石油2024—分析和预测至2030年.pdf

Oil2024Analysis and forecast to 2030The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYOil 2024 Abstract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Energy supply security remains a central pillar of the global policy agenda as international oil trade flows are upended by wide-ranging sanctions on Russia and attacks on tankers transiting the critical Red Sea shipping corridor.At the same time,Asias growing structural shortfall in crude and oil products and the ever-expanding supply surplus in the Atlantic Basin are creating new trade routes in the global oil market.This eastward shift to non-OECD Asia,especially China and India,is coinciding with a multitude of new challenges driving oil market activity as the energy transition gathers pace.Increased use of EVs,emerging clean energy technologies and more expansive efficiency policies are combining to chart a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand,plateauing towards the end of our 2023-2030 forecast period.Oil 24,the IEAs medium-term outlook,explores these critical developments and their impact on the global oil market.Oil 2024 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2030.The report provides detailed analysis and forecasts of oil demand fundamentals across fuels,sectors and regions.It also outlines projected supply from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world.Our findings provide compelling insights on spare production capacity,product supply and trade flows,as well as the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids(NGLs)in this era of petrochemical-driven demand growth.Oil 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division(OIMD)of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security.Toril Bosoni,head of OIMD,led the analysis and editing of the report.The principal authors are,in alphabetical order,Yuya Akizuki,Alexander Bressers,Joel Couse,Ciarn Healy,Peg Mackey,David Martin,Jacob Messing,Jeremy Moorhouse and Jenny Thomson.Ramiz Farishta and Julien Canu provided statistical support and essential research assistance.Keisuke Sadamori,director of the IEAs Directorate of Energy Markets and Security,provided expert guidance and advice.Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorial and publishing support.Diane Munro carried editorial responsibility.Lorenzo Squillace designed the cover.The report benefited greatly from valuable insights and feedback provided by senior management and other colleagues from across the IEA,including Laura Cozzi,Paolo Frankl,Tim Gould,Farrah Boularas,Leonardo Collina,Jrme Hilaire,Tae-Yoon Kim,Christophe McGlade,Rebecca McKimm,Apostolos Petropoulos,Courtney Turich and Arturo Regalado.The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launch support.Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen and his team;Curtis Brainard,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Grace Gordon,Julia Horowitz,Rob Stone,Clara Vallois and Lucile Wall.Oil 2024 Table of contents PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.6 Demand.11 Global summary.11 Fundamentals.16 Road fuel demand approaching peak.20 Efficiencies slow jet and marine fuel growth.25 Oil displacement in power generation.27 Petrochemicals lead growth.29 Demand developments by region.35 Supply.47 Global summary.47 Investment and exploration.51 OPEC+supply.58 Non-OPEC+supply.70 Refining and trade.86 Global summary.86 Refining capacity.97 Regional developments.101 Product balances and trade.117 Natural Gas Liquids.124 Global summary.124 Ethane markets.127 LPG markets.129 C5+from fractionation.131 Biofuels.132 Government policies support biofuels growth.132 Ethanol feedstock demand remains steady.133 Tables.135 Abbreviations and acronyms.148 Units of measure.149 List of boxes Non-OECD price controls limit pass-through of market prices to retail.19 Chinese capacity and US NGLs reshaping global markets.34 Chinese refined product reporting may overstate fuel growth.45 Shale price sensitivity scenarios.74 Indian refineries set for continued growth.114 Oil 2024 Executive summary PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Global oil markets navigate a challenging landscape Global oil markets will need to traverse myriad challenges in the medium-term as structural shifts reshape oil demand and trade flows,while rising oil supplies could potentially weigh on prices through the end of the decade.Divergent regional economic trajectories and the accelerating deployment of clean and energy-saving technologies are combining to progressively slow the pace of oil demand growth,with a plateau emerging in the final years of our forecast,which runs to 2030.Emerging economies in Asia,particularly China and India,account for all of global demand growth.By contrast,oil demand in advanced economies falls sharply.Rising world oil supplies,led by non-OPEC+producers,are expected to surpass forecast demand from 2025 onwards.Mirroring demands break with long-term trends,a front-loaded build in oil production capacity is forecast to lose momentum and swing into contraction towards the end of our medium-term outlook.A surge in natural gas liquids(NGLs)and condensates will account for 45%of new capacity increases over the forecast period.In a major shift in strategy,Saudi Arabia has put on hold its planned crude oil capacity increase and will now focus on expanding natural gas liquids and condensates,which aligns with its efforts to boost domestic gas supply.It may also reflect an acknowledgment of the rapidly building surplus in global crude oil production capacity.The rise of petrochemicals as the main pillar of global demand growth largely tracks the substantial increase in global supply of NGLs,which are instrumental in their production.At the same time,these changes will also create new challenges for refiners as demand for refined products is displaced by non-refined products such as NGLs and biofuels.Non-refined fuels are set to capture a staggering three-quarters of projected global demand growth over the 2023-2030 period.Moreover,refiners will need to reconfigure their product slates to meet divergent trends for distillates amid reduced consumption as the energy transition accelerates.This is especially the case in road transport fuels as EVs rapidly increase their market share.Amid all these structural changes to supply and demand patterns,the global oil market outlook faces further uncertainties from weaker macroeconomic expectations,new government policies and regulations to fast-track the energy transition,and an unprecedented level of investment to scale up more efficient technologies.Oil 2024 Executive summary PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.While the challenges are formidable,the industry has consistently proved its adaptability to dramatic supply and demand changes,including from the energy crisis brought on by Russias invasion of Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic before that.Surplus global supply capacity will reach unprecedented levels by 2030 A ramping up of world oil production capacity,led by the United States and other producers in the Americas,is expected to outstrip demand growth over the 2023-2030 forecast period and inflate the worlds spare capacity cushion to levels that are unprecedented,barring the Covid-19 period.Total supply capacity rises by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030,a staggering 8 mb/d above projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d.OPEC+spare crude production capacity and implied total oil stock build,2016-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Projections based on the current OPEC+supply agreement.OPEC+countries are crude oil only.Assumes Iran and Russia remain under sanctions.Implied oil stock builds include total oil.Such a massive cushion could upend the current OPEC+market management strategy aimed at supporting prices.For now,the producer alliance has laid out a roadmap for unwinding extra voluntary cuts of up to 2.2 mb/d from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025.But this outlook is subject to their caveat that the production increases can be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.A lower price environment would ultimately challenge the US shale industry,traditionally the fastest respondent to changing market circumstances.How the industry will adapt and adjust to the new supply landscape will have wide-ranging consequences for producers and consumers globally through the remainder of the decade and beyond.0 2 4 6 8 102016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030mb/d Implied oilstock build Off mkt due tosanctions Other OPEC+Iraq UAE Saudi ArabiaOil 2024 Executive summary PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.World oil demand tempered by clean energy transition Based on todays market conditions and policies,global oil demand will level off at around 106 mb/d towards the end of the decade amid the accelerating transition to clean energy technologies.Surging EV sales and continued efficiency improvements of vehicles,and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector,will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.Total oil demand is nevertheless forecast to rise by 3.2 mb/d between 2023 and 2030,supported by increased use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the booming petrochemical sectorIndeed,consumption of naphtha,liquified petroleum gas(LPG)and ethane will climb by 3.7 mb/d over the forecast period,fuelled also by growth in LPG use for clean cooking.World oil demand dominated by growth in petrochemical feedstocks IEA.CC BY 4.0.Growth will be dominated by Asian economies,especially India and China,as oil demands pivot to emerging markets continues.Demand from the two Asian economic powerhouses will develop in very different ways,however.In China,growth is set to be driven by the petrochemical sector as rapid deployment of clean energy technologies and massive infrastructure investments in high-speed rail blunt demand for transport fuels.In India,transport fuels will defy the global trend,rising sharply.Significant gains will also come from other emerging and developing economies in Asia.By contrast,demand in advanced economies will continue its decades-long decline,falling from 45.7 mb/d in 2023 to 42.7 mb/d by 2030.Apart from during the pandemic,the last time demand was this low was in 1991.Over that same time period,oil demand from emerging and developing economies will have increased by a factor of 2.5.70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 11020172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030mb/dOthersBiofuelsPetrochemical FeedstocksTotalOil demand,2017-2030-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Growth in oil demand,2022-2030Oil 2024 Executive summary PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Upstream investments and oil supply on the rise In line with the ascendancy of petrochemicals as the anchor of global oil demand growth,45%of the supply capacity increase over the forecast period comes from NGLs and condensates.While Saudi Arabia has shelved its planned crude capacity increase from 12 mb/d to 13 mb/d,its development of the massive Jafurah gas field will move ahead.This will result in a substantial ramping up of gas liquids output of almost 1 mb/d by 2030,volumes that are not subject to OPEC+quotas.Strong gains in US NGLs are also expected.Total NGLs and condensates are projected to rise by 2.7 mb/d from 2023 to 2030.By comparison,crude oil production capacity is forecast to increase by 2.6 mb/d over the same period,while biofuels account for 620 kb/d of the 6 mb/d total.Non-OPEC+producers will continue to lead the capacity build,accounting for 4.6 mb/d,or 76%of the net increase.The United States alone makes up 2.1 mb/d of the non-OPEC+gains,while Brazil,Guyana,Canada and Argentina contribute a further 2.7 mb/d.As the sanctioned project queue fizzles out towards the end of our forecast,growth stalls in the United States and Canada while Brazil and Guyana shift into decline based on current plans.However,should companies swiftly approve additional projects that are already on the drawing board,an incremental 1.3 mb/d of non-OPEC+capacity could become operational by 2030.Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates(UAE)and Iraq lead a 1.4 mb/d rise in OPEC+oil capacity as African and Asian members post declines.The UAE and Iraq are raising crude oil capacity while Saudi Arabia is poised for a significant increase NGL and condensates supply.Capacity in Russia is expected to show only a marginal decline despite international sanctions as the giant Vostok project ramps up,helping to offset losses at mature oil fields.The boost in supply follows a steady increase in upstream investments.Global upstream capital expenditures rose by 13%to an eight-year high of USD 538 billion in 2023 and are on track to increase by another 7%this year.Refiners adjust to slowing demand for refined fuels Global refining capacity is forecast to rise by 3.3mb/d from 2023 to 2030,well below historical trends.Even with the moderate expansion in capacity,the increase outpaces the call on refined products over the period.Refiners will need to progressively modify their product output to meet divergent trends for distillates as gasoline demand falls amid an increase in the market share of electric vehicles while jet fuel consumption rises.In addition,non-refined fuels such as NGLs and biofuels further undermine demand for refined product supplies and the need for additional refining capacity.Non-refined fuel products are set to capture more than 75%of projected demand growth over the 2023-2030 period.Oil 2024 Executive summary PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.This significant rise in non-refinery product supplies will add pressure on operating rates and refinery profitability,especially in mature demand centres.That raises the prospect of further capacity closures by the end