in 2019 when the pandemic was just starting.-20-15-10-505101520Automotive productsIron and steelClothingChemicalsOffice and telecom equipmentTextilesManufactured goods(total)Annual percentage change-5.2-0.4-9.1-14.9-16.416.03.901020304050Personal protective productsMedicineMedical suppliesMedical equipmentAll medical productsAnnual percentage change4.716.38.418.89.847.24.64.35.71.520192020+16.0%Due to demand for protective personal equipment,world exports of textiles increased the most among manufactured goods in 2020,growing by 16.0 per cent.-16.4%Exports of automotive products suffered from disruptions to production lines and weak demand in 2020,declining by 16.4 per cent.+47.2%Trade in medical goods increased significantly in 2020,with trade in personal protective products growing the most(+47.2 per cent).Chart 2.4 World merchandise exports of manufactured goods,2020 (Annual percentage change)Chart 2.5 World merchandise trade in medical goods,by product group,2019 and 2020(Annual percentage change)Source:WTO estimates.Note:Data including intra-trade of the European Union,excluding re-exports of Hong Kong,China.Source:WTO estimates.Chapter II:Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-1913All medicines52.2%Test kits3.4%All medical equipment13.1%Medical equipmentMedicineMedical suppliesPersonal protective productsFace masks11.9%Other med supplies17.3%Other PPP5.5%Year-on-year percentage change-50-40-30-20-1001020IG other industrial suppliesIG parts&accessories(transport equipment)IG parts&accessories(excl.transport equipment)IG food&beveragesTotal intermediate goods(IG)Q4Q3Q2Q12020-4.84.4-2.7-7.4-5.7-15.910-7.9-41.5-15.3-1.08.32.7-10.3-1.38.516.39.70.59.252%Medicine represented 52 per cent of world trade in medical goods in 2020.Chart 2.6 World merchandise trade in medical goods,by product group,2020 (Percentage share)Chart 2.7 World exports of intermediate goods,total and by main category(Year-on-year percentage change)Source:WTO estimates.Source:WTO estimates.+0.5%Exports of transport equipment saw a slight recovery in Q4 of 2020,increasing by 0.5 per cent year-on-year.The automotive sector was severely affected by COVID-19,with a decline in sales and supply chain disruption.+16.3%Exports of food and beverage intermediate goods increased b