飞轮电池生产计划的制定.docx-资源下载-咨信网-让知识获取变得高效

飞轮电池生产计划的制定.docx

1、飞轮电池生产计划的制定 1. 市场需求预测 2. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析 3. 生产方式的经济分析和比较 4. 制定综合生产计划 5. 生产能力的粗平衡 6. 制定主生产计划 7. 制定MRP,CRP 8. 生产能力的精平衡 9. 零件工序卡编制 10. 产品装配工序卡编制 1.市场需求预测（Market forecast）实验数据 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Year 1 9 18 24 21 Year 2 10 20 27 2

2、3 Year 3 11 22 29 26 根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST

3、LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 4 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 4 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 4 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 4 4 28.305 27.026

4、29.584 误差分析 R = 0.942 R-SQUARE = 0.8872 MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333 MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283 MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131 STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605 SEASONAL INDEX (1) =

5、0.500 SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000 SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333 SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167 预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下： Month 1 2 3 4 Demand forecast 12 24 32 29 方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测预测结果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)

6、 PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 13 26.091 14.974 37.208 14 27.028 15.911 38.145 15 27.965 16.848 39.082 16

7、 28.902 17.785 40.019 误差分析：R = 0.500 R-SQUARE = 0.2501 MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303 MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369 MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0 STANDARD ERROR (sigmas

8、ubyx) IS = 6.1354 从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。 2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis) 零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程生产提前期 1 2 3 4 5 MLF-03 外壳 Q235-A 锻造车削钻孔、扩孔 1 MLF-05 外转子电机套筒 Q235-A 锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔 2 MLF-11 底板 Q235-A 锻造车削

9、钻孔、扩孔 1 MLF-12 电器定位板铝合金铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔 2 MLF-07-03 电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割 2 MLF-07-04 电磁铁铁芯 DW314-50 锻造 1 MLF-07-05 电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精铣钻孔、扩孔精车 2 MLF-07-06 电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔 1 MLF-09-01 盘片 45 铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、

10、扩孔 2 MLF-09-02 磁环电工纯铁模锻车削铣削 1 MLF-09-03 压环 45 铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔 2 3.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison) Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month) Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month) 所以每月最多生产28台。首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

11、Aggregate plan Month Aggregate demand Panned outputs Workers required Workers hired Workers laid off Level capacity with inventory 1 12 24 72 0 18 2 24 24 72 0 0 3 32 24 72 0 0 4 29 24 72 0 0 Matching demand 1 12 12 36 0 54 2 24 24 72 36 0 3 32 32 84

12、12 0 4 29 29 84 0 0 8 9 10 11 12 Inventory adding or subtraction Beginning inventory Ending inventory Average inventory per month Average inventory per year 12 10 22 16 16.875 0 22 22 22 (8) 22 14 18 (5) 14 9 11.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13、然后,计算两种方案的成本： 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Aggregate plan Total annual number of workers hired Total annual number of workers laid off Average annual inventory Annual hiring and layoff cost Annual inventory carrying cost Total annual s

14、ubtraction cost Total annual incremental operating cost Level capacity 0 18 16.875 1080 5332.5 0 6412.5 Matching demand 48 54 0 3720 0 (4+1)*1800 12720 备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matching demand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第

15、三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000＄再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下： Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5 Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120 相差的费用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =.5=1507.5。 Level capacity比Matching demand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班

16、每台成本是600*2.5=1500 外协：每台是1800 因为对于matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500 通过外协和加班两者的比较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到Level capacity的生产方式比Matching demand生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matching demand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Level capacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择Level capacity

17、生产方式。 4.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Aggregate plan Month Aggregate demand Panned outputs Workers required Workers hired Workers laid off Level capacity with inventory 1 12 24 72 0 18 2 24 24 72 0 0 3 32 24 72 0 0 4 29 24 72 0 0 5.生产能力

18、粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning) 生产能力粗平衡 Month final assembly hours 1 2 3 4 Production 24 24 24 24 Final assembly hours 4200 4200 4200 4200 Load(hours) 4200 4200 4200 4200 Capacity(hours) 4900 4900 4900 4900 生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。 6制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule) Le

19、vel Capacity：主生产计划 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Total demand 12 24 32 29 Beginning inventory 10 22 22 14 Required production 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Endi

20、ng inventory 22 22 14 9 7制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning) 7.1 MRP制定 0 1 2 数量 MLF-00 1 MLF-03 1 MLF-05 1 MLF-07 1 MLF-07-03 3 MLF-07-04 3 MLF-07-05 3 MLF-07-06 6 MLF-09 1

21、 MLF-09-01 1 MLF-09-02 1 MLF-09-03 1 MLF-11 1 MLF-12 各个零件选择用Lot For Lot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得： *** MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *** ============================================================================== PROBLEM NAME: Untitled ==================

22、 Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size 00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL ---------------------------------------------

23、 Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts

24、 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Plan

25、ned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14

26、 15 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0

27、 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 -----------------------

28、 ============================================================================== Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size 03 1 1 0

29、 0 0 LFL ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 4

30、 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned O

31、rder Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 **** RUSH ORDER **** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------

32、 Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts

33、 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planne

34、d Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 **** RUSH ORDER **** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================================================== Item Level Lead On Safety

35、 Already Lot Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size 05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

36、 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0

37、 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 **** RUSH ORDER **** --------

38、 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------

39、 Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 6 6 6

40、 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 **** RUSH ORDER **** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ =====

41、 Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size 0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL --------------------------------

42、 Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled R

43、eceipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6

44、 6 Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 9 10 11 12

45、 13 14 15 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0

46、 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 ----------

47、 ============================================================================== Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size 0703 2

48、2 0 0 0 LFL ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross Requiremen

49、ts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18

50、18 Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 **** RUSH ORDER **** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------

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