2024年美国船级社碳中和路径和过渡技术展望.pdf

CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS and TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESWhile ABS uses reasonable efforts to accurately describe and update the information in this publication,ABS makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy,currency or completeness.ABS assumes no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this publication.To the extent permitted by applicable law,everything in this publication is provided without warranty of any kind,either express or implied,including,but not limited to,the implied warranties of merchantability,fitness for a particular purpose,or non-infringement.In no event will ABS be liable for any damages whatsoever,including special,indirect,consequential or incidental damages or damages for loss of profits,revenue,or use,whether brought in contract or tort,arising out of or connected with this publication or the use or reliance upon any of the content or any information contained herein.Section 1 Introduction .21.1 Regulatory Updates.21.2 Publication Overview.10Section 2 Energy Transition Outlook .132.1 Introduction.132.2 Long-Term Energy Forecasts.132.3 Cargo Demand and Fuel Consumption.182.4 Geopolitical Impacts to Maritime Decarbonization.332.5 Fuel Mix Forecast.36Section 3 Market Outlook and Ecosystem Capacity .403.1.Orderbook Status .403.2.Retrofit Status and Outlook.523.3.Shipyard Capacity.57Section 4 Fuel Pathways and Technologies .654.1.Introduction.654.2.Alternative Fuel Pathways.654.3.Fuel Pathways Performance.774.4.Further Insights into Carbon Neutral Fuels .834.5.EETs Uptake Rate .884.6.Alternative Fuels and the Human Element.914.7 Appendix.97Section 5 Key Transformation Technologies .985.1.Introduction.985.2.Onboard Carbon Capture and Storage(OCCS)Systems.985.3.Wind Assisted Propulsion.1095.4.Beyond the Engine.115Section 6 Offshore Industry Insights .1276.1 Introduction.1276.2 Offshore Units Market Updates.1296.3 Emerging Offshore Value Chains.1346.4 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Impacts.137Section 7 Conclusion and Key Takeaways .1402|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSECTION 1The maritime industry is currently undergoing an energy transition,which is being driven by the imperative to mitigate climate change and an ever-changing regulatory environment.An unprecedented transition from conventional fossil fuels to alternative energy sources and the implementation of cutting-edge technologies define the sectors endeavors.A number of initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions have been implemented or are in the process of being implemented in accordance with the revised GHG Strategy of the International Maritime Organization(IMO).Furthermore,ongoing developments of supplementary measures will support regional or national objectives.The necessity for decarbonization is driven by the numerous statutory requirements enforced on the industry.1.1 Regulatory UpdatesThe regulatory landscape governing maritime decarbonization is characterized by a complex interplay between international mandates led by the IMO and regional initiatives that seek to address the unique challenges and opportunities within specific jurisdictions.The IMOs adoption of a revised strategy in 2023 to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around 2050 marks a significant commitment to leading the industry toward a more sustainable direction.This strategy not only sets ambitious targets but also outlines a series of short-,mid-and long-term measures designed to facilitate the transition to low-carbon practices.This target requires a paradigm shift in operational,technological and fuel utilization across the sector.Moreover,the regional regulatory landscape is evolving,with entities like the European Union(EU)integrating maritime emissions into its Emissions Trading System(ETS),and the United States focusing on renewable energy and clean technologies.These regulatory frameworks,while distinct in their approaches,underline a global consensus toward a sustainable maritime future.The path to decarbonization,however,contains several challenges,including technological constraints,the need for significant investments,and the global nature of maritime operations that demands cohesive international regulatory frameworks.The introduction of novel propulsion methods and alternative fuels strategies stands at the forefront of this transition.However,the industrys journey is also marked by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges that could impact operational and regulatory trends.As we look through 2024 and beyond,understanding the connection between current and future regulatory landscapes and their impact on maritime decarbonization becomes increasingly important.SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|31.1.1 IMO Latest Developments:MEPC 81 The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee(MEPC)held its 81st session from March 18 to 22,2024,and included a program of regulatory developments that will shape the maritime sector for years to come.Key to the IMOs strategy are the indicative checkpoints set for 2030 and 2040,designed to ensure that the maritime industry is on track to meet its 2050 emissions reduction target.These checkpoints highlight the necessity of rapid adoption of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies and fuels,alongside significant improvements in energy efficiency onboard vessels.The strategy also highlights the role of mid-term measures,including carbon pricing and GHG fuel standards,which are critical to creating the economic and regulatory incentives that the industry needs in order to invest in cleaner alternatives.During the period between MEPC 80 and 81,the Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships(ISWG-GHG)worked on further developing:a.The candidate mid-term measures.b.The life cycle GHG assessment(LCA)framework.c.Consider proposals related to onboard carbon dioxide(CO2)capture.Further consideration of the development of candidate mid-term measure(s)The MEPC is advancing in accordance with the established work plan for the development of mid-term measures,anticipating the results of the Comprehensive Impact Assessment(CIA)set to be unveiled during MEPC 82(September 2024).This assessment aims to estimate the impact of the measures currently under consideration with particular attention paid to the needs of developing countries,especially Small Island Developing States(SIDS)and Least Developed Countries(LDCs).The following eight candidate mid-term measures are currently considered:1.GHG Fuel Standard(GFS)with its Flexibility Compliance Mechanism as the technical element,in combination with a GHG pricing mechanism covering all GHG emissions as the economic element.2.International Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund(IMSF&F)Mechanism,with technical elements and economic elements integrated into a single measure.3.Feebate Mechanism,developed as an economic element separately from a technical element and comprising of a mandatory contribution on GHG emissions and reward for zero emission vessels by the Zero Emission Shipping Fund(ZESF),to be complemented by the GFS as technical element.4.Universal mandatory GHG levy as economic measure,acting in combination with a simplified Global GFS,as technical measure.5.Simplified Global GFS with an energy pooling compliance mechanism,to be developed as a separate technical measure together with a separate maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism.6.ZESF and Fund and Reward(Feebate)mechanism to be adopted as a separate maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism as economic measure,in addition to a Global GFS as technical measure.7.Green Balance Mechanism,designed to work as part of an integrated measure or incorporated into complementary,but separate technical and economic measures.8.Maritime GHG Pricing Mechanism as a direct per-tonne-of-CO2-equivalent regulatory charge on the Tank-to-Wake(TtW)GHG emissions reported by each ship,determined by adjusting a universal GHG price signal according to each fuel type and pathways Well-to-Wake(WtW)emissions profile.Table 1.1 presents the different mid-term measures currently under consideration by the IMO.4|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESProposals for Mid-Term MeasuresDescriptionTechnical MeasureEconomic MeasureGHG Fuel Standard(GFS)with its Flexibility Compliance MechanismIncentivizes the uptake of sustainable low-and zero-carbon fuels,offering flexibility mechanisms such as rewarding of overcompliance for early movers via Surplus Reward Units(SRUs)and alternative compliance options such as GFS Remedial Units(GRUs).XInternational Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund(IMSF&F)mechanismAims at the promotion of sustainable marine fuels by setting up an annual GHG fuel intensity target for shipping,while providing flexible compliance approaches(pooling,banking and fund contribution/reward).XXFeebate MechanismComprises of a mandatory contribution on GHG emissions and reward for zero emission vessels by the ZESF,to be complemented by the GFS as technical element.XUniversal mandatory GHG levyA mandatory levy on all GHG emissions from international shipping will address the price differential between business-as-usual emission-based technology options,including fuels and decarbonize alternatives.XSimplified Global GFS with an energy pooling compliance mechanismA performance standard,independent of fuel type,which includes a voluntary energy pooling compliance mechanism and may help increase the production and uptake of all types of low-,near-zero and zero-GHG fuels.XZero Emission Shipping Fund(ZESF)Funds collected from mandatory contributions by ships per tonne of CO2 equivalent emitted will be utilized to provide rewards to ships using eligible zero/near-zero GHG fuels through a“feebate”mechanism narrowing the cost gap with conventional fuels.XGreen Balance MechanismUses a cost balancing approach to reconcile emissions reductions with economic realities.It can be fully integrated with a GHG fuel-intensity standard.XMaritime GHG Pricing Mechanism A direct per-tonne-of CO2 equivalent regulatory charge on the TtW GHG emissions reported by each ship,determined by adjusting a universal GHG price signal according to each fuel type and pathways WtW emissions profile.XTable 1.1:Mid-term measures currently under consideration.SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|5The Working Group agreed on progressing the development of the basket of measures using the following key five elements:1.Goal-based marine fuel standard regulating the phased reduction of the marine fuels GHG intensity.2.Flexible compliance strategies and relevant reporting and verification requirements.3.(Other)GHG emissions pricing mechanisms.4.Revenue collection and distribution.5.Assessment of the remaining work and indicative planning in accordance with the timelines set out in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy(See Figure 1.1).Further development of the life cycle GHG assessment(LCA)framework The Working Group recommended to the Committee the adoption of the draft MEPC resolution on the 2024 Guidelines on life cycle GHG intensity of marine fuels(LCA Guidelines).It is clear to all stakeholders that there is still a need for continuous scientific review of the LCA Guidelines.In relation to TtW methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)emission factors and slip values,the Working Group considered a plethora of proposals focusing,inter alia,on the different methodologies and their accuracy in quantifying ship-level methane slip and providing an overview of potential options for certification of TtW methane and nitrous oxide emissions and a default methane slip(Cslip)value from engines/energy converters.The development of a framework for the measurement and verification of TtW emissions of methane,nitrous oxide and other GHGs along with associated engine certification issues in the context of the further development of the LCA Guidelines,is widely accepted as the next step forward.Proposals related to Onboard Carbon CaptureThe Working Group considered proposals related to onboard CO2 capture,focusing on the need for the Committee to initiate as soon as possible the study on onboard carbon capture and storage(OCCS)systems,and developing regulations covering the transportation,storage and disposal of residues and emissions these systems could produce.Following consideration,the Group noted the broad support to further continue consideration of proposals related to onboard CO2 capture and,in this regard,invited the Committee to instruct the Working Group of Air Pollution and Energy Efficiency to develop a work plan for the development of a regulatory framework for the use of onboard CO2 capture with the exception of matters related to accounting of CO2 captured and the consideration of system boundaries of the LCA Guidelines in relation to onboard CO2 capture that should be considered in the context of further development of the LCA Guidelines.20242028MEPC 82Autumn2024MEPC 83Spring 2025ExtraordinaryMEPCAutumn2025MEPC 84Spring 2026MEPC 85Autumn2026Early2027Final report on mid-term measures candidatesApproval of measures and review of the short-term measures to be completed by January 1,2026Adoption of measuresFollow-ups and preparations for the entry into force of measures(MEPC 84 and 85)Entry into force(16 months after adoption)Figure 1.1:Timeline for the development of IMO mid-term measures.6|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES1.1.2 IMO Mid-Term Measures:The Road AheadContinuing the output from ISWG-GHG 16,the Committee considered how to advance the development of the mid-term basket of measures.The Committee agreed that the possible way forward would be to identify a common structure of the legal framework for the basket of candidate measures to advance further the work of the Organization.During discussions,several delegations supported that it would be premature to rule out any of the candidate proposals without having the outcome of the comprehensive impact assessment and that the common structure should not prejudge any future changes or possible outcomes of further negotiations.In this regard,the Committee approved the possible outline of the“IMO Net-Zero Framework”with the possible amendments to MARPOL Annex VI,which can be used as a starting point for consolidating the different proposals into a possible common structure.The Committee agreed on establishing the Fifth GHG Expert Workshop(GHG-EW 5)on the further development of the basket of mid-term measures.During discussions,several discussions supported that the GHG-EW 5 should primarily focus on increasing understanding of the preliminary findings of the CIA for a broader group of delegates than those engaged in the Steering Committee,whereas others expressed that the GHG-EW 5 should not engage in any policy negotiations but provide relevant information to the Committee and/or Steering Committee.Following consideration of all the views expressed,the Committee